Informations Rapides ·
24 November 2022 · n° 306
In November 2022, the business climate has deteriorated slightly in services Monthly survey of services - November 2022
According to the business managers surveyed in November 2022, the business climate has deteriorated slightly in services. At 104, the business climate indicator that synthesizes it has lost two points but remains above its long-term average (100).
According to the business managers surveyed in November 2022, the business climate has deteriorated slightly in services. At 104, the business climate indicator that synthesizes it has lost two points but remains above its long-term average (100).
tableauBusiness climate composite indicator
| Business climate composite indicator | |
|---|---|
| 2022-11 | 104.3 |
| 2022-10 | 105.5 |
| 2022-09 | 105.6 |
| 2022-08 | 106.6 |
| 2022-07 | 106.6 |
| 2022-06 | 107.7 |
| 2022-05 | 109.0 |
| 2022-04 | 108.1 |
| 2022-03 | 108.4 |
| 2022-02 | 111.9 |
| 2022-01 | 105.3 |
| 2021-12 | 107.1 |
| 2021-11 | 113.8 |
| 2021-10 | 112.6 |
| 2021-09 | 109.7 |
| 2021-08 | 108.3 |
| 2021-07 | 110.7 |
| 2021-06 | 111.6 |
| 2021-05 | 106.1 |
| 2021-04 | 91.2 |
| 2021-03 | 93.5 |
| 2021-02 | 88.1 |
| 2021-01 | 91.0 |
| 2020-12 | 89.6 |
| 2020-11 | 77.4 |
| 2020-10 | 88.4 |
| 2020-09 | 94.0 |
| 2020-08 | 93.2 |
| 2020-07 | 88.5 |
| 2020-06 | 77.5 |
| 2020-05 | 50.9 |
| 2020-04 | 40.8 |
| 2020-03 | 92.5 |
| 2020-02 | 105.8 |
| 2020-01 | 105.9 |
| 2019-12 | 106.3 |
| 2019-11 | 106.0 |
| 2019-10 | 105.5 |
| 2019-09 | 105.4 |
| 2019-08 | 104.8 |
| 2019-07 | 104.9 |
| 2019-06 | 105.5 |
| 2019-05 | 105.3 |
| 2019-04 | 105.3 |
| 2019-03 | 104.5 |
| 2019-02 | 103.5 |
| 2019-01 | 103.4 |
| 2018-12 | 101.8 |
| 2018-11 | 103.5 |
| 2018-10 | 103.1 |
| 2018-09 | 104.2 |
| 2018-08 | 103.8 |
| 2018-07 | 104.2 |
| 2018-06 | 104.3 |
| 2018-05 | 103.9 |
| 2018-04 | 105.6 |
| 2018-03 | 106.5 |
| 2018-02 | 106.4 |
| 2018-01 | 107.4 |
| 2017-12 | 108.3 |
| 2017-11 | 107.1 |
| 2017-10 | 106.5 |
| 2017-09 | 106.3 |
| 2017-08 | 105.8 |
| 2017-07 | 103.7 |
| 2017-06 | 103.2 |
| 2017-05 | 102.4 |
| 2017-04 | 103.0 |
| 2017-03 | 103.1 |
| 2017-02 | 102.7 |
| 2017-01 | 101.5 |
| 2016-12 | 103.3 |
| 2016-11 | 100.7 |
| 2016-10 | 100.6 |
| 2016-09 | 100.7 |
| 2016-08 | 100.1 |
| 2016-07 | 100.3 |
| 2016-06 | 99.1 |
| 2016-05 | 100.6 |
| 2016-04 | 98.3 |
| 2016-03 | 99.5 |
| 2016-02 | 99.9 |
| 2016-01 | 100.0 |
| 2015-12 | 97.1 |
| 2015-11 | 99.3 |
| 2015-10 | 99.5 |
| 2015-09 | 97.5 |
| 2015-08 | 98.6 |
| 2015-07 | 97.5 |
| 2015-06 | 96.9 |
| 2015-05 | 95.5 |
| 2015-04 | 94.0 |
| 2015-03 | 92.5 |
| 2015-02 | 91.6 |
| 2015-01 | 91.3 |
| 2014-12 | 91.5 |
| 2014-11 | 91.4 |
| 2014-10 | 91.5 |
| 2014-09 | 91.2 |
| 2014-08 | 91.8 |
| 2014-07 | 92.7 |
| 2014-06 | 92.4 |
| 2014-05 | 92.4 |
| 2014-04 | 93.4 |
| 2014-03 | 93.1 |
| 2014-02 | 92.3 |
| 2014-01 | 92.5 |
| 2013-12 | 91.1 |
| 2013-11 | 92.6 |
| 2013-10 | 91.9 |
| 2013-09 | 92.4 |
| 2013-08 | 88.9 |
| 2013-07 | 86.9 |
| 2013-06 | 86.4 |
| 2013-05 | 85.2 |
| 2013-04 | 83.8 |
| 2013-03 | 84.7 |
| 2013-02 | 87.5 |
| 2013-01 | 88.6 |
| 2012-12 | 87.6 |
| 2012-11 | 86.0 |
| 2012-10 | 86.6 |
| 2012-09 | 87.8 |
| 2012-08 | 88.0 |
| 2012-07 | 90.0 |
| 2012-06 | 90.4 |
| 2012-05 | 92.4 |
| 2012-04 | 95.9 |
| 2012-03 | 93.9 |
| 2012-02 | 92.6 |
| 2012-01 | 93.2 |
| 2011-12 | 95.1 |
| 2011-11 | 95.5 |
| 2011-10 | 97.6 |
| 2011-09 | 98.6 |
| 2011-08 | 100.7 |
| 2011-07 | 105.0 |
| 2011-06 | 107.1 |
| 2011-05 | 107.5 |
| 2011-04 | 108.9 |
| 2011-03 | 110.2 |
| 2011-02 | 109.0 |
| 2011-01 | 106.9 |
| 2010-12 | 106.6 |
| 2010-11 | 104.6 |
| 2010-10 | 102.8 |
| 2010-09 | 101.5 |
| 2010-08 | 100.6 |
| 2010-07 | 99.1 |
| 2010-06 | 98.3 |
| 2010-05 | 99.2 |
| 2010-04 | 97.6 |
| 2010-03 | 94.5 |
| 2010-02 | 94.3 |
| 2010-01 | 94.1 |
| 2009-12 | 92.7 |
| 2009-11 | 92.2 |
| 2009-10 | 90.8 |
| 2009-09 | 87.8 |
| 2009-08 | 84.6 |
| 2009-07 | 82.1 |
| 2009-06 | 78.5 |
| 2009-05 | 73.9 |
| 2009-04 | 70.0 |
| 2009-03 | 69.9 |
| 2009-02 | 74.9 |
| 2009-01 | 76.0 |
| 2008-12 | 78.6 |
| 2008-11 | 81.6 |
| 2008-10 | 85.6 |
| 2008-09 | 93.9 |
| 2008-08 | 95.8 |
| 2008-07 | 97.3 |
| 2008-06 | 101.5 |
| 2008-05 | 104.6 |
| 2008-04 | 107.0 |
| 2008-03 | 108.5 |
| 2008-02 | 108.5 |
| 2008-01 | 110.2 |
| 2007-12 | 108.9 |
| 2007-11 | 110.0 |
| 2007-10 | 109.9 |
| 2007-09 | 111.2 |
| 2007-08 | 111.9 |
| 2007-07 | 112.8 |
| 2007-06 | 112.2 |
| 2007-05 | 112.5 |
| 2007-04 | 112.6 |
| 2007-03 | 113.0 |
| 2007-02 | 112.0 |
| 2007-01 | 110.6 |
| 2006-12 | 111.2 |
| 2006-11 | 112.7 |
| 2006-10 | 110.6 |
| 2006-09 | 110.4 |
| 2006-08 | 110.2 |
| 2006-07 | 110.1 |
| 2006-06 | 109.0 |
| 2006-05 | 110.2 |
| 2006-04 | 107.7 |
| 2006-03 | 107.4 |
| 2006-02 | 106.1 |
| 2006-01 | 108.5 |
| 2005-12 | 106.6 |
| 2005-11 | 106.3 |
| 2005-10 | 108.3 |
| 2005-09 | 106.8 |
| 2005-08 | 107.2 |
| 2005-07 | 107.5 |
| 2005-06 | 108.2 |
| 2005-05 | 106.0 |
| 2005-04 | 107.8 |
| 2005-03 | 108.1 |
| 2005-02 | 106.1 |
| 2005-01 | 106.4 |
graphiqueBusiness climate composite indicator
- Source: INSEE
Business managers expectations on activity have deteriorated a bit
In November 2022, the business managers in services are a bit less optimistic than in the previous month about their activity prospects: the balances of opinion related to the general business outlook for the sector and to expected demand have decreased slightly but remain above their average. The one about the personal business outlook has also decreased and has returned to its own. At the same time, the balance on economic uncertainty felt has fallen back.
The balance of opinion on activity over the past three months has also fallen back but remains above its average.
The balance of opinion on the recent change in selling prices is stable, well above its average. The one on the expected change in selling prices has increased again and has reached a level not seen since 1990.
tableauExpected prices in services
| Expected prices | |
|---|---|
| 2022-11 | 12.7 |
| 2022-10 | 10.5 |
| 2022-09 | 8.8 |
| 2022-08 | 10.4 |
| 2022-07 | 12.4 |
| 2022-06 | 11.0 |
| 2022-05 | 10.5 |
| 2022-04 | 12.1 |
| 2022-03 | 7.3 |
| 2022-02 | 9.0 |
| 2022-01 | 8.0 |
| 2021-12 | 5.5 |
| 2021-11 | 6.6 |
| 2021-10 | 2.9 |
| 2021-09 | 1.8 |
| 2021-08 | 4.0 |
| 2021-07 | 5.2 |
| 2021-06 | 0.8 |
| 2021-05 | -0.6 |
| 2021-04 | -8.1 |
| 2021-03 | -8.0 |
| 2021-02 | -10.9 |
| 2021-01 | -9.4 |
| 2020-12 | -8.1 |
| 2020-11 | -12.7 |
| 2020-10 | -10.3 |
| 2020-09 | -4.8 |
| 2020-08 | -5.4 |
| 2020-07 | -7.0 |
| 2020-06 | -12.3 |
| 2020-05 | -22.6 |
| 2020-04 | -22.6 |
| 2020-03 | -3.7 |
| 2020-02 | 0.7 |
| 2020-01 | 0.3 |
| 2019-12 | 0.1 |
| 2019-11 | -0.2 |
| 2019-10 | 0.7 |
| 2019-09 | -2.2 |
| 2019-08 | -0.9 |
| 2019-07 | 1.7 |
| 2019-06 | 0.4 |
| 2019-05 | -1.9 |
| 2019-04 | -2.1 |
| 2019-03 | -1.3 |
| 2019-02 | -2.5 |
| 2019-01 | -2.2 |
| 2018-12 | -0.2 |
| 2018-11 | -2.4 |
| 2018-10 | -3.6 |
| 2018-09 | -2.8 |
| 2018-08 | -0.3 |
| 2018-07 | -5.3 |
| 2018-06 | -4.6 |
| 2018-05 | -2.3 |
| 2018-04 | -2.7 |
| 2018-03 | -3.5 |
| 2018-02 | -3.9 |
| 2018-01 | -2.5 |
| 2017-12 | -3.7 |
| 2017-11 | -2.6 |
| 2017-10 | -2.8 |
| 2017-09 | -2.8 |
| 2017-08 | -5.2 |
| 2017-07 | -5.7 |
| 2017-06 | -4.0 |
| 2017-05 | -5.3 |
| 2017-04 | -5.1 |
| 2017-03 | -3.8 |
| 2017-02 | -3.9 |
| 2017-01 | -6.5 |
| 2016-12 | -5.5 |
| 2016-11 | -7.7 |
| 2016-10 | -6.8 |
| 2016-09 | -4.8 |
| 2016-08 | -5.2 |
| 2016-07 | -4.7 |
| 2016-06 | -6.8 |
| 2016-05 | -6.2 |
| 2016-04 | -4.9 |
| 2016-03 | -5.1 |
| 2016-02 | -4.6 |
| 2016-01 | -8.5 |
| 2015-12 | -8.8 |
| 2015-11 | -5.8 |
| 2015-10 | -5.9 |
| 2015-09 | -7.5 |
| 2015-08 | -6.4 |
| 2015-07 | -6.9 |
| 2015-06 | -6.1 |
| 2015-05 | -6.2 |
| 2015-04 | -7.8 |
| 2015-03 | -9.8 |
| 2015-02 | -9.7 |
| 2015-01 | -11.4 |
| 2014-12 | -11.0 |
| 2014-11 | -10.3 |
| 2014-10 | -9.5 |
| 2014-09 | -10.6 |
| 2014-08 | -9.0 |
| 2014-07 | -9.2 |
| 2014-06 | -9.3 |
| 2014-05 | -9.9 |
| 2014-04 | -9.6 |
| 2014-03 | -10.8 |
| 2014-02 | -11.0 |
| 2014-01 | -8.4 |
| 2013-12 | -9.4 |
| 2013-11 | -8.4 |
| 2013-10 | -10.1 |
| 2013-09 | -10.4 |
| 2013-08 | -10.7 |
| 2013-07 | -12.3 |
| 2013-06 | -12.0 |
| 2013-05 | -12.2 |
| 2013-04 | -12.2 |
| 2013-03 | -12.0 |
| 2013-02 | -11.9 |
| 2013-01 | -9.8 |
| 2012-12 | -9.2 |
| 2012-11 | -9.5 |
| 2012-10 | -11.0 |
| 2012-09 | -7.6 |
| 2012-08 | -7.8 |
| 2012-07 | -4.3 |
| 2012-06 | -6.0 |
| 2012-05 | -5.6 |
| 2012-04 | -4.2 |
| 2012-03 | -0.7 |
| 2012-02 | -3.4 |
| 2012-01 | 0.5 |
| 2011-12 | -2.3 |
| 2011-11 | -4.3 |
| 2011-10 | -3.0 |
| 2011-09 | -1.6 |
| 2011-08 | -1.5 |
| 2011-07 | -0.3 |
| 2011-06 | 0.5 |
| 2011-05 | 5.1 |
| 2011-04 | 2.4 |
| 2011-03 | 3.5 |
| 2011-02 | 3.3 |
| 2011-01 | -0.1 |
| 2010-12 | 0.0 |
| 2010-11 | -1.1 |
| 2010-10 | -0.9 |
| 2010-09 | -3.1 |
| 2010-08 | -3.8 |
| 2010-07 | -7.7 |
| 2010-06 | -5.4 |
| 2010-05 | -5.7 |
| 2010-04 | -7.8 |
| 2010-03 | -7.5 |
| 2010-02 | -9.0 |
| 2010-01 | -8.5 |
| 2009-12 | -10.1 |
| 2009-11 | -10.1 |
| 2009-10 | -9.4 |
| 2009-09 | -12.4 |
| 2009-08 | -14.4 |
| 2009-07 | -18.5 |
| 2009-06 | -15.4 |
| 2009-05 | -17.8 |
| 2009-04 | -17.7 |
| 2009-03 | -17.1 |
| 2009-02 | -13.1 |
| 2009-01 | -13.1 |
| 2008-12 | -13.8 |
| 2008-11 | -9.6 |
| 2008-10 | -2.7 |
| 2008-09 | 0.3 |
| 2008-08 | 1.5 |
| 2008-07 | 3.4 |
| 2008-06 | 3.3 |
| 2008-05 | 3.4 |
| 2008-04 | 3.9 |
| 2008-03 | 2.6 |
| 2008-02 | 2.1 |
| 2008-01 | 2.2 |
| 2007-12 | 3.0 |
| 2007-11 | 2.8 |
| 2007-10 | 1.3 |
| 2007-09 | 2.3 |
| 2007-08 | 3.2 |
| 2007-07 | 3.4 |
| 2007-06 | 2.1 |
| 2007-05 | 2.9 |
| 2007-04 | 2.2 |
| 2007-03 | 1.5 |
| 2007-02 | 1.1 |
| 2007-01 | 1.8 |
graphiqueExpected prices in services
- Source: INSEE
Concerning employment, the balance of opinion on the change in the workforce size over the last three months has fallen back sharply but remains above its average. Conversely, the one on the expected workforce size has increased and has moved away from its own.
tableauEconomic outlook in the services sector
| Average* | Aug. 2022 | Sep. 2022 | Oct. 2022 | Nov. 2022 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Composite indicator | 100 | 107 | 106 | 106 | 104 |
| General outlook | -7 | 0 | -1 | -2 | -3 |
| Past activity | 2 | 14 | 6 | 9 | 7 |
| Expected activity | 2 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 2 |
| Expected demand | 0 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| Past selling prices | -3 | 13 | 9 | 13 | 13 |
| Expected selling prices | -2 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 13 |
| Past employment | 2 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 5 |
| except temporary work agencies | 0 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 2 |
| Expected employment | 2 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 10 |
| except temporary work agencies | -1 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 4 |
| Economic uncertainty felt** | 12 | 7 | 10 | 15 | 9 |
- * Average since 1989 for the composite indicator and since 1988 for the balances of opinion, except general outlook (June 2000) and uncertainty (April 2021)
- ** Balance of opinion not seasonally adjusted
- Source: INSEE, monthly business survey in services.
The business climate has deteriorated in all services sub-sectors except in information-communication
In November 2022, the business climate indicator has fallen back sharply in administrative and support services but remains slightly above its average level. In particular, the balance about past employment has fallen back sharply, as well as the one on expected demand, that has reached its lowest level since April 2021.
In accommodation and food services and in professional, scientific and technical activities, the business climate has deteriorated but remains above its average. In particular, the balances on expected activity and on expected demand have decreased in both sub-sectors. They have moved below their average in accommodation and food services.
In road freight transport and in real estate activities, the business climate indicator has decreased slightly but remains above its average. In particular, the balances on the general and personal business outlook have decreased.
In information-communication, the business climate has improved slightly and therefore remains above its average. In particular, the balances of opinion on expected activity and on expected demand have rebounded sharply. The balance on the expected change in selling prices has also reached in this sub-sector a level not seen since 1991.
tableauBusiness climate composite indicator and balances of opinion by sub-sector in services
| Aggregated classification (NA 2008) at level A21 | Mean* | Aug. 2022 | Sep. 2022 | Oct. 2022 | Nov. 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Road transport (8 %) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 100 | 103 | 102 | 101 |
| Past activity | -5 | 5 | -2 | 1 | -1 |
| Expected activity | -6 | -3 | -6 | -1 | -4 |
| Expected demand | -8 | -17 | -1 | -16 | -16 |
| Past employment | -5 | -12 | -5 | 2 | -5 |
| Expected employment | -6 | -4 | -6 | -1 | 6 |
| General outlook | -18 | -17 | -13 | -11 | -14 |
| Accommodation and food service activities (11 %) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 114 | 106 | 106 | 103 |
| Past activity | -7 | 23 | 28 | 28 | 24 |
| Expected activity | -8 | 10 | -2 | -1 | -11 |
| Expected demand | -9 | 1 | -5 | -6 | -10 |
| Past employment | -5 | 0 | 11 | 9 | 5 |
| Expected employment | -6 | -3 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| General outlook | -14 | 11 | -15 | -15 | -14 |
| Information and communication (26 %) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 108 | 105 | 105 | 106 |
| Past activity | 7 | 19 | 9 | 12 | 7 |
| Expected activity | 9 | 18 | 11 | 5 | 9 |
| Expected demand | 9 | 14 | 14 | 6 | 15 |
| Past employment | 6 | 19 | 9 | 20 | 21 |
| Expected employment | 10 | 27 | 17 | 17 | 17 |
| General outlook | 0 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 5 |
| Real estate activities (11 %) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 106 | 102 | 105 | 104 |
| Past activity | 7 | 17 | 17 | 8 | 11 |
| Expected activity | 6 | 8 | 7 | 9 | 6 |
| Expected demand | 2 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 2 |
| Past employment | 3 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 11 |
| Expected employment | 3 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 10 |
| General outlook | -4 | 0 | -5 | -5 | -8 |
| Professional, scientific and technical activities (24 %) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 108 | 107 | 106 | 104 |
| Past activity | -1 | 9 | -1 | -1 | -2 |
| Expected activity | -2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | -1 |
| Expected demand | -5 | -2 | 1 | 2 | -3 |
| Past employment | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Expected employment | 1 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 3 |
| General outlook | -8 | 3 | 2 | -3 | -1 |
| Administrative and support service activities (18 %) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 100 | 101 | 105 | 101 |
| Past activity | 5 | 13 | 2 | 12 | 12 |
| Expected activity | 5 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 3 |
| Expected demand | 3 | -1 | 3 | 5 | -5 |
| Past employment | 8 | -5 | -6 | 16 | 3 |
| Expected employment | 7 | -4 | 15 | 15 | 20 |
| General outlook | -3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
- The figures in parentheses indicate the weights used to aggregate the sub-sector balances of opinion.
- *Composite indicator: average since 1989 (2006 for road transport); balances of opinion: average since 1988, except general outlook since June 2000 (2006 for road transport)
- Source: INSEE, monthly business survey in services.
Revision
The business climate indicator in services of October 2022 has been revised upwards by one point. This revision is mainly due to the inclusion of late responses from businesses.
For further information
The composite indicators of business climate presented here are estimated independently of one another. Thus, that of the whole services cannot be deduced from the others. The same balances of opinion are included into their calculations, but they are not assigned the same weightings. Also, the indicators are scaled to have a long-run average of 100 and a standard deviation of 10. The climate series do not have the same historical beginning, so their standardisation differs slightly. Discrepancies may therefore appear from time to time.
For the three-modality questions, a balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the weighted percentage of “increase” responses and the weighted percentage of “decrease” responses.
Since the definitive data of April 2020, the way of correcting mode of non-response has been modified. The usual method was to fill in missing answers by carrying on past answers from non-responding companies. The results are now computed on the sole basis of responding companies.
The responses to this survey were collected between 27 October and 21 November 2022.
Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of the web page of this publication.
Next issue: 15 December 2022 at 8:45 am.
Documentation
Changes to business tendency surveys – October 2021 (pdf,181 Ko)
Abbreviated methodology (in French) (pdf,193 Ko)
Pour en savoir plus
The composite indicators of business climate presented here are estimated independently of one another. Thus, that of the whole services cannot be deduced from the others. The same balances of opinion are included into their calculations, but they are not assigned the same weightings. Also, the indicators are scaled to have a long-run average of 100 and a standard deviation of 10. The climate series do not have the same historical beginning, so their standardisation differs slightly. Discrepancies may therefore appear from time to time.
For the three-modality questions, a balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the weighted percentage of “increase” responses and the weighted percentage of “decrease” responses.
Since the definitive data of April 2020, the way of correcting mode of non-response has been modified. The usual method was to fill in missing answers by carrying on past answers from non-responding companies. The results are now computed on the sole basis of responding companies.
The responses to this survey were collected between 27 October and 21 November 2022.
Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of the web page of this publication.
Next issue: 15 December 2022 at 8:45 am.