9 February 2012

2012- n° 39

According business leaders, in manufacturing industry, investment would stay dynamic in 2012 : +7% comparing to 2011 Industrial investment survey - January 2012

Surveyed in January 2012, business managers estimate that investment in manufacturing industry increased by 10% in 2011. They revised by one point downwards their previous expectations given in last October.

For 2012, business managers in manufacturing industry forecast that their investment would increase by 7% comparing to 2011. They revised 3 points upwards their previous expectations given in last October. This revision upwards concerns the sector of electrical and electronic equipment; machine equipment (+6 points) and the sector of manufacture of food products and beverages (+4 points). In these sectors, capital expenditures would thereby intensify in 2012 (resp. +9% and +8% after +4% in 2011). At the same time, industrials in manufacture of transport equipment confirmed that their investment would be more dynamic in 2012 (+15% after +8% in 2011), with a strong rebound in the sector of motor vehicles (+19% after -1%). While business managers in sectors always anticipate that their investment would moderate sharply (+3% after +13%).

Between H1 and H2 2011, industrials state an increase of their investment, as they anticipated it in last July. With regards to H1 2012, they forecast a rise in their investment less important comparing to H2 2011.

The investment revision indicator rises up but stays negative. Based on investment amounts filled in at each survey by business leaders of manufacturing industry except those of manufacture of food products and beverages (C1) and of coke and refined petroleum products (C2), this indicator is well-correlated with quarterly growth fixed capital formation of non-financial enterprises. That suggests a slightly reduction of investment of these enterprises at the Q1 2012.