French GDP increased by 0.3% in Q4 and over the yearQuarterly national accounts - second estimate - 4th Quarter 2013

In Q4 2013, GDP in volume terms* increased by 0.3%, after a stability in Q3. Over the year, GDP rose by 0.3% after a stagnation in 2012.

Publications for experts
Informations rapides – No 34
Paru le : 02/14/2014
Prochaine parution le : 02/28/2017 at 08:45 - fourth quarter 2016

In Q4 2013, GDP in volume terms* increased by 0.3%, after a stability in Q3. Over the year, GDP rose by 0.3% after a stagnation in 2012.

Household consumption expenditure accelerated by the end of the year (+0.5% after +0.1%). Furthermore, total gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) rose for the first time since the end of 2011 (+0.6% after –0.3%). Thus, final domestic demand (excluding inventory changes) accelerated significantly and contributed for +0.5 points to GDP after a neutral contribution in Q3. In Q4 2013, exports bounced back (+1.2% after –1.6%) while imports decelerated slightly (+0.5% after +0.8%). Therefore, the foreign trade balance contributed positively to activity anew: +0.2 points after –0.7 points. Conversely, changes in inventories contributed for –0.3 points, after +0.6 points the previous quarter.

Total production was up anew

In Q4, production in goods and services returned to its Q2 level (+0.2% after –0.2%). Output in the manufactured goods was virtually stable (–0.1% after –1.0%): output of coke and refined petroleum industry declined again but production in other manufacturing branchs was on a better trend. At the same time, production in tradable services accelerated (+0.4% after +0.1%) and production in construction recovered (+0.5% after –0.3%). Over the year, total output increased by 0.6%, after a decrease of 0.3% in 2012.

Investment got out of the rut by the end of 2013

After seven consecutive quarters of decline, global GFCF increased in Q4 2013 (+0.6% after –0.3%). The recover of the expenditure on manufactured goods was confirmed (+1.1%, as in Q3), notably in transport equipment. Concerning services, investment in construction (+0.5% after –0.4%) and in tradable services (+0.4% after –1.7%) both contributed to the global GFCF acceleration. However, given the growth rate carried over at the end of Q3, global GFCF declined over the year: –2.1% after –1.2% in 2012.

Tab1 – Goods and services: supply and uses, chain-linked volumes

percentage change from previous period, working-day and seasonally adjusted data
Goods and services: supply and uses, chain-linked volumes
2013 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2012 2013
GDP 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.3
Imports 0.1 1.5 0.8 0.5 -0.9 0.8
Households' consumption *expenditure 0.0 0.4 0.1 0.5 -0.4 0.4
General government's *consumption expenditure 0.4 0.7 0.2 0.4 1.4 1.7
GFCF -0.7 -0.3 -0.3 0.6 -1.2 -2.1
*of which Non financial corporated and unincorporated enterprises -0.9 -0.1 -0.3 0.9 -1.9 -2.3
Households -1.3 -1.6 -0.6 -0.1 -0.4 -3.8
General government 0.5 1.0 0.4 1.1 -0.6 1.4
Exports -0.5 2.4 -1.6 1.2 2.5 0.6
Contributions :        
Internal demand excluding inventory changes -0.1 0.4 0.0 0.5 -0.1 0.2
Inventory changes 0.2 0.0 0.6 -0.3 -0.8 0.1
Net foreign trade -0.1 0.2 -0.7 0.2 1.0 -0.1

    Tab2 – Sectoral accounts

    percentage change from previous period, working-day and seasonally adjusted data
    Sectoral accounts
    2013 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2012 2013 (ovhg)
    Profit ratio of NFC* (level) 28,1 28,3 27,7   28,3 0,0
    Household purchasing power 0,9 0,5 -0,1   -0,9 0,4
    • *NFC: non-financial corporations

    Tab3 – GDP and components: prices indices

    percentage change from previous period,working-day and seasonally adjusted data
    GDP and components: prices indices
    2013 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2012 2013
    GDP 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.3 1.5 1.1
    Imports -0.5 -0.8 0.5 -0.5 1.9 -0.8
    Cons. Exp. :      
    - Households 0.3 -0.1 0.2 0.1 1.9 0.6
    - GG* 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.1 0.5
    Total GFCF 0.4 -0.1 0.1 0.3 1.7 0.7
    - of which Households 0.4 -0.2 -0.4 0.3 2.3 0.0
    - of which NFE 0.6 0.0 0.3 0.2 1.3 1.0
    - of which GG 0.2 -0.1 0.3 0.4 2.2 0.8
    Exports -0.2 -0.5 -0.1 -0.2 1.2 -0.1
    • *GG: General Government

    Tab4 – Manufactured goods: supply and uses in volume

    percentage change from previous period,working-day and seasonally adjusted data
    Manufactured goods: supply and uses in volume
    2013 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2012 2013
    Industrie’s production 0.5 1.9 -1.0 -0.1 -2.8 0.1
    - of which value added 0.0 1.1 -0.7 0.3 -2.0 -0.5
    Imports 0.1 1.4 1.4 1.2 0.3 0.5
    Intermediate uses 0.1 1.4 -0.3 0.2 -1.8 0.2
    Cons. Exp. :      
    - of households -0.6 0.4 0.4 1.0 -1.2 -0.1
    - of GG 1.6 1.4 1.0 1.2 4.3 5.0
    Total GFCF -0.6 -0.3 1.1 1.1 -3.0 -2.0
    - of which NFC -0.8 -0.4 1.2 1.2 -3.7 -2.4
    - of which GG 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 1.0 -0.1
    Exports -0.8 3.2 -2.3 1.5 3.0 0.2
    Inventory changes (contribution) 1.1 -0.2 1.1 -0.7 -2.5 0.5

      Tab5 – Households’ disposable income and ratios of households’ account

      percentage change from previous period,working-day and seasonall adjusted data
      Households’ disposable income and ratios of households’ account
      2013 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2012 2013 (ovhg)
      HDI 1.2 0.4 0.1   0.9 1.0
      Household purchasing power 0.9 0.5 -0.1 -0.9 0.4
      HDI by cu* (purchasing power) 0.8 0.3 -0.3 -1.5 -0.2
      Adjusted HDI (purchasing power) 0.8 0.5 0.0 -0.4 0.6
      Saving rate (level) 15.8 15.8 15.7 15.6 0.0
      Financial saving rate (level) 6.6 6.8 6.8   6.2 0.0
      • *cu: consumption unit

      Tab6 – Ratios of non-financial corporations’ account

      percentage change from previous period,working-day and seasonally adjusted data
      Ratios of non-financial corporations’ account
      2013 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2012
      Profit share 28.1 28.3 27.7   28.3
      Investment ratio 19.0 18.8 18.9   19.4
      Savings ratio 12.4 12.8 11.7   12.8
      Self-financing ratio 65.1 67.7 62.0   65.9

        Household consumption accelerated

        Household consumption expenditure rose by 0.5% in Q4 2013 after +0.1% in Q3. The expenditure in goods increased significantly (+0.8% after 0.0%), driven up particularly by the acceleration of consumption in food products, cars and equipment goods. In addition, heating expenditure decline was slighter than in Q3. However, expenditure in services remained sluggish (+0.2% after +0.1% in Q3). Over the year, household consumption expenditure was up by 0.4%, after –0.4% in 2012.

        The foreign trade balance contributed for +0.2 points to GDP

        Exportations bounced back in Q4 (+1.2% after –1.6%). The acceleration of the exchanges concerned almost all manufactured goods, particularly sales of transport equipment (+3.4% after –6.8%). In the same time, importations rose again but a little slower (+0.5% after +0.8%), slowing down notably in agricultural goods, transport equipment and oil products. Overall, the foreign trade balance contributed for +0.2 points to GDP in Q4, after –0.7 points the previous quarter. Over the year, exportations increased (+0.6% after +2.5%) a little slower than importations which bounced back (+0.8% after –0.9%). Thus, over the year the foreign trade balance contributed slightly to GDP (–0.1 point after +1.0 point in 2012).

        Changes in inventories weighed down GDP growth this quarter

        In Q4, changes in inventories accounted for –0.3 points of GDP growth after +0.6 points the previous quarter. In Q4, the negative contribution concerned nearly all the categories of goods except equipment goods. Over the year, it contributed for +0.1 points, after –0.8 points in 2012.

        Revisions: activity is slightly upscaled in Q3

        In Q1 and Q3 2013, the evolutions of GDP are slightly upscaled (from –0.1% to 0.0%) compared to previous release. These revisions are mainly due to the update of seasonal and working day adjustment.