2006-2050 labour force projections for mainland France : a steady number of active workers whereas the elderly are more and more numerous.

Élise COUDIN

The set of labour force projections for mainland France incorporates the new Insee population 2005-2050 projections and the latest information from the Labour Force Survey. That exercise also takes into account the recent pension reforms. According to the baseline scenario, which is based on the main tendancies for population growth and participation on the labour market, the labour force may increase at the same speed as before until 2007, and then, at a reduced speed up to 2015. Between 2015 and 2050, the mainland French labour force will remain between 28.2 and 28.5 million. A higher participation is expected for women and older workers. However, ageing will cause the ratio of active persons to non working persons over 60 to decrease from 2.2 to 1.4 between 2005 and 2050. Alternative scenarii, which take different assumptions for the demographic and activity evolutions, are also presented. Contrary to fecondity, alternative assumptions on migrations have an immediate effect on the projected labour force level. However, these variants have no effect on the ratio of active persons to non working persons over 60.

Documents de travail
No F0704.pdf
Paru le : 01/03/2007