In Q2 2015, French GDP was stableQuarterly national accounts - second estimate - 2nd quarter 2015

In Q2 2015, GDP in volume terms* was stable: 0.0% after +0.7% in Q1 2015.

Publications for experts
Informations rapides – No 195
Paru le : 08/14/2015
Prochaine parution le : 02/28/2017 at 08:45 - fourth quarter 2016

In Q2 2015, GDP in volume terms* was stable: 0.0% after +0.7% in Q1 2015.

Household consumption expenditure decelerated sharply (+0.1% after +0.9%) while their total gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) decreased again (–1.6% after –1.1%). Non-financial corporations and general government investment also slowed down. Overall, total domestic demand (excluding inventory changes) decelerated strongly: it contributed for +0.1 points to GDP growth (after +0.6 points in Q1 2015).

Imports slowed (+0.6% after +2.2%) while exports accelerated (+1.7% after 1.3%). All in all, the foreign trade balance contributed positively to GDP growth (+0.3 points after –0.3 points). Conversely, changes in inventories contributed negatively: –0.4 points after +0.3 points in the previous quarter.

Total production was almost stable

In Q2 2015, production in goods and services was almost stable (–0.1% after +0.8%). Output in the manufactured goods decreased strongly (–0.7% after +1.3%), notably in coke and refined petroleum (–9.6% after +6.5%) due to some refineries shutdowns, and in transport equipment (–1.3% after +5.5%). In contrast, production in equipment goods recovered (+2.1% after –2.1%). Production in tradable services kept rising but at a slower rate (+0.3% after +0.8%) and output in construction shrank again (–1.1% after –0.8%).

Households’ consumption decelerated strongly

In Q2 2015, households’ consumption expenditure decelerated strongly (+0.1% after +0.9%). Expenditure on energy-water-waste stepped back (–2.2% after +3.7%), particularly in electricity and gas. Consumption in engineered goods declined (–0.1% after +1.7%), notably in clothing and pharmaceutical expenditure. Otherwise, consumption in services increased moderately (+0.2% after +0.3%).

* This growth rate is seasonally and working-day adjusted; volumes are chain-linked previous-year-prices volumes.

Graph1 – GDP and its main components

Tab1 – Goods and services:supply and uses chain-linked volumes

percentage change from previous period ,working-day and seasonally adjusted data
Goods and services:supply and uses chain-linked volumes
2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2015 Q1 2015 Q2 2014 2015 (ovhg)
GDP 0.2 0.1 0.7 0.0 0.2 0.8
Imports 1.8 1.8 2.2 0.6 3.9 5.1
Household consumption *expenditure 0.4 0.2 0.9 0.1 0.6 1.5
General government's *consumption expenditure 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.3 1.5 1.5
GFCF -0.4 -0.3 0.0 -0.3 -1.2 -0.8
*of which Non-financial corporated and unincorporated enterprises 0.3 0.0 0.6 0.2 2.0 0.9
Households -1.1 -0.8 -1.2 -1.6 -5.3 -3.9
General government -2.4 -0.7 0.2 -0.1 -6.9 -2.2
Exports 1.0 2.8 1.3 1.7 2.4 5.3
Contributions :        
Internal demand excluding inventory changes 0.3 0.2 0.6 0.1 0.5 1.0
Inventory changes 0.2 -0.3 0.3 -0.4 0.2 -0.1
Net foreign trade -0.2 0.2 -0.3 0.3 -0.5 -0.1

    Tab2 – Sectoral accounts

    percentage change from previous period, working-day and seasonally adjusted data
    Sectoral accounts
    2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2015 Q1 2015 Q2 2014 2015 (ovhg)
    Profit ratio of NFC* (level) 29.4 29.8 31.1   29.5  
    Household purchasing power 0.5 0.0 1.2   1.1 1.5
    • *NFC: non-financial corporations

    Tab3 – Production, Consumption and GFCF: main components

    percentage change from previous period, working-day and seasonally adjusted data
    Production, Consumption and GFCF: main components
    2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2015 Q1 2015 Q2 2014 2015 (ovhg)
    Production of branches 0.4 0.1 0.8 -0.1 0.7 1.0
    Goods 0.8 -0.2 1.5 -0.9 0.1 1.0
    Manufactured Industry 0.6 0.2 1.3 -0.7 0.3 1.0
    Construction -0.8 -0.7 -0.8 -1.1 -2.2 -2.9
    Market services 0.5 0.4 0.8 0.3 1.2 1.6
    Non-market services 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 1.3 1.1
    Household consumption 0.4 0.2 0.9 0.1 0.6 1.5
    Food products -0.2 0.4 0.2 0.8 0.2 1.1
    Energy 0.7 -1.7 3.7 -2.2 -5.7 1.6
    Engineered goods 0.5 0.5 1.7 -0.1 1.9 2.2
    Services 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.7 0.7
    GFCF -0.4 -0.3 0.0 -0.3 -1.2 -0.8
    Manufactured goods 0.2 -0.2 1.2 0.1 1.3 1.1
    Construction -1.2 -0.7 -1.1 -1.3 -3.4 -3.5
    Market services 0.2 0.2 0.9 0.7 0.4 1.8

      Tab4 – Households’ disposable income and ratios of households’ account

      percentage change from previous period, working-day and seasonally adjusted data
      Households’ disposable income and ratios of households’ account
      2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2015 Q1 2015 Q2 2014 2015 (ovhg)
      HDI 0.4 -0.1 1.1   1.1 1.3
      Household purchasing power 0.5 0.0 1.2 1.1 1.5
      HDI by cu* (purchasing power) 0.4 -0.1 1.1 0.7 1.3
      Adjusted HDI (purchasing power) 0.5 0.1 1.0 1.3 1.5
      Saving rate (level) 15.2 15.0 15.2 15.1  
      Financial saving rate (level) 6.2 6.0 6.3   6.0  
      • *cu: consumption unit

      Tab5 – Ratios of non-financial corporations’ account

      level (in percent), WDA-SA data
      Ratios of non-financial corporations’ account
      2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2015 Q1 2015 Q2 2014
      Profit share 29.4 29.8 31.1   29.5
      Investment ratio 23.2 23.0 22.7   23.1
      Savings ratio 17.4 18.3 19.2   17.4
      Self-financing ratio 75.0 79.9 84.6   75.2

        Tab6 – Expenditure, receipts and net borrowing of public administrations

        level, WDA-SA data
        Expenditure, receipts and net borrowing of public administrations
        2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2015 Q1 2015 Q2 2014
        In billions of euros      
        Total expenditure 306.9 307.5 309.9   1226.5
        Total receipts 285.6 286.3 288.9   1141.7
        Net lending (+) or borrowing (-) -21.4 -21.1 -21.0   -84.9
        In % of GDP      
        Net lending (+) or borrowing (-) -4.0 -3.9 -3.9   -4.0

          Households’ investment decreased again, non-financial corporations’ grew very weakly

          Total GFCF declined in Q2 2015 (–0.3% after 0.0%). Investment in construction decreased for the eighth consecutive quarter (–1.3% after –1.1%). Excluding construction, GFCF increased (+0.4% after +1.0%). Investment in manufactured goods decelerated (+0.1% after +1.2%). Expenses in market services kept rising (+0.7% after +0.9%). Non-financial corporations’ GFCF slowed down (+0.2% after +0.6%), general government’s declined slightly (–0.1% after +0.2%). The decrease in households’ GFCF worsened (–1.6% after –1.2%).

          Exports were in upward trend

          In Q2 2015, exports accelerated (+1.7% after +1.3%), especially in transport equipment (+8.2% after +0.1%). Conversely, exports in coke and refined petroleum products stepped back sharply (–7.5% after +13.0%).

          At the same time imports decelerated (+0.6% after +2.2%), notably due to a strong decrease in expenditures on unrefined petroleum products and the slowdown in transport equipment (+4.1% after +5.5%). Thus, foreign trade drove activity this quarter (+0.3 points to GDP after –0.3 points).

          Changes in inventories weighed down on activity

          Changes in inventories accounted for –0.4 points to GDP growth this quarter, after +0.3 points. The negative contribution concerned mostly transport equipment and refined petroleum.

          Revisions

          In Q2 the growth rate of GDP is slightly upscaled (from +0.6% to +0.7%) compared to the previous release.