25 November 2014
2014- n° 265In November 2014, the business climate improved slightly in the wholesale trade Bi-monthly survey of wholesaling - November 2014
According to the managers surveyed in November 2014, the business climate in the wholesale trade sector improved slightly. The corresponding composite indicator has risen by four points since September, but remains below its long-term average.
- Total wholesale trade
- A less grim past activity
- Less pessimistic forecasts
- Statu quo about employment
- Still very low prices
- Raw agricultural products and live animals
- Food products and beverages
- Household goods
- Capital goods in information and communication
- Other industrial capital goods
- Other specialised wholesale trade
Total wholesale trade
According to the managers surveyed in November 2014, the business climate in the wholesale trade sector improved slightly. The corresponding composite indicator has risen by four points since September, but remains below its long-term average.
The turning-point indicator increased significantly and has gone back in the favourable area.
A less grim past activity
Fewer wholesalers than in the last survey have noted a decline in their past sales as in their received merchandises. They have been less pessimistic as well concerning their foreign exchanges, export sales and merchandises received from abroad. However, each of the four balances has stayed still under its average.
Less pessimistic forecasts
Fewer business leaders than in September have expected a decrease in their activity: each of the balances concerning ordering intentions, in France or abroad, and general outlook, has progressed slightly, but stayed below its average. Nevertheless, shipments abroad have remained dull.
Statu quo about employment
Nearly as many wholesalers as for the last survey have declared a decline in their workforce, over the last and over the next few months.
Still very low prices
The uninterrupted fall in the balances of opinion concerning past and expected prices, seen since the January 2014 survey, has stopped, but the balances are still very low.
graphiquegraph_indclimaff – Composite indicator
graphiquegraph_indretournf – Turning-point indicator
- Note: close to 1 (respectively -1), this indicator points to a favourable short-term economic situation (respectively unfavourable).
tableautab_cgens – Total wholesale trade
| MOY* | May 14 | July 14 | Sept. 14 | Nov. 14 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Composite indicator | 100 | 99 | 97 | 91 | 95 |
| General outlook | –25 | –23 | –36 | –45 | –36 |
| Sales | –14 | –20 | –20 | –30 | –24 |
| export sales | –15 | –14 | –18 | –26 | –18 |
| Received merchandise | –9 | –14 | –17 | –22 | –15 |
| received from abroad | –10 | –10 | –11 | –15 | –14 |
| Ordering intentions | –15 | –15 | –17 | –23 | –18 |
| ordering from abroad | –15 | –16 | –14 | –20 | –17 |
| Shipments abroad | –16 | –13 | –16 | –19 | –20 |
| Current stock | 8 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Past workforce | –1 | –4 | –6 | –9 | –7 |
| Expected workforce | –3 | 0 | –6 | –5 | –7 |
| Cash position | –10 | –5 | –8 | –7 | –7 |
| Past selling prices | 8 | –8 | –10 | –22 | –21 |
| Expecting selling prices | 16 | 0 | –4 | –10 | –10 |
- * : average since September 1979
- Source : French business survey in the wholesale trade - Insee
Raw agricultural products and live animals
According to the wholesalers of this sector, past sales to France and abroad have significantly risen. Each of both corresponding balances has reached its level of September 2012, above its long-term average. Ordering intentions have progressed too and gone up over their mean level.
Food products and beverages
In the food and drink sector, the managers have noted a recovering in their past sales and in their foreign exchanges.
Household goods
In the household good sector, past activity in France and abroad has continued to decline. However, the ordering intentions balance has increased and gone back to its average.
Capital goods in information and communication
Fewer business leaders than in September have declared a drop in their past sales and in their ordering intentions. Nevertheless, each of both balances has remained under its mean level. Besides, these wholesalers have been more pessimistic about their foreign exchanges than they were since May.
Other industrial capital goods
In industrial capital goods wholesale, past activity, as expected activity, have remained deteriorated.
Other specialised wholesale trade
In this sector, wholesalers have noted a stabilisation in their past sales at a low level, but a significant rally of their export sales: the corresponding balance is over its average from now on.
graphiquegraph_sect – Past activity (sales) in capital goods
tableautab_cgsect – Wholesaler sectors
| MOY* | May 14 | July 14 | Sept. 14 | Nov. 14 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw agricultural products and live animals | |||||
| Sales | –12 | –10 | –14 | –19 | –5 |
| Export sales | –15 | –14 | –33 | –14 | –2 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | –9 | –14 | –26 | –14 | –11 |
| Ordering intentions | –12 | –10 | –18 | –18 | –9 |
| Current stock | 5 | –5 | –2 | 11 | 8 |
| Food products and beverages | |||||
| Sales | –15 | –11 | –6 | –27 | –10 |
| Export sales | –12 | –12 | –18 | –32 | –24 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | –13 | –12 | 5 | –24 | –10 |
| Ordering intentions | –11 | –12 | –15 | –14 | –14 |
| Current stock | 5 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 6 |
| Household goods | |||||
| Sales | –10 | –15 | –8 | –19 | –22 |
| Export sales | –12 | 1 | 4 | –9 | –19 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | –6 | –13 | –9 | –8 | –6 |
| Ordering intentions | –14 | –13 | –14 | –20 | –13 |
| Current stock | 12 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 5 |
| Capital goods in information and communication | |||||
| Sales | –9 | –16 | –8 | –23 | –12 |
| Export sales | –13 | –4 | –8 | –3 | –11 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | –7 | 11 | 1 | –8 | –13 |
| Ordering intentions | –10 | 1 | –2 | –27 | –16 |
| Current stock | 8 | 6 | 23 | –1 | –1 |
| Other industrial capital goods | |||||
| Sales | –16 | –27 | –39 | –43 | –42 |
| Export sales | –21 | –13 | –24 | –38 | –33 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | –11 | –7 | –19 | –22 | –23 |
| Ordering intentions | –22 | –25 | –30 | –35 | –29 |
| Current stock | 12 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 12 |
| Other specialised wholesale trade | |||||
| Sales | –18 | –35 | –38 | –40 | –40 |
| Export sales | –19 | –40 | –26 | –39 | –14 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | –13 | –17 | –17 | –12 | –18 |
| Ordering intentions | –19 | –20 | –17 | –28 | –25 |
| Current stock | 6 | 9 | 7 | 8 | 3 |
- * : average since September 1979
- Source: French business survey in the wholesale trade - Insee
Pour en savoir plus
Time series : Wholesale trade
