Informations Rapides ·
26 January 2024 · n° 22
In January 2024, the business climate in the civil engineering sector has clearly
brightened Quaterly survey of public works - January 2024
In January 2024, business managers appear to be more confident than in October 2023: most of the balances of opinion have increased and stand above their long term average.
In January 2024, business managers appear to be more confident than in October 2023: most of the balances of opinion have increased and stand above their long term average.
Business manager’s opinion on both their expected and past activities has improved significantly
In January 2024, business managers are clearly more optimistic than in October regarding their upcoming activity over the next three months: the corresponding balance of opinion has strongly increased and has gone back above his long term average. Among the companies distinguishing their types of clients, this rise has been sharper within the public sector than the private one.
tableauPublic works economic outlook
| Average* | Apr. 23 | Jul. 23 | Oct. 23 | Jan. 24 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Past activity | -5 | -5 | -15 | -8 | -1 |
| - public-sector project | -11 | -16 | -26 | -20 | -11 |
| - private-sector project | -8 | -2 | -12 | -15 | -5 |
| Expected activity | -12 | -8 | -15 | -14 | 3 |
| - public-sector project | -15 | -16 | -26 | -20 | 4 |
| - private-sector project | -14 | -7 | -16 | -11 | -8 |
| Opinion on order books | -23 | -13 | -18 | -20 | -12 |
| Obstacles to production increase because of workforce shortage (in %) | 18 | 44 | 43 | 43 | 46 |
| Expected workforce | -11 | 3 | 10 | 5 | 15 |
| Economic uncertainty felt** | 25 | 25 | 17 | 31 | 21 |
- Note: the balances of opinion by custumer may differ from the balance of the whole, because sometimes the firms don't distinguish public-sector project and private-sector project.
- * Average since January 1981 and since April 2021 for the balances of opinion on the economic uncertainty felt.
- ** Non-seasonally adjusted balance of opinion
- Source: INSEE and FNTP
tableauActivity tendency in civil engineering
| Past activity | Expected activity | |
|---|---|---|
| 2024-Q1 | -1.0 | 2.9 |
| 2023-Q4 | -8.0 | -13.8 |
| 2023-Q3 | -15.0 | -15.0 |
| 2023-Q2 | -4.9 | -8.1 |
| 2023-Q1 | 5.0 | -12.1 |
| 2022-Q4 | -4.0 | -6.8 |
| 2022-Q3 | 5.0 | -18.0 |
| 2022-Q2 | 3.0 | -13.4 |
| 2022-Q1 | -4.8 | -1.0 |
| 2021-Q4 | -2.6 | 6.0 |
| 2021-Q3 | 15.6 | 5.4 |
| 2021-Q2 | -9.8 | -8.0 |
| 2021-Q1 | -8.9 | -19.8 |
| 2020-Q4 | 3.6 | -29.8 |
| 2020-Q3 | -89.9 | 17.7 |
| 2020-Q2 | NaN | NaN |
| 2020-Q1 | 19.3 | -4.5 |
| 2019-Q4 | 29.2 | 10.5 |
| 2019-Q3 | 29.9 | 18.6 |
| 2019-Q2 | 37.3 | 22.8 |
| 2019-Q1 | 32.8 | 25.9 |
| 2018-Q4 | 43.2 | 26.5 |
| 2018-Q3 | 29.6 | 27.8 |
| 2018-Q2 | 28.1 | 32.6 |
| 2018-Q1 | 36.2 | 22.7 |
| 2017-Q4 | 32.5 | 31.4 |
| 2017-Q3 | 36.2 | 28.4 |
| 2017-Q2 | 27.8 | 19.5 |
| 2017-Q1 | 11.2 | 3.4 |
| 2016-Q4 | 9.4 | -5.5 |
| 2016-Q3 | -5.6 | -1.0 |
| 2016-Q2 | -16.8 | -15.4 |
| 2016-Q1 | -18.5 | -15.6 |
| 2015-Q4 | -37.5 | -15.0 |
| 2015-Q3 | -41.0 | -31.7 |
| 2015-Q2 | -50.2 | -43.5 |
| 2015-Q1 | -59.9 | -42.3 |
| 2014-Q4 | -60.3 | -54.5 |
| 2014-Q3 | -45.6 | -48.4 |
| 2014-Q2 | 4.2 | -30.4 |
| 2014-Q1 | -4.2 | -25.6 |
| 2013-Q4 | 3.3 | -15.6 |
| 2013-Q3 | -7.4 | -11.9 |
| 2013-Q2 | -18.4 | -13.5 |
| 2013-Q1 | -11.3 | -13.3 |
| 2012-Q4 | -9.8 | -26.5 |
| 2012-Q3 | -22.6 | -7.6 |
| 2012-Q2 | -12.9 | -6.8 |
| 2012-Q1 | 7.0 | -12.4 |
| 2011-Q4 | 8.6 | -4.3 |
| 2011-Q3 | 26.5 | 0.1 |
| 2011-Q2 | 36.8 | 2.3 |
| 2011-Q1 | -32.5 | 0.0 |
| 2010-Q4 | -7.9 | -17.9 |
| 2010-Q3 | -15.9 | -23.9 |
| 2010-Q2 | -33.7 | -20.5 |
| 2010-Q1 | -23.1 | -16.7 |
| 2009-Q4 | -33.3 | -16.1 |
| 2009-Q3 | -50.5 | -34.0 |
| 2009-Q2 | -48.8 | -52.0 |
| 2009-Q1 | -55.3 | -50.6 |
| 2008-Q4 | -30.5 | -47.6 |
| 2008-Q3 | -10.8 | -26.0 |
| 2008-Q2 | 16.3 | -16.0 |
| 2008-Q1 | 20.1 | 2.7 |
| 2007-Q4 | 22.8 | 14.6 |
| 2007-Q3 | 36.2 | 13.9 |
| 2007-Q2 | 39.7 | 21.5 |
| 2007-Q1 | 39.0 | 16.9 |
- Data for the second quarter of 2020 are not available, the response rate to this survey was greatly affected in April in the context of the health crisis.
graphiqueActivity tendency in civil engineering
- Data for the second quarter of 2020 are not available, the response rate to this survey was greatly affected in April in the context of the health crisis.
- Sources: FNTP and INSEE.
Business managers have once again judged more favourably than in the previous quarter the evolution of their activity over the past three month: the associated balance of opinion has sharply increased, going back above its long term average. The same movement is observed among companies distinguishing their client types: the balances of opinion on the past activities within both the private and the public sector have also risen.
Less business managers than in October have considered the evolution of their company situation to be unpredictable: the balance of opinion about the felt economic uncertainty has dropped back.
The order books are judged more garnished than in October
In January 2024, business managers’ balance of opinion on the level of their order books has increased, moving away from its long term average.
Employment prospects have strongly improved
In January 2024, the balance of opinion about the workforce size over the next three months has strongly rebounded. It stands clearly above its long term average.
Difficulties due to a lack of manpower remain acute
In January 2024, 46% of companies have reported to be facing difficulties due to a lack of manpower, increasing by 3 points compared to October 2023. This share remains well above its long term average.
For further information
A balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentage of “increase” responses and the percentage of “decrease” responses.
Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of this page.
The responses to this survey have been collected between 14 December 2023 and 17 January 2024.
Next issue: 26 April 2024 at 12:00 pm.
Documentation
Abbreviated methodology (pdf,123 Ko)
Pour en savoir plus
A balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentage of “increase” responses and the percentage of “decrease” responses.
Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of this page.
The responses to this survey have been collected between 14 December 2023 and 17 January 2024.
Next issue: 26 April 2024 at 12:00 pm.