According business leaders, in manufacturing industry, investment would stay dynamic in 2012 : +7% comparing to 2011Industrial investment survey - January 2012

Surveyed in January 2012, business managers estimate that investment in manufacturing industry increased by 10% in 2011. They revised by one point downwards their previous expectations given in last October.

Informations rapides
No 39
Paru le : 09/02/2012
Prochaine parution le : 07/11/2017 at 08:45 - October 2017

Surveyed in January 2012, business managers estimate that investment in manufacturing industry increased by 10% in 2011. They revised by one point downwards their previous expectations given in last October.

Graph1_ang – Annual nominal change in investment in manufacturing industry

For 2012, business managers forecast that rise in investment would still be firm

For 2012, business managers in manufacturing industry forecast that their investment would increase by 7% comparing to 2011. They revised 3 points upwards their previous expectations given in last October. This revision upwards concerns the sector of electrical and electronic equipment; machine equipment (+6 points) and the sector of manufacture of food products and beverages (+4 points). In these sectors, capital expenditures would thereby intensify in 2012 (resp. +9% and +8% after +4% in 2011). At the same time, industrials in manufacture of transport equipment confirmed that their investment would be more dynamic in 2012 (+15% after +8% in 2011), with a strong rebound in the sector of motor vehicles (+19% after -1%). While business managers in sectors always anticipate that their investment would moderate sharply (+3% after +13%).

Tab1_ang – Real annual investment growth in manufacturing industry

%
Real annual investment growth in manufacturing industry
NA* : (A17) and [A38] 2011 2012
forecast Oct.11 estimate Jan.12 forecast Oct.11 forecast Jan.12
C : Manufacturing industry 11 10 4 7
(C1): Manufacture of food products and beverages 6 4 4 8
(C3): Electrical and electronic equipment; machine equipment 6 4 3 9
(C4): Manufacture of transport equipment 4 8 17 15
[CL1]: Motor vehicles –5 –1 25 19
(C5): Other manufacturing 13 13 3 3
  • How to read this table : In manufacturing industry, firms surveyed in January 2012 estimate a nominal investment increase of 10% in 2011 comparing to 2010. They forecast a nominal investment increase of 7% in 2012 comparing to 2011.
  • * The codes correspond to the level of aggregation (A17) and [A38] of the "NA" aggregate classification based on NAF rev.2.

Industrials anticipate a moderation of the rise of investment in H1 2012

Between H1 and H2 2011, industrials state an increase of their investment, as they anticipated it in last July. With regards to H1 2012, they forecast a rise in their investment less important comparing to H2 2011.

The investment revision indicator equal to zero

The investment revision indicator rises up but stays negative. Based on investment amounts filled in at each survey by business leaders of manufacturing industry except those of manufacture of food products and beverages (C1) and of coke and refined petroleum products (C2), this indicator is well-correlated with quarterly growth fixed capital formation of non-financial enterprises. That suggests a slightly reduction of investment of these enterprises at the Q1 2012.

GraphIR_ang – Investment revision indicator*

Graph2_ang – Opinion of business leaders in the manufacturing industry regarding six-month change in investment (second estimation*)