14 November 2012

2012- n° 278

The Consumer Price Index increased by 0.2% in October 2012; it rose by 1.9% year-on-year Consumer price index - final results - October 2012

The Consumer Price index (CPI) rose by 0.2% in October 2012, after a decline by 0.3% in September this year. The CPI annual inflation stands at 1.9% in October, as it was in September. Seasonally adjusted, CPI rose also by 0.2% in October (+1.9% year-on-year). Most of the upward pressure to the CPI in October came from a substantial increase in tobacco prices (+6.7% over a month; +9.9% year-on-year). Excluding tobacco, the CPI increased more moderately (+0.1% over a month; +1.7% year-on-year) and was mainly due to an acceleration of fresh food prices. Besides, the smaller rise in other food prices has been off-set by a new decline in energy prices (especially petroleum products prices). The slight increase in service prices in October has been also compensated by a decrease in manufactured good prices.

Food prices increased in October 2012, going up by 0.9% over a month and by 2.9% over a year. This acceleration is mainly due to a rise, partly seasonal, in fresh food. They grew by 4.9% in October (+10.2% year-on year), with a stronger hike in fresh fruit prices (+8.2%; +9.4% year-on-year) and also in fresh vegetable prices (+4.3%; +15.6% year-on-year). Excluding fresh products, food prices increased more moderately in October (+0.3% over a month; +1.9% year-on year). Most of the upward pressure came from meat (+0.7% over a month; +2,7% year-on-year). The rise in prices of the other non fresh foodstuffs remained smaller in October.

Energy prices declined again slightly in October (—0.5% after —0.3 % in September), but remained dynamic year-on-year (+5.1% in October). This decline came mainly from prices of petroleum products (—1.3% in October) otherwise they still increased sharply over a year (+5.3%). This drop was larger for motor fuel prices (1.4% in October, +4.2 % year-on-year) than for heating fuel prices (—1.0%; +10.7% year-on year). On the contrary, gas prices shot up in October (+1.7%; +7.9% year-on year) whereas those of electricity were stable (+3.2% year-on-year).

Service prices increased slightly in October (+0.1%; +1.5 % year-on-year). The most significant upward contribution to the change in the service CPI was due to the application of winter rates for collective heating. Seasonal price rises came also from air fares (+2.5%; in October) and from health service (+0.6%; +1.3% year-on-year). On the opposite, the most significant downward pressure of the service CPI came from the seasonal decrease in rents of holiday residence, restaurant and hotel prices in October (—3.0%; +3.8% year-on-year). Furthermore, prices of communications continued to go down in October (—0.7%; —12.4% year-on-year).

In October 2012, prices of manufactured products went down (—0.2%; +0.3% year-on-year). Most of the downward pressure came from a decline in new car prices (—0.9%; +1.8% year-on-year) because of promotions and from a seasonal decrease in flower and plant prices (—9.8%; —0.8% year-on-year) in October. On the opposite, upward pressures came from ends of promotion for bedroom furniture and furnishing (+1.6%; +1.2% year-on-year) and for major electric households appliances (+0.4%; —2.1% year-on-year). Prices of clothing and footwear rose slightly in October (+0.3%; +1.5% year-on-year). Finally, price drop of audio-visual, photographic and information processing equipment has continued (—0.6% in October ;—6.3% year-on-year).

Core inflation indicator (ISJ) slipped slightly in October 2012 (—0.1%). Over the year (between October 2012 and October 2011), it rose by 0.9% (after +1,2% year-on-year in September and +1.3% in August). The harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) rose by 0.2% in October 2012 (+2.1% year-on-year, after +2.2% in September).