8 February 2013

2013- n° 32

According to business leaders, in the manufacturing industry, investment would stay stable in 2013 Industrial investment survey - January 2013

Surveyed in January 2013, business managers estimated that investment in the manufacturing industry increased by 2% in 2012. They revised by one point upwards their previous expectations given last October.

For 2013, business managers in the manufacturing industry forecast that their investment would stay stable compared to 2012. They revised 2 points upwards their previous expectations given in October. This revision upwards concerns the manufacture of food products and beverages (+9 points) and the sector of electrical and electronic and machine equipment (+6 points). In this latter sector, capital expenditure would bounce back in 2013 (resp. +9% after -9% in 2012). On the other hand, industrial leaders in transport equipment confirmed that their investment would decline (-10% after +13% in 2012), with a significantly drop in the sector of motor vehicles (-21% after +20%). By contrast, business managers in the other manufacturing sectors expect a stability in their investment in 2013.

Between H1 and H2 2012, industrial leaders state an increase in their investment, contrary to what they anticipated last July. Their forecasts regarding the semestrial evolution of investment ease modestly in January. However, they still stay more numerous to expect a decrease than an increase in their investment between H1 2013 and H2 2012.

The investment revision indicator picks up and is going forward to zero. Based on investment amounts filled in at each survey by business leaders of manufacturing industry except those of manufacture of food products and beverages (C1) and of coke and refined petroleum products (C2), this indicator is well-correlated with quarterly growth fixed capital formation of non-financial enterprises. That may suggest a slight recovery of investment of these enterprises during Q1 2013.