Informations Rapides ·
23 January 2025 · n° 12
In January 2025, the business climate in France remains gloomy Business indicator - January 2025
In January 2025, the business climate* in France is almost stable. At 95, the indicator that synthesizes it, calculated from the responses of the business managers from the main market sectors has won one point (after rounding), staying below its long term average (100). The business climate has been stable in services, building construction and retail trade and has deteriorated in manufacturing industry and wholesale trade.
In January 2025, the business climate indicator is almost stable
In January 2025, the business climate* in France is almost stable. At 95, the indicator that synthesizes it, calculated from the responses of the business managers from the main market sectors has won one point (after rounding), staying below its long term average (100). The business climate has been stable in services, building construction and retail trade and has deteriorated in manufacturing industry and wholesale trade.
tableauFrench business climate composite indicator
| French business climate composite indicator | |
|---|---|
| 2025-01 | 95.0 |
| 2024-12 | 94.5 |
| 2024-11 | 96.0 |
| 2024-10 | 97.4 |
| 2024-09 | 97.9 |
| 2024-08 | 96.7 |
| 2024-07 | 93.9 |
| 2024-06 | 99.2 |
| 2024-05 | 99.6 |
| 2024-04 | 99.3 |
| 2024-03 | 100.0 |
| 2024-02 | 98.6 |
| 2024-01 | 98.9 |
| 2023-12 | 98.4 |
| 2023-11 | 97.9 |
| 2023-10 | 98.9 |
| 2023-09 | 100.3 |
| 2023-08 | 100.0 |
| 2023-07 | 100.2 |
| 2023-06 | 100.5 |
| 2023-05 | 100.4 |
| 2023-04 | 102.6 |
| 2023-03 | 102.9 |
| 2023-02 | 103.2 |
| 2023-01 | 102.2 |
| 2022-12 | 102.5 |
| 2022-11 | 102.4 |
| 2022-10 | 102.7 |
| 2022-09 | 102.5 |
| 2022-08 | 103.9 |
| 2022-07 | 103.5 |
| 2022-06 | 104.7 |
| 2022-05 | 106.3 |
| 2022-04 | 106.5 |
| 2022-03 | 107.2 |
| 2022-02 | 113.2 |
| 2022-01 | 108.2 |
| 2021-12 | 109.6 |
| 2021-11 | 114.1 |
| 2021-10 | 113.4 |
| 2021-09 | 111.6 |
| 2021-08 | 110.6 |
| 2021-07 | 113.0 |
| 2021-06 | 114.7 |
| 2021-05 | 110.1 |
| 2021-04 | 96.2 |
| 2021-03 | 97.7 |
| 2021-02 | 90.9 |
| 2021-01 | 93.6 |
| 2020-12 | 92.3 |
| 2020-11 | 77.8 |
| 2020-10 | 90.2 |
| 2020-09 | 93.8 |
| 2020-08 | 94.1 |
| 2020-07 | 91.0 |
| 2020-06 | 84.6 |
| 2020-05 | 59.5 |
| 2020-04 | 47.1 |
| 2020-03 | 93.9 |
| 2020-02 | 105.9 |
| 2020-01 | 106.2 |
| 2019-12 | 106.1 |
| 2019-11 | 106.3 |
| 2019-10 | 106.5 |
| 2019-09 | 106.9 |
| 2019-08 | 105.9 |
| 2019-07 | 106.0 |
| 2019-06 | 106.6 |
| 2019-05 | 106.7 |
| 2019-04 | 106.7 |
| 2019-03 | 105.9 |
| 2019-02 | 104.6 |
| 2019-01 | 104.2 |
| 2018-12 | 103.6 |
| 2018-11 | 106.6 |
| 2018-10 | 106.4 |
| 2018-09 | 107.6 |
| 2018-08 | 108.0 |
| 2018-07 | 108.5 |
| 2018-06 | 109.1 |
| 2018-05 | 109.4 |
| 2018-04 | 110.9 |
| 2018-03 | 111.6 |
| 2018-02 | 111.8 |
| 2018-01 | 112.8 |
| 2017-12 | 113.3 |
| 2017-11 | 111.8 |
| 2017-10 | 110.9 |
| 2017-09 | 111.0 |
| 2017-08 | 110.8 |
| 2017-07 | 109.8 |
| 2017-06 | 108.8 |
| 2017-05 | 107.6 |
| 2017-04 | 107.0 |
| 2017-03 | 106.6 |
| 2017-02 | 106.9 |
| 2017-01 | 106.2 |
| 2016-12 | 106.1 |
| 2016-11 | 103.7 |
| 2016-10 | 103.8 |
| 2016-09 | 103.6 |
| 2016-08 | 103.5 |
| 2016-07 | 103.9 |
| 2016-06 | 103.0 |
| 2016-05 | 104.3 |
| 2016-04 | 102.4 |
| 2016-03 | 103.0 |
| 2016-02 | 103.0 |
| 2016-01 | 104.0 |
| 2015-12 | 101.6 |
| 2015-11 | 102.9 |
| 2015-10 | 102.9 |
| 2015-09 | 102.1 |
| 2015-08 | 102.8 |
| 2015-07 | 101.1 |
| 2015-06 | 100.7 |
| 2015-05 | 99.4 |
| 2015-04 | 98.3 |
| 2015-03 | 96.9 |
| 2015-02 | 95.8 |
| 2015-01 | 94.7 |
| 2014-12 | 93.9 |
| 2014-11 | 93.7 |
| 2014-10 | 91.9 |
| 2014-09 | 91.9 |
| 2014-08 | 92.9 |
| 2014-07 | 94.4 |
| 2014-06 | 95.0 |
| 2014-05 | 95.6 |
| 2014-04 | 96.1 |
| 2014-03 | 96.2 |
| 2014-02 | 95.0 |
| 2014-01 | 95.4 |
| 2013-12 | 94.1 |
| 2013-11 | 94.7 |
| 2013-10 | 95.3 |
| 2013-09 | 95.5 |
| 2013-08 | 91.8 |
| 2013-07 | 88.5 |
| 2013-06 | 86.7 |
| 2013-05 | 85.5 |
| 2013-04 | 84.5 |
| 2013-03 | 85.9 |
| 2013-02 | 88.0 |
| 2013-01 | 87.9 |
| 2012-12 | 88.4 |
| 2012-11 | 87.7 |
| 2012-10 | 86.4 |
| 2012-09 | 88.1 |
| 2012-08 | 89.6 |
| 2012-07 | 90.7 |
| 2012-06 | 91.8 |
| 2012-05 | 92.9 |
| 2012-04 | 97.1 |
| 2012-03 | 95.5 |
| 2012-02 | 93.0 |
| 2012-01 | 93.1 |
| 2011-12 | 94.6 |
| 2011-11 | 95.5 |
| 2011-10 | 97.6 |
| 2011-09 | 98.7 |
| 2011-08 | 101.5 |
| 2011-07 | 106.4 |
| 2011-06 | 107.7 |
| 2011-05 | 108.1 |
| 2011-04 | 108.7 |
| 2011-03 | 109.5 |
| 2011-02 | 109.0 |
| 2011-01 | 107.8 |
| 2010-12 | 106.9 |
| 2010-11 | 105.2 |
| 2010-10 | 104.5 |
| 2010-09 | 102.6 |
| 2010-08 | 100.6 |
| 2010-07 | 98.5 |
| 2010-06 | 96.6 |
| 2010-05 | 97.2 |
| 2010-04 | 95.9 |
| 2010-03 | 92.2 |
| 2010-02 | 92.8 |
| 2010-01 | 92.2 |
| 2009-12 | 90.6 |
| 2009-11 | 90.4 |
| 2009-10 | 88.6 |
| 2009-09 | 85.8 |
| 2009-08 | 82.9 |
| 2009-07 | 79.8 |
| 2009-06 | 77.7 |
| 2009-05 | 74.3 |
| 2009-04 | 71.3 |
| 2009-03 | 69.5 |
| 2009-02 | 73.4 |
| 2009-01 | 75.0 |
| 2008-12 | 76.7 |
| 2008-11 | 79.5 |
| 2008-10 | 83.4 |
| 2008-09 | 92.6 |
| 2008-08 | 94.9 |
| 2008-07 | 96.5 |
| 2008-06 | 100.1 |
| 2008-05 | 103.3 |
| 2008-04 | 106.0 |
| 2008-03 | 108.2 |
| 2008-02 | 108.3 |
| 2008-01 | 109.5 |
| 2007-12 | 110.1 |
| 2007-11 | 110.4 |
| 2007-10 | 109.9 |
| 2007-09 | 111.2 |
| 2007-08 | 111.9 |
| 2007-07 | 112.8 |
| 2007-06 | 113.6 |
| 2007-05 | 112.6 |
| 2007-04 | 112.4 |
| 2007-03 | 111.8 |
| 2007-02 | 111.4 |
| 2007-01 | 109.7 |
| 2006-12 | 109.6 |
| 2006-11 | 111.1 |
| 2006-10 | 109.5 |
| 2006-09 | 109.4 |
| 2006-08 | 108.8 |
| 2006-07 | 108.2 |
| 2006-06 | 106.3 |
| 2006-05 | 106.6 |
| 2006-04 | 104.7 |
| 2006-03 | 104.3 |
| 2006-02 | 103.8 |
| 2006-01 | 106.2 |
| 2005-12 | 104.7 |
| 2005-11 | 103.1 |
| 2005-10 | 103.7 |
| 2005-09 | 100.7 |
| 2005-08 | 101.5 |
| 2005-07 | 101.6 |
| 2005-06 | 101.9 |
| 2005-05 | 101.0 |
| 2005-04 | 103.5 |
| 2005-03 | 104.4 |
| 2005-02 | 104.3 |
| 2005-01 | 103.9 |
graphiqueFrench business climate composite indicator
- Source: INSEE.
In January 2025, the business climate in services is stable. At 96 the indicator that synthetizes it stands below its long term average (100) for the third month in a row. The balances on past activity and expected demand have deteriorated a little but the one on general business outlook has slightly improved.
In building construction, the business climate is also stable. At 98, the synthetic indicator lies below its long term average (100). Business managers' opinion on their expected activity has improved, but they remain very pessimistic about the general business outlook of the sector.
In retail trade (including trade and repair of vehicles), the business climate has also maintained. Behind this stability, the main balance variations concern the one on the ordering intentions which has retreated, and the ones on the expected change in the workforce and the past sales which have rebounded.
In manufacturing industry, the business climate has retreated. At 95, the synthetic indicator has decreased and has moved away from its long-term average (100). The balances of opinion on order books have strongly retreated.
Lastly, in wholesale trade, the bimonthly business climate has diminished again, losing two points since November 2024. At 91, the composite indicator has reached its lowest level since September 2014 (excluding the Covid period). This deterioration reflects, in particular, the decrease in the balances of opinion on the merchandise received from abroad and the past sales.
tableauBusiness and employment climates
| Sep. 24 | Oct. 24 | Nov. 24 | Dec. 24 | Jan. 25 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business climates | |||||
| France | 98 | 97 | 96 | 94 | 95 |
| Manufacturing industry | 99 | 93 | 97 | 97 | 95 |
| Building construction | 100 | 100 | 99 | 98 | 98 |
| Services | 99 | 101 | 98 | 96 | 96 |
| Retail trade* | 100 | 99 | 98 | 97 | 97 |
| Wholesale trade | 95 | 93 | 91 | ||
| Employment | 99 | 97 | 98 | 97 | 98 |
- * including trade and repair of vehicles.
- Source: INSEE, business tendency surveys.
The employment climate indicator is almost stable
In January 2025, the employment climate indicator has slightly rebounded. At 98, it has won one point and has moved closer to its long-term average (100). This improvement is mainly due to the improvement of the balance of opinion on future employment in services (hors interim).
tableauFrench employment climate composite indicator
| French employment climate composite indicator | |
|---|---|
| 2025-01 | 97.9 |
| 2024-12 | 96.6 |
| 2024-11 | 98.4 |
| 2024-10 | 97.1 |
| 2024-09 | 99.4 |
| 2024-08 | 97.6 |
| 2024-07 | 95.8 |
| 2024-06 | 99.7 |
| 2024-05 | 102.3 |
| 2024-04 | 100.8 |
| 2024-03 | 100.2 |
| 2024-02 | 101.4 |
| 2024-01 | 99.4 |
| 2023-12 | 100.7 |
| 2023-11 | 99.9 |
| 2023-10 | 102.3 |
| 2023-09 | 104.7 |
| 2023-08 | 101.4 |
| 2023-07 | 105.4 |
| 2023-06 | 106.2 |
| 2023-05 | 106.6 |
| 2023-04 | 109.1 |
| 2023-03 | 109.2 |
| 2023-02 | 109.8 |
| 2023-01 | 112.5 |
| 2022-12 | 110.6 |
| 2022-11 | 108.6 |
| 2022-10 | 107.9 |
| 2022-09 | 109.1 |
| 2022-08 | 108.1 |
| 2022-07 | 110.5 |
| 2022-06 | 108.1 |
| 2022-05 | 110.3 |
| 2022-04 | 111.1 |
| 2022-03 | 112.8 |
| 2022-02 | 113.7 |
| 2022-01 | 110.6 |
| 2021-12 | 108.8 |
| 2021-11 | 113.4 |
| 2021-10 | 110.4 |
| 2021-09 | 107.5 |
| 2021-08 | 109.0 |
| 2021-07 | 108.6 |
| 2021-06 | 107.2 |
| 2021-05 | 101.0 |
| 2021-04 | 91.2 |
| 2021-03 | 90.5 |
| 2021-02 | 84.0 |
| 2021-01 | 86.4 |
| 2020-12 | 83.7 |
| 2020-11 | 80.6 |
| 2020-10 | 87.9 |
| 2020-09 | 92.8 |
| 2020-08 | 89.2 |
| 2020-07 | 79.3 |
| 2020-06 | 69.8 |
| 2020-05 | 49.8 |
| 2020-04 | 41.1 |
| 2020-03 | 96.9 |
| 2020-02 | 105.9 |
| 2020-01 | 106.0 |
| 2019-12 | 107.4 |
| 2019-11 | 108.0 |
| 2019-10 | 106.5 |
| 2019-09 | 107.9 |
| 2019-08 | 107.6 |
| 2019-07 | 107.2 |
| 2019-06 | 107.9 |
| 2019-05 | 105.3 |
| 2019-04 | 107.0 |
| 2019-03 | 107.7 |
| 2019-02 | 107.2 |
| 2019-01 | 106.6 |
| 2018-12 | 104.4 |
| 2018-11 | 105.0 |
| 2018-10 | 106.6 |
| 2018-09 | 107.5 |
| 2018-08 | 108.0 |
| 2018-07 | 108.2 |
| 2018-06 | 109.6 |
| 2018-05 | 109.4 |
| 2018-04 | 108.7 |
| 2018-03 | 109.4 |
| 2018-02 | 109.4 |
| 2018-01 | 109.1 |
| 2017-12 | 108.2 |
| 2017-11 | 107.0 |
| 2017-10 | 107.8 |
| 2017-09 | 106.7 |
| 2017-08 | 105.0 |
| 2017-07 | 106.9 |
| 2017-06 | 107.4 |
| 2017-05 | 106.9 |
| 2017-04 | 106.5 |
| 2017-03 | 107.0 |
| 2017-02 | 104.6 |
| 2017-01 | 105.5 |
| 2016-12 | 106.2 |
| 2016-11 | 105.3 |
| 2016-10 | 104.7 |
| 2016-09 | 105.0 |
| 2016-08 | 102.3 |
| 2016-07 | 104.6 |
| 2016-06 | 100.8 |
| 2016-05 | 101.4 |
| 2016-04 | 99.4 |
| 2016-03 | 99.1 |
| 2016-02 | 100.3 |
| 2016-01 | 101.1 |
| 2015-12 | 100.4 |
| 2015-11 | 101.1 |
| 2015-10 | 99.4 |
| 2015-09 | 99.5 |
| 2015-08 | 100.0 |
| 2015-07 | 99.0 |
| 2015-06 | 98.6 |
| 2015-05 | 96.6 |
| 2015-04 | 96.5 |
| 2015-03 | 94.5 |
| 2015-02 | 95.0 |
| 2015-01 | 93.0 |
| 2014-12 | 94.0 |
| 2014-11 | 93.5 |
| 2014-10 | 93.5 |
| 2014-09 | 93.6 |
| 2014-08 | 93.4 |
| 2014-07 | 94.5 |
| 2014-06 | 94.6 |
| 2014-05 | 96.1 |
| 2014-04 | 96.8 |
| 2014-03 | 95.0 |
| 2014-02 | 93.5 |
| 2014-01 | 94.0 |
| 2013-12 | 93.6 |
| 2013-11 | 92.7 |
| 2013-10 | 93.6 |
| 2013-09 | 91.0 |
| 2013-08 | 90.4 |
| 2013-07 | 89.5 |
| 2013-06 | 88.5 |
| 2013-05 | 85.0 |
| 2013-04 | 86.4 |
| 2013-03 | 88.2 |
| 2013-02 | 88.9 |
| 2013-01 | 91.7 |
| 2012-12 | 89.3 |
| 2012-11 | 89.6 |
| 2012-10 | 91.3 |
| 2012-09 | 91.3 |
| 2012-08 | 92.9 |
| 2012-07 | 92.1 |
| 2012-06 | 93.3 |
| 2012-05 | 94.4 |
| 2012-04 | 97.6 |
| 2012-03 | 98.2 |
| 2012-02 | 97.2 |
| 2012-01 | 97.5 |
| 2011-12 | 98.3 |
| 2011-11 | 100.3 |
| 2011-10 | 99.4 |
| 2011-09 | 103.4 |
| 2011-08 | 105.0 |
| 2011-07 | 109.4 |
| 2011-06 | 110.8 |
| 2011-05 | 110.9 |
| 2011-04 | 108.7 |
| 2011-03 | 108.8 |
| 2011-02 | 110.3 |
| 2011-01 | 102.6 |
| 2010-12 | 105.3 |
| 2010-11 | 104.0 |
| 2010-10 | 102.6 |
| 2010-09 | 99.7 |
| 2010-08 | 98.2 |
| 2010-07 | 97.5 |
| 2010-06 | 97.5 |
| 2010-05 | 96.5 |
| 2010-04 | 95.1 |
| 2010-03 | 93.1 |
| 2010-02 | 90.7 |
| 2010-01 | 90.1 |
| 2009-12 | 88.6 |
| 2009-11 | 86.8 |
| 2009-10 | 84.5 |
| 2009-09 | 83.0 |
| 2009-08 | 84.3 |
| 2009-07 | 79.3 |
| 2009-06 | 75.3 |
| 2009-05 | 74.3 |
| 2009-04 | 74.8 |
| 2009-03 | 74.6 |
| 2009-02 | 79.1 |
| 2009-01 | 81.0 |
| 2008-12 | 84.1 |
| 2008-11 | 88.5 |
| 2008-10 | 95.6 |
| 2008-09 | 100.1 |
| 2008-08 | 101.2 |
| 2008-07 | 106.7 |
| 2008-06 | 104.4 |
| 2008-05 | 108.6 |
| 2008-04 | 112.8 |
| 2008-03 | 112.6 |
| 2008-02 | 114.2 |
| 2008-01 | 114.4 |
| 2007-12 | 114.4 |
| 2007-11 | 113.7 |
| 2007-10 | 112.3 |
| 2007-09 | 113.9 |
| 2007-08 | 113.3 |
| 2007-07 | 111.6 |
| 2007-06 | 113.4 |
| 2007-05 | 114.4 |
| 2007-04 | 111.8 |
| 2007-03 | 111.3 |
| 2007-02 | 112.1 |
| 2007-01 | 109.6 |
| 2006-12 | 111.9 |
| 2006-11 | 111.1 |
| 2006-10 | 109.8 |
| 2006-09 | 108.6 |
| 2006-08 | 109.8 |
| 2006-07 | 110.4 |
| 2006-06 | 111.3 |
| 2006-05 | 108.8 |
| 2006-04 | 108.2 |
| 2006-03 | 105.7 |
| 2006-02 | 105.0 |
| 2006-01 | 105.0 |
| 2005-12 | 103.4 |
| 2005-11 | 104.0 |
| 2005-10 | 104.0 |
| 2005-09 | 104.0 |
| 2005-08 | 103.9 |
| 2005-07 | 103.5 |
| 2005-06 | 103.0 |
| 2005-05 | 103.9 |
| 2005-04 | 103.4 |
| 2005-03 | 105.7 |
| 2005-02 | 103.2 |
| 2005-01 | 103.3 |
graphiqueFrench employment climate composite indicator
- Source: INSEE.
Revisions
The business climate for December 2024 in retail trade has been revised upwards by one point (after rounding), as has the employment climate indicator. These revisions are mainly due to the inclusion of late responses from companies. The other synthetic indicators of climate have not been revised (after rounding).
For further information
* The business climate indicator summarises the information provided by the surveys in manufacturing, services, trade (retail and wholesale) and building construction. It is built from the 30 balances of opinion used in the build of the sectoral climates but according to a dynamic approach in order to include the bimonthly indicators of wholesale trade. Due to this different approach, the evolution of business climate for France might slightly diverge from the evolution of the sectoral climates overall.
The employment indicator is based on the 10 balances of employment, past and expected, from the surveys in manufacturing, services, retail trade and building construction. The balances of opinion concerning employment in services that are used in the employment climate distinguish the services excluding temporary work employment sector from temporary work agencies. For the latter, the balances on past and expected workforce size are not weighted, unlike the other sectors.
The surveys in manufacturing industry, building construction, retail trade and trade and repair of vehicles and services are part of the Joint Harmonised EU Programme of Business and Consumer Surveys, partly funded by the European Commission.
The responses to these surveys were collected between 26 December 2024 and 20 January 2025; most companies answer during the first two weeks of collection.
Next issue: 21 February 2025 at 08:45 am.
Documentation
Methodology note (in French) (pdf,245 Ko)
Pour en savoir plus
* The business climate indicator summarises the information provided by the surveys in manufacturing, services, trade (retail and wholesale) and building construction. It is built from the 30 balances of opinion used in the build of the sectoral climates but according to a dynamic approach in order to include the bimonthly indicators of wholesale trade. Due to this different approach, the evolution of business climate for France might slightly diverge from the evolution of the sectoral climates overall.
The employment indicator is based on the 10 balances of employment, past and expected, from the surveys in manufacturing, services, retail trade and building construction. The balances of opinion concerning employment in services that are used in the employment climate distinguish the services excluding temporary work employment sector from temporary work agencies. For the latter, the balances on past and expected workforce size are not weighted, unlike the other sectors.
The surveys in manufacturing industry, building construction, retail trade and trade and repair of vehicles and services are part of the Joint Harmonised EU Programme of Business and Consumer Surveys, partly funded by the European Commission.
The responses to these surveys were collected between 26 December 2024 and 20 January 2025; most companies answer during the first two weeks of collection.
Next issue: 21 February 2025 at 08:45 am.