29 August 2013
2013- n° 195In August 2013, the business climate recovered significantly in the retail trade
and in the trade and repair of motor vehicles Monthly survey of retailing - August 2013
According to the business managers, the business climate in the retail trade and in the trade and repair of motor vehicles recovered significantly in August 2013 : the composite indicator increased by 8 points. However it still remains under its long term average.
According to the business managers, the business climate in the retail trade and in the trade and repair of motor vehicles recovered significantly in August 2013 : the composite indicator increased by 8 points. However it still remains under its long term average.
graphiquegraph_indsynt_en – Business climate synthetic indicator
Much better general outlook
Less business leaders than in July declared a decrease in their past and previous activity: each of the three balances concerning recent sales, expected sales and ordering intentions rised but still remains under its mean level.
General business outlook have progressed for three surveys in a row, showing that business leaders have been substantially less pessimistic about the trade situation.
The balance concerning expected prices declined slightly.
graphiqueGraph_ventes_ic_en – Recent sales and ordering intentions
tableautab1_en – Global data
| Ave. (1) | May 13 | June 13 | July 13 | Aug. 13 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business climate | 100 | 85 | 87 | 86 | 94 |
| General business outlook | –30 | –56 | –54 | –48 | –36 |
| Recent sales | –7 | –30 | –25 | –26 | –18 |
| Expected sales | –3 | –23 | –19 | –18 | –12 |
| Ordering intentions | –9 | –21 | –20 | –23 | –14 |
| Stocks | 11 | 8 | 11 | 13 | 7 |
| Past selling prices (2) | –6 | –6 | –9 | ||
| Expected selling prices | –3 | –2 | –8 | –2 | –5 |
| Cash position (2) | –15 | –24 | –26 | ||
| Workforce size: recent trend | 0 | –11 | –9 | –10 | –7 |
| Workforce size: future trend | –2 | –10 | –12 | –12 | –9 |
- (1) Average since 1991 (2004 for recent and expected sales and ordering intentions).
- (2) Bi-monthly question (odd-numbered months).
- Source : monthly survey in the retail trade and in the trade and repair of motor vehicles - INSEE
Still unfavourable employment
According to the business leaders, employment creation rate slowed down a little over both the last few months and the next months. Each of the two balances still remains lower than its average.
Retail trade
Progressing past and previous activity
Less trade retailers than in July declared a decrease in their past activity : in non-specialized trade, this trend has been very significant, and the corresponding balance is now closed to its average. In specialized trade, it has been less marked, and the balance is still low.
Retailers expectations are much less pessimistic : in both non-specialized and specialized trade, the balances concerning expected sales and ordering intentions have significantly increased, becoming nearer their average.
Stocks were overall estimated much lighter, getting under their average.
The expected prices balance remained stable, but it declined sharply in non-specialized trade and has gone up considerably in specialized trade.
Trade and repair of motor vehicles
graphiquegraph_ventes_ic_auto_en – Recent sales and ordering intentions in motor vehicles
Uncertain forecasts
Motor vehicle traders remained pessimistic about their past activity: the corresponding balance stabilised at a rather low level.
As on the past surveys, they are still divided about their forecasts: the expected sales balance fell again while it went up for ordering intentions.
More traders than in July anticipate a fall in prices.
tableautab2_en – Detailed data
| Moy. (1) | May 13 | June 13 | July 13 | Aug. 13 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail trade - Global data | |||||
| Recent sales | –4 | –31 | –23 | –28 | –16 |
| Expected sales | 1 | –20 | –18 | –17 | –6 |
| Ordering intentions | –7 | –20 | –19 | –23 | –11 |
| Stocks | 10 | 7 | 11 | 16 | 6 |
| Past selling prices (2) | –8 | –3 | –7 | ||
| Expected selling prices | –4 | 1 | –9 | –2 | –4 |
| Cash position (2) | –13 | –22 | –24 | ||
| Workforce size: recent trend | 1 | –8 | –6 | –6 | –5 |
| Workforce size: future trend | –1 | –6 | –10 | –11 | –7 |
| Non specialized retail trade | |||||
| Recent sales | –1 | –21 | –10 | –24 | –7 |
| Expected sales | 6 | –8 | 0 | –6 | 6 |
| Ordering intentions | 2 | –6 | 0 | –16 | –3 |
| Stocks | 7 | –2 | 4 | 19 | 4 |
| Past selling prices (2) | –7 | 4 | 3 | ||
| Expected selling prices | –4 | 11 | –4 | 4 | –8 |
| Cash position (2) | –7 | –10 | –13 | ||
| Specialized retail trade | |||||
| Recent sales | –9 | –43 | –38 | –34 | –27 |
| Expected sales | –6 | –33 | –34 | –33 | –19 |
| Ordering intentions | –17 | –38 | –39 | –32 | –20 |
| Stocks | 14 | 18 | 19 | 13 | 8 |
| Past selling prices (2) | –7 | –11 | –17 | ||
| Expected selling prices | –4 | –10 | –15 | –9 | 1 |
| Cash position (2) | –22 | –36 | –36 | ||
| Trade and repair of motor cars and motorcycles | |||||
| Recent sales | –11 | –29 | –30 | –21 | –24 |
| Expected sales | –9 | –31 | –25 | –20 | –26 |
| Ordering intentions | –14 | –19 | –23 | –27 | –21 |
| Stocks | 16 | 9 | 12 | 7 | 11 |
| Past selling prices (2) | 1 | –14 | –14 | ||
| Expected selling prices | 5 | –6 | –4 | –1 | –5 |
| Cash position (2) | –26 | –29 | –31 | ||
| Workforce size: recent trend | –9 | –22 | –16 | –21 | –17 |
| Workforce size: future trend | –7 | –22 | –18 | –20 | –16 |
- (1) Average since 1991 (2004 for recent and expected sales and ordering intentions, and for trade and repair of motor vehicles).INSEE
- (2) Bi-monthly question (odd-numberred months).
- Source : monthly survey in the retail trade and in the trade and repair of motor vehicles - INSEE
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