24 February 2015
2015- n° 39In February 2015, the business climate is almost stable in services Monthly survey of services - February 2015
According to business managers, the economic situation in services is almost stable in February 2015. The business climate composite indicator decreases by one point and stands at 91, still below its long-term average (100). The turning point indicator still indicates a favorable dynamic.
All services
According to business managers, the economic situation in services is almost stable in February 2015. The business climate composite indicator decreases by one point and stands at 91, still below its long-term average (100). The turning point indicator still indicates a favorable dynamic.
The balance on the general outlook, which relates the assessment of business leaders over their whole sector, remains deteriorated.
graphiqueGraph1 – Composite indicator
graphiquegraph_retourn – Turning point indicator
- Note: close to 1 (respectively -1), this indicator indicates a favorable short-term economic situation (respectively unfavorable).
The balance of opinion on past activity is unchanged and remains below its long-term average. Business leaders’ expectations on activity and demand are more pessimistic than in January. The corresponding balances remain clearly below their long-term average.
The balances of opinion on past and expected employment have recovered but they remain below their long-term average.
tableauTable_quarter – Economic outlook in the services sector
| Average* | Nov. 14 | Dec. 14 | Jan. 15 | Feb. 15 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Composite indicator | 100 | 93 | 92 | 92 | 91 |
| General outlook | –8 | –17 | –16 | –17 | –18 |
| Past activity | 2 | –3 | –4 | –9 | –9 |
| Expected activity | 2 | –4 | –8 | –6 | –7 |
| Expected demand | –1 | –9 | –9 | –8 | –10 |
| Business situation | –3 | –6 | –8 | –11 | –8 |
| Past selling prices | –4 | –8 | –11 | –10 | –13 |
| Expected selling prices | –2 | –10 | –12 | –13 | –9 |
| Past employment | 3 | –2 | –2 | –6 | –2 |
| except temporary work agencies | 1 | 0 | –1 | –5 | –1 |
| Expected employment | 2 | –1 | 0 | –6 | –2 |
| except temporary work agencies | –1 | –5 | –3 | –8 | –6 |
| Investments | |||||
| Past investments | 1 | –1 | –5 | –4 | –4 |
| Expected investments | 1 | –2 | 1 | 0 | –1 |
- * Average of the balances of opinion since 1988
- Source: Insee
graphiqueGraph2 – Activity
Road transport
In road freight and mail activities, the balance of opinion on past activity has recovered and comes closer to its long-term average. The balance on past employment has increased and stays above its long-term level. However, the balances of opinion on expected activity and demand have deteriorated again.
Accommodation and food service activities
In accommodation and food service activities, the balance of opinion on past activity remains low. Business leaders’ expectations on activity and employment over the next few months have deteriorated. The balance of opinion on expected demand is stable, slightly above its long-term average.
Information and communication
In information and communication, the balance of opinion on past activity has gone down again and deviates further from its long-term average. The balances on expected activity and demand are virtually stable and stay far below their long-term average.
Real estate
In real estate, the balance of opinion on past activity has dropped and falls below its long-term average. Business leader’s expectations on activity and demand are steady. The balances on past and expected employment stay at their long-term level.
Professional, scientific and technical activities
In professional, scientific and technical activities, the balances of opinion on past and expected activity remain deteriorated. The balance on expected demand has decreased and deviates further from its long-term average.
Administrative and support service activities
In administrative and support service activities, the balance of opinion on past activity has gone up slightly but stays well below its long-term average. The balances on expected activity and demand have decreased again. However, those on past and expected employment have recovered sharply, even if they remain below their long-term average.
graphiquegraph_bonus_ – Expected activity
tableauTable_det – Detailed data
| A21 | Average* | Nov. 14 | Dec. 14 | Jan. 15 | Feb. 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (H) Road transport | |||||
| Past activity | –8 | –7 | –18 | –16 | –10 |
| Expected activity | –10 | –8 | –10 | –20 | –24 |
| Expected demand | –13 | –9 | –17 | –23 | –26 |
| Past employment | –8 | –8 | –4 | –5 | –1 |
| Expected employment | –11 | –10 | –4 | –15 | –14 |
| (I) Accommodation and food service activities | |||||
| Past activity | –7 | 2 | –10 | –14 | –12 |
| Expected activity | –7 | –9 | –5 | –9 | –14 |
| Expected demand | –9 | –10 | –11 | –8 | –8 |
| Past employment | –4 | –5 | –2 | –8 | –7 |
| Expected employment | –6 | –19 | –9 | –13 | –18 |
| (J) Information and communication | |||||
| Past activity | 9 | –9 | 3 | –10 | –14 |
| Expected activity | 10 | –10 | –18 | –5 | –5 |
| Expected demand | 11 | –8 | –10 | 4 | 5 |
| Past employment | 6 | –4 | 0 | 2 | –3 |
| Expected employment | 11 | 5 | 1 | –5 | 1 |
| (L) Real estate activities | |||||
| Past activity | 7 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 2 |
| Expected activity | 7 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
| Expected demand | 1 | –4 | –1 | –4 | –4 |
| Past employment | 3 | –4 | 0 | –1 | 2 |
| Expected employment | 2 | 1 | –3 | 6 | 3 |
| (M) Professional, scientific and technical activities | |||||
| Past activity | –1 | –7 | –8 | –9 | –10 |
| Expected activity | –2 | –8 | –12 | –12 | –10 |
| Expected demand | –6 | –14 | –15 | –14 | –20 |
| Past employment | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Expected employment | 0 | –7 | –4 | –1 | 0 |
| (N) Administrative and support service activities | |||||
| Past activity | 6 | –3 | –11 | –11 | –8 |
| Expected activity | 5 | –1 | 3 | –4 | –5 |
| Expected demand | 3 | –4 | 1 | –7 | –9 |
| Past employment | 8 | 1 | –2 | –8 | 0 |
| Expected employment | 6 | 11 | 7 | –3 | 3 |
- * Average of the balances of opinion since 1988 (2006 for road transport)
Documentation
Methodology (2016) (pdf,158 Ko)
Pour en savoir plus
Time series : Economic outlook surveys – Services
