Household forecasts

Dernière mise à jour le : 08/12/2011

Présentation de l'opération

Organisme producteur :

Insee. Direction des statistiques démographiques et sociales (DSDS)

Objectifs :

The household forecasts are used to assess potential demand for housing. The starting point for these forecasts is the population forecasts.

Based on the cohabitation behaviour trend hypotheses, the household forecasts are used to assess the number of households, as well as the mean number of people per household, up to 2030 (forecast period: 2005-2030).

Champ de l'opération

Champ géographique :

Metropolitan France

Caractéristiques techniques

Périodicité de l'opération :

INSEE produces household forecasts after each census (as well as population forecasts).

Méthodologie :

The population is firstly broken down by gender, age and form of cohabitation.

For both sexes and every age, the breakdown of the population by forms of cohabitation is presumed to develop in a "trend-based" manner (i.e. the trends observed over the last ten or twenty years in terms of forms of cohabitation are extended) over the forecast period (2005-2030).

The forms of cohabitation are presumed to develop over the whole projection period at a sustained rate, without decreasing, whereas the previous forecasts (2000-2030) were based on a progressive decrease.

Subsequently, individuals are converted into households by applying a "reference person" rate to the population of each cross-tabulated group (sex x age x form of cohabitation).

The reference person rate is one for people living alone (they are inevitably reference persons) and zero for women in a couple and for children (who are conventionally not reference persons).

The reference person rates for the other categories are set to the values observed in 2005.

Three scenarios are considered. Each takes into account a different contribution of the cohabitation behaviours to the growth of the number of households over the forecast period: more or less similar to the growth observed over the 1990-1999 and 1999-2005 periods.

Variations are developed based on these scenarios: they are used to illustrate the sensitivity of the results to demographic assumptions, as well as those relating to cohabitation behaviour.

The death rate, birth rate and migration variations are the same as those that were applied to the population forecast.

In terms of cohabitation behaviour, variations are also studied (e.g. impact of leaving the parental home at a younger age).