Insee
Informations Rapides · 23 January 2025 · n° 13
Informations rapidesIn January 2025, the business climate is stable in retail trade and in trade and repair of motor vehicles Monthly survey of retailing - January 2025

In January 2025, the business climate is stable in retail trade and trade and repair of motor vehicles overall. At 97, the indicator that synthesizes it lies below its long-term average (100). Behind this stability, the main balance variations concern the one on the ordering intentions which has retreated, and those on the expected change in the workforce and the past sales which have rebounded.

Informations rapides
No 13
Paru le :Paru le23/01/2025
Prochaine parution le : 19/09/2025 at 08:45 - September 2025

In January 2025, the business climate is stable in retail trade and trade and repair of motor vehicles overall. At 97, the indicator that synthesizes it lies below its long-term average (100). Behind this stability, the main balance variations concern the one on the ordering intentions which has retreated, and those on the expected change in the workforce and the past sales which have rebounded.

Composite indicator

Composite indicator
Business climate synthetic indicator
2025-01 97.0
2024-12 96.6
2024-11 98.4
2024-10 99.2
2024-09 100.1
2024-08 97.3
2024-07 94.1
2024-06 99.4
2024-05 100.9
2024-04 102.1
2024-03 101.3
2024-02 100.4
2024-01 104.1
2023-12 99.9
2023-11 97.1
2023-10 98.3
2023-09 102.6
2023-08 103.2
2023-07 104.4
2023-06 101.3
2023-05 98.0
2023-04 100.6
2023-03 98.0
2023-02 101.3
2023-01 99.8
2022-12 99.4
2022-11 96.8
2022-10 98.0
2022-09 96.5
2022-08 97.6
2022-07 94.5
2022-06 94.1
2022-05 95.4
2022-04 91.3
2022-03 99.5
2022-02 107.1
2022-01 104.7
2021-12 107.7
2021-11 109.1
2021-10 106.7
2021-09 108.0
2021-08 108.8
2021-07 114.1
2021-06 115.6
2021-05 108.2
2021-04 91.8
2021-03 96.6
2021-02 89.9
2021-01 94.0
2020-12 93.7
2020-11 70.6
2020-10 98.4
2020-09 98.1
2020-08 94.5
2020-07 90.0
2020-06 85.4
2020-05 60.7
2020-04 57.7
2020-03 93.2
2020-02 107.6
2020-01 106.7
2019-12 109.1
2019-11 106.9
2019-10 106.6
2019-09 107.3
2019-08 100.4
2019-07 106.6
2019-06 104.0
2019-05 105.1
2019-04 108.3
2019-03 104.5
2019-02 103.2
2019-01 101.4
2018-12 99.7
2018-11 107.2
2018-10 107.3
2018-09 110.4
2018-08 113.7
2018-07 114.8
2018-06 113.3
2018-05 113.5
2018-04 113.9
2018-03 114.0
2018-02 116.9
2018-01 117.0
2017-12 116.7
2017-11 116.3
2017-10 117.1
2017-09 113.7
2017-08 111.4
2017-07 112.2
2017-06 111.4
2017-05 107.2
2017-04 105.9
2017-03 108.2
2017-02 107.9
2017-01 109.3
2016-12 108.6
2016-11 103.2
2016-10 102.0
2016-09 103.0
2016-08 104.9
2016-07 104.7
2016-06 104.2
2016-05 106.4
2016-04 103.1
2016-03 104.1
2016-02 102.6
2016-01 104.4
2015-12 101.7
2015-11 105.4
2015-10 108.7
2015-09 106.3
2015-08 107.0
2015-07 103.4
2015-06 104.6
2015-05 103.4
2015-04 103.4
2015-03 102.5
2015-02 102.4
2015-01 99.1
2014-12 94.4
2014-11 92.8
2014-10 89.1
2014-09 88.3
2014-08 90.4
2014-07 96.8
2014-06 94.6
2014-05 96.4
2014-04 96.5
2014-03 95.4
2014-02 94.6
2014-01 95.2
2013-12 93.9
2013-11 92.0
2013-10 95.3
2013-09 97.8
2013-08 93.4
2013-07 85.0
2013-06 84.9
2013-05 83.3
2013-04 84.3
2013-03 86.4
2013-02 89.6
2013-01 84.6
2012-12 87.8
2012-11 88.1
2012-10 87.3
2012-09 85.6
2012-08 91.0
2012-07 89.2
2012-06 93.1
2012-05 90.8
2012-04 96.0
2012-03 93.3
2012-02 90.6
2012-01 88.0
2011-12 92.9
2011-11 93.9
2011-10 94.6
2011-09 93.9
2011-08 98.3
2011-07 101.3
2011-06 102.0
2011-05 104.1
2011-04 103.2
2011-03 103.9
2011-02 106.8
2011-01 107.0
2010-12 108.1
2010-11 104.5
2010-10 107.9
2010-09 106.2
2010-08 106.5
2010-07 101.1
2010-06 101.3
2010-05 101.9
2010-04 103.4
2010-03 97.8
2010-02 98.7
2010-01 98.2
2009-12 96.5
2009-11 98.3
2009-10 92.6
2009-09 90.3
2009-08 87.3
2009-07 85.9
2009-06 79.2
2009-05 80.2
2009-04 75.0
2009-03 82.6
2009-02 78.1
2009-01 77.1
2008-12 75.8
2008-11 84.2
2008-10 80.3
2008-09 96.7
2008-08 93.0
2008-07 95.4
2008-06 99.7
2008-05 103.5
2008-04 103.6
2008-03 110.0
2008-02 109.1
2008-01 110.4
2007-12 115.1
2007-11 113.0
2007-10 111.7
2007-09 112.1
2007-08 115.5
2007-07 117.6
2007-06 121.0
2007-05 114.9
2007-04 113.7
2007-03 111.4
2007-02 112.8
2007-01 107.9
2006-12 108.6
2006-11 111.1
2006-10 111.9
2006-09 110.5
2006-08 109.9
2006-07 108.3
2006-06 107.8
2006-05 105.5
2006-04 103.7
2006-03 102.3
2006-02 102.8
2006-01 103.2
2005-12 104.3
2005-11 99.7
2005-10 101.9
2005-09 99.3
2005-08 97.9
2005-07 95.9
2005-06 98.0
2005-05 101.4
2005-04 103.8
2005-03 104.4
2005-02 103.8
2005-01 106.2

Composite indicator

  • Source: INSEE.

The balance of opinion related to the ordering intentions has retreated

In January 2025, the balance related to the ordering intentions has retreated and has moved away from its long-term average. The balance related to the general business outlook has slightly recovered and has left its average. The balance related to the past sales has rebounded and has moved above its own. Conversely, the balance on the expected sales has retreated and has moved away from its average.

The balance of opinion associated with the expected change in the workforce size has rebounded and has moved closer to its long-term average, while the one on their past change has diminished again and has moved away from its own.

The balance associated with the current level of stocks is stable for the second month in a row, above its average.

The bimonthly balance on the cash position has retreated and has moved away from its own.

The balances of opinion on the past and expected selling prices have slightly rebounded and have moved above their long-term average.

Lastly, the balance on the felt economic uncertainty has sharply retreated.

Tendency in retail trade and in trade and repair of motor vehicles

Balances of opinion, in %, S.A.
Tendency in retail trade and in trade and repair of motor vehicles (Balances of opinion, in %, S.A.)
Ave. (1) Oct. 24 Nov. 24 Dec. 24 Jan. 25
Business climate 100 99 98 97 97
General business outlook -27 -24 -23 -27 -26
Recent sales -9 -13 -7 -14 -8
Expected sales -4 -9 -9 -7 -11
Ordering intentions -9 -10 -13 -11 -13
Stocks 10 13 15 15 15
Past selling prices (2) -3 - -4 - -2
Expected selling prices 0 1 1 -3 2
Cash position (2) -15 - -18 - -21
Past workforce size -1 -4 -3 -6 -8
Expected workforce size -4 -8 -11 -14 -10
Economic uncertainty felt (3) 37 32 34 37 32
  • (1) Average since 1991 (except 2004 for recent and expected sales and ordering intentions, and April 2021 for uncertainty felt).
  • (2) Bimonthly question (odd-numbered months).
  • (3) Non-seasonally adjusted balance.
  • Source: INSEE - monthly survey in retail trade and in trade and repair of motor vehicles.

Recent sales and ordering intentions

Recent sales and ordering intentions
Ordering intentions Recent sales
2025-01 -13.3 -8.0
2024-12 -10.8 -14.1
2024-11 -12.7 -7.3
2024-10 -10.1 -12.6
2024-09 -11.3 -9.3
2024-08 -11.9 -15.1
2024-07 -15.4 -18.2
2024-06 -8.6 -15.3
2024-05 -9.2 -10.4
2024-04 -8.1 -5.3
2024-03 -8.4 -9.8
2024-02 -7.6 -13.5
2024-01 -6.4 -0.9
2023-12 -12.4 -11.9
2023-11 -14.8 -14.5
2023-10 -12.4 -5.4
2023-09 -8.3 1.0
2023-08 -10.9 6.0
2023-07 -8.5 -1.3
2023-06 -8.8 -8.1
2023-05 -13.6 -5.6
2023-04 -10.3 -1.1
2023-03 -14.5 -4.6
2023-02 -9.1 -1.4
2023-01 -12.0 5.9
2022-12 -9.5 -0.7
2022-11 -15.4 2.0
2022-10 -9.9 -3.1
2022-09 -14.6 -5.6
2022-08 -10.5 -12.7
2022-07 -10.6 -20.3
2022-06 -13.0 -15.6
2022-05 -12.4 -13.0
2022-04 -17.8 -18.4
2022-03 -4.6 -11.3
2022-02 -2.0 -7.3
2022-01 -3.5 -5.0
2021-12 -1.1 -5.7
2021-11 -0.5 -11.3
2021-10 -5.1 -18.1
2021-09 -2.5 -11.8
2021-08 0.0 10.7
2021-07 3.5 0.5
2021-06 0.8 -1.5
2021-05 -5.1 -10.8
2021-04 -14.3 -7.1
2021-03 -8.1 -15.3
2021-02 -14.5 -14.3
2021-01 -13.5 -5.4
2020-12 -11.1 -21.4
2020-11 -36.8 7.6
2020-10 -0.5 -2.6
2020-09 -6.2 6.0
2020-08 -8.5 -10.2
2020-07 -7.8 -41.8
2020-06 -13.6 -47.8
2020-05 -44.9 -56.3
2020-04 -54.6 -3.9
2020-03 -12.4 -3.6
2020-02 -0.1 1.3
2020-01 -3.2 10.8
2019-12 1.2 -1.4
2019-11 -1.2 -5.8
2019-10 -3.2 -6.6
2019-09 -3.0 0.4
2019-08 -13.3 -5.2
2019-07 -2.6 -3.7
2019-06 -7.6 -9.1
2019-05 -4.4 -10.9
2019-04 2.3 -12.9
2019-03 -2.7 -17.4
2019-02 -5.9 -10.3
2019-01 -7.0 -9.4
2018-12 -6.0 -8.9
2018-11 -0.9 -6.7
2018-10 -2.4 -8.3
2018-09 1.9 1.9
2018-08 7.7 0.3
2018-07 6.6 -2.1
2018-06 5.6 -8.7
2018-05 4.4 -6.8
2018-04 3.8 -9.9
2018-03 1.8 -7.9
2018-02 4.2 4.7
2018-01 5.5 1.6
2017-12 5.4 1.5
2017-11 7.6 -4.9
2017-10 9.8 -0.5
2017-09 2.3 -1.6
2017-08 -0.8 -1.0
2017-07 -1.4 5.5
2017-06 -1.0 -5.9
2017-05 -3.2 -5.5
2017-04 -3.5 -11.9
2017-03 0.2 -1.8
2017-02 -0.4 4.2
2017-01 1.5 1.0
2016-12 -0.1 -1.2
2016-11 -9.2 -6.3
2016-10 -8.2 -10.7
2016-09 -6.1 -10.5
2016-08 -3.9 -4.1
2016-07 -5.1 -5.1
2016-06 -3.7 -4.0
2016-05 -3.8 4.8
2016-04 -8.7 1.5
2016-03 -3.5 -5.2
2016-02 -6.8 -9.2
2016-01 -6.1 -4.9
2015-12 -5.2 -15.3
2015-11 -3.5 3.0
2015-10 0.3 4.4
2015-09 -2.6 1.6
2015-08 -1.5 8.0
2015-07 -6.3 -0.6
2015-06 -1.3 -8.3
2015-05 -3.0 -4.4
2015-04 -2.2 -2.6
2015-03 -3.3 -5.4
2015-02 -1.9 -4.3
2015-01 -4.9 -8.6
2014-12 -12.7 -10.2
2014-11 -13.6 -14.7
2014-10 -16.8 -23.7
2014-09 -18.4 -30.6
2014-08 -17.3 -19.8
2014-07 -10.3 -5.9
2014-06 -13.8 -11.9
2014-05 -11.3 -14.8
2014-04 -9.6 -21.3
2014-03 -11.1 -16.9
2014-02 -13.3 -13.1
2014-01 -12.7 -10.7
2013-12 -15.2 -10.6
2013-11 -13.5 -12.9
2013-10 -13.4 -11.5
2013-09 -7.5 -12.8
2013-08 -13.4 -18.3
2013-07 -23.1 -26.0
2013-06 -19.4 -24.4
2013-05 -21.7 -29.8
2013-04 -19.6 -31.8
2013-03 -17.1 -25.9
2013-02 -14.0 -27.2
2013-01 -25.5 -17.3
2012-12 -17.7 -21.2
2012-11 -18.5 -16.4
2012-10 -19.3 -23.0
2012-09 -21.7 -23.8
2012-08 -15.1 -8.3
2012-07 -15.4 -19.5
2012-06 -12.9 -18.3
2012-05 -16.8 -14.8
2012-04 -13.7 -8.1
2012-03 -16.0 -12.3
2012-02 -15.4 -15.4
2012-01 -19.9 -20.3
2011-12 -13.9 -17.5
2011-11 -12.6 -13.0
2011-10 -13.5 -15.7
2011-09 -13.1 -17.4
2011-08 -11.3 -6.5
2011-07 -11.6 -9.4
2011-06 -11.4 0.1
2011-05 -7.9 3.6
2011-04 -7.2 1.7
2011-03 -5.8 -6.4
2011-02 -2.4 1.6
2011-01 -1.8 4.3
2010-12 -1.3 4.1
2010-11 -4.9 -8.0
2010-10 1.3 -3.9
2010-09 -2.3 -1.8
2010-08 -1.6 4.0
2010-07 -7.9 -5.3
2010-06 -4.7 -1.0
2010-05 -7.0 2.1
2010-04 -4.5 -2.7
2010-03 -10.0 -20.1
2010-02 -9.9 -13.0
2010-01 -13.4 -4.7

Recent sales and ordering intentions

  • Source: INSEE.

The balance on the ordering intentions has strongly retreated in retail trade (excluding motor vehicles)

In January 2025, the balance associated with the ordering intentions has strongly retreated in retail trade (excluding motor vehicles) and has moved below its long-term average, while it has rebounded in trade and repair of motor vehicles and has moved closer to its own.

The balances associated with the expected change in the workforce size have recovered in both sub-sectors: the one in retail trade (excluding motor vehicles) has moved closer to its average, while the one in trade and repair of motor vehicles has reached its own.

The balance associated with past sales has strongly rebounded in retail trade (excluding motor vehicles) and has moved above its average, while it has diminished again sharply in trade and repair of motor vehicles, moving away from its own. Conversely, the balance on the expected sales has retreated in retail trade (excluding motor vehicles) where it has moved below its average, whereas it has rebounded in trade and repair of motor vehicles, while remaining sharply below its own.

The balances of opinion on the expected prices have recovered in both sub-sectors: the one in retail trade (excluding motor vehicles) has moved away from the average, whereas the one in trade and repair of motor vehicles has moved closer to it.

Balances of opinion by sub-sector in retail trade and trade and repair of motor vehicles

Balances of opinion, in %, S.A.
Balances of opinion by sub-sector in retail trade and trade and repair of motor vehicles (Balances of opinion, in %, S.A.)
Ave. (1) Oct. 24 Nov. 24 Dec. 24 Jan. 25
Retail trade
General business outlook -28 -22 -21 -24 -24
Recent sales -8 -12 -4 -13 2
Expected sales -2 -9 -3 2 -7
Ordering intentions -9 -10 -9 -4 -12
Stocks 10 12 12 11 14
Past selling prices (2) -5 - -3 - -3
Expected selling prices -2 2 2 1 5
Cash position (2) -14 - -18 - -22
Past workforce size 0 -3 -4 -6 -9
Expected workforce size -4 -10 -13 -16 -12
Economic uncertainty felt (3) 36 32 33 36 32
Trade and repair of motor vehicles
General business outlook -25 -28 -27 -38 -32
Recent sales -9 -13 -14 -16 -26
Expected sales -8 -8 -18 -22 -17
Ordering intentions -11 -10 -20 -23 -17
Stocks 12 15 22 23 19
Past selling prices (2) 4 - -6 - -2
Expected selling prices 6 -1 -1 -10 -5
Cash position (2) -21 - -17 - -18
Past workforce size -7 -6 -1 -5 -5
Expected workforce size -5 -2 -4 -8 -5
Economic uncertainty felt (3) 41 32 36 38 31
  • (1) Average since 1991 for retail trade and 2003 for trade and repair of motor vehicles (except 2004 for recent and expected sales and ordering intentions, and April 2021 for uncertainty felt).
  • (2) Bimonthly question (odd-numbered months).
  • (3) Non-seasonally adjusted balance.
  • Source: INSEE - monthly survey in retail trade and in trade and repair of motor vehicles.

Revisions

The business climate for December 2024 in retail trade (including trade and repair of motor vehicles) has been revised upwards by one point (after rounding). This revision is mainly due to the inclusion of late responses from companies.

For more information

The whole sector “retail trade and trade and repair of motor vehicles” is composed for 66% of retail trade and for 34% of trade and repair of motor vehicles.

For the three-modality questions, a balance of opinion is the difference between weighted percentage of “increase” or “above normal” answers and weighted percentage of “decrease” or “below normal” answers.

This survey is part of the Joint Harmonised EU Programme of Business and Consumer Surveys, partly funded by the European Commission.

The responses of this survey were collected between 26 December and 20 January 2025; most companies answer during the first two weeks of collection.

Next issue: 21 February 2025 at 8:45 am.

Pour en savoir plus

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