25 November 2013
2013- n° 266The economic outlook in the wholesale trade has remained almost stable in November
2013 Bi-monthly survey of wholesaling - November 2013
According to the managers surveyed in November 2013, the economic outlook in the wholesale trade sector has remained almost stable. The composite indicator has increased by one point since September, remaining however below its long-term average.
- Total wholesale trade
- Activity is slightly well oriented …
- … and should be dragged by foreign exchanges over the next months
- Employment has improved
- Prices would have decreased
- Raw agricultural products and live animals
- Food products and beverages
- Household goods
- Capital goods in information and communication
- Other industrial capital goods
- Other specialized wholesale trade
Total wholesale trade
According to the managers surveyed in November 2013, the economic outlook in the wholesale trade sector has remained almost stable. The composite indicator has increased by one point since September, remaining however below its long-term average.
The turning-point indicator is now located in the neutral area.
Activity is slightly well oriented …
Wholesalers reported a substantial improvement in past activity: the balance of opinion on past sales is more dynamic than in September while the balance of opinion on received deliveries has been stable. The balance of opinion on imports has been below its average. Exports have improved.
… and should be dragged by foreign exchanges over the next months
At the same time, the general outlook for activity, which collects wholesalers’ opinions on French trade, has decreased slightly, after the considerable rise over the last months. While global intended orders have remained close to their long-term averages, the balance of opinion on shipments abroad over the next months have increased dramatically.
In November, the stock level has stayed below its long-term average.
Employment has improved
Wholesalers were as numerous as in September to indicate a decline in workforce over the last months. The balance of opinion on expected employment has risen and has reached a level just above its average.
Prices would have decreased
In November, more wholesalers reported a price decrease in the past. Even if more wholesalers expect a price increase over the next months, the corresponding balance of opinion has stayed below its long-term average.
graphiquegraph_indclimaff – Composite indicator
graphiquegraph_indretournf – Turning-point indicator
- Note: close to 1 (respectively -1), this indicator points to a favourable short-term economic situation (respectively unfavourable).
tableautab_cgens – Total wholesale trade
| MOY* | May 13 | July 13 | Sept. 13 | Nov. 13 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Composite indicator | 100 | 89 | 88 | 97 | 98 |
| General outlook | –25 | –59 | –49 | –26 | –29 |
| Sales | –13 | –29 | –32 | –21 | –19 |
| export sales | –15 | –28 | –19 | –13 | –10 |
| Received merchandise | –9 | –19 | –25 | –16 | –16 |
| received from abroad | –10 | –19 | –25 | –14 | –14 |
| Ordering intentions | –15 | –24 | –25 | –16 | –15 |
| ordering from abroad | –15 | –25 | –25 | –15 | –17 |
| Shipments abroad | –16 | –21 | –20 | –18 | –9 |
| Current stock | 8 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Past workforce | –1 | –12 | –10 | –8 | –8 |
| Expected workforce | –3 | –10 | –10 | –4 | –2 |
| Cash position | –10 | –11 | –12 | –8 | –8 |
| Past selling prices | 9 | –11 | –5 | –7 | –9 |
| Expecting selling prices | 16 | –3 | –4 | –1 | 1 |
- * : average since September 1979
- Source : French business survey in the wholesale trade - Insee
Raw agricultural products and live animals
According to the wholesalers in this sector, activity has declined. The balance of opinion on exports has dropped while the balance of opinion on imports has gone up until its average. The stock level has declined.
Food products and beverages
According to wholesalers in the food products and drink sector, the balance of opinion on past activity has slowed down after the improvement in July. The balances of opinion on exports and imports have slipped, but the one on exports has remained close to its long-term average. Ordering intentions are slightly more dynamic than in September.
Household goods
In this sector, wholesalers reported a considerable improvement in their past activity, dragged by exports. Ordering intentions are on an upward trend and the corresponding balance of opinion has reached its average level.
Capital goods in information and communication
In capital goods in information and communication, sales have improved and the balance of opinion has reached its average level. Exports have declined, after the rebound in summer, and the balance of opinion on imports has stayed badly directed. Ordering intentions over the next months should shrink, but the balance of opinion has remained slightly higher than its long-term average.
Other industrial capital goods
In this sector, contractors reported a grim activity. However, the balances of opinion on foreign exchanges have grown until levels above theirs averages. Similarly, ordering intentions strengthen.
Other specialized wholesale trade
According to these wholesalers, activity has stayed not very dynamic, despite the spectacular surge in exports since the spring. Imports have decreased until their average level. Ordering intentions remain badly directed.
graphiquegraph_sect – Past activity (sales) in capital goods
tableautab_cgsect – Sectors of wholesale trade
| MOY* | May 13 | July 13 | Sept. 13 | Nov. 13 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw agricultural products and live animals | |||||
| Sales | –12 | –8 | –12 | –15 | –20 |
| Export sales | –15 | –7 | –10 | –15 | –22 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | –8 | –13 | –21 | –17 | –9 |
| Ordering intentions | –12 | –12 | –21 | –14 | –12 |
| Current stock | 6 | 4 | –11 | –10 | –14 |
| Food products and beverages | |||||
| Sales | –15 | –28 | –25 | –6 | –19 |
| Export sales | –12 | –24 | –22 | –10 | –13 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | –13 | –16 | –32 | –16 | –22 |
| Ordering intentions | –11 | –17 | –19 | –11 | –9 |
| Current stock | 5 | 1 | –6 | –3 | –5 |
| Household goods | |||||
| Sales | –9 | –31 | –38 | –26 | –16 |
| Export sales | –12 | –16 | 1 | –13 | –2 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | –6 | –14 | –18 | –2 | –9 |
| Ordering intentions | –14 | –24 | –17 | –16 | –13 |
| Current stock | 12 | 6 | 8 | 3 | 4 |
| Capital goods in information and communication | |||||
| Sales | –9 | –18 | –39 | –16 | –10 |
| Export sales | –13 | –32 | –20 | 4 | –15 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | –7 | –16 | –37 | –27 | –23 |
| Ordering intentions | –10 | –30 | –32 | 2 | –7 |
| Current stock | 8 | 4 | 14 | 18 | 13 |
| Other industrial capital goods | |||||
| Sales | –16 | –38 | –39 | –33 | –27 |
| Export sales | –21 | –32 | –18 | –25 | –18 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | –11 | –31 | –27 | –30 | –8 |
| Ordering intentions | –22 | –36 | –35 | –33 | –26 |
| Current stock | 12 | 13 | 5 | 7 | 2 |
| Other specialized wholesale trade | |||||
| Sales | –17 | –37 | –35 | –24 | –22 |
| Export sales | –19 | –53 | –38 | –12 | –6 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | –12 | –25 | –23 | –9 | –12 |
| Ordering intentions | –19 | –27 | –27 | –20 | –20 |
| Current stock | 6 | 1 | –4 | 2 | 3 |
- * : average since September 1979
- Source: French business survey in the wholesale trade - Insee
Pour en savoir plus
Time series : Wholesale trade
