14 February 2013
2013- n° 35French GDP stepped back in 2012 Q4 (–0.3%), no growth for 2012 Quarterly national accounts - second estimate - 4st Quarter 2012
In 2012 Q4, French gross domestic product (GDP) in volume* stepped back (–0.3%), after +0.1% the previous quarter. Over the year, GDP growth was null in 2012, after +1.7% in 2011.
In 2012 Q4, French gross domestic product (GDP) in volume* stepped back (–0.3%), after +0.1% the previous quarter. Over the year, GDP growth was null in 2012, after +1.7% in 2011.
Households’ consumption expenditure slightly increased at the end of the year (+0.2% after +0.3%). Their growth are overcompensated by the new step back (–1.0% after –0.5%) of gross fixed capital formation (GFCF). Therefore, total domestic demand (excluding inventory changes) was neutral on GDP evolution (after +0.1 point). Exports downturned in Q4 (–0.6% after +0.7%) and imports‘ decline increased (–0.8% after –0.5%). Ultimately, foreign trade balance contributed again positively to GDP growth in Q4 : +0.1 point after +0.3 point the previous quarter. On the contrary, changes in inventories continued to weigh down on GDP growth in Q4: –0.4 point, after –0.3 point the previous quarter.
Total production decreased
In 2012 Q4, production in goods and service decreased (–0.5% after +0.3%). Production in manufactured goods stepped back (–2.3% after +0.9%) : except in food products, every activity contributed to this decrease, the sharpest one since 2009 Q1. Besides, production in tradable services held steady (0.0% after +0.3%) and production in construction declined (-0.8% after 0.0%). Over the year, total production remained sluggish: +0.1%, after +1.9% in 2011.
GFCF markedly declined
In 2012 Q4, the decline in total GFCF increased (–1.0% after –0.5%), it weighed down on GDP growth
graphiqueGraph1 – GDP and its main components
tableauTab1 – GOODS AND SERVICES: SUPPLY AND USES CHAIN-LINKED VOLUMES
| 2012 Q1 | 2012 Q2 | 2012 Q3 | 2012 Q4 | 2011 | 2012 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP | -0.1 | -0.1 | 0.1 | -0.3 | 1.7 | 0.0 |
| Imports | 0.2 | 1.4 | -0.5 | -0.8 | 5.2 | -0.3 |
| Households' consumption *expenditure | 0.1 | -0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| General government's *consumption expenditure | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 1.4 |
| GFCF | -1.0 | 0.3 | -0.5 | -1.0 | 3.5 | 0.0 |
| *of which Non financial corporated and unincorporated enterprises | -1.5 | 0.3 | -0.8 | -1.2 | 5.1 | -0.7 |
| Households | -0.4 | 0.0 | -0.1 | -0.8 | 3.2 | 0.6 |
| General government | -0.7 | 0.6 | -0.2 | -0.9 | -1.8 | 0.2 |
| Exports | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.7 | -0.6 | 5.5 | 2.3 |
| Contributions : | ||||||
| Internal demand excluding inventory changes | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| Inventory changes | -0.1 | 0.2 | -0.3 | -0.4 | 0.8 | -1.1 |
| Net foreign trade | 0.0 | -0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.7 |
tableauTab2 – Sectoral accounts
| 2012 Q1 | 2012 Q2 | 2012 Q3 | 2012 Q4 | 2011 | 2012 (ovhg) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit ratio of NFC* (level) | 27.8 | 28.1 | 28.2 | 28.5 | ||
| Household purchasing power | -0.1 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 |
- *NFC: non-financial corporations
tableauTab3 – GDP and components : prices indices
| 2012 Q1 | 2012 Q2 | 2012 Q3 | 2012 Q4 | 2011 | 2012 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 1.3 | 1.6 |
| Imports | 1.0 | -0.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 5.4 | 1.9 |
| Cons. Exp. : | ||||||
| - Households | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 2.1 | 1.7 |
| - GG* | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 1.4 | 0.7 |
| Total GFCF | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 2.9 | 2.1 |
| - of which Households | 0.8 | 0.9 | -0.4 | 0.5 | 3.8 | 2.6 |
| - of which NFE | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 2.3 | 1.9 |
| - of which GG | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 3.6 | 2.1 |
| Exports | 0.7 | -0.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 3.2 | 1.4 |
- *GG: General Government
tableauTab4 – Manufactured goods : supply and uses in volume
| 2012 Q1 | 2012 Q2 | 2012 Q3 | 2012 Q4 | 2011 | 2012 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industrie’s production | -1.3 | -1.0 | 0.9 | -2.3 | 3.2 | -2.2 |
| - of which value added | -1.0 | -0.7 | 0.6 | -2.0 | 0.7 | -2.4 |
| Imports | 0.8 | 2.3 | -1.3 | -1.7 | 6.7 | 0.2 |
| Intermediate uses | -0.5 | -0.5 | 0.5 | -1.3 | 2.9 | -0.8 |
| Cons. Exp. : | ||||||
| - of households | -0.6 | -0.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.9 | -0.7 |
| - of GG | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 1.3 | 3.6 | 4.3 |
| Total GFCF | -3.5 | -0.1 | -1.1 | -2.3 | 7.3 | -3.1 |
| - of which NFC | -3.9 | -0.1 | -1.2 | -2.6 | 7.6 | -3.6 |
| - of which GG | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | -0.5 | 2.2 |
| Exports | 1.0 | 0.3 | 1.3 | -1.5 | 4.5 | 3.3 |
| Inventory changes (contribution) | -0.5 | 0.7 | -1.1 | -1.4 | 1.9 | -3.0 |
tableauTab5 – Households’ disposable income and ratios of households’ account
| 2012 Q1 | 2012 Q2 | 2012 Q3 | 2012 Q4 | 2011 | 2012 (ovhg) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HDI | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 2.6 | 1.6 | |
| Household purchasing power | -0.1 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | |
| HDI by cu* (purchasing power) | -0.2 | 0.2 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.6 | |
| Adjusted HDI (purchasing power) | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | |
| Saving rate (level) | 16.0 | 16.4 | 16.2 | 16.2 | ||
| Financial saving rate (level) | 6.8 | 7.2 | 7.1 | 7.1 |
- *cu: consumption unit
tableauTab6 – Ratios of non-financial corporations’ account
| 2012 Q1 | 2012 Q2 | 2012 Q3 | 2012 Q4 | 2011 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit share | 27.8 | 28.1 | 28.2 | 28.5 | |
| Investment ratio | 20.2 | 20.2 | 19.9 | 20.1 | |
| Savings ratio | 13.0 | 13.4 | 13.4 | 13.5 | |
| Self-financing ratio | 64.0 | 66.1 | 67.4 | 66.9 |
up to –0.2 point. Expenditure in construction (–0.9% after –0.1%) and in manufactured goods (–2.3% after –1.1%) both contributed negatively. Concerning services, the decline of expenditure in information and communication compensated the increase of those in business services. Over the year, GFCF stalled (0.0% after +3.5% in 2011).
Consumption slightly decelerated
In 2012 Q4 households’ consumption slightly decelerated: +0.2% after +0.3%. Households’ consumption in food products downturned (–1.0% after +0.6%) and households’ consumption in energy held steady (+0.1% after –2.3%). The expenditure in other goods increased, buoyed up by car purchases bouncing in December. Furthermore, expenditure in services increased again at the same rhythm as in the previous quarter (+0.2%), driven on by rents, transports and accommodation and food services. Over the year, households’ expenditure didn’t grow (0.0% after +0.2% in 2011).
Foreign trade decreased
In 2012 Q4, exports declined (–0.6% after +0.7%), notably in transport equipments (–6.8% after +7.7%). At the same time, imports went on decreasing (–0.8% after –0.5%), particularly in market products (–1.7% after –1.3%). Overall, foreign trade balance improved and contributed positively to GDP evolution: +0.1 point, after +0.3 point in the previous quarter. Over the year, exports increased again (+2.3% after +5.5%) and imports declined (–0.3% after +5.2%); the contribution of the foreign trade balance to GDP growth is +0.7 point after 0.0 point in 2011.
Changes in inventories contributed negatively
Changes in inventories contributed negatively to GDP growth: –0.4 point this quarter and –1.1 over the year.
Revisions
GDP growth in 2012 Q3 is still estimated at 0.1%. However, GDP estimation in 2012 Q1 is scaled down (–0.1% against 0,0% in the previous publication) and GDP estimation in 2011 Q4 is scaled up (+0.1% against 0.0% the previous publication). These revisions are mainly due to the update of seasonal and working day adjustment.
Pour en savoir plus
Time series : Operations on goods and services
Time series : Gross domestic product balance
Time series : Institutional sector accounts
Time series : Branch accounts
