According to business leaders, in the manufacturing industry, investment would stay stable in 2013Industrial investment survey - January 2013

Surveyed in January 2013, business managers estimated that investment in the manufacturing industry increased by 2% in 2012. They revised by one point upwards their previous expectations given last October.

Informations rapides
No 32
Paru le : 08/02/2013
Prochaine parution le : 06/02/2018 at 08:45 - January 2018

Surveyed in January 2013, business managers estimated that investment in the manufacturing industry increased by 2% in 2012. They revised by one point upwards their previous expectations given last October.

Graph1_ang – Annual nominal change in investment in the manufacturing industry

For 2013, business managers look forward to an investment stability

For 2013, business managers in the manufacturing industry forecast that their investment would stay stable compared to 2012. They revised 2 points upwards their previous expectations given in October. This revision upwards concerns the manufacture of food products and beverages (+9 points) and the sector of electrical and electronic and machine equipment (+6 points). In this latter sector, capital expenditure would bounce back in 2013 (resp. +9% after -9% in 2012). On the other hand, industrial leaders in transport equipment confirmed that their investment would decline (-10% after +13% in 2012), with a significantly drop in the sector of motor vehicles (-21% after +20%). By contrast, business managers in the other manufacturing sectors expect a stability in their investment in 2013.

Tableau 1 – Real annual investment growth in manufacturing industry

%
Real annual investment growth in manufacturing industry
NA* : (A17) and [A38] 2012 2013
forecast Oct.12 estimate Jan.13 forecast Oct.12 forecast Jan.13
C : Manufacturing industry 1 2 –2 0
(C1): Manufacture of food products and beverages 6 5 –3 6
(C3): Electrical and electronic equipment; machine equipment 0 –9 3 9
(C4): Manufacture of transport equipment 9 13 3 –10
[CL1]: Motor vehicles 25 20 –6 –21
(C5): Other manufacturing 0 0 –2 –1
  • How to read this table : In manufacturing industry, firms surveyed in January 2013 estimate a nominal investment increase of 10% in 2011 comparing to 2010. They forecast a nominal investment increase of 7% in 2012 comparing to 2011.
  • * The codes correspond to the level of aggregation (A17) and [A38] of the "NA" aggregate classification based on NAF rev.2.

Industrial leaders anticipate a decrease in their investment in H1 2013

Between H1 and H2 2012, industrial leaders state an increase in their investment, contrary to what they anticipated last July. Their forecasts regarding the semestrial evolution of investment ease modestly in January. However, they still stay more numerous to expect a decrease than an increase in their investment between H1 2013 and H2 2012.

The investment revision indicator recovers

The investment revision indicator picks up and is going forward to zero. Based on investment amounts filled in at each survey by business leaders of manufacturing industry except those of manufacture of food products and beverages (C1) and of coke and refined petroleum products (C2), this indicator is well-correlated with quarterly growth fixed capital formation of non-financial enterprises. That may suggest a slight recovery of investment of these enterprises during Q1 2013.

GraphIR_ang – Investment revision indicator*

Graph2_ang – Opinion of business leaders in the manufacturing industry regarding six-month change in investment (second estimation*)