Industrial investment survey – april 2009Industrial investment survey - April 2009

Surveyed in April 2009, business managers in the manufacturing industry indicate they had maintained their investment in value terms in 2008 at the same level than in 2007. They revise upwards by one point their previous forecasts delivered in January 2009.

Informations rapides
No 131
Paru le : 13/05/2009
Prochaine parution le : 07/11/2017 at 08:45 - October 2017
Sommaire
  1. Commentaire
  2. Tableau

Commentaire

Surveyed in April 2009, business managers in the manufacturing industry indicate they had maintained their investment in value terms in 2008 at the same level than in 2007. They revise upwards by one point their previous forecasts delivered in January 2009.

For 2009, surveyed managers anticipate a sharp drop in their equipment expenditures: 21% in the manufacturing industry and 18% in the industry as a whole. They emphasize their previous forecasts of reduction in the investment delivered in January 2009, by 9 points for the manufacturing industry and by 6 points for the industry as a whole. The drop would be historical in investment’s sector (-30%) and motor vehicles’ sector (-24%).

Regarding half-year change, business managers are unusually numerous to mention a step backwards of their investments during the first half-year. They are, moreover, very pessimistic concerning their equipement expenditures in H2 2009.

Tableau

Tableau 1 – Annual change in nominal investment (%), manufacturing industry

Annual change in nominal investment (%), manufacturing industry
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Manufacturing industry
Forecast in October of previous year (n-1) 2 5 -1 0 4 3 -3
Forecast in January of current year (n) 8 5 3 5 7 7 -12
Forecast in April of current year (n) 8 5 4 5 7 8 -21
Forecast in July of current year (n) 2 6 3 4 7 6
Forecast in October of current year (n) -4 3 0 2 5 1
Forecast in January of following year (n+1) -4 2 -4 0 3 -1
Actual value observed in April of following year (n+1) -6 0 -2 0 4 0
Actual value observed in July of following year (n+1) -6 0 -2 1 4
  • The actual rate of change of investment in year n is defined as the value observed in the April survey year n+1, for years from 1991 to 2001, and in the July survey since year 2002. For the same year n, the surveys of October years n and n-1 yield two forecasts of the change in investment, respectively designated in the table as "Forecast in October of current year (n)" and "Forecast in October of previous year (n-1)." The January surveys in years n and n+1 also provide two forecasts of the change in investment, respectively designated in the table as "Forecast in January of current year (n)" and "Forecast in January of following year (n+1)." The April year n survey also yields a forecast of the change in investment in the current year, referred to as the "Forecast in April of current year (n)".
  • Source : INSEE