13 May 2009
2009- n° 131Industrial investment survey – april 2009 Industrial investment survey - April 2009
Surveyed in April 2009, business managers in the manufacturing industry indicate they had maintained their investment in value terms in 2008 at the same level than in 2007. They revise upwards by one point their previous forecasts delivered in January 2009.
Commentaire
Surveyed in April 2009, business managers in the manufacturing industry indicate they had maintained their investment in value terms in 2008 at the same level than in 2007. They revise upwards by one point their previous forecasts delivered in January 2009.
For 2009, surveyed managers anticipate a sharp drop in their equipment expenditures: 21% in the manufacturing industry and 18% in the industry as a whole. They emphasize their previous forecasts of reduction in the investment delivered in January 2009, by 9 points for the manufacturing industry and by 6 points for the industry as a whole. The drop would be historical in investment’s sector (-30%) and motor vehicles’ sector (-24%).
Regarding half-year change, business managers are unusually numerous to mention a step backwards of their investments during the first half-year. They are, moreover, very pessimistic concerning their equipement expenditures in H2 2009.
Tableau
tableauTableau 1 – Annual change in nominal investment (%), manufacturing industry
| 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manufacturing industry | |||||||
| Forecast in October of previous year (n-1) | 2 | 5 | -1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | -3 |
| Forecast in January of current year (n) | 8 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 7 | -12 |
| Forecast in April of current year (n) | 8 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 8 | -21 |
| Forecast in July of current year (n) | 2 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 6 | |
| Forecast in October of current year (n) | -4 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 1 | |
| Forecast in January of following year (n+1) | -4 | 2 | -4 | 0 | 3 | -1 | |
| Actual value observed in April of following year (n+1) | -6 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 4 | 0 | |
| Actual value observed in July of following year (n+1) | -6 | 0 | -2 | 1 | 4 | ||
- The actual rate of change of investment in year n is defined as the value observed in the April survey year n+1, for years from 1991 to 2001, and in the July survey since year 2002. For the same year n, the surveys of October years n and n-1 yield two forecasts of the change in investment, respectively designated in the table as "Forecast in October of current year (n)" and "Forecast in October of previous year (n-1)." The January surveys in years n and n+1 also provide two forecasts of the change in investment, respectively designated in the table as "Forecast in January of current year (n)" and "Forecast in January of following year (n+1)." The April year n survey also yields a forecast of the change in investment in the current year, referred to as the "Forecast in April of current year (n)".
- Source : INSEE
Documentation
Methodology (pdf,34 Ko)
Pour en savoir plus
Time series : Industry – Investment
