Informations Rapides ·
21 February 2025 · n° 45
In February 2025, the business climate has brightened in services Monthly survey of services - February 2025
According to the business managers surveyed in February 2025, the business climate in services has brightened. At 98, the indicator that synthesizes it has gained two points, but remains below its long-term average (100). This increase is mainly the result of the rebound in the balances of opinion on the expected demand and on the past activity.
- The business managers are more optimistic about their personal business outlook and past activity
- The business climate has improved in information and communication and in professional, scientific and technical activities, but has sharply darkened in administrative and support services
- Revision
- For further information
According to the business managers surveyed in February 2025, the business climate in services has brightened. At 98, the indicator that synthesizes it has gained two points, but remains below its long-term average (100). This increase is mainly the result of the rebound in the balances of opinion on the expected demand and on the past activity.
tableauBusiness climate composite indicator
| Business climate composite indicator | |
|---|---|
| 2025-02 | 97.8 |
| 2025-01 | 96.1 |
| 2024-12 | 96.5 |
| 2024-11 | 98.4 |
| 2024-10 | 100.8 |
| 2024-09 | 99.2 |
| 2024-08 | 98.0 |
| 2024-07 | 95.1 |
| 2024-06 | 101.1 |
| 2024-05 | 102.4 |
| 2024-04 | 100.1 |
| 2024-03 | 101.8 |
| 2024-02 | 99.9 |
| 2024-01 | 101.1 |
| 2023-12 | 100.3 |
| 2023-11 | 100.0 |
| 2023-10 | 100.5 |
| 2023-09 | 101.4 |
| 2023-08 | 101.7 |
| 2023-07 | 101.5 |
| 2023-06 | 101.6 |
| 2023-05 | 101.4 |
| 2023-04 | 103.0 |
| 2023-03 | 103.6 |
| 2023-02 | 105.3 |
| 2023-01 | 104.1 |
| 2022-12 | 103.6 |
| 2022-11 | 103.9 |
| 2022-10 | 105.0 |
| 2022-09 | 105.6 |
| 2022-08 | 106.6 |
| 2022-07 | 106.1 |
| 2022-06 | 107.4 |
| 2022-05 | 109.0 |
| 2022-04 | 108.4 |
| 2022-03 | 108.0 |
| 2022-02 | 112.1 |
| 2022-01 | 105.0 |
| 2021-12 | 107.4 |
| 2021-11 | 114.1 |
| 2021-10 | 113.3 |
| 2021-09 | 110.5 |
| 2021-08 | 109.0 |
| 2021-07 | 111.2 |
| 2021-06 | 112.7 |
| 2021-05 | 106.9 |
| 2021-04 | 91.4 |
| 2021-03 | 93.2 |
| 2021-02 | 87.6 |
| 2021-01 | 90.8 |
| 2020-12 | 89.2 |
| 2020-11 | 75.5 |
| 2020-10 | 87.5 |
| 2020-09 | 93.7 |
| 2020-08 | 93.6 |
| 2020-07 | 88.6 |
| 2020-06 | 77.4 |
| 2020-05 | 49.0 |
| 2020-04 | 37.7 |
| 2020-03 | 91.7 |
| 2020-02 | 105.9 |
| 2020-01 | 106.1 |
| 2019-12 | 106.5 |
| 2019-11 | 106.0 |
| 2019-10 | 105.6 |
| 2019-09 | 106.0 |
| 2019-08 | 105.5 |
| 2019-07 | 105.0 |
| 2019-06 | 105.8 |
| 2019-05 | 105.6 |
| 2019-04 | 105.6 |
| 2019-03 | 104.4 |
| 2019-02 | 103.7 |
| 2019-01 | 103.5 |
| 2018-12 | 101.8 |
| 2018-11 | 103.6 |
| 2018-10 | 103.3 |
| 2018-09 | 104.7 |
| 2018-08 | 104.4 |
| 2018-07 | 104.7 |
| 2018-06 | 104.7 |
| 2018-05 | 104.3 |
| 2018-04 | 105.9 |
| 2018-03 | 106.9 |
| 2018-02 | 107.0 |
| 2018-01 | 107.8 |
| 2017-12 | 108.9 |
| 2017-11 | 107.2 |
| 2017-10 | 106.7 |
| 2017-09 | 106.8 |
| 2017-08 | 106.8 |
| 2017-07 | 104.1 |
| 2017-06 | 103.5 |
| 2017-05 | 102.9 |
| 2017-04 | 103.2 |
| 2017-03 | 103.1 |
| 2017-02 | 102.9 |
| 2017-01 | 101.7 |
| 2016-12 | 103.6 |
| 2016-11 | 101.0 |
| 2016-10 | 100.8 |
| 2016-09 | 100.8 |
| 2016-08 | 100.1 |
| 2016-07 | 100.4 |
| 2016-06 | 99.2 |
| 2016-05 | 100.8 |
| 2016-04 | 98.3 |
| 2016-03 | 99.5 |
| 2016-02 | 99.9 |
| 2016-01 | 100.2 |
| 2015-12 | 97.1 |
| 2015-11 | 99.3 |
| 2015-10 | 99.5 |
| 2015-09 | 97.6 |
| 2015-08 | 98.5 |
| 2015-07 | 97.4 |
| 2015-06 | 96.8 |
| 2015-05 | 95.4 |
| 2015-04 | 93.9 |
| 2015-03 | 92.3 |
| 2015-02 | 91.4 |
| 2015-01 | 91.1 |
| 2014-12 | 91.2 |
| 2014-11 | 91.1 |
| 2014-10 | 91.0 |
| 2014-09 | 90.9 |
| 2014-08 | 91.4 |
| 2014-07 | 92.4 |
| 2014-06 | 92.2 |
| 2014-05 | 92.2 |
| 2014-04 | 93.2 |
| 2014-03 | 93.1 |
| 2014-02 | 92.1 |
| 2014-01 | 92.2 |
| 2013-12 | 90.8 |
| 2013-11 | 92.3 |
| 2013-10 | 91.8 |
| 2013-09 | 92.3 |
| 2013-08 | 88.6 |
| 2013-07 | 86.5 |
| 2013-06 | 85.8 |
| 2013-05 | 84.4 |
| 2013-04 | 83.0 |
| 2013-03 | 84.0 |
| 2013-02 | 87.0 |
| 2013-01 | 88.0 |
| 2012-12 | 87.0 |
| 2012-11 | 85.4 |
| 2012-10 | 85.9 |
| 2012-09 | 87.0 |
| 2012-08 | 87.3 |
| 2012-07 | 89.5 |
| 2012-06 | 90.0 |
| 2012-05 | 91.9 |
| 2012-04 | 95.6 |
| 2012-03 | 93.2 |
| 2012-02 | 91.8 |
| 2012-01 | 92.3 |
| 2011-12 | 94.4 |
| 2011-11 | 95.0 |
| 2011-10 | 97.2 |
| 2011-09 | 98.3 |
| 2011-08 | 100.6 |
| 2011-07 | 105.2 |
| 2011-06 | 107.2 |
| 2011-05 | 107.5 |
| 2011-04 | 109.0 |
| 2011-03 | 110.5 |
| 2011-02 | 109.3 |
| 2011-01 | 107.3 |
| 2010-12 | 106.9 |
| 2010-11 | 104.9 |
| 2010-10 | 102.9 |
| 2010-09 | 101.7 |
| 2010-08 | 100.7 |
| 2010-07 | 99.2 |
| 2010-06 | 98.3 |
| 2010-05 | 99.4 |
| 2010-04 | 97.8 |
| 2010-03 | 94.4 |
| 2010-02 | 94.3 |
| 2010-01 | 94.0 |
| 2009-12 | 92.6 |
| 2009-11 | 92.2 |
| 2009-10 | 90.6 |
| 2009-09 | 87.4 |
| 2009-08 | 84.0 |
| 2009-07 | 81.5 |
| 2009-06 | 77.6 |
| 2009-05 | 72.9 |
| 2009-04 | 68.6 |
| 2009-03 | 68.1 |
| 2009-02 | 73.3 |
| 2009-01 | 74.5 |
| 2008-12 | 77.1 |
| 2008-11 | 80.0 |
| 2008-10 | 84.1 |
| 2008-09 | 92.9 |
| 2008-08 | 94.9 |
| 2008-07 | 96.4 |
| 2008-06 | 100.9 |
| 2008-05 | 104.2 |
| 2008-04 | 106.7 |
| 2008-03 | 108.5 |
| 2008-02 | 108.6 |
| 2008-01 | 110.5 |
| 2007-12 | 109.1 |
| 2007-11 | 110.3 |
| 2007-10 | 110.2 |
| 2007-09 | 111.6 |
| 2007-08 | 112.4 |
| 2007-07 | 113.3 |
| 2007-06 | 112.8 |
| 2007-05 | 113.1 |
| 2007-04 | 113.2 |
| 2007-03 | 113.5 |
| 2007-02 | 112.6 |
| 2007-01 | 111.0 |
| 2006-12 | 111.4 |
| 2006-11 | 113.2 |
| 2006-10 | 110.9 |
| 2006-09 | 110.8 |
| 2006-08 | 110.6 |
| 2006-07 | 110.5 |
| 2006-06 | 109.2 |
| 2006-05 | 110.6 |
| 2006-04 | 107.8 |
| 2006-03 | 107.5 |
| 2006-02 | 106.3 |
| 2006-01 | 109.2 |
| 2005-12 | 107.1 |
| 2005-11 | 106.6 |
| 2005-10 | 108.5 |
| 2005-09 | 106.9 |
| 2005-08 | 107.3 |
| 2005-07 | 107.6 |
| 2005-06 | 108.3 |
| 2005-05 | 106.2 |
| 2005-04 | 108.1 |
| 2005-03 | 108.4 |
| 2005-02 | 106.5 |
| 2005-01 | 106.5 |
graphiqueBusiness climate composite indicator
- Source: INSEE.
The business managers are more optimistic about their personal business outlook and past activity
In February 2025, the business managers in services are more optimistic than the previous month about their personal business outlook: the balance of opinion on the expected demand has sharply rebounded, and the one related to the expected activity over the next three months more moderately. Both remain nevertheless below their long-term average. At the same time, the balance concerning the activity over the past three months has rebounded and has moved above its average, for the first time since last May. The optimist of business managers is more moderated concerning the general business outlook for their sector: the associated balance of opinion is stable, just below its average level.
The balances related to the recent and expected selling prices change have diminished but remain above their respective average.
The balance on the economic uncertainty felt has slightly retreated.
The balance of opinion on the change in the workforce size over the last three months has sharply retreated and has moved away from its average. The one on the expected workforce size over the next three months has diminished for the third month in a row and has moved away from its average too.
tableauEconomic outlook in the services sector
| Average* | Nov. 2024 | Dec. 2024 | Jan. 2025 | Feb. 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Composite indicator | 100 | 98 | 96 | 96 | 98 |
| General outlook | -7 | -8 | -9 | -8 | -8 |
| Past activity | 2 | -1 | 1 | -3 | 4 |
| Expected activity | 1 | -1 | -3 | -4 | -2 |
| Expected demand | 0 | -1 | -5 | -7 | -3 |
| Past selling prices | -3 | -4 | 1 | 2 | -1 |
| Expected selling prices | -2 | -1 | 4 | 4 | -1 |
| Past employment | 2 | -3 | -8 | -5 | -10 |
| Past employment except temporary work agencies | 0 | -3 | -3 | -4 | -8 |
| Expected employment | 2 | -4 | -6 | -7 | -8 |
| Expected employment except temporary work agencies | 0 | -2 | -3 | -2 | -5 |
| Economic uncertainty felt** | 12 | 10 | 11 | 13 | 12 |
- * Average since 1989 for the composite indicator and since 1988 for the balances of opinion, except general outlook (June 2000) and uncertainty (April 2021).
- ** Balance of opinion not seasonally adjusted.
- Source: INSEE, monthly business survey in services.
The business climate has improved in information and communication and in professional, scientific and technical activities, but has sharply darkened in administrative and support services
In February 2025, the business climate indicator in information-communication has improved but remains below its long-term average. The balances on the demand and on the past and expected activity have sharply increased, but only that on the past activity has moved above its average.
In professional, scientific and technical activities, the business climate has brightened and has reached its long-term average, for the first time since June 2024. The balance of opinion on the expected workforce size has sharply risen, as the one on the expected demand which has moved above its average.
In administrative and support services, the business climate has sharply darkened and has reached its lowest level since 2013, excluding health crisis. All balances contributing to climate have sharply diminished, except for the one on the past activity.
In real estate activities, the business climate has deteriorated again but remains above its long-term average. The balances of opinion on the past workforce size and on the general business outlook have sharply decreased.
In accommodation and food services, the business climate indicator has rebounded and has reached its long-term average. This rise results mainly from the sharp rebound in the balance of opinion on the expected demand, which has moved above its own.
Finally, in road freight transport, the business climate indicator is stable, below its average level. The rise in the balance of opinion on the general business outlook is offset by the decrease in the one on the past and expected workforce size.
tableauBusiness climate composite indicator and balances of opinion by sub-sector in services
| Aggregated classification (NA 2008) at level A21 | Average* | Nov. 2024 | Dec. 2024 | Jan. 2025 | Feb. 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Road transport (8%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 93 | 94 | 96 | 96 |
| General outlook | -18 | -28 | -24 | -22 | -15 |
| Past activity | -6 | -11 | -14 | -17 | -16 |
| Expected activity | -7 | -19 | -18 | -11 | -12 |
| Expected demand | -9 | -25 | -23 | -19 | -19 |
| Past employment | -6 | -13 | -10 | -8 | -16 |
| Expected employment | -7 | -10 | -4 | -11 | -13 |
| Accommodation and food service activities (8%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 105 | 101 | 98 | 100 |
| General outlook | -13 | -7 | -14 | -15 | -14 |
| Past activity | -7 | -13 | -13 | 8 | 10 |
| Expected activity | -7 | 3 | -6 | -12 | -17 |
| Expected demand | -9 | -3 | -3 | -17 | -7 |
| Past employment | -5 | 0 | -3 | -1 | -1 |
| Expected employment | -5 | 5 | -2 | 4 | -1 |
| Information and communication (29%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 96 | 94 | 94 | 96 |
| General outlook | 0 | -2 | -4 | -2 | -5 |
| Past activity | 8 | 7 | 10 | -6 | 17 |
| Expected activity | 9 | 2 | -2 | -7 | 3 |
| Expected demand | 10 | 8 | -6 | -4 | 9 |
| Past employment | 6 | -2 | -9 | -8 | -8 |
| Expected employment | 10 | -2 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Real estate activities (10%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 100 | 106 | 104 | 101 |
| General outlook | -4 | -6 | -3 | 1 | -3 |
| Past activity | 6 | 5 | 12 | 7 | 12 |
| Expected activity | 6 | 9 | 14 | 6 | 5 |
| Expected demand | 1 | 4 | 9 | 3 | 4 |
| Past employment | 2 | -8 | 1 | 0 | -5 |
| Expected employment | 3 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 9 |
| Professional, scientific and technical activities (25%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 95 | 97 | 97 | 100 |
| General outlook | -8 | -9 | -10 | -9 | -8 |
| Past activity | -1 | -9 | -7 | -5 | -7 |
| Expected activity | -2 | -12 | -8 | -5 | -2 |
| Expected demand | -5 | -12 | -13 | -13 | -3 |
| Past employment | 1 | 2 | 6 | -5 | -7 |
| Expected employment | 1 | -2 | 2 | -5 | 0 |
| Administrative and support service activities (18%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 96 | 96 | 96 | 90 |
| General outlook | -3 | -5 | -7 | -4 | -9 |
| Past activity | 5 | -2 | -6 | -4 | -5 |
| Expected activity | 5 | 0 | -3 | 1 | -8 |
| Expected demand | 3 | -1 | 4 | -5 | -13 |
| Past employment | 7 | -8 | -27 | -7 | -18 |
| Expected employment | 6 | -13 | -16 | -14 | -19 |
- The figures in parentheses indicate the weights used to aggregate the sub-sector balances of opinion. The “other services” sub-sector is not displayed due to its low weight.
- *Composite indicator: average since 1989 (2006 for road transport); balances of opinion: average since 1988, except general outlook since June 2000 (2006 for road transport).
- Source: INSEE, monthly business survey in services.
Revision
The business climate indicator in services of January 2025 has not been revised (after rounding).
For further information
The composite indicators of business climate presented here are estimated independently of one another. Thus, that of the whole services cannot be deduced from the others. The same balances of opinion are included into their calculations, but they are not assigned the same weightings. Also, the indicators are scaled to have a long-run average of 100 and a standard deviation of 10. The climate series do not have the same historical beginning, so their standardisation differs slightly. Discrepancies may therefore appear from time to time.
For the three-modality questions, a balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the weighted percentage of “increase” responses and the weighted percentage of “decrease” responses.
This survey is part of the Joint Harmonised EU Programme of Business and Consumer Surveys, partly funded by the European Commission.
The responses to this survey were collected between 27 January and 18 February 2025; most companies answer during the first two weeks of collection.
Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of the web page of this publication.
Next issue: 21 March 2025 at 8:45 am.
Documentation
Changes to business tendency surveys – October 2021 (pdf,181 Ko)
Abbreviated methodology (in French) (pdf,193 Ko)
Pour en savoir plus
The composite indicators of business climate presented here are estimated independently of one another. Thus, that of the whole services cannot be deduced from the others. The same balances of opinion are included into their calculations, but they are not assigned the same weightings. Also, the indicators are scaled to have a long-run average of 100 and a standard deviation of 10. The climate series do not have the same historical beginning, so their standardisation differs slightly. Discrepancies may therefore appear from time to time.
For the three-modality questions, a balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the weighted percentage of “increase” responses and the weighted percentage of “decrease” responses.
This survey is part of the Joint Harmonised EU Programme of Business and Consumer Surveys, partly funded by the European Commission.
The responses to this survey were collected between 27 January and 18 February 2025; most companies answer during the first two weeks of collection.
Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of the web page of this publication.
Next issue: 21 March 2025 at 8:45 am.