Informations Rapides ·
20 July 2023 · n° 184
In July 2023, the business climate has deteriorated again in wholesale trade Bimonthly survey of wholesaling - July 2023
According to the business managers surveyed in July 2023, the bimonthly business climate in wholesale trade has deteriorated again. The composite indicator has lost two points compared to May 2023 and stands at 92. It has thus moved further away from its long-term average (100). The balances of opinion concerning ordering intentions and the volume of merchandise received from abroad have declined compared to May.
The seasonal coefficients as well as the parameters of the summary indicators have been updated in July 2023. As a consequence, some of the results previously published have been revised under this survey. Those revisions are for the most part quite minor and have no impact on the analysis of the business situation.
- The opinion of wholesalers on ordering intentions has deteriorated again
- The balances of opinion on selling prices have retreated sharply
- Wholesalers are a little less optimistic concerning the expected evolution of their workforce size
- Wholesalers consider that their stock levels have come back close to normal
- Revisions
- Further information
According to the business managers surveyed in July 2023, the bimonthly business climate in wholesale trade has deteriorated again. The composite indicator has lost two points compared to May 2023 and stands at 92. It has thus moved further away from its long-term average (100). The balances of opinion concerning ordering intentions and the volume of merchandise received from abroad have declined compared to May.
tableauComposite indicator
| Composite indicator | |
|---|---|
| 2023-B4 | 91.7 |
| 2023-B3 | 93.6 |
| 2023-B2 | 97.9 |
| 2023-B1 | 97.0 |
| 2022-B6 | 99.9 |
| 2022-B5 | 95.5 |
| 2022-B4 | 100.3 |
| 2022-B3 | 100.4 |
| 2022-B2 | 104.4 |
| 2022-B1 | 115.8 |
| 2021-B6 | 114.4 |
| 2021-B5 | 109.8 |
| 2021-B4 | 112.2 |
| 2021-B3 | 110.2 |
| 2021-B2 | 99.1 |
| 2021-B1 | 96.2 |
| 2020-B6 | 86.8 |
| 2020-B5 | 90.7 |
| 2020-B4 | 78.1 |
| 2020-B3 | 66.5 |
| 2020-B2 | 96.9 |
| 2020-B1 | 104.9 |
| 2019-B6 | 105.9 |
| 2019-B5 | 105.9 |
| 2019-B4 | 105.0 |
| 2019-B3 | 107.3 |
| 2019-B2 | 105.6 |
| 2019-B1 | 100.7 |
| 2018-B6 | 103.3 |
| 2018-B5 | 103.4 |
| 2018-B4 | 101.3 |
| 2018-B3 | 104.7 |
| 2018-B2 | 109.6 |
| 2018-B1 | 108.4 |
| 2017-B6 | 110.5 |
| 2017-B5 | 108.3 |
| 2017-B4 | 108.6 |
| 2017-B3 | 104.5 |
| 2017-B2 | 102.8 |
| 2017-B1 | 104.9 |
| 2016-B6 | 97.9 |
| 2016-B5 | 97.3 |
| 2016-B4 | 102.9 |
| 2016-B3 | 101.7 |
| 2016-B2 | 99.4 |
| 2016-B1 | 102.4 |
| 2015-B6 | 101.5 |
| 2015-B5 | 99.3 |
| 2015-B4 | 101.8 |
| 2015-B3 | 100.8 |
| 2015-B2 | 96.2 |
| 2015-B1 | 95.6 |
| 2014-B6 | 95.2 |
| 2014-B5 | 90.7 |
| 2014-B4 | 96.0 |
| 2014-B3 | 97.7 |
| 2014-B2 | 97.8 |
| 2014-B1 | 97.0 |
| 2013-B6 | 97.7 |
| 2013-B5 | 96.9 |
| 2013-B4 | 87.4 |
| 2013-B3 | 87.6 |
| 2013-B2 | 88.2 |
| 2013-B1 | 88.8 |
| 2012-B6 | 89.0 |
| 2012-B5 | 90.8 |
| 2012-B4 | 94.7 |
| 2012-B3 | 92.7 |
| 2012-B2 | 99.3 |
| 2012-B1 | 95.3 |
| 2011-B6 | 95.9 |
| 2011-B5 | 100.0 |
| 2011-B4 | 105.8 |
| 2011-B3 | 107.2 |
| 2011-B2 | 108.1 |
| 2011-B1 | 106.0 |
| 2010-B6 | 104.4 |
| 2010-B5 | 105.0 |
| 2010-B4 | 100.3 |
| 2010-B3 | 94.5 |
| 2010-B2 | 85.0 |
| 2010-B1 | 85.1 |
| 2009-B6 | 77.9 |
| 2009-B5 | 76.4 |
| 2009-B4 | 70.9 |
| 2009-B3 | 68.7 |
| 2009-B2 | 67.2 |
| 2009-B1 | 79.1 |
| 2008-B6 | 83.9 |
| 2008-B5 | 94.2 |
| 2008-B4 | 96.6 |
| 2008-B3 | 101.4 |
| 2008-B2 | 106.6 |
| 2008-B1 | 107.3 |
| 2007-B6 | 108.8 |
| 2007-B5 | 111.4 |
| 2007-B4 | 107.5 |
| 2007-B3 | 110.4 |
| 2007-B2 | 111.5 |
| 2007-B1 | 108.0 |
| 2006-B6 | 110.0 |
| 2006-B5 | 106.8 |
| 2006-B4 | 107.3 |
| 2006-B3 | 101.9 |
| 2006-B2 | 99.2 |
| 2006-B1 | 103.6 |
| 2005-B6 | 99.4 |
| 2005-B5 | 94.7 |
| 2005-B4 | 96.0 |
| 2005-B3 | 92.4 |
| 2005-B2 | 97.4 |
| 2005-B1 | 100.6 |
graphiqueComposite indicator
- Source: INSEE - business tendency survey in wholesale trade.
The opinion of wholesalers on ordering intentions has deteriorated again
In July 2023, the balance of opinion of wholesalers regarding ordering intentions has diminished again, continuing its decline started in January. It has thus reached its lowest level since 2020. It has decreased strongly in the wholesale trade of raw agricultural products and live animals, in the wholesale trade of information and communication equipment as well as in the “other specialised wholesale trade”. The balance related to the received merchandise from abroad has diminished again too and has moved away from its long-term average.
The balance of opinion of wholesalers on the volume of their past sales is stable, below its average. The balance on the volume of past sales abroad has diminished for its part again, especially this month in the wholesale trade of household goods and in the one of the “other industrial capital goods”.
The balance on the general business outlook remains stable, below its long-term average.
tableauEconomic outlook in the wholesale trade sector
| Ave. (1) | Jan. 23 | Mar. 23 | May 23 | July 23 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business climate | 100 | 97 | 98 | 94 | 92 |
| General business outlook | -23 | -38 | -28 | -28 | -28 |
| Sales | -14 | -13 | -17 | -23 | -23 |
| export sales | -15 | -17 | -18 | -24 | -26 |
| Received merchandise | -9 | -11 | -15 | -16 | -17 |
| received from abroad | -10 | -19 | -14 | -19 | -21 |
| Ordering intentions | -15 | -15 | -15 | -18 | -22 |
| ordering from abroad | -15 | -19 | -15 | -24 | -25 |
| Shipments abroad | -15 | -20 | -16 | -22 | -21 |
| Stocks | 8 | 16 | 16 | 15 | 10 |
| Past workforce | -1 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
| Expected workforce | -2 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 3 |
| Cash position | -9 | -8 | -8 | -11 | -9 |
| Past selling prices | 8 | 36 | 30 | 14 | -3 |
| Expected selling prices | 15 | 38 | 28 | 7 | 3 |
- (1) Average since July 1979.
- Source : INSEE - business tendency survey in wholesale trade
The balances of opinion on selling prices have retreated sharply
The balances of opinion on the past and expected changes in the selling prices of wholesalers have declined sharply. The first one has fallen below its long-term average while the second one has moved away from its own.
tableauExpected prices in wholesale trade
| Expected prices | |
|---|---|
| 2023-B4 | 2.5 |
| 2023-B3 | 6.7 |
| 2023-B2 | 27.6 |
| 2023-B1 | 38.0 |
| 2022-B6 | 40.6 |
| 2022-B5 | 41.0 |
| 2022-B4 | 42.7 |
| 2022-B3 | 48.5 |
| 2022-B2 | 47.4 |
| 2022-B1 | 37.0 |
| 2021-B6 | 39.7 |
| 2021-B5 | 33.6 |
| 2021-B4 | 32.2 |
| 2021-B3 | 26.2 |
| 2021-B2 | 18.6 |
| 2021-B1 | 10.5 |
| 2020-B6 | -3.5 |
| 2020-B5 | 4.7 |
| 2020-B4 | 1.3 |
| 2020-B3 | -4.2 |
| 2020-B2 | -1.4 |
| 2020-B1 | 7.9 |
| 2019-B6 | 6.9 |
| 2019-B5 | 3.2 |
| 2019-B4 | 3.2 |
| 2019-B3 | 2.7 |
| 2019-B2 | 4.7 |
| 2019-B1 | 7.7 |
| 2018-B6 | 8.2 |
| 2018-B5 | 12.4 |
| 2018-B4 | 9.0 |
| 2018-B3 | 6.4 |
| 2018-B2 | 13.0 |
| 2018-B1 | 8.3 |
| 2017-B6 | 10.2 |
| 2017-B5 | 3.8 |
| 2017-B4 | 5.3 |
| 2017-B3 | 4.1 |
| 2017-B2 | 5.1 |
| 2017-B1 | 9.2 |
| 2016-B6 | 2.4 |
| 2016-B5 | -2.8 |
| 2016-B4 | 0.1 |
| 2016-B3 | -0.9 |
| 2016-B2 | -3.4 |
| 2016-B1 | -5.7 |
| 2015-B6 | -1.4 |
| 2015-B5 | -8.2 |
| 2015-B4 | 2.9 |
| 2015-B3 | 5.1 |
| 2015-B2 | -0.5 |
| 2015-B1 | -6.7 |
| 2014-B6 | -10.7 |
| 2014-B5 | -8.7 |
| 2014-B4 | -4.2 |
| 2014-B3 | -0.8 |
| 2014-B2 | 2.1 |
| 2014-B1 | 6.0 |
| 2013-B6 | 0.5 |
| 2013-B5 | 0.3 |
| 2013-B4 | -3.9 |
| 2013-B3 | -3.2 |
| 2013-B2 | -2.2 |
| 2013-B1 | 5.1 |
| 2012-B6 | 5.5 |
| 2012-B5 | 11.3 |
| 2012-B4 | 8.9 |
| 2012-B3 | 6.0 |
| 2012-B2 | 11.7 |
| 2012-B1 | 11.0 |
| 2011-B6 | 14.2 |
| 2011-B5 | 6.2 |
| 2011-B4 | 11.9 |
| 2011-B3 | 19.8 |
| 2011-B2 | 24.6 |
| 2011-B1 | 22.9 |
| 2010-B6 | 8.7 |
| 2010-B5 | 11.5 |
| 2010-B4 | 8.6 |
| 2010-B3 | 5.1 |
| 2010-B2 | 0.2 |
| 2010-B1 | -3.9 |
| 2009-B6 | -7.2 |
| 2009-B5 | -6.8 |
| 2009-B4 | -11.9 |
| 2009-B3 | -7.5 |
| 2009-B2 | -12.5 |
| 2009-B1 | -5.5 |
| 2008-B6 | 0.4 |
| 2008-B5 | 10.3 |
| 2008-B4 | 18.8 |
| 2008-B3 | 15.3 |
| 2008-B2 | 18.6 |
| 2008-B1 | 26.9 |
| 2007-B6 | 23.9 |
| 2007-B5 | 20.9 |
| 2007-B4 | 16.2 |
| 2007-B3 | 14.1 |
| 2007-B2 | 10.1 |
| 2007-B1 | 10.2 |
graphiqueExpected prices in wholesale trade
- Source: INSEE - business tendency survey in wholesale trade.
Wholesalers are a little less optimistic concerning the expected evolution of their workforce size
The balances of opinion on the past and expected changes in workforce size have retreated again but remain above their respective average level.
Wholesalers consider that their stock levels have come back close to normal
The balance of opinion on the level of inventories has decreased after having reached in March 2023 its highest level since 1989. It has diminished in particular in the wholesale trade of information and communication equipment and in the “other specialised wholesale trade”.
Finally, the balance related to the cash position has rebounded and has returned to its long-term average.
tableauBalances of opinion by sub-sector in wholesale trade
| Ave. (1) | Jan. 23 | Mar. 23 | May 23 | July 23 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw agricultural products and live animals | |||||
| Sales | -13 | -19 | -19 | -26 | -22 |
| Export sales | -16 | -16 | -23 | -45 | -39 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | -10 | -36 | -25 | -45 | -32 |
| Ordering intentions | -13 | -19 | -22 | -20 | -27 |
| Current stocks | 5 | 10 | 3 | -4 | 0 |
| Food products and beverages | |||||
| Sales | -15 | -22 | -16 | -22 | -16 |
| Export sales | -13 | -35 | -25 | -28 | -24 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | -13 | -27 | -4 | -10 | -14 |
| Ordering intentions | -11 | -18 | -14 | -14 | -12 |
| Current stocks | 4 | 6 | 11 | 18 | 12 |
| Household goods | |||||
| Sales | -10 | -1 | -8 | -8 | -13 |
| Export sales | -11 | -4 | -18 | -14 | -18 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | -6 | -14 | -21 | -5 | -13 |
| Ordering intentions | -13 | -8 | -11 | -12 | -11 |
| Current stocks | 12 | 22 | 19 | 13 | 17 |
| Information and communication equipment | |||||
| Sales | -8 | -29 | -28 | -28 | -41 |
| Export sales | -12 | -24 | -26 | -40 | -39 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | -7 | -25 | -37 | -48 | -56 |
| Ordering intentions | -10 | -19 | -24 | -25 | -35 |
| Current stocks | 8 | 37 | 24 | 7 | -2 |
| Other industrial capital goods | |||||
| Sales | -16 | -3 | -12 | -19 | -25 |
| Export sales | -21 | -15 | -10 | -22 | -27 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | -11 | -9 | -6 | -4 | -14 |
| Ordering intentions | -21 | -23 | -11 | -21 | -25 |
| Current stocks | 12 | 20 | 24 | 29 | 26 |
| Other specialised wholesale trade | |||||
| Sales | -17 | -14 | -21 | -33 | -32 |
| Export sales | -18 | -12 | -10 | -17 | -22 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | -13 | -10 | -3 | -24 | -19 |
| Ordering intentions | -18 | -11 | -13 | -18 | -31 |
| Current stocks | 6 | 14 | 16 | 18 | 2 |
- (1) Average since July 1979.
- Source : INSEE – business tendency survey in wholesale trade
Revisions
The business climate in wholesale trade in May 2023 has not been revised (after rounding).
Further information
A balance of opinion is the difference between the weighted percentage of “above normal” or “increase” answers and the weighted percentage of “below normal” or “decrease” answers.
Answers to this survey have been gathered between 26 June and 18 July 2023.
Additional information (methodology, links, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of the web page of this publication.
Next issue: 21 September 2023 at 8:45 am.
Pour en savoir plus
Time series : Wholesale trade