French GDP stepped back in 2012 Q4 (–0.3%), no growth for 2012Quarterly national accounts - second estimate - 4st Quarter 2012

In 2012 Q4, French gross domestic product (GDP) in volume* stepped back (–0.3%), after +0.1% the previous quarter. Over the year, GDP growth was null in 2012, after +1.7% in 2011.

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Informations rapides – No 35
Paru le : 02/14/2013
Prochaine parution le : 02/28/2017 at 08:45 - fourth quarter 2016

In 2012 Q4, French gross domestic product (GDP) in volume* stepped back (–0.3%), after +0.1% the previous quarter. Over the year, GDP growth was null in 2012, after +1.7% in 2011.

Households’ consumption expenditure slightly increased at the end of the year (+0.2% after +0.3%). Their growth are overcompensated by the new step back (–1.0% after –0.5%) of gross fixed capital formation (GFCF). Therefore, total domestic demand (excluding inventory changes) was neutral on GDP evolution (after +0.1 point). Exports downturned in Q4 (–0.6% after +0.7%) and imports‘ decline increased (–0.8% after –0.5%). Ultimately, foreign trade balance contributed again positively to GDP growth in Q4 : +0.1 point after +0.3 point the previous quarter. On the contrary, changes in inventories continued to weigh down on GDP growth in Q4: –0.4 point, after –0.3 point the previous quarter.

Total production decreased

In 2012 Q4, production in goods and service decreased (–0.5% after +0.3%). Production in manufactured goods stepped back (–2.3% after +0.9%) : except in food products, every activity contributed to this decrease, the sharpest one since 2009 Q1. Besides, production in tradable services held steady (0.0% after +0.3%) and production in construction declined (-0.8% after 0.0%). Over the year, total production remained sluggish: +0.1%, after +1.9% in 2011.

GFCF markedly declined

In 2012 Q4, the decline in total GFCF increased (–1.0% after –0.5%), it weighed down on GDP growth

Graph1 – GDP and its main components

Tab1 – GOODS AND SERVICES: SUPPLY AND USES CHAIN-LINKED VOLUMES

percentage change from previous period,trading-days and seasonally adjusted data
GOODS AND SERVICES: SUPPLY AND USES CHAIN-LINKED VOLUMES
2012 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2011 2012
GDP -0.1 -0.1 0.1 -0.3 1.7 0.0
Imports 0.2 1.4 -0.5 -0.8 5.2 -0.3
Households' consumption *expenditure 0.1 -0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0
General government's *consumption expenditure 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2 1.4
GFCF -1.0 0.3 -0.5 -1.0 3.5 0.0
*of which Non financial corporated and unincorporated enterprises -1.5 0.3 -0.8 -1.2 5.1 -0.7
Households -0.4 0.0 -0.1 -0.8 3.2 0.6
General government -0.7 0.6 -0.2 -0.9 -1.8 0.2
Exports 0.1 0.3 0.7 -0.6 5.5 2.3
Contributions :        
Internal demand excluding inventory changes 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.9 0.3
Inventory changes -0.1 0.2 -0.3 -0.4 0.8 -1.1
Net foreign trade 0.0 -0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.7

    Tab2 – Sectoral accounts

    percentage change from previous period,trading-days and seasonally adjusted data
    Sectoral accounts
    2012 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2011 2012 (ovhg)
    Profit ratio of NFC* (level) 27.8 28.1 28.2   28.5
    Household purchasing power -0.1 0.4 0.0   0.5 0.0
    • *NFC: non-financial corporations

    Tab3 – GDP and components : prices indices

    percentage change from previous period,trading-days and seasonally adjusted data
    GDP and components : prices indices
    2012 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2011 2012
    GDP 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.4 1.3 1.6
    Imports 1.0 -0.5 0.4 0.1 5.4 1.9
    Cons. Exp. :      
    - Households 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.3 2.1 1.7
    - GG* 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 1.4 0.7
    Total GFCF 0.7 0.4 0.0 0.3 2.9 2.1
    - of which Households 0.8 0.9 -0.4 0.5 3.8 2.6
    - of which NFE 0.8 0.3 0.2 0.3 2.3 1.9
    - of which GG 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.4 3.6 2.1
    Exports 0.7 -0.3 0.8 0.3 3.2 1.4
    • *GG: General Government

    Tab4 – Manufactured goods : supply and uses in volume

    percentage change from previous period,trading-days and seasonally adjusted data
    Manufactured goods : supply and uses in volume
    2012 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2011 2012
    Industrie’s production -1.3 -1.0 0.9 -2.3 3.2 -2.2
    - of which value added -1.0 -0.7 0.6 -2.0 0.7 -2.4
    Imports 0.8 2.3 -1.3 -1.7 6.7 0.2
    Intermediate uses -0.5 -0.5 0.5 -1.3 2.9 -0.8
    Cons. Exp. :      
    - of households -0.6 -0.6 0.6 0.1 0.9 -0.7
    - of GG 1.8 1.1 0.3 1.3 3.6 4.3
    Total GFCF -3.5 -0.1 -1.1 -2.3 7.3 -3.1
    - of which NFC -3.9 -0.1 -1.2 -2.6 7.6 -3.6
    - of which GG 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.3 -0.5 2.2
    Exports 1.0 0.3 1.3 -1.5 4.5 3.3
    Inventory changes (contribution) -0.5 0.7 -1.1 -1.4 1.9 -3.0

      Tab5 – Households’ disposable income and ratios of households’ account

      percentage change from previous period,trading-days and seasonally adjusted data
      Households’ disposable income and ratios of households’ account
      2012 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2011 2012 (ovhg)
      HDI 0.6 0.5 0.2   2.6 1.6
      Household purchasing power -0.1 0.4 0.0 0.5 0.0
      HDI by cu* (purchasing power) -0.2 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.6
      Adjusted HDI (purchasing power) 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.8 0.3
      Saving rate (level) 16.0 16.4 16.2 16.2
      Financial saving rate (level) 6.8 7.2 7.1   7.1
      • *cu: consumption unit

      Tab6 – Ratios of non-financial corporations’ account

      percentage change from previous period,trading-days and seasonally adjusted data
      Ratios of non-financial corporations’ account
      2012 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2011
      Profit share 27.8 28.1 28.2   28.5
      Investment ratio 20.2 20.2 19.9   20.1
      Savings ratio 13.0 13.4 13.4   13.5
      Self-financing ratio 64.0 66.1 67.4   66.9

        up to –0.2 point. Expenditure in construction (–0.9% after –0.1%) and in manufactured goods (–2.3% after –1.1%) both contributed negatively. Concerning services, the decline of expenditure in information and communication compensated the increase of those in business services. Over the year, GFCF stalled (0.0% after +3.5% in 2011).

        Consumption slightly decelerated

        In 2012 Q4 households’ consumption slightly decelerated: +0.2% after +0.3%. Households’ consumption in food products downturned (–1.0% after +0.6%) and households’ consumption in energy held steady (+0.1% after –2.3%). The expenditure in other goods increased, buoyed up by car purchases bouncing in December. Furthermore, expenditure in services increased again at the same rhythm as in the previous quarter (+0.2%), driven on by rents, transports and accommodation and food services. Over the year, households’ expenditure didn’t grow (0.0% after +0.2% in 2011).

        Foreign trade decreased

        In 2012 Q4, exports declined (–0.6% after +0.7%), notably in transport equipments (–6.8% after +7.7%). At the same time, imports went on decreasing (–0.8% after –0.5%), particularly in market products (–1.7% after –1.3%). Overall, foreign trade balance improved and contributed positively to GDP evolution: +0.1 point, after +0.3 point in the previous quarter. Over the year, exports increased again (+2.3% after +5.5%) and imports declined (–0.3% after +5.2%); the contribution of the foreign trade balance to GDP growth is +0.7 point after 0.0 point in 2011.

        Changes in inventories contributed negatively

        Changes in inventories contributed negatively to GDP growth: –0.4 point this quarter and –1.1 over the year.

        Revisions

        GDP growth in 2012 Q3 is still estimated at 0.1%. However, GDP estimation in 2012 Q1 is scaled down (–0.1% against 0,0% in the previous publication) and GDP estimation in 2011 Q4 is scaled up (+0.1% against 0.0% the previous publication). These revisions are mainly due to the update of seasonal and working day adjustment.