Informations Rapides ·
24 August 2023 · n° 211
In August 2023, the business climate has deteriorated in services Monthly survey of services - August 2023
According to the business managers surveyed in August 2023, the business climate has deteriorated in services. At 100, the indicator that synthesizes it has returned to its long-term average, its lowest level since April 2021.
According to the business managers surveyed in August 2023, the business climate has deteriorated in services. At 100, the indicator that synthesizes it has returned to its long-term average, its lowest level since April 2021.
tableauBusiness climate composite indicator
| Business climate composite indicator | |
|---|---|
| 2023-08 | 100.0 |
| 2023-07 | 101.6 |
| 2023-06 | 101.9 |
| 2023-05 | 101.3 |
| 2023-04 | 103.0 |
| 2023-03 | 104.6 |
| 2023-02 | 105.2 |
| 2023-01 | 104.4 |
| 2022-12 | 103.5 |
| 2022-11 | 103.4 |
| 2022-10 | 104.4 |
| 2022-09 | 105.5 |
| 2022-08 | 106.5 |
| 2022-07 | 106.1 |
| 2022-06 | 107.5 |
| 2022-05 | 108.6 |
| 2022-04 | 108.2 |
| 2022-03 | 108.6 |
| 2022-02 | 111.5 |
| 2022-01 | 105.1 |
| 2021-12 | 107.1 |
| 2021-11 | 113.3 |
| 2021-10 | 112.3 |
| 2021-09 | 110.1 |
| 2021-08 | 108.6 |
| 2021-07 | 110.7 |
| 2021-06 | 112.3 |
| 2021-05 | 106.4 |
| 2021-04 | 91.6 |
| 2021-03 | 93.9 |
| 2021-02 | 87.7 |
| 2021-01 | 91.1 |
| 2020-12 | 89.4 |
| 2020-11 | 76.1 |
| 2020-10 | 87.5 |
| 2020-09 | 93.8 |
| 2020-08 | 93.6 |
| 2020-07 | 88.7 |
| 2020-06 | 77.9 |
| 2020-05 | 50.4 |
| 2020-04 | 39.6 |
| 2020-03 | 92.4 |
| 2020-02 | 105.7 |
| 2020-01 | 106.0 |
| 2019-12 | 106.3 |
| 2019-11 | 105.7 |
| 2019-10 | 105.1 |
| 2019-09 | 105.6 |
| 2019-08 | 105.1 |
| 2019-07 | 104.7 |
| 2019-06 | 105.5 |
| 2019-05 | 105.4 |
| 2019-04 | 105.5 |
| 2019-03 | 104.6 |
| 2019-02 | 103.6 |
| 2019-01 | 103.5 |
| 2018-12 | 101.8 |
| 2018-11 | 103.4 |
| 2018-10 | 102.9 |
| 2018-09 | 104.4 |
| 2018-08 | 104.0 |
| 2018-07 | 104.3 |
| 2018-06 | 104.3 |
| 2018-05 | 104.2 |
| 2018-04 | 105.9 |
| 2018-03 | 106.8 |
| 2018-02 | 106.7 |
| 2018-01 | 107.5 |
| 2017-12 | 108.6 |
| 2017-11 | 107.0 |
| 2017-10 | 106.3 |
| 2017-09 | 106.4 |
| 2017-08 | 106.2 |
| 2017-07 | 103.8 |
| 2017-06 | 103.1 |
| 2017-05 | 102.8 |
| 2017-04 | 103.2 |
| 2017-03 | 103.2 |
| 2017-02 | 102.9 |
| 2017-01 | 101.6 |
| 2016-12 | 103.4 |
| 2016-11 | 100.8 |
| 2016-10 | 100.7 |
| 2016-09 | 100.7 |
| 2016-08 | 100.1 |
| 2016-07 | 100.3 |
| 2016-06 | 99.1 |
| 2016-05 | 100.7 |
| 2016-04 | 98.3 |
| 2016-03 | 99.5 |
| 2016-02 | 99.8 |
| 2016-01 | 100.1 |
| 2015-12 | 97.1 |
| 2015-11 | 99.2 |
| 2015-10 | 99.4 |
| 2015-09 | 97.6 |
| 2015-08 | 98.5 |
| 2015-07 | 97.4 |
| 2015-06 | 96.8 |
| 2015-05 | 95.4 |
| 2015-04 | 94.0 |
| 2015-03 | 92.4 |
| 2015-02 | 91.6 |
| 2015-01 | 91.3 |
| 2014-12 | 91.4 |
| 2014-11 | 91.3 |
| 2014-10 | 91.3 |
| 2014-09 | 91.1 |
| 2014-08 | 91.6 |
| 2014-07 | 92.6 |
| 2014-06 | 92.3 |
| 2014-05 | 92.3 |
| 2014-04 | 93.3 |
| 2014-03 | 93.2 |
| 2014-02 | 92.3 |
| 2014-01 | 92.4 |
| 2013-12 | 91.0 |
| 2013-11 | 92.5 |
| 2013-10 | 91.9 |
| 2013-09 | 92.4 |
| 2013-08 | 88.8 |
| 2013-07 | 86.8 |
| 2013-06 | 86.1 |
| 2013-05 | 84.9 |
| 2013-04 | 83.5 |
| 2013-03 | 84.4 |
| 2013-02 | 87.3 |
| 2013-01 | 88.4 |
| 2012-12 | 87.3 |
| 2012-11 | 85.8 |
| 2012-10 | 86.3 |
| 2012-09 | 87.4 |
| 2012-08 | 87.6 |
| 2012-07 | 89.8 |
| 2012-06 | 90.2 |
| 2012-05 | 92.1 |
| 2012-04 | 95.7 |
| 2012-03 | 93.4 |
| 2012-02 | 92.1 |
| 2012-01 | 92.6 |
| 2011-12 | 94.7 |
| 2011-11 | 95.2 |
| 2011-10 | 97.3 |
| 2011-09 | 98.4 |
| 2011-08 | 100.5 |
| 2011-07 | 105.0 |
| 2011-06 | 107.0 |
| 2011-05 | 107.4 |
| 2011-04 | 108.7 |
| 2011-03 | 110.2 |
| 2011-02 | 109.0 |
| 2011-01 | 107.0 |
| 2010-12 | 106.7 |
| 2010-11 | 104.7 |
| 2010-10 | 102.8 |
| 2010-09 | 101.6 |
| 2010-08 | 100.6 |
| 2010-07 | 99.1 |
| 2010-06 | 98.3 |
| 2010-05 | 99.3 |
| 2010-04 | 97.7 |
| 2010-03 | 94.5 |
| 2010-02 | 94.4 |
| 2010-01 | 94.1 |
| 2009-12 | 92.7 |
| 2009-11 | 92.3 |
| 2009-10 | 90.8 |
| 2009-09 | 87.7 |
| 2009-08 | 84.4 |
| 2009-07 | 81.9 |
| 2009-06 | 78.2 |
| 2009-05 | 73.6 |
| 2009-04 | 69.5 |
| 2009-03 | 69.1 |
| 2009-02 | 74.1 |
| 2009-01 | 75.3 |
| 2008-12 | 77.9 |
| 2008-11 | 80.8 |
| 2008-10 | 84.7 |
| 2008-09 | 93.2 |
| 2008-08 | 95.2 |
| 2008-07 | 96.7 |
| 2008-06 | 101.0 |
| 2008-05 | 104.2 |
| 2008-04 | 106.6 |
| 2008-03 | 108.3 |
| 2008-02 | 108.4 |
| 2008-01 | 110.2 |
| 2007-12 | 108.8 |
| 2007-11 | 110.0 |
| 2007-10 | 109.8 |
| 2007-09 | 111.2 |
| 2007-08 | 112.0 |
| 2007-07 | 112.9 |
| 2007-06 | 112.4 |
| 2007-05 | 112.6 |
| 2007-04 | 112.8 |
| 2007-03 | 113.1 |
| 2007-02 | 112.2 |
| 2007-01 | 110.7 |
| 2006-12 | 111.1 |
| 2006-11 | 112.8 |
| 2006-10 | 110.5 |
| 2006-09 | 110.4 |
| 2006-08 | 110.3 |
| 2006-07 | 110.2 |
| 2006-06 | 109.0 |
| 2006-05 | 110.3 |
| 2006-04 | 107.6 |
| 2006-03 | 107.3 |
| 2006-02 | 106.1 |
| 2006-01 | 108.8 |
| 2005-12 | 106.8 |
| 2005-11 | 106.4 |
| 2005-10 | 108.2 |
| 2005-09 | 106.7 |
| 2005-08 | 107.1 |
| 2005-07 | 107.4 |
| 2005-06 | 108.1 |
| 2005-05 | 106.0 |
| 2005-04 | 107.8 |
| 2005-03 | 108.1 |
| 2005-02 | 106.2 |
| 2005-01 | 106.3 |
graphiqueBusiness climate composite indicator
- Source: INSEE
The business managers are less optimistic about their activity prospects
In August 2023, the business managers in services are a bit less optimistic than in the previous month about their activity prospects: the balance of opinion on the expected activity has decreased again and has moved away from its long-term average. The one on the general business outlook for the sector has edged down a little and has got closer to its own. The balance related to the expected demand is stable for its part, just above its average. The one on the economic uncertainty felt is also stable.
The balance of opinion on the activity over the past three months has decreased sharply again and remains below its average.
The balance on the recent change in selling prices has decreased sharply but remains above its average. The one on their expected change is virtually stable since May and also remains above its own.
tableauExpected prices in services
| Expected prices | |
|---|---|
| 2023-08 | 7.0 |
| 2023-07 | 6.2 |
| 2023-06 | 6.7 |
| 2023-05 | 7.3 |
| 2023-04 | 11.9 |
| 2023-03 | 14.5 |
| 2023-02 | 16.1 |
| 2023-01 | 18.6 |
| 2022-12 | 15.8 |
| 2022-11 | 13.2 |
| 2022-10 | 12.2 |
| 2022-09 | 11.2 |
| 2022-08 | 10.7 |
| 2022-07 | 10.8 |
| 2022-06 | 11.4 |
| 2022-05 | 10.3 |
| 2022-04 | 10.3 |
| 2022-03 | 8.0 |
| 2022-02 | 8.2 |
| 2022-01 | 7.1 |
| 2021-12 | 5.2 |
| 2021-11 | 7.0 |
| 2021-10 | 4.5 |
| 2021-09 | 3.9 |
| 2021-08 | 4.3 |
| 2021-07 | 3.7 |
| 2021-06 | 1.0 |
| 2021-05 | -0.6 |
| 2021-04 | -9.7 |
| 2021-03 | -7.4 |
| 2021-02 | -11.5 |
| 2021-01 | -10.1 |
| 2020-12 | -8.2 |
| 2020-11 | -12.5 |
| 2020-10 | -8.9 |
| 2020-09 | -3.0 |
| 2020-08 | -5.3 |
| 2020-07 | -8.7 |
| 2020-06 | -12.3 |
| 2020-05 | -22.4 |
| 2020-04 | -23.9 |
| 2020-03 | -3.3 |
| 2020-02 | 0.4 |
| 2020-01 | 0.0 |
| 2019-12 | 0.2 |
| 2019-11 | -0.1 |
| 2019-10 | 1.7 |
| 2019-09 | -0.6 |
| 2019-08 | -1.1 |
| 2019-07 | 0.0 |
| 2019-06 | 0.2 |
| 2019-05 | -1.6 |
| 2019-04 | -3.0 |
| 2019-03 | -1.0 |
| 2019-02 | -2.6 |
| 2019-01 | -2.3 |
| 2018-12 | 0.1 |
| 2018-11 | -2.5 |
| 2018-10 | -2.8 |
| 2018-09 | -1.5 |
| 2018-08 | -0.6 |
| 2018-07 | -6.8 |
| 2018-06 | -4.9 |
| 2018-05 | -1.8 |
| 2018-04 | -3.2 |
| 2018-03 | -3.4 |
| 2018-02 | -3.7 |
| 2018-01 | -2.4 |
| 2017-12 | -3.4 |
| 2017-11 | -2.7 |
| 2017-10 | -2.4 |
| 2017-09 | -1.7 |
| 2017-08 | -5.6 |
| 2017-07 | -7.0 |
| 2017-06 | -4.5 |
| 2017-05 | -4.8 |
| 2017-04 | -5.4 |
| 2017-03 | -3.7 |
| 2017-02 | -3.7 |
| 2017-01 | -6.3 |
| 2016-12 | -5.5 |
| 2016-11 | -7.7 |
| 2016-10 | -6.8 |
| 2016-09 | -4.8 |
| 2016-08 | -5.2 |
| 2016-07 | -4.7 |
| 2016-06 | -6.8 |
| 2016-05 | -6.2 |
| 2016-04 | -4.9 |
| 2016-03 | -5.1 |
| 2016-02 | -4.6 |
| 2016-01 | -8.5 |
| 2015-12 | -8.9 |
| 2015-11 | -5.8 |
| 2015-10 | -5.9 |
| 2015-09 | -7.5 |
| 2015-08 | -6.4 |
| 2015-07 | -6.9 |
| 2015-06 | -6.1 |
| 2015-05 | -6.2 |
| 2015-04 | -7.8 |
| 2015-03 | -9.8 |
| 2015-02 | -9.7 |
| 2015-01 | -11.4 |
| 2014-12 | -11.0 |
| 2014-11 | -10.3 |
| 2014-10 | -9.5 |
| 2014-09 | -10.6 |
| 2014-08 | -9.0 |
| 2014-07 | -9.2 |
| 2014-06 | -9.3 |
| 2014-05 | -9.9 |
| 2014-04 | -9.6 |
| 2014-03 | -10.8 |
| 2014-02 | -11.0 |
| 2014-01 | -8.4 |
| 2013-12 | -9.4 |
| 2013-11 | -8.5 |
| 2013-10 | -10.1 |
| 2013-09 | -10.4 |
| 2013-08 | -10.7 |
| 2013-07 | -12.3 |
| 2013-06 | -12.0 |
| 2013-05 | -12.3 |
| 2013-04 | -12.3 |
| 2013-03 | -12.0 |
| 2013-02 | -11.9 |
| 2013-01 | -9.8 |
| 2012-12 | -9.2 |
| 2012-11 | -9.6 |
| 2012-10 | -11.0 |
| 2012-09 | -7.6 |
| 2012-08 | -7.8 |
| 2012-07 | -4.3 |
| 2012-06 | -6.0 |
| 2012-05 | -5.6 |
| 2012-04 | -4.2 |
| 2012-03 | -0.7 |
| 2012-02 | -3.4 |
| 2012-01 | 0.5 |
| 2011-12 | -2.3 |
| 2011-11 | -4.3 |
| 2011-10 | -3.0 |
| 2011-09 | -1.6 |
| 2011-08 | -1.5 |
| 2011-07 | -0.3 |
| 2011-06 | 0.5 |
| 2011-05 | 5.1 |
| 2011-04 | 2.4 |
| 2011-03 | 3.5 |
| 2011-02 | 3.3 |
| 2011-01 | -0.1 |
| 2010-12 | 0.0 |
| 2010-11 | -1.1 |
| 2010-10 | -0.9 |
| 2010-09 | -3.1 |
| 2010-08 | -3.8 |
| 2010-07 | -7.7 |
| 2010-06 | -5.4 |
| 2010-05 | -5.7 |
| 2010-04 | -7.8 |
| 2010-03 | -7.5 |
| 2010-02 | -9.0 |
| 2010-01 | -8.5 |
| 2009-12 | -10.1 |
| 2009-11 | -10.1 |
| 2009-10 | -9.4 |
| 2009-09 | -12.4 |
| 2009-08 | -14.4 |
| 2009-07 | -18.5 |
| 2009-06 | -15.4 |
| 2009-05 | -17.8 |
| 2009-04 | -17.7 |
| 2009-03 | -17.1 |
| 2009-02 | -13.1 |
| 2009-01 | -13.1 |
| 2008-12 | -13.8 |
| 2008-11 | -9.6 |
| 2008-10 | -2.7 |
| 2008-09 | 0.3 |
| 2008-08 | 1.5 |
| 2008-07 | 3.4 |
| 2008-06 | 3.2 |
| 2008-05 | 3.4 |
| 2008-04 | 3.9 |
| 2008-03 | 2.6 |
| 2008-02 | 2.1 |
| 2008-01 | 2.2 |
| 2007-12 | 3.0 |
| 2007-11 | 2.7 |
| 2007-10 | 1.3 |
| 2007-09 | 2.3 |
| 2007-08 | 3.2 |
| 2007-07 | 3.4 |
| 2007-06 | 2.1 |
| 2007-05 | 2.9 |
| 2007-04 | 2.2 |
| 2007-03 | 1.5 |
| 2007-02 | 1.1 |
| 2007-01 | 1.8 |
graphiqueExpected prices in services
- Source: INSEE
The balance of opinion on the change in the workforce size over the last three months is stable, below its average. The one on the expected workforce size over the next three months has fallen back sharply and has moved below its own. It has reached its lowest level since April 2021.
tableauEconomic outlook in the services sector
| Average* | May 2023 | June 2023 | July 2023 | Aug. 2023 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Composite indicator | 100 | 101 | 102 | 102 | 100 |
| General outlook | -7 | -5 | -7 | -5 | -6 |
| Past activity | 2 | 4 | 4 | 1 | -4 |
| Expected activity | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -1 |
| Expected demand | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Past selling prices | -3 | 14 | 13 | 12 | 8 |
| Expected selling prices | -2 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 7 |
| Past employment | 2 | -3 | 0 | -3 | -3 |
| Past employment except temporary work agencies | 0 | -1 | 1 | 0 | -3 |
| Expected employment | 2 | 4 | 5 | 6 | -1 |
| Expected employment except temporary work agencies | 0 | 6 | 3 | 2 | -4 |
| Economic uncertainty felt** | 12 | 15 | 9 | 11 | 11 |
- * Average since 1989 for the composite indicator and since 1988 for the balances of opinion, except general outlook (June 2000) and uncertainty (April 2021)
- ** Balance of opinion not seasonally adjusted
- Source: INSEE, monthly business survey in services.
The business climate has deteriorated strongly in real estate activities
In August 2023, in real estate activities, the business climate has deteriorated strongly and has reached its lowest level since November 2020. In particular, the balances of opinion on the expected activity, the general business outlook and the expected demand have declined sharply and have moved away from their average.
In information-communication, the business climate has deteriorated sharply and has returned to its long-term average. The balances of opinion on the workforce size, past and expected, have decreased very sharply and have moved below their average.
In accommodation and food services, the business climate indicator has fallen back but remains above its average level. In particular, the balance of opinion on the general business outlook has declined sharply.
In professional, scientific and technical activities, the business climate indicator has also decreased and stands just above its average. The balance of opinion on the expected demand has fallen back sharply.
In road freight transport, the business climate has deteriorated slightly, remaining well below its average. The balances of opinion on the past activity and on the workforce size, past as well as expected, have decreased.
Finally, in administrative and support services, the business climate has improved slightly and remains above its average. In particular, the balance of opinion on the expected demand has increased.
tableauBusiness climate composite indicator and balances of opinion by sub-sector in services
| Aggregated classification (NA 2008) at level A21 | Average* | May 2023 | June 2023 | July 2023 | Aug. 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Road transport (8%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 94 | 94 | 94 | 93 |
| General outlook | -18 | -27 | -22 | -28 | -28 |
| Past activity | -5 | -13 | -23 | -20 | -31 |
| Expected activity | -7 | -18 | -21 | -19 | -18 |
| Expected demand | -9 | -29 | -21 | -27 | -27 |
| Past employment | -5 | -9 | -4 | -6 | -2 |
| Expected employment | -6 | -1 | -8 | 1 | -4 |
| Accommodation and food service activities (8%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 105 | 105 | 106 | 104 |
| General outlook | -13 | 5 | 1 | 12 | -3 |
| Past activity | -7 | -28 | -20 | -12 | -14 |
| Expected activity | -7 | -10 | -2 | -14 | -19 |
| Expected demand | -9 | -9 | -14 | -2 | 4 |
| Past employment | -5 | -18 | -1 | -12 | 1 |
| Expected employment | -6 | 6 | 14 | -7 | -9 |
| Information and communication (29%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 107 | 108 | 105 | 100 |
| General outlook | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
| Past activity | 8 | 22 | 27 | 17 | 5 |
| Expected activity | 9 | 18 | 24 | 17 | 9 |
| Expected demand | 9 | 20 | 20 | 21 | 18 |
| Past employment | 6 | 14 | 14 | 14 | -2 |
| Expected employment | 10 | 19 | 15 | 11 | -5 |
| Real estate activities (10%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 96 | 90 | 91 | 83 |
| General outlook | -4 | -8 | -12 | -12 | -17 |
| Past activity | 7 | 3 | -8 | -4 | -7 |
| Expected activity | 6 | -4 | -3 | 0 | -9 |
| Expected demand | 1 | -4 | -2 | -5 | -10 |
| Past employment | 3 | 2 | 0 | -4 | -10 |
| Expected employment | 3 | 5 | -1 | -9 | -6 |
| Professional, scientific and technical activities (25%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 100 | 102 | 104 | 101 |
| General outlook | -8 | -8 | -9 | -3 | -4 |
| Past activity | -1 | 0 | -1 | -2 | 0 |
| Expected activity | -2 | -6 | 0 | -2 | -4 |
| Expected demand | -5 | -7 | -6 | -2 | -8 |
| Past employment | 1 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| Expected employment | 1 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 4 |
| Administrative and support service activities (18%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 102 | 100 | 102 | 103 |
| General outlook | -3 | 3 | -2 | 1 | 2 |
| Past activity | 5 | 7 | 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Expected activity | 5 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 7 |
| Expected demand | 3 | 3 | -1 | 1 | 9 |
| Past employment | 8 | -15 | -5 | 3 | -3 |
| Expected employment | 7 | 0 | 2 | 13 | -2 |
- The figures in parentheses indicate the weights used to aggregate the sub-sector balances of opinion. The “other services” sub-sector is not displayed due to its low weight.
- *Composite indicator: average since 1989 (2006 for road transport); balances of opinion: average since 1988, except general outlook since June 2000 (2006 for road transport)
- Source: INSEE, monthly business survey in services.
Revision
The business climate indicator in services of July 2023 has not been revised (after rounding).
For further information
The composite indicators of business climate presented here are estimated independently of one another. Thus, that of the whole services cannot be deduced from the others. The same balances of opinion are included into their calculations, but they are not assigned the same weightings. Also, the indicators are scaled to have a long-run average of 100 and a standard deviation of 10. The climate series do not have the same historical beginning, so their standardisation differs slightly. Discrepancies may therefore appear from time to time.
For the three-modality questions, a balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the weighted percentage of “increase” responses and the weighted percentage of “decrease” responses.
The responses to this survey were collected between 26 July and 21 August 2023.
Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of the web page of this publication.
Next issue: 21 September 2023 at 8:45 am.
Documentation
Changes to business tendency surveys – October 2021 (pdf,181 Ko)
Abbreviated methodology (in French) (pdf,193 Ko)
Pour en savoir plus
The composite indicators of business climate presented here are estimated independently of one another. Thus, that of the whole services cannot be deduced from the others. The same balances of opinion are included into their calculations, but they are not assigned the same weightings. Also, the indicators are scaled to have a long-run average of 100 and a standard deviation of 10. The climate series do not have the same historical beginning, so their standardisation differs slightly. Discrepancies may therefore appear from time to time.
For the three-modality questions, a balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the weighted percentage of “increase” responses and the weighted percentage of “decrease” responses.
The responses to this survey were collected between 26 July and 21 August 2023.
Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of the web page of this publication.
Next issue: 21 September 2023 at 8:45 am.