Informations Rapides ·
21 November 2024 · n° 289
In November 2024, the business climate in wholesale trade has retreated Bimonthly survey of wholesaling - November 2024
According to the business managers surveyed in November 2024, the bimonthly business climate in wholesale trade has retreated. At 93, the composite indicator has lost two points and remains, for the twelfth two-month period in a row, below its long-term average (100). This deterioration reflects, in particular, the decrease in the balances of opinion concerning the ordering intentions and the merchandise received from abroad.
- The opinion related to the ordering intentions has deteriorated
- The balance of opinion on the expected selling prices has rebounded
- Wholesalers remain pessimistic concerning the expected evolution of their workforce size
- The balance of opinion on the level of inventories has rebounded
- Revisions
- Further information
According to the business managers surveyed in November 2024, the bimonthly business climate in wholesale trade has retreated. At 93, the composite indicator has lost two points and remains, for the twelfth two-month period in a row, below its long-term average (100). This deterioration reflects, in particular, the decrease in the balances of opinion concerning the ordering intentions and the merchandise received from abroad.
tableauComposite indicator
| Composite indicator | |
|---|---|
| 2024-B6 | 92.8 |
| 2024-B5 | 95.0 |
| 2024-B4 | 92.6 |
| 2024-B3 | 95.3 |
| 2024-B2 | 95.9 |
| 2024-B1 | 91.6 |
| 2023-B6 | 91.9 |
| 2023-B5 | 93.8 |
| 2023-B4 | 92.8 |
| 2023-B3 | 94.8 |
| 2023-B2 | 98.6 |
| 2023-B1 | 97.6 |
| 2022-B6 | 100.5 |
| 2022-B5 | 96.1 |
| 2022-B4 | 100.9 |
| 2022-B3 | 101.7 |
| 2022-B2 | 105.4 |
| 2022-B1 | 116.4 |
| 2021-B6 | 113.4 |
| 2021-B5 | 108.7 |
| 2021-B4 | 112.6 |
| 2021-B3 | 110.4 |
| 2021-B2 | 99.2 |
| 2021-B1 | 96.8 |
| 2020-B6 | 85.7 |
| 2020-B5 | 89.4 |
| 2020-B4 | 78.2 |
| 2020-B3 | 66.4 |
| 2020-B2 | 96.9 |
| 2020-B1 | 105.3 |
| 2019-B6 | 105.9 |
| 2019-B5 | 106.3 |
| 2019-B4 | 105.3 |
| 2019-B3 | 107.5 |
| 2019-B2 | 105.7 |
| 2019-B1 | 100.9 |
| 2018-B6 | 103.5 |
| 2018-B5 | 103.7 |
| 2018-B4 | 101.5 |
| 2018-B3 | 104.8 |
| 2018-B2 | 109.6 |
| 2018-B1 | 108.8 |
| 2017-B6 | 110.8 |
| 2017-B5 | 108.6 |
| 2017-B4 | 108.9 |
| 2017-B3 | 104.6 |
| 2017-B2 | 102.9 |
| 2017-B1 | 105.0 |
| 2016-B6 | 98.1 |
| 2016-B5 | 97.5 |
| 2016-B4 | 103.1 |
| 2016-B3 | 101.8 |
| 2016-B2 | 99.6 |
| 2016-B1 | 102.6 |
| 2015-B6 | 101.7 |
| 2015-B5 | 99.5 |
| 2015-B4 | 102.0 |
| 2015-B3 | 101.0 |
| 2015-B2 | 96.3 |
| 2015-B1 | 95.7 |
| 2014-B6 | 95.3 |
| 2014-B5 | 90.8 |
| 2014-B4 | 96.2 |
| 2014-B3 | 97.8 |
| 2014-B2 | 98.0 |
| 2014-B1 | 97.1 |
| 2013-B6 | 97.8 |
| 2013-B5 | 97.0 |
| 2013-B4 | 87.5 |
| 2013-B3 | 87.7 |
| 2013-B2 | 88.3 |
| 2013-B1 | 88.9 |
| 2012-B6 | 89.0 |
| 2012-B5 | 90.9 |
| 2012-B4 | 94.8 |
| 2012-B3 | 92.9 |
| 2012-B2 | 99.5 |
| 2012-B1 | 95.4 |
| 2011-B6 | 96.1 |
| 2011-B5 | 100.2 |
| 2011-B4 | 106.0 |
| 2011-B3 | 107.4 |
| 2011-B2 | 108.4 |
| 2011-B1 | 106.2 |
| 2010-B6 | 104.6 |
| 2010-B5 | 105.2 |
| 2010-B4 | 100.5 |
| 2010-B3 | 94.7 |
| 2010-B2 | 85.1 |
| 2010-B1 | 85.1 |
| 2009-B6 | 77.9 |
| 2009-B5 | 76.4 |
| 2009-B4 | 70.8 |
| 2009-B3 | 68.6 |
| 2009-B2 | 67.1 |
| 2009-B1 | 79.1 |
| 2008-B6 | 84.0 |
| 2008-B5 | 94.3 |
| 2008-B4 | 96.8 |
| 2008-B3 | 101.6 |
| 2008-B2 | 106.8 |
| 2008-B1 | 107.5 |
| 2007-B6 | 109.1 |
| 2007-B5 | 111.7 |
| 2007-B4 | 107.7 |
| 2007-B3 | 110.7 |
| 2007-B2 | 111.8 |
| 2007-B1 | 108.3 |
| 2006-B6 | 110.3 |
| 2006-B5 | 107.1 |
| 2006-B4 | 107.6 |
| 2006-B3 | 102.0 |
| 2006-B2 | 99.3 |
| 2006-B1 | 103.8 |
| 2005-B6 | 99.6 |
| 2005-B5 | 94.9 |
| 2005-B4 | 96.1 |
| 2005-B3 | 92.5 |
| 2005-B2 | 97.5 |
| 2005-B1 | 100.8 |
graphiqueComposite indicator
- Source: INSEE - business tendency survey in wholesale trade.
The opinion related to the ordering intentions has deteriorated
In November 2024, the balance of opinion of wholesalers regarding the ordering intentions, as well as the one specific to those placed from abroad, has diminished and moved away from its long-term average. This decrease can be seen particularly in the sub-sector of the wholesale trade of information and communication equipments and in “other specialised wholesale trade”.
The balance on the merchandise received from abroad has retreated and moved below its long-term average. The one on the general business outlook has retreated sharply and has moved away from its own. Finally, the balance on the past sales has retreated a bit and has moved away from its average, despite a rebound in the balance on the past sales abroad.
tableauEconomic outlook in the wholesale trade sector
| Ave. (1) | May 24 | July 24 | Sept. 24 | Nov. 24 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business climate | 100 | 95 | 93 | 95 | 93 |
| General business outlook | -23 | -24 | -41 | -29 | -35 |
| Sales | -14 | -24 | -27 | -23 | -24 |
| export sales | -15 | -18 | -19 | -23 | -21 |
| Received merchandise | -10 | -22 | -21 | -19 | -18 |
| received from abroad | -11 | -16 | -17 | -11 | -14 |
| Ordering intentions | -15 | -17 | -20 | -20 | -24 |
| ordering from abroad | -15 | -16 | -19 | -18 | -22 |
| Shipments abroad | -15 | -14 | -18 | -22 | -18 |
| Stocks | 8 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 4 |
| Past workforce | -1 | -11 | -11 | -8 | -12 |
| Expected workforce | -2 | -2 | -5 | -7 | -6 |
| Cash position | -9 | -6 | -8 | -8 | -10 |
| Past selling prices | 8 | -2 | 5 | -1 | -5 |
| Expected selling prices | 15 | 6 | 8 | 3 | 7 |
- (1) Average since July 1979.
- Source: INSEE - business tendency survey in wholesale trade
The balance of opinion on the expected selling prices has rebounded
In November 2024, the balance of opinion of wholesalers on the expected selling prices has rebounded and has moved a bit closer to its long-term average. The one on the past selling prices has diminished again strongly and has moved away from its own.
Wholesalers remain pessimistic concerning the expected evolution of their workforce size
The balance of opinion on the expected change in the workforce size is almost stable below its average, after a decline almost uninterrupted since March 2022. As for the one on its recent change, it has retreated sharply and has moved away from its own.
The balance of opinion on the level of inventories has rebounded
The balance of opinion on the level of inventories has rebounded and moved closer to its average. It has increased notably in the sub-sectors of wholesale trade of raw agricultural products and live animals, of food products and beverages, of information and communication equipment and in “other specialised wholesale trade”.
Finally, the balance related to the cash position has diminished and moved just below its long-term average.
tableauBalances of opinion by sub-sector in wholesale trade
| Ave. (1) | May 24 | July 24 | Sept. 24 | Nov. 24 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw agricultural products and live animals | |||||
| Sales | -13 | -12 | -13 | -26 | -33 |
| Export sales | -17 | -19 | -19 | -49 | -52 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | -11 | -33 | -27 | -28 | -42 |
| Ordering intentions | -13 | -5 | -10 | -35 | -25 |
| Current stocks | 5 | 9 | 10 | -14 | -9 |
| Food products and beverages | |||||
| Sales | -15 | -18 | -24 | -19 | -20 |
| Export sales | -13 | -14 | -21 | -18 | -10 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | -13 | 2 | -12 | -3 | 1 |
| Ordering intentions | -11 | -12 | -12 | -16 | -18 |
| Current stocks | 4 | 6 | 1 | -3 | 3 |
| Household goods | |||||
| Sales | -10 | -13 | -10 | -18 | -10 |
| Export sales | -11 | -13 | -11 | -18 | -18 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | -6 | -15 | -7 | -10 | -9 |
| Ordering intentions | -13 | -13 | -11 | -7 | -11 |
| Current stocks | 12 | 9 | 13 | 12 | 11 |
| Information and communication equipment | |||||
| Sales | -8 | -6 | -18 | -12 | -9 |
| Export sales | -12 | -26 | -17 | -12 | -12 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | -8 | -16 | -22 | -16 | -14 |
| Ordering intentions | -10 | -4 | -3 | -16 | -24 |
| Current stocks | 8 | 8 | 18 | 7 | 15 |
| Other industrial capital goods | |||||
| Sales | -16 | -36 | -43 | -38 | -43 |
| Export sales | -21 | -30 | -32 | -33 | -32 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | -12 | -27 | -19 | -17 | -26 |
| Ordering intentions | -21 | -30 | -36 | -35 | -38 |
| Current stocks | 12 | 16 | 12 | 12 | 8 |
| Other specialised wholesale trade | |||||
| Sales | -17 | -40 | -41 | -22 | -32 |
| Export sales | -18 | -16 | -17 | -22 | -17 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | -13 | -19 | -23 | -9 | -18 |
| Ordering intentions | -18 | -24 | -31 | -24 | -32 |
| Current stocks | 6 | -9 | -4 | -10 | -4 |
- (1) Average since July 1979.
- Source: INSEE – business tendency survey in wholesale trade
Revisions
The business climate in wholesale trade in September 2024 has not been revised (after rounding).
Further information
A balance of opinion is the difference between the weighted percentage of “above normal” or “increase” answers and the weighted percentage of “below normal” or “decrease” answers.
Answers to this survey have been gathered between 28 October and 18 November 2024, most companies answer during the first two weeks of collection.
Additional information (methodology, links, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of the web page of this publication.
Next issue: 23 January 2024 at 8:45 am.
Pour en savoir plus
Time series : Wholesale trade