Insee
Informations Rapides · 23 January 2025 · n° 17
Informations rapidesIn January 2025, the business climate in services is stable Monthly survey of services - January 2025

According to the business managers surveyed in January 2025, the business climate in services is stable. At 96, the indicator that synthesizes it stands below its long-term average (100) for the third month in a row.

Informations rapides
No 17
Paru le :Paru le23/01/2025
Prochaine parution le : 19/09/2025 at 08:45 - September 2025

According to the business managers surveyed in January 2025, the business climate in services is stable. At 96, the indicator that synthesizes it stands below its long-term average (100) for the third month in a row.

Business climate composite indicator

Business climate composite indicator
Business climate composite indicator
2025-01 96.5
2024-12 96.5
2024-11 98.4
2024-10 100.8
2024-09 99.2
2024-08 97.9
2024-07 95.1
2024-06 101.1
2024-05 102.4
2024-04 100.1
2024-03 101.8
2024-02 99.9
2024-01 101.1
2023-12 100.3
2023-11 100.0
2023-10 100.5
2023-09 101.4
2023-08 101.7
2023-07 101.5
2023-06 101.6
2023-05 101.4
2023-04 103.0
2023-03 103.6
2023-02 105.3
2023-01 104.0
2022-12 103.6
2022-11 103.9
2022-10 105.0
2022-09 105.6
2022-08 106.6
2022-07 106.1
2022-06 107.4
2022-05 109.0
2022-04 108.3
2022-03 107.9
2022-02 112.1
2022-01 105.0
2021-12 107.3
2021-11 114.1
2021-10 113.3
2021-09 110.5
2021-08 109.0
2021-07 111.2
2021-06 112.7
2021-05 106.9
2021-04 91.4
2021-03 93.2
2021-02 87.6
2021-01 90.8
2020-12 89.2
2020-11 75.5
2020-10 87.5
2020-09 93.7
2020-08 93.6
2020-07 88.6
2020-06 77.4
2020-05 49.1
2020-04 37.8
2020-03 91.7
2020-02 105.9
2020-01 106.0
2019-12 106.5
2019-11 105.9
2019-10 105.6
2019-09 106.0
2019-08 105.5
2019-07 105.0
2019-06 105.8
2019-05 105.5
2019-04 105.5
2019-03 104.4
2019-02 103.7
2019-01 103.5
2018-12 101.8
2018-11 103.5
2018-10 103.3
2018-09 104.7
2018-08 104.4
2018-07 104.6
2018-06 104.6
2018-05 104.3
2018-04 105.9
2018-03 106.8
2018-02 106.9
2018-01 107.7
2017-12 108.9
2017-11 107.2
2017-10 106.7
2017-09 106.8
2017-08 106.8
2017-07 104.1
2017-06 103.5
2017-05 102.9
2017-04 103.1
2017-03 103.1
2017-02 102.9
2017-01 101.7
2016-12 103.6
2016-11 100.9
2016-10 100.8
2016-09 100.8
2016-08 100.1
2016-07 100.4
2016-06 99.2
2016-05 100.8
2016-04 98.3
2016-03 99.5
2016-02 99.9
2016-01 100.2
2015-12 97.1
2015-11 99.3
2015-10 99.4
2015-09 97.6
2015-08 98.5
2015-07 97.4
2015-06 96.8
2015-05 95.4
2015-04 93.9
2015-03 92.3
2015-02 91.4
2015-01 91.1
2014-12 91.3
2014-11 91.1
2014-10 91.0
2014-09 90.9
2014-08 91.4
2014-07 92.4
2014-06 92.2
2014-05 92.2
2014-04 93.2
2014-03 93.1
2014-02 92.1
2014-01 92.2
2013-12 90.8
2013-11 92.3
2013-10 91.8
2013-09 92.3
2013-08 88.6
2013-07 86.5
2013-06 85.8
2013-05 84.4
2013-04 83.0
2013-03 84.0
2013-02 87.0
2013-01 88.0
2012-12 87.0
2012-11 85.5
2012-10 85.9
2012-09 87.0
2012-08 87.3
2012-07 89.5
2012-06 90.0
2012-05 91.9
2012-04 95.6
2012-03 93.2
2012-02 91.8
2012-01 92.3
2011-12 94.4
2011-11 95.0
2011-10 97.2
2011-09 98.3
2011-08 100.6
2011-07 105.2
2011-06 107.2
2011-05 107.5
2011-04 109.0
2011-03 110.4
2011-02 109.3
2011-01 107.3
2010-12 106.9
2010-11 104.9
2010-10 102.9
2010-09 101.7
2010-08 100.7
2010-07 99.2
2010-06 98.3
2010-05 99.4
2010-04 97.8
2010-03 94.4
2010-02 94.3
2010-01 94.0
2009-12 92.6
2009-11 92.2
2009-10 90.6
2009-09 87.4
2009-08 84.0
2009-07 81.5
2009-06 77.6
2009-05 73.0
2009-04 68.7
2009-03 68.2
2009-02 73.3
2009-01 74.5
2008-12 77.2
2008-11 80.1
2008-10 84.1
2008-09 92.9
2008-08 94.9
2008-07 96.4
2008-06 100.8
2008-05 104.1
2008-04 106.7
2008-03 108.5
2008-02 108.6
2008-01 110.5
2007-12 109.1
2007-11 110.2
2007-10 110.1
2007-09 111.6
2007-08 112.4
2007-07 113.3
2007-06 112.8
2007-05 113.0
2007-04 113.2
2007-03 113.5
2007-02 112.5
2007-01 111.0
2006-12 111.4
2006-11 113.2
2006-10 110.8
2006-09 110.7
2006-08 110.6
2006-07 110.5
2006-06 109.2
2006-05 110.6
2006-04 107.8
2006-03 107.5
2006-02 106.3
2006-01 109.2
2005-12 107.1
2005-11 106.6
2005-10 108.4
2005-09 106.8
2005-08 107.2
2005-07 107.6
2005-06 108.3
2005-05 106.2
2005-04 108.1
2005-03 108.4
2005-02 106.4
2005-01 106.5

Business climate composite indicator

  • Source: INSEE.

The balances of opinion on the past activity and on the expected demand have deteriorated a little; the one on the general business outlook has slightly improved

In January 2025, the business managers in services are a little more pessimistic than in the previous month about their past activity and the expected demand. The balance of opinion on the general business outlook has slightly increased and the one on the personal business outlook is stable. These four balances of opinion stand below their long-term average for three months.

The balances related to the recent and expected change of the selling prices are stable, above their average.

The balance on the economic uncertainty felt has risen again.

Expected prices in services

Expected prices in services
Expected prices
2025-01 3.9
2024-12 4.1
2024-11 -0.6
2024-10 7.3
2024-09 2.8
2024-08 1.0
2024-07 2.9
2024-06 4.3
2024-05 2.8
2024-04 7.2
2024-03 8.2
2024-02 7.7
2024-01 6.8
2023-12 7.0
2023-11 3.7
2023-10 5.3
2023-09 7.6
2023-08 6.9
2023-07 6.3
2023-06 6.2
2023-05 7.0
2023-04 13.4
2023-03 14.1
2023-02 15.8
2023-01 19.1
2022-12 17.3
2022-11 12.4
2022-10 12.2
2022-09 10.4
2022-08 10.3
2022-07 10.9
2022-06 10.9
2022-05 9.9
2022-04 11.6
2022-03 7.7
2022-02 8.0
2022-01 7.4
2021-12 6.5
2021-11 6.3
2021-10 4.4
2021-09 3.3
2021-08 4.0
2021-07 3.8
2021-06 0.6
2021-05 -1.1
2021-04 -8.6
2021-03 -7.6
2021-02 -11.5
2021-01 -9.8
2020-12 -7.3
2020-11 -13.0
2020-10 -9.0
2020-09 -3.4
2020-08 -5.4
2020-07 -8.6
2020-06 -12.6
2020-05 -22.9
2020-04 -23.1
2020-03 -3.4
2020-02 0.5
2020-01 0.1
2019-12 0.8
2019-11 -0.4
2019-10 1.6
2019-09 -1.1
2019-08 -1.1
2019-07 0.1
2019-06 0.2
2019-05 -2.0
2019-04 -2.5
2019-03 -1.0
2019-02 -2.3
2019-01 -2.2
2018-12 0.3
2018-11 -2.5
2018-10 -2.9
2018-09 -2.1
2018-08 -0.7
2018-07 -6.8
2018-06 -4.8
2018-05 -2.2
2018-04 -3.0
2018-03 -3.2
2018-02 -3.4
2018-01 -2.4
2017-12 -3.3
2017-11 -2.7
2017-10 -2.5
2017-09 -2.4
2017-08 -5.6
2017-07 -7.0
2017-06 -4.2
2017-05 -5.1
2017-04 -5.3
2017-03 -3.7
2017-02 -3.2
2017-01 -6.3
2016-12 -5.5
2016-11 -7.7
2016-10 -6.8
2016-09 -4.8
2016-08 -5.2
2016-07 -4.7
2016-06 -6.8
2016-05 -6.2
2016-04 -4.9
2016-03 -5.1
2016-02 -4.6
2016-01 -8.5
2015-12 -8.9
2015-11 -5.8
2015-10 -5.9
2015-09 -7.5
2015-08 -6.4
2015-07 -6.9
2015-06 -6.1
2015-05 -6.2
2015-04 -7.8
2015-03 -9.8
2015-02 -9.7
2015-01 -11.4
2014-12 -11.0
2014-11 -10.3
2014-10 -9.5
2014-09 -10.6
2014-08 -9.0
2014-07 -9.2
2014-06 -9.3
2014-05 -9.9
2014-04 -9.6
2014-03 -10.8
2014-02 -11.0
2014-01 -8.4
2013-12 -9.4
2013-11 -8.5
2013-10 -10.1
2013-09 -10.4
2013-08 -10.7
2013-07 -12.3
2013-06 -12.0
2013-05 -12.3
2013-04 -12.3
2013-03 -12.0
2013-02 -11.9
2013-01 -9.8
2012-12 -9.2
2012-11 -9.6
2012-10 -11.0
2012-09 -7.6
2012-08 -7.8
2012-07 -4.3
2012-06 -6.0
2012-05 -5.6
2012-04 -4.2
2012-03 -0.7
2012-02 -3.4
2012-01 0.5
2011-12 -2.3
2011-11 -4.3
2011-10 -3.0
2011-09 -1.6
2011-08 -1.5
2011-07 -0.3
2011-06 0.5
2011-05 5.1
2011-04 2.4
2011-03 3.5
2011-02 3.3
2011-01 -0.1
2010-12 0.0
2010-11 -1.1
2010-10 -0.9
2010-09 -3.1
2010-08 -3.8
2010-07 -7.7
2010-06 -5.4
2010-05 -5.7
2010-04 -7.8
2010-03 -7.5
2010-02 -9.0
2010-01 -8.5
2009-12 -10.1
2009-11 -10.1
2009-10 -9.4
2009-09 -12.4
2009-08 -14.4
2009-07 -18.5
2009-06 -15.4
2009-05 -17.8
2009-04 -17.7
2009-03 -17.1
2009-02 -13.1
2009-01 -13.1
2008-12 -13.8
2008-11 -9.6
2008-10 -2.7
2008-09 0.3
2008-08 1.5
2008-07 3.4
2008-06 3.2
2008-05 3.4
2008-04 3.9
2008-03 2.6
2008-02 2.1
2008-01 2.2
2007-12 3.0
2007-11 2.7
2007-10 1.3
2007-09 2.3
2007-08 3.2
2007-07 3.4
2007-06 2.1
2007-05 2.9
2007-04 2.2
2007-03 1.5
2007-02 1.1
2007-01 1.8

Expected prices in services

  • Source: INSEE.

In January 2025, the balance of opinion on the past workforce size has sharply rebounded and the one on the expected workforce size has rebounded more slightly. Both remain well below their average

The share of business managers reporting difficulties in recruitment has diminished compared to the previous quarter and has reached its lowest level since April 2021.

The quarterly balance of opinion on the expected investment for the next three months has rebounded after two quarters of decline but remains just below its average.

Concerning the obstacles preventing them from increasing their activity, the shares of business managers reporting only difficulties of demand or of supply are stable since last October. They are less numerous to report difficulties of demand and supply at the same time. These three shares remain below their long-term average.

The quarterly balance on the cash position is virtually stable compared to October 2024, at its average level.

Economic outlook in the services sector

Balances of opinion, in %, seasonally adjusted
Economic outlook in the services sector (Balances of opinion, in %, seasonally adjusted)
Average* Oct. 2024 Nov. 2024 Dec. 2024 Jan. 2025
Composite indicator 100 101 98 96 96
General outlook -7 -6 -8 -9 -8
Past activity 2 0 -1 1 -2
Expected activity 1 4 -1 -3 -3
Expected demand 0 2 -1 -5 -7
Past selling prices -3 0 -4 1 1
Expected selling prices -2 7 -1 4 4
Past employment 2 -9 -3 -8 -3
          Past employment except temporary work agencies 0 -8 -3 -3 -4
Expected employment 2 -5 -4 -6 -5
          Expected employment except temporary work agencies 0 -2 -2 -3 -2
Cash position*** -11 -12 -11
Difficulties
          difficulties of supply and demand (in %)*** 9 9 5
          difficulties of supply only (in %)*** 23 17 17
          difficulties of demand only (in %)*** 28 18 18
Difficulties in recruitment (in %)*** 32 39 36
Expected investments*** 3 -2 2
Economic uncertainty felt** 12 12 10 11 13
  • * Average since 1989 for the composite indicator and since 1988 for the balances of opinion, except general outlook (June 2000) and uncertainty (April 2021).
  • ** Balance of opinion not seasonally adjusted.
  • *** Balance of opinion from the quarterly section of the survey.
  • Source: INSEE, monthly business survey in services.

The business climate stands below its long-term average in all services sub-sectors, except for real estate activities

In information-communication, the business climate indicator is stable, well below its long-term average. The balances on the activity, past and expected, have sharply diminished, while those on the expected demand and on the general business outlook have rebounded. Those four balances remain below their average.

In professional, scientific and technical activities, the business climate is stable, below its average since June 2024. The balances related to the activity have increased again, while those on the workforce size have retreated; all remain below their average.

In administrative and support services, the business climate indicator has slightly improved, but remains below its long-term average since December 2023. In particular, the balances on the activity have risen, as those on the workforce size which have sharply improved; all remain below their average.

The business climate indicator in real estate activities has retreated, but remains above its average. In particular, the balances of opinion on the activity and the one on the expected demand have sharply deteriorated, while remaining above their average.

In accommodation and food services, the business climate has darkened again and moved below its average level. The balances on the general business outlook, on the expected demand and future activity have diminished and moved away from their average. Conversely, the one on the past activity has increased clearly and moved away from its own.

Finally, in road freight transport, the business climate indicator has brightened but remains far from its average. The forward-looking balances of opinion on the demand, activity and general business outlook have improved but the one on the expected workforce size has sharply deteriorated. All of these balances stand below their average.

Business climate composite indicator and balances of opinion by sub-sector in services

Balances of opinion, in %, seasonally adjusted
Business climate composite indicator and balances of opinion by sub-sector in services (Balances of opinion, in %, seasonally adjusted)
Aggregated classification (NA 2008) at level A21 Average* Oct. 2024 Nov. 2024 Dec. 2024 Jan. 2025
Road freight transport (8%)
Composite indicator 100 95 93 94 96
General outlook -18 -30 -28 -24 -22
Past activity -6 -14 -11 -14 -16
Expected activity -7 -16 -19 -18 -12
Expected demand -9 -18 -25 -23 -19
Past employment -6 -4 -13 -10 -8
Expected employment -7 -11 -10 -4 -11
Accommodation and food service activities (8%)
Composite indicator 100 99 105 101 98
General outlook -13 -14 -7 -14 -15
Past activity -7 -18 -13 -13 8
Expected activity -7 -3 3 -6 -13
Expected demand -9 -9 -3 -3 -17
Past employment -5 -12 0 -3 -1
Expected employment -5 -8 5 -2 4
Information and communication (29%)
Composite indicator 100 100 96 94 94
General outlook 0 -2 -2 -4 -2
Past activity 8 10 7 10 -5
Expected activity 9 19 2 -2 -8
Expected demand 10 21 8 -6 -3
Past employment 6 -5 -2 -9 -8
Expected employment 10 3 -2 1 2
Real estate activities (10%)
Composite indicator 100 99 100 106 104
General outlook -4 -4 -6 -3 2
Past activity 6 11 5 12 8
Expected activity 6 5 9 14 7
Expected demand 1 -3 4 9 3
Past employment 2 1 -8 1 0
Expected employment 3 -1 8 3 7
Professional, scientific and technical activities (25%)
Composite indicator 100 99 95 97 97
General outlook -8 -5 -9 -10 -10
Past activity -1 1 -9 -7 -5
Expected activity -2 -9 -12 -8 -5
Expected demand -5 -10 -12 -13 -13
Past employment 1 3 2 6 -5
Expected employment 1 -1 -2 2 -5
Administrative and support service activities (18%)
Composite indicator 100 96 96 96 97
General outlook -3 -2 -5 -7 -5
Past activity 5 -7 -2 -6 -4
Expected activity 5 0 0 -3 4
Expected demand 3 -1 -1 4 -2
Past employment 7 -17 -8 -27 -2
Expected employment 6 -16 -13 -16 -9
  • The figures in parentheses indicate the weights used to aggregate the sub-sector balances of opinion. The “other services” sub-sector is not displayed due to its low weight.
  • * Composite indicator: average since 1989 (2006 for road transport); balances of opinion: average since 1988, except general outlook since June 2000 (2006 for road transport).
  • Source: INSEE, monthly business survey in services.

Revision

The business climate indicator in services of December 2024 is confirmed (after rounding).

For further information

The composite indicators of business climate presented here are estimated independently of one another. Thus, that of the whole services cannot be deduced from the others. The same balances of opinion are included into their calculations, but they are not assigned the same weightings. Also, the indicators are scaled to have a long-run average of 100 and a standard deviation of 10. The climate series do not have the same historical beginning, so their standardisation differs slightly. Discrepancies may therefore appear from time to time.

For the three-modality questions, a balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the weighted percentage of “increase” responses and the weighted percentage of “decrease” responses.

This survey is part of the Joint Harmonised EU Programme of Business and Consumer Surveys, partly funded by the European Commission.

The responses to this survey were collected between 26 December 2024 and 20 January 2025; most companies answer during the first two weeks of collection.

Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of the web page of this publication.

Next issue: 21 February 2025 at 8:45 am.

Pour en savoir plus

The composite indicators of business climate presented here are estimated independently of one another. Thus, that of the whole services cannot be deduced from the others. The same balances of opinion are included into their calculations, but they are not assigned the same weightings. Also, the indicators are scaled to have a long-run average of 100 and a standard deviation of 10. The climate series do not have the same historical beginning, so their standardisation differs slightly. Discrepancies may therefore appear from time to time.

For the three-modality questions, a balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the weighted percentage of “increase” responses and the weighted percentage of “decrease” responses.

This survey is part of the Joint Harmonised EU Programme of Business and Consumer Surveys, partly funded by the European Commission.

The responses to this survey were collected between 26 December 2024 and 20 January 2025; most companies answer during the first two weeks of collection.

Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of the web page of this publication.

Next issue: 21 February 2025 at 8:45 am.

: bureau-de-presse@insee.fr