The economic outlook in the wholesale trade has decreased in January 2014Bi-monthly survey of wholesaling - January 2014

According to the managers surveyed in January 2014, the economic outlook in the wholesale trade sector has decreased. The composite indicator has dropped by three points since November. Although it remains below its long-term average, it is 7 points below its July’s level.

Informations rapides
No 18
Paru le : 23/01/2014
Prochaine parution le : 24/01/2018 at 08:45 - January 2018

Total wholesale trade

According to the managers surveyed in January 2014, the economic outlook in the wholesale trade sector has decreased. The composite indicator has dropped by three points since November. Although it remains below its long-term average, it is 7 points below its July’s level.

The turning-point indicator is located in the neutral area.

Activity has fallen down …

Wholesalers reported a decrease in past activity: the balance of opinion on past sales and on received deliveries has gone down. Similarly, the balance of opinion on imports has slipped and the balance of opinion on exports has plunged.

… and will stabilise over the next months

At the same time, the general outlook for activity, which collects wholesalers’ opinions on French trade, has improved slightly again. Global intended orders have remained close to their levels of November. However, the balance of opinion on shipments abroad over the next months has shrunk, even if it has remained above its long-term average.

In January, the stock level has stayed below its long-term average.

More pessimistic employment expectations

Less wholesalers than in November indicate a decline in labor force over the last few months. The balance of opinion on expected employment has decreased: more managers expect a decline in employment.

Prices will increase

In January, fewer wholesalers reported a price decrease in the past. Even if more wholesalers expect a price increase over the next months, the corresponding balance of opinion has stayed below its long-term average.

graph_indclimaff – Composite indicator

graph_indretournf – Turning-point indicator

  • Note: close to 1 (respectively -1), this indicator points to a favourable short-term economic situation (respectively unfavourable).

tab_cgens – Total wholesale trade

Balances of opinion, in %, S.A.
Total wholesale trade
MOY* July 13 Sept. 13 Nov. 13 Jan. 14
Composite indicator 100 88 97 98 95
General outlook –25 –49 –26 –30 –27
Sales –13 –32 –21 –19 –23
export sales –15 –19 –13 –10 –20
Received merchandise –9 –25 –16 –16 –19
received from abroad –10 –25 –14 –14 –17
Ordering intentions –15 –25 –16 –15 –16
ordering from abroad –15 –25 –15 –16 –16
Shipments abroad –16 –20 –18 –10 –13
Current stock 8 0 1 1 2
Past workforce –1 –10 –8 –7 –6
Expected workforce –3 –10 –4 –3 –6
Cash position –10 –12 –8 –7 –8
Past selling prices 9 –5 –7 –9 –3
Expecting selling prices 16 –4 –1 1 4
  • * : average since September 1979
  • Source : French business survey in the wholesale trade - Insee

Raw agricultural products and live animals

According to the wholesalers in this sector, activity has improved dramatically. So, the balance of opinion on past sales has moved below its average. Nevertheless, the balances of opinion on foreign exchanges have decreased. The stock level has declined.

Food products and beverages

According to wholesalers in the food products and drink sector, the balance of opinion on past activity has slowed down. The balances of opinion on exports and imports have soared, becoming higher than its long-term average. Ordering intentions have returned to their mean level.

Household goods

In this sector, wholesalers reported a downturn in their past activity and a substantial drop in exports. Ordering intentions have remained stable compared to November, at a level close to its average.

Capital goods in information and communication

In capital goods in information and communication, sales have fallen. Similarly, exports and imports have decreased considerably. Ordering intentions over the next months are badly biased.

Other industrial capital goods

In this sector, contractors reported a decline in their activity. The balances of opinion on foreign exchanges have shrunk dramatically. Ordering intentions are below their average.

Other specialized wholesale trade

According to these wholesalers, activity has stayed grim, with its corresponding balance of opinion below its long-term level. Exports and imports have remained at levels close to theses of November.

graph_sect – Past activity (sales) in capital goods

tab_cgsect – Secteurs du commerce de gros

Balances of opinion, in %, S.A.
Secteurs du commerce de gros
MOY* July 13 Sept. 13 Nov. 13 Jan. 14
Raw agricultural products and live animals
Sales –12 –12 –15 –20 –10
Export sales –15 –10 –15 –19 –25
Merchandise received from abroad –8 –21 –17 –8 –19
Ordering intentions –12 –21 –14 –12 –10
Current stock 6 –11 –10 –9 –14
Food products and beverages
Sales –15 –25 –6 –17 –21
Export sales –12 –22 –10 –15 –3
Merchandise received from abroad –13 –32 –16 –19 –10
Ordering intentions –11 –19 –11 –7 –11
Current stock 5 –6 –3 –6 –2
Household goods
Sales –9 –38 –26 –17 –25
Export sales –12 1 –13 1 –34
Merchandise received from abroad –6 –18 –2 –12 –16
Ordering intentions –14 –17 –16 –13 –13
Current stock 12 8 3 7 4
Capital goods in information and communication
Sales –9 –39 –16 –12 –33
Export sales –13 –20 4 –20 –42
Merchandise received from abroad –7 –37 –27 –13 –23
Ordering intentions –10 –32 2 –9 –13
Current stock 8 14 18 9 12
Other industrial capital goods
Sales –16 –39 –33 –25 –29
Export sales –21 –18 –25 –19 –31
Merchandise received from abroad –11 –27 –30 –11 –21
Ordering intentions –22 –35 –33 –27 –28
Current stock 12 5 7 3 8
Other specialized wholesale trade
Sales –17 –35 –24 –23 –25
Export sales –19 –38 –12 –7 –6
Merchandise received from abroad –12 –23 –9 –14 –15
Ordering intentions –19 –27 –20 –19 –17
Current stock 6 –4 2 4 –2
  • * : average since September 1979
  • Source: French business survey in the wholesale trade - Insee