Informations Rapides ·
24 January 2025 · n° 22
In January 2025, civil engineering business manager’s opinion on past activity has
improved again Quaterly survey of public works - January 2025
In January 2025, more business managers than in October consider that their activity has increased over the past three months and deem their order books to be better garnished. However, they display more pessimism regarding the expected evolution of their workforce size.
In January 2025, more business managers than in October consider that their activity has increased over the past three months and deem their order books to be better garnished. However, they display more pessimism regarding the expected evolution of their workforce size.
Business managers’ opinion on past activity has improved again
In January 2025, more business managers than in October consider their past activity have increased over the past three months: the corresponding balance of opinion has increased again, returning above its long-term average. Among those distinguishing their type of clientele, the balance of opinion on past activity among public clients has strongly increased, whereas the one among private clients remains stable.
tableauPublic works economic outlook
| Average* | Apr. 24 | Jul. 24 | Oct. 24 | Jan. 25 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Past activity | -5 | 1 | -21 | -4 | 5 |
| Past activity in the public-sector | -11 | -6 | -27 | -20 | -5 |
| Past activity in the private-sector | -8 | -3 | -22 | -5 | -4 |
| Expected activity | -11 | -8 | -7 | -12 | -13 |
| Expected activity in the public-sector | -15 | -15 | -12 | -15 | -18 |
| Expected activity in the private-sector | -14 | -9 | -7 | -19 | -17 |
| Opinion on order books | -23 | -20 | -17 | -21 | -15 |
| Obstacles to production increase because of workforce shortage (in %) | 18 | 45 | 33 | 37 | 28 |
| Obstacles to production increase because of a lack of demand (in %) | 36 | 34 | 37 | 45 | 42 |
| Expected workforce | -11 | 4 | 8 | 5 | -1 |
| Economic uncertainty felt** | 25 | 16 | 22 | 27 | 29 |
- Note: the balances of opinion by customer may differ from the balance of the whole, because sometimes the firms don't distinguish public-sector project and private-sector project.
- * Average since January 1981 and since April 2021 for the balances of opinion on the economic uncertainty felt.
- ** Non-seasonally adjusted balance of opinion.
- Source: INSEE and FNTP.
tableauActivity tendency in civil engineering
| Past activity | Expected activity | |
|---|---|---|
| 2025-Q1 | 5.1 | -13.0 |
| 2024-Q4 | -4.3 | -12.3 |
| 2024-Q3 | -21.0 | -6.6 |
| 2024-Q2 | 1.0 | -8.2 |
| 2024-Q1 | -1.9 | 0.0 |
| 2023-Q4 | -6.3 | -12.3 |
| 2023-Q3 | -14.0 | -12.6 |
| 2023-Q2 | -6.9 | -9.1 |
| 2023-Q1 | 4.5 | -14.7 |
| 2022-Q4 | -2.7 | -5.1 |
| 2022-Q3 | 5.8 | -16.3 |
| 2022-Q2 | 1.4 | -14.3 |
| 2022-Q1 | -5.0 | -3.1 |
| 2021-Q4 | -1.6 | 7.4 |
| 2021-Q3 | 15.9 | 6.8 |
| 2021-Q2 | -11.0 | -8.6 |
| 2021-Q1 | -8.7 | -21.4 |
| 2020-Q4 | 4.3 | -28.9 |
| 2020-Q3 | -90.0 | 18.6 |
| 2020-Q2 | NaN | NaN |
| 2020-Q1 | 19.6 | -5.5 |
| 2019-Q4 | 29.7 | 11.1 |
| 2019-Q3 | 29.6 | 19.2 |
| 2019-Q2 | 37.0 | 22.6 |
| 2019-Q1 | 33.2 | 25.1 |
| 2018-Q4 | 43.4 | 26.9 |
| 2018-Q3 | 29.2 | 28.2 |
| 2018-Q2 | 28.0 | 32.5 |
| 2018-Q1 | 36.8 | 22.3 |
| 2017-Q4 | 32.4 | 31.6 |
| 2017-Q3 | 35.3 | 28.6 |
| 2017-Q2 | 28.2 | 19.4 |
| 2017-Q1 | 12.3 | 3.1 |
| 2016-Q4 | 9.4 | -5.5 |
| 2016-Q3 | -5.6 | -1.0 |
| 2016-Q2 | -16.8 | -15.4 |
| 2016-Q1 | -18.5 | -15.6 |
| 2015-Q4 | -37.5 | -15.0 |
| 2015-Q3 | -41.0 | -31.7 |
| 2015-Q2 | -50.2 | -43.5 |
| 2015-Q1 | -59.9 | -42.3 |
| 2014-Q4 | -60.3 | -54.5 |
| 2014-Q3 | -45.6 | -48.4 |
| 2014-Q2 | 4.2 | -30.4 |
| 2014-Q1 | -4.2 | -25.6 |
| 2013-Q4 | 3.3 | -15.6 |
| 2013-Q3 | -7.4 | -11.9 |
| 2013-Q2 | -18.4 | -13.5 |
| 2013-Q1 | -11.3 | -13.3 |
| 2012-Q4 | -9.8 | -26.5 |
| 2012-Q3 | -22.6 | -7.6 |
| 2012-Q2 | -12.9 | -6.8 |
| 2012-Q1 | 7.0 | -12.4 |
| 2011-Q4 | 8.6 | -4.3 |
| 2011-Q3 | 26.5 | 0.1 |
| 2011-Q2 | 36.8 | 2.3 |
| 2011-Q1 | -32.5 | 0.0 |
| 2010-Q4 | -7.9 | -17.9 |
| 2010-Q3 | -15.9 | -23.9 |
| 2010-Q2 | -33.7 | -20.5 |
| 2010-Q1 | -23.1 | -16.7 |
| 2009-Q4 | -33.3 | -16.1 |
| 2009-Q3 | -50.5 | -34.0 |
| 2009-Q2 | -48.8 | -52.0 |
| 2009-Q1 | -55.3 | -50.6 |
| 2008-Q4 | -30.5 | -47.6 |
| 2008-Q3 | -10.8 | -26.0 |
| 2008-Q2 | 16.3 | -16.0 |
| 2008-Q1 | 20.1 | 2.7 |
| 2007-Q4 | 22.8 | 14.6 |
| 2007-Q3 | 36.2 | 13.9 |
| 2007-Q2 | 39.7 | 21.5 |
| 2007-Q1 | 39.0 | 16.9 |
- Data for the second quarter of 2020 are not available, the response rate to this survey was greatly affected in April in the context of the health crisis.
graphiqueActivity tendency in civil engineering
- Data for the second quarter of 2020 are not available, the response rate to this survey was greatly affected in April in the context of the health crisis.
- Source: FNTP and INSEE.
However, business managers’ opinion on their expected activity over the next three months remains stable: the associated balance of opinion is stable, slightly below its long-term average. For business managers distinguishing their type of clientele, the balance of opinion on expected activity within the public sector has dropped a little, while it has slightly increased within the private sector.
Slightly more business managers than in October consider the evolution of their company situation to be unpredictable: the balance of opinion on economic uncertainty felt by business managers has increased for the third consecutive month, moving away from its average.
Order books are considered more garnished than in October
In January 2025, the balance of opinion relating to the level of order books of business managers in the sector has bounced back: it stands above its long-term average. Among managers distinguishing their type of clientele, the judgement on order books remains virtually stable within the public sector while it has sharply rebounded within the private one, after their drop during last quarter. Both are standing above their long-term average.
Business managers have also reported longer payment delays from their customers: the corresponding balance of opinion, above its average for the fourth consecutive month, has risen again.
Employment prospects have deteriorated again
In January 2025, the balance of opinion regarding the evolution of the workforce size over the next three months has deteriorated again. However, its level still remains significantly higher than its long period average.
Difficulties due to a lack of manpower have retreated
In January 2025, 28% of companies have reported difficulties linked to a lack of manpower, a share in sharp decline but that remains significantly above its long period average. The proportion of companies reporting that they are facing demand constraints has also decreased: at 42%, it stands well above its average level.
For further information
A balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentage of “increase” responses and the percentage of “decrease” responses.
Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of this page.
The responses to this survey have been collected between 27 December 2024 and 20 January 2025.
Next issue: 29 April 2025 at 12:00 pm.
Documentation
Abbreviated methodology (pdf,123 Ko)
Pour en savoir plus
A balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentage of “increase” responses and the percentage of “decrease” responses.
Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of this page.
The responses to this survey have been collected between 27 December 2024 and 20 January 2025.
Next issue: 29 April 2025 at 12:00 pm.