In Q2 2014, French GDP held steadyQuarterly national accounts - second estimate - 2nd Quarter 2014

In Q2 2014, French gross domestic product (GDP) in volume* remained steady (0.0%).

Publications for experts
Informations rapides – No 186
Paru le : 08/14/2014
Prochaine parution le : 02/28/2017 at 08:45 - fourth quarter 2016

In Q2 2014, French gross domestic product (GDP) in volume* remained steady (0.0%).

Household consumption expenditure upturned (+0.5% after –0.5%) while total gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) remained depressed (–1.1% after –1.0%). All in all, final domestic demand (excluding changes in inventories) slightly increased and contributed positively to GDP evolution in Q2 (+0.2 points after –0.4 points in Q1 2014).

Imports slightly decelerated (+0.4% after +0.6%), while exports were steady (0.0% after +0.5%). Consequently, the foreign trade balance contributed negatively to activity (–0.1 points) after a neutral contribution the previous quarter. Changes in inventories also contributed negatively (–0.1 points after +0.5 points).

Total production remained unchanged

In Q2 2014, production in goods and services was flat (–0.1% after +0.2%). Output in manufactured goods decreased anew (–1.0% after +0.8%), in most branches and especially that of coke and refined petroleum. This decrease in output of manufactured goods is partly due to the high number of potential extra days off this quarter due to midweek public holidays. At the same time, production in tradable services was almost unchanged (+0.1% after +0.2%). While output in energy, water and waste bounced back (+2.1% after –1.6%), output in construction was still depressed (–1.5% after –1.6%)

Graph1 – GDP and its main components

Tab1 – Goods and services:supply and uses chain-linked volumes

percentage change from previous period,working-day and seasonally adjusted data
Goods and services:supply and uses chain-linked volumes
2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2014 Q1 2014 Q2 2013 2014 (ovhg)
GDP -0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.3
Imports 0.9 0.3 0.6 0.4 1.9 2.1
Household' consumption *expenditure -0.1 0.2 -0.5 0.5 0.3 0.0
General government's *consumption expenditure 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.5 2.0 1.6
GFCF -0.2 -0.1 -1.0 -1.1 -0.8 -2.0
*of which Non financial corporated and unincorporated enterprises 0.2 0.8 -0.7 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5
Households -1.8 -2.1 -2.9 -2.4 -3.1 -7.0
General government 0.4 -0.3 0.0 -0.5 1.1 -0.2
Exports -0.5 1.4 0.5 0.0 2.4 2.1
Contributions :        
Internal demand excluding inventory changes 0.0 0.2 -0.4 0.2 0.4 0.0
Inventory changes 0.4 -0.4 0.5 -0.1 -0.2 0.4
Net foreign trade -0.4 0.3 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.0

    Tab2 – Sectoral accounts

    percentage change from previous period,working-day and seasonally adjusted data
    Sectoral accounts
    2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2014 Q1 2014 Q2 2013 2014 (ovhg)
    Profit ratio of NFC* (level) 29.5 29.4 30.0   29.8  
    Household purchasing power -0.3 -0.3 0.9   0.0 1.1
    • *NFC: non-financial corporations

    Tab3 – Production, Consumption and GFCF : main componants

    level, data WDA-SA
    Production, Consumption and GFCF : main componants
    2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2014 Q1 2014 Q2 2013 2014 (ovhg)
    Production of branches -0.2 0.2 0.2 -0.1 0.5 0.4
    Goods -1.3 -0.2 0.4 -0.4 -0.2 -0.4
    Manufactured Industry -1.2 0.0 0.8 -1.0 -0.6 0.0
    Construction -0.6 -0.3 -1.6 -1.5 -1.2 -3.1
    Market services 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.9 0.9
    Non-market services 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 1.5 1.4
    Household consumption -0.1 0.2 -0.5 0.5 0.3 0.0
    Food products 0.3 0.9 -0.9 0.9 0.1 0.4
    Energy -3.8 -1.3 -3.9 3.5 0.8 -3.9
    Engineered goods 0.7 1.2 0.0 0.1 -1.0 1.3
    Services 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.5
    GFCF -0.2 -0.1 -1.0 -1.1 -0.8 -2.0
    Manufactured goods 1.1 0.4 -0.6 -0.5 -0.9 -0.2
    Construction -0.8 -0.7 -1.9 -2.1 -1.6 -4.3
    Services -0.3 0.3 -0.1 -0.1 0.3 0.2

      Tab4 – Households’ disposable income and ratios of households’ account

      percentage change from previous period,working-day and seasonally adjusted data
      Households’ disposable income and ratios of households’ account
      2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2014 Q1 2014 Q2 2013 2014 (ovhg)
      HDI -0.1 -0.3 1.3   0.6 1.6
      Household purchasing power -0.3 -0.3 0.9 0.0 1.1
      HDI by cu* (purchasing power) -0.4 -0.5 0.8 -0.6 0.6
      Adjusted HDI (purchasing power) -0.1 -0.1 0.8 0.5 1.2
      Saving rate (level) 15.1 14.7 15.9 15.1  
      Financial saving rate (level) 5.9 5.6 7.0   5.8  
      • *cu: consumption unit

      Tab5 – Ratios of non-financial corporations’ account

      percentage change from previous period,working-day and seasonally adjusted data
      Ratios of non-financial corporations’ account
      2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2014 Q1 2014 Q2 2013
      Profit share 29.5 29.4 30.0   29.8
      Investment ratio 22.6 22.8 22.6   22.6
      Savings ratio 16.7 17.2 17.2   17.1
      Self-financing ratio 73.8 75.7 76.4   75.7

        Tab6 – Expenditure, receipts and net borrowing of public administrations

        level, data WDA-SA
        Expenditure, receipts and net borrowing of public administrations
        2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2014 Q1 2014 Q2 2013
        In billions of euros      
        Total expenditure 303.5 305.3 308.4   1208.3
        Total receipts 281.2 283.3 284.8   1118.7
        Net lending (+) or borrowing (-) -22.2 -22.0 -23.6   -89.6
        In % of GDP      
        Net lending (+) or borrowing (-) -4.2 -4.1 -4.4   -4.2

          Household consumption accelerated

          Household consumption expenditure rose by 0.5% in Q2 2014 after –0.5% in Q1. Global expenditure on energy bounced back in Q2 (+3.5% after –3.9%) after rather soft weather conditions in winter. Consumption of food products also bounced back in Q2 (+0.9% après –0.9%). By contrast, expenditure on engineered goods were flat (+0.1 after 0.0%): while car purchases (+0.4% after –1.4%) and expenditure on machinery and equipment goods (+2.9% after +1.0%) accelerated in Q2, clothing expenditure dropped (–2.0% after +0.6%). Meanwhile, expenditure on services remained sluggish (+0.2% after +0.1%).

          Total GFCF stepped back again

          Total GFCF was still depressed in Q2 (–1.1% after –1.0%). More specifically, construction investment was still decreasing (–2.1% after –1.9%) and so was investment in manufactured goods (–0.5% after –0.6 %), mostly in engineered goods and cars purchases. This decrease in GFCF affected non-financial enterprises (–0.8% after –0.7%), general government (–0.5% after 0.0%) and especially households (–2.4% after –2.9%)

          The foreign trade balance contributed negatively to activity

          Exports remained the same in Q2 (0.0% after +0.5%) weighed down by a decrease in exported manufactured goods, especially in foods products and transport equipment. Despite a slight deceleration (+0.4% after +0.6%), imports still increased. Overall, the foreign trade balance contributed for -0.1 points to GDP in Q2, after a neutral contribution the previous quarter.

          Changes in inventories slightly weighed down GDP change this quarter

          In Q2, changes in inventories accounted for –0.1 points of GDP change after +0.5 points the previous quarter. The negative contribution concerned mostly refined petroleum.

          Revisions

          Revisions on previous quarters are tenuous, evolution of GDP in Q1 2014 (0.0%) and Q4 2013 (+0.2%) are confirmed. The slight revisions are mainly due to the update of seasonal adjustment.