12 December 2012

2012- n° 302

The Consumer Prices Index decreased by 0.2% in November 2012; it rose by 1.4% year-on-year Consumer price index - final results - november 2012

In November 2012, the Consumer Price index (CPI) decreased by 0.2%, after a rise by 0.2% in October. Over a year, the CPI rose by 1.4% (+1.9% in October). Seasonally adjusted, the CPI went down by 0.1% in November (compared to an increase by 0.2% in October) and grew by +1.4% compared to November 2011. The largest downward pressures on the change in the CPI of November resulted mainly from a new decrease in energy prices (especially a new drop in petroleum product prices.) It reflected also the continuation of the marked decrease in telecom prices and a drop in aerial transport fares. There were minor downward and upward pressures from other prices in November. Excluding tobacco, the CPI went down by 0.2% in November (+1.3% compared to November 2011). In November 2012, prices of tobacco were stable but remained very dynamic year-on-year (+6.9%, the same rate than in November 2011).

Energy prices declined by 1.2% in November, they rose by 2.7% year-on-year. This decline in November came mainly from a new drop in petroleum product prices (–2.0%; +1.2% year-on-year), especially from fuels for transport prices (–2.3% in November after –1.4% in October). Those prices slowed down, growing by 0.3% year-on-year in November. Heat fuel prices decreased also in November by 1.4% (after –1.0% in October) but increased significantly year-on-year (+4.6%). Gas and electricity prices were stable in November. They grew respectively by 8.3% and 3.2% year-on-year in November.

In November 2012, service prices fell by 0.2%. They rose by 0.2% in November 2011. Over a year, they increased by 1.1%. The most significant downward contribution to the change in the service CPI in November was due to a new large decline in communication prices (-3.3% in November; -15.1% year-on-year), due to more favorable new mobile rates. Besides, air fares declined sharply in November (–5.6% over a month), above all for long haul flights. Package travel prices decreased seasonally in November (–2.9%; +3.6% year-on-year), as well as hotel and restaurant prices (-0.2% in November; +3.0% year-on-year).

Food prices were steady in November 2012. After a sbstantial rise in October (+4.9%), prices of fresh food products decreased by 1.1% in November. Excluding these products, food prices increased by 0.2% in November. Most of the upward pressure came from meat prices (+0.6% over a month in November after +0.7% in October). Year-on-year, food prices grew by 2.6% in November 2012, those of fresh foodstuffs by 8.7% and those of other food products by 1.7%

Overall, prices of manufactured products went up by 0.2% in November 2012 (+0.5% year-on-year). Clothing and footwear prices stabilized in November (+1.2% over a year). Changes in prices of the other manufactured products were more mixed : Most of the upward pressure came from a seasonal rise in flower and plant prices (+16.4%; +7.7% year-on-year) and in jewellery, clocks and watches (+1.2% in November, like in November 2011; +5.7% year-on year) and in a lesser manner in perfumery and beauty products (+0.4% in November; +1.6% year-on-year). On the opposite, downward pressure came from seasonally decrease in game and toys prices (–3.8% in November 2012; –2.9% in November 2011; –1.1% year-on-year). Finally, price drop of audio-visual, photographic and information processing equipment continued (–0.7% in November; –6.6% year-on-year).

Core inflation indicator (ISJ) steady in November 2012, slipped year-on-year (+0.7% in November after +0.9% in October). In November, the harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) declined by 0.2% over a month but increased by 1.6% year-on-year (+2.1% in October).