Informations Rapides ·
22 February 2023 · n° 47
In February 2023, the business climate has improved a bit again in services Monthly survey of services - February 2023
According to the business managers surveyed in February 2023, the business climate has improved a bit in services, for the second month in a row. At 106, the business climate indicator that synthesizes it has gained one point and remains above its long-term average (100). The balances of opinion on the business outlook, both general and personal, have taken the main part in this increase. At the same time, the balance of the recent change in selling prices has reached its highest level since the beginning of the series.
According to the business managers surveyed in February 2023, the business climate has improved a bit in services, for the second month in a row. At 106, the business climate indicator that synthesizes it has gained one point and remains above its long-term average (100). The balances of opinion on the business outlook, both general and personal, have taken the main part in this increase. At the same time, the balance of the recent change in selling prices has reached its highest level since the beginning of the series.
tableauBusiness climate composite indicator
| Business climate composite indicator | |
|---|---|
| 2023-02 | 106.1 |
| 2023-01 | 104.9 |
| 2022-12 | 103.9 |
| 2022-11 | 104.3 |
| 2022-10 | 105.4 |
| 2022-09 | 105.5 |
| 2022-08 | 106.5 |
| 2022-07 | 106.5 |
| 2022-06 | 107.6 |
| 2022-05 | 108.9 |
| 2022-04 | 108.1 |
| 2022-03 | 108.4 |
| 2022-02 | 111.8 |
| 2022-01 | 105.2 |
| 2021-12 | 107.0 |
| 2021-11 | 113.7 |
| 2021-10 | 112.6 |
| 2021-09 | 109.7 |
| 2021-08 | 108.2 |
| 2021-07 | 110.6 |
| 2021-06 | 111.6 |
| 2021-05 | 106.1 |
| 2021-04 | 91.1 |
| 2021-03 | 93.4 |
| 2021-02 | 88.0 |
| 2021-01 | 91.0 |
| 2020-12 | 89.5 |
| 2020-11 | 77.3 |
| 2020-10 | 88.2 |
| 2020-09 | 93.9 |
| 2020-08 | 93.2 |
| 2020-07 | 88.4 |
| 2020-06 | 77.4 |
| 2020-05 | 50.7 |
| 2020-04 | 40.4 |
| 2020-03 | 92.4 |
| 2020-02 | 105.7 |
| 2020-01 | 105.9 |
| 2019-12 | 106.2 |
| 2019-11 | 106.0 |
| 2019-10 | 105.5 |
| 2019-09 | 105.4 |
| 2019-08 | 104.8 |
| 2019-07 | 104.8 |
| 2019-06 | 105.5 |
| 2019-05 | 105.2 |
| 2019-04 | 105.3 |
| 2019-03 | 104.5 |
| 2019-02 | 103.4 |
| 2019-01 | 103.4 |
| 2018-12 | 101.8 |
| 2018-11 | 103.5 |
| 2018-10 | 103.0 |
| 2018-09 | 104.2 |
| 2018-08 | 103.8 |
| 2018-07 | 104.2 |
| 2018-06 | 104.3 |
| 2018-05 | 103.9 |
| 2018-04 | 105.6 |
| 2018-03 | 106.5 |
| 2018-02 | 106.4 |
| 2018-01 | 107.4 |
| 2017-12 | 108.3 |
| 2017-11 | 107.1 |
| 2017-10 | 106.5 |
| 2017-09 | 106.3 |
| 2017-08 | 105.8 |
| 2017-07 | 103.7 |
| 2017-06 | 103.2 |
| 2017-05 | 102.4 |
| 2017-04 | 103.0 |
| 2017-03 | 103.0 |
| 2017-02 | 102.6 |
| 2017-01 | 101.5 |
| 2016-12 | 103.3 |
| 2016-11 | 100.7 |
| 2016-10 | 100.6 |
| 2016-09 | 100.6 |
| 2016-08 | 100.0 |
| 2016-07 | 100.3 |
| 2016-06 | 99.0 |
| 2016-05 | 100.6 |
| 2016-04 | 98.3 |
| 2016-03 | 99.4 |
| 2016-02 | 99.8 |
| 2016-01 | 99.9 |
| 2015-12 | 97.0 |
| 2015-11 | 99.2 |
| 2015-10 | 99.4 |
| 2015-09 | 97.5 |
| 2015-08 | 98.5 |
| 2015-07 | 97.5 |
| 2015-06 | 96.8 |
| 2015-05 | 95.4 |
| 2015-04 | 94.0 |
| 2015-03 | 92.4 |
| 2015-02 | 91.6 |
| 2015-01 | 91.3 |
| 2014-12 | 91.4 |
| 2014-11 | 91.4 |
| 2014-10 | 91.4 |
| 2014-09 | 91.1 |
| 2014-08 | 91.7 |
| 2014-07 | 92.7 |
| 2014-06 | 92.4 |
| 2014-05 | 92.3 |
| 2014-04 | 93.4 |
| 2014-03 | 93.1 |
| 2014-02 | 92.2 |
| 2014-01 | 92.4 |
| 2013-12 | 91.0 |
| 2013-11 | 92.5 |
| 2013-10 | 91.8 |
| 2013-09 | 92.3 |
| 2013-08 | 88.8 |
| 2013-07 | 86.8 |
| 2013-06 | 86.3 |
| 2013-05 | 85.1 |
| 2013-04 | 83.7 |
| 2013-03 | 84.5 |
| 2013-02 | 87.4 |
| 2013-01 | 88.5 |
| 2012-12 | 87.5 |
| 2012-11 | 85.9 |
| 2012-10 | 86.5 |
| 2012-09 | 87.7 |
| 2012-08 | 87.9 |
| 2012-07 | 89.9 |
| 2012-06 | 90.3 |
| 2012-05 | 92.3 |
| 2012-04 | 95.8 |
| 2012-03 | 93.8 |
| 2012-02 | 92.5 |
| 2012-01 | 93.1 |
| 2011-12 | 95.0 |
| 2011-11 | 95.4 |
| 2011-10 | 97.5 |
| 2011-09 | 98.5 |
| 2011-08 | 100.7 |
| 2011-07 | 105.0 |
| 2011-06 | 107.0 |
| 2011-05 | 107.5 |
| 2011-04 | 108.8 |
| 2011-03 | 110.2 |
| 2011-02 | 109.0 |
| 2011-01 | 106.9 |
| 2010-12 | 106.6 |
| 2010-11 | 104.6 |
| 2010-10 | 102.7 |
| 2010-09 | 101.5 |
| 2010-08 | 100.6 |
| 2010-07 | 99.0 |
| 2010-06 | 98.3 |
| 2010-05 | 99.2 |
| 2010-04 | 97.6 |
| 2010-03 | 94.5 |
| 2010-02 | 94.2 |
| 2010-01 | 94.0 |
| 2009-12 | 92.6 |
| 2009-11 | 92.1 |
| 2009-10 | 90.8 |
| 2009-09 | 87.7 |
| 2009-08 | 84.5 |
| 2009-07 | 82.0 |
| 2009-06 | 78.3 |
| 2009-05 | 73.8 |
| 2009-04 | 69.8 |
| 2009-03 | 69.7 |
| 2009-02 | 74.7 |
| 2009-01 | 75.9 |
| 2008-12 | 78.4 |
| 2008-11 | 81.5 |
| 2008-10 | 85.4 |
| 2008-09 | 93.8 |
| 2008-08 | 95.7 |
| 2008-07 | 97.2 |
| 2008-06 | 101.4 |
| 2008-05 | 104.5 |
| 2008-04 | 106.9 |
| 2008-03 | 108.5 |
| 2008-02 | 108.4 |
| 2008-01 | 110.2 |
| 2007-12 | 108.9 |
| 2007-11 | 110.0 |
| 2007-10 | 109.8 |
| 2007-09 | 111.2 |
| 2007-08 | 111.9 |
| 2007-07 | 112.8 |
| 2007-06 | 112.2 |
| 2007-05 | 112.5 |
| 2007-04 | 112.6 |
| 2007-03 | 113.0 |
| 2007-02 | 112.0 |
| 2007-01 | 110.6 |
| 2006-12 | 111.2 |
| 2006-11 | 112.7 |
| 2006-10 | 110.6 |
| 2006-09 | 110.4 |
| 2006-08 | 110.2 |
| 2006-07 | 110.1 |
| 2006-06 | 108.9 |
| 2006-05 | 110.2 |
| 2006-04 | 107.7 |
| 2006-03 | 107.4 |
| 2006-02 | 106.1 |
| 2006-01 | 108.5 |
| 2005-12 | 106.6 |
| 2005-11 | 106.3 |
| 2005-10 | 108.3 |
| 2005-09 | 106.8 |
| 2005-08 | 107.2 |
| 2005-07 | 107.5 |
| 2005-06 | 108.2 |
| 2005-05 | 105.9 |
| 2005-04 | 107.8 |
| 2005-03 | 108.1 |
| 2005-02 | 106.1 |
| 2005-01 | 106.3 |
graphiqueBusiness climate composite indicator
- Source: INSEE
The business managers are more optimistic about their activity prospects
In February 2023, the business managers in services are more optimistic than in the previous month about their activity prospects: the balances of opinion on the general and personal business outlook have both increased and have moved away from their long-term averages. The balance of opinion on the expected demand has improved slightly and has returned just above its own. At the same time, the balance on economic uncertainty felt has decreased again.
The balance of opinion on activity over the past three months has improved slightly and remains well above its average.
The balance of opinion on the recent change in selling prices has increased again and has reached a level not seen since the beginning of the series (1988). The one about the expected change in selling prices has edged down but remains at a very high level.
tableauExpected prices in services
| Expected prices | |
|---|---|
| 2023-02 | 17.0 |
| 2023-01 | 19.8 |
| 2022-12 | 16.2 |
| 2022-11 | 12.9 |
| 2022-10 | 10.5 |
| 2022-09 | 8.8 |
| 2022-08 | 10.4 |
| 2022-07 | 12.4 |
| 2022-06 | 11.0 |
| 2022-05 | 10.5 |
| 2022-04 | 12.1 |
| 2022-03 | 7.3 |
| 2022-02 | 9.0 |
| 2022-01 | 8.0 |
| 2021-12 | 5.5 |
| 2021-11 | 6.6 |
| 2021-10 | 2.9 |
| 2021-09 | 1.8 |
| 2021-08 | 4.0 |
| 2021-07 | 5.2 |
| 2021-06 | 0.8 |
| 2021-05 | -0.6 |
| 2021-04 | -8.1 |
| 2021-03 | -8.0 |
| 2021-02 | -10.9 |
| 2021-01 | -9.4 |
| 2020-12 | -8.1 |
| 2020-11 | -12.7 |
| 2020-10 | -10.3 |
| 2020-09 | -4.8 |
| 2020-08 | -5.4 |
| 2020-07 | -7.0 |
| 2020-06 | -12.3 |
| 2020-05 | -22.6 |
| 2020-04 | -22.6 |
| 2020-03 | -3.7 |
| 2020-02 | 0.7 |
| 2020-01 | 0.3 |
| 2019-12 | 0.1 |
| 2019-11 | -0.2 |
| 2019-10 | 0.7 |
| 2019-09 | -2.2 |
| 2019-08 | -0.9 |
| 2019-07 | 1.7 |
| 2019-06 | 0.4 |
| 2019-05 | -1.9 |
| 2019-04 | -2.1 |
| 2019-03 | -1.3 |
| 2019-02 | -2.5 |
| 2019-01 | -2.2 |
| 2018-12 | -0.2 |
| 2018-11 | -2.4 |
| 2018-10 | -3.6 |
| 2018-09 | -2.8 |
| 2018-08 | -0.3 |
| 2018-07 | -5.3 |
| 2018-06 | -4.6 |
| 2018-05 | -2.3 |
| 2018-04 | -2.7 |
| 2018-03 | -3.5 |
| 2018-02 | -3.9 |
| 2018-01 | -2.5 |
| 2017-12 | -3.7 |
| 2017-11 | -2.6 |
| 2017-10 | -2.8 |
| 2017-09 | -2.8 |
| 2017-08 | -5.2 |
| 2017-07 | -5.7 |
| 2017-06 | -4.0 |
| 2017-05 | -5.3 |
| 2017-04 | -5.1 |
| 2017-03 | -3.8 |
| 2017-02 | -3.9 |
| 2017-01 | -6.5 |
| 2016-12 | -5.5 |
| 2016-11 | -7.7 |
| 2016-10 | -6.8 |
| 2016-09 | -4.8 |
| 2016-08 | -5.2 |
| 2016-07 | -4.7 |
| 2016-06 | -6.8 |
| 2016-05 | -6.2 |
| 2016-04 | -4.9 |
| 2016-03 | -5.1 |
| 2016-02 | -4.6 |
| 2016-01 | -8.5 |
| 2015-12 | -8.8 |
| 2015-11 | -5.8 |
| 2015-10 | -5.9 |
| 2015-09 | -7.5 |
| 2015-08 | -6.4 |
| 2015-07 | -6.9 |
| 2015-06 | -6.1 |
| 2015-05 | -6.2 |
| 2015-04 | -7.8 |
| 2015-03 | -9.8 |
| 2015-02 | -9.7 |
| 2015-01 | -11.4 |
| 2014-12 | -11.0 |
| 2014-11 | -10.3 |
| 2014-10 | -9.5 |
| 2014-09 | -10.6 |
| 2014-08 | -9.0 |
| 2014-07 | -9.2 |
| 2014-06 | -9.3 |
| 2014-05 | -9.9 |
| 2014-04 | -9.6 |
| 2014-03 | -10.8 |
| 2014-02 | -11.0 |
| 2014-01 | -8.4 |
| 2013-12 | -9.4 |
| 2013-11 | -8.4 |
| 2013-10 | -10.1 |
| 2013-09 | -10.4 |
| 2013-08 | -10.7 |
| 2013-07 | -12.3 |
| 2013-06 | -12.0 |
| 2013-05 | -12.2 |
| 2013-04 | -12.2 |
| 2013-03 | -12.0 |
| 2013-02 | -11.9 |
| 2013-01 | -9.8 |
| 2012-12 | -9.2 |
| 2012-11 | -9.5 |
| 2012-10 | -11.0 |
| 2012-09 | -7.6 |
| 2012-08 | -7.8 |
| 2012-07 | -4.3 |
| 2012-06 | -6.0 |
| 2012-05 | -5.6 |
| 2012-04 | -4.2 |
| 2012-03 | -0.7 |
| 2012-02 | -3.4 |
| 2012-01 | 0.5 |
| 2011-12 | -2.3 |
| 2011-11 | -4.3 |
| 2011-10 | -3.0 |
| 2011-09 | -1.6 |
| 2011-08 | -1.5 |
| 2011-07 | -0.3 |
| 2011-06 | 0.5 |
| 2011-05 | 5.1 |
| 2011-04 | 2.4 |
| 2011-03 | 3.5 |
| 2011-02 | 3.3 |
| 2011-01 | -0.1 |
| 2010-12 | 0.0 |
| 2010-11 | -1.1 |
| 2010-10 | -0.9 |
| 2010-09 | -3.1 |
| 2010-08 | -3.8 |
| 2010-07 | -7.7 |
| 2010-06 | -5.4 |
| 2010-05 | -5.7 |
| 2010-04 | -7.8 |
| 2010-03 | -7.5 |
| 2010-02 | -9.0 |
| 2010-01 | -8.5 |
| 2009-12 | -10.1 |
| 2009-11 | -10.1 |
| 2009-10 | -9.4 |
| 2009-09 | -12.4 |
| 2009-08 | -14.4 |
| 2009-07 | -18.5 |
| 2009-06 | -15.4 |
| 2009-05 | -17.8 |
| 2009-04 | -17.7 |
| 2009-03 | -17.1 |
| 2009-02 | -13.1 |
| 2009-01 | -13.1 |
| 2008-12 | -13.8 |
| 2008-11 | -9.6 |
| 2008-10 | -2.7 |
| 2008-09 | 0.3 |
| 2008-08 | 1.5 |
| 2008-07 | 3.4 |
| 2008-06 | 3.3 |
| 2008-05 | 3.4 |
| 2008-04 | 3.9 |
| 2008-03 | 2.6 |
| 2008-02 | 2.1 |
| 2008-01 | 2.2 |
| 2007-12 | 3.0 |
| 2007-11 | 2.8 |
| 2007-10 | 1.3 |
| 2007-09 | 2.3 |
| 2007-08 | 3.2 |
| 2007-07 | 3.4 |
| 2007-06 | 2.1 |
| 2007-05 | 2.9 |
| 2007-04 | 2.2 |
| 2007-03 | 1.5 |
| 2007-02 | 1.1 |
| 2007-01 | 1.8 |
graphiqueExpected prices in services
- Source: INSEE
Concerning employment, the balance of opinion on the change in the workforce size over the last three months is stable, above its average. The one on the expected workforce size has edged down but remains well above its own.
tableauEconomic outlook in the services sector
| Average* | Nov. 2022 | Dec. 2022 | Jan. 2023 | Feb. 2023 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Composite indicator | 100 | 104 | 104 | 105 | 106 |
| General outlook | -7 | -3 | -3 | -5 | -3 |
| Past activity | 2 | 6 | 7 | 10 | 11 |
| Expected activity | 2 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 7 |
| Expected demand | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 1 |
| Past selling prices | -3 | 13 | 13 | 15 | 17 |
| Expected selling prices | -2 | 13 | 16 | 20 | 17 |
| Past employment | 2 | 2 | 10 | 6 | 6 |
| Past employment except temporary work agencies | 0 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 6 |
| Expected employment | 2 | 9 | 9 | 13 | 11 |
| Expected employment except temporary work agencies | 0 | 5 | 5 | 8 | 6 |
| Economic uncertainty felt** | 12 | 10 | 14 | 11 | 10 |
- * Average since 1989 for the composite indicator and since 1988 for the balances of opinion, except general outlook (June 2000) and uncertainty (April 2021)
- ** Balance of opinion not seasonally adjusted
- Source: INSEE, monthly business survey in services.
The business climate has evolved in mixed ways in the sub-sectors of services
In February 2023, in accommodation and food services, the business climate has improved significantly and stands well above its average. In particular, the balances of opinion on past and expected activity, and on the general business outlook for the sector, have improved very sharply.
In administrative and support services, the business climate has also improved and remains above its average level. The balances of opinion on expected activity and on expected demand have increased sharply.
In information-communication, the business climate has improved slightly and remains above its average. In particular, the balance on past activity has increased sharply.
In professional, scientific and technical activities, the business climate is virtually stable.
In road freight transport, the business climate has deteriorated slightly again and remains below its long-term average. In particular, the balances of opinion on past and expected activity have decreased.
Eventually, in real estate activities, the business climate has deteriorated: the related indicator has decreased but remains above its average. In particular, the balances of opinion on the personal and general business outlook have declined.
tableauBusiness climate composite indicator and balances of opinion by sub-sector in services
| Aggregated classification (NA 2008) at level A21 | Mean* | Nov. 2022 | Dec. 2022 | Jan. 2023 | Feb. 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Road transport (8%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 102 | 101 | 99 | 98 |
| Past activity | -5 | -1 | 5 | 8 | -10 |
| Expected activity | -6 | -4 | -8 | -12 | -17 |
| Expected demand | -8 | -16 | -18 | -18 | -18 |
| Past employment | -5 | -4 | -1 | 4 | 5 |
| Expected employment | -6 | 6 | 5 | -3 | 3 |
| General outlook | -18 | -13 | -20 | -31 | -24 |
| Accommodation and food service activities (11%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 104 | 105 | 106 | 110 |
| Past activity | -7 | 27 | 5 | 12 | 24 |
| Expected activity | -7 | -8 | -1 | -2 | 5 |
| Expected demand | -9 | -8 | -8 | -4 | -4 |
| Past employment | -5 | 2 | 10 | -1 | 3 |
| Expected employment | -6 | 2 | -2 | -1 | 4 |
| General outlook | -14 | -13 | -6 | -6 | 3 |
| Information and communication (26%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 105 | 104 | 107 | 109 |
| Past activity | 8 | 7 | 7 | 12 | 22 |
| Expected activity | 9 | 9 | 8 | 12 | 17 |
| Expected demand | 9 | 15 | 6 | 11 | 8 |
| Past employment | 6 | 20 | 25 | 26 | 27 |
| Expected employment | 10 | 16 | 12 | 24 | 22 |
| General outlook | 0 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 5 |
| Real estate activities (11%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 104 | 101 | 106 | 102 |
| Past activity | 7 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 7 |
| Expected activity | 6 | 6 | 4 | 9 | 6 |
| Expected demand | 2 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 |
| Past employment | 3 | 12 | 3 | 7 | 1 |
| Expected employment | 3 | 9 | 3 | 5 | 2 |
| General outlook | -4 | -7 | -9 | -2 | -7 |
| Professional, scientific and technical activities (24%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 104 | 105 | 104 | 105 |
| Past activity | -1 | -2 | -2 | 8 | 3 |
| Expected activity | -2 | -1 | -3 | -1 | 0 |
| Expected demand | -5 | -3 | -1 | -3 | -3 |
| Past employment | 1 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 3 |
| Expected employment | 1 | 3 | 9 | 8 | 5 |
| General outlook | -8 | -1 | -3 | -6 | -4 |
| Administrative and support service activities (18%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 101 | 102 | 104 | 107 |
| Past activity | 5 | 10 | 20 | 12 | 7 |
| Expected activity | 5 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 16 |
| Expected demand | 3 | -3 | -4 | 2 | 10 |
| Past employment | 8 | -3 | 13 | 5 | 2 |
| Expected employment | 7 | 18 | 15 | 19 | 15 |
| General outlook | -3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
- The figures in parentheses indicate the weights used to aggregate the sub-sector balances of opinion. The “other services” sub-sector is not displayed due to its low weight.
- *Composite indicator: average since 1989 (2006 for road transport); balances of opinion: average since 1988, except general outlook since June 2000 (2006 for road transport)
- Source: INSEE, monthly business survey in services.
Revision
The business climate indicator in services of January 2023 has not been revised (after rounding).
For further information
The composite indicators of business climate presented here are estimated independently of one another. Thus, that of the whole services cannot be deduced from the others. The same balances of opinion are included into their calculations, but they are not assigned the same weightings. Also, the indicators are scaled to have a long-run average of 100 and a standard deviation of 10. The climate series do not have the same historical beginning, so their standardisation differs slightly. Discrepancies may therefore appear from time to time.
For the three-modality questions, a balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the weighted percentage of “increase” responses and the weighted percentage of “decrease” responses.
The responses to this survey were collected between 27 January and 17 February 2023.
Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of the web page of this publication.
Next issue: 28 March 2023 at 8:45 am.
Documentation
Changes to business tendency surveys – October 2021 (pdf,181 Ko)
Abbreviated methodology (in French) (pdf,193 Ko)
Pour en savoir plus
The composite indicators of business climate presented here are estimated independently of one another. Thus, that of the whole services cannot be deduced from the others. The same balances of opinion are included into their calculations, but they are not assigned the same weightings. Also, the indicators are scaled to have a long-run average of 100 and a standard deviation of 10. The climate series do not have the same historical beginning, so their standardisation differs slightly. Discrepancies may therefore appear from time to time.
For the three-modality questions, a balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the weighted percentage of “increase” responses and the weighted percentage of “decrease” responses.
The responses to this survey were collected between 27 January and 17 February 2023.
Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of the web page of this publication.
Next issue: 28 March 2023 at 8:45 am.