Informations Rapides ·
20 October 2022 · n° 276
In October 2022, the business climate is virtually stable in services Monthly survey of services - October 2022
According to the business managers surveyed in October 2022, the business climate is virtually stable in services. At 105, the business climate indicator that synthesizes it remains above its long-term average (100).
According to the business managers surveyed in October 2022, the business climate is virtually stable in services. At 105, the business climate indicator that synthesizes it remains above its long-term average (100).
tableauBusiness climate composite indicator
| Business climate composite indicator | |
|---|---|
| 2022-10 | 105.4 |
| 2022-09 | 105.6 |
| 2022-08 | 106.6 |
| 2022-07 | 106.7 |
| 2022-06 | 107.7 |
| 2022-05 | 109.0 |
| 2022-04 | 108.1 |
| 2022-03 | 108.4 |
| 2022-02 | 111.9 |
| 2022-01 | 105.3 |
| 2021-12 | 107.1 |
| 2021-11 | 113.8 |
| 2021-10 | 112.6 |
| 2021-09 | 109.7 |
| 2021-08 | 108.3 |
| 2021-07 | 110.7 |
| 2021-06 | 111.6 |
| 2021-05 | 106.1 |
| 2021-04 | 91.2 |
| 2021-03 | 93.5 |
| 2021-02 | 88.1 |
| 2021-01 | 91.1 |
| 2020-12 | 89.6 |
| 2020-11 | 77.5 |
| 2020-10 | 88.4 |
| 2020-09 | 94.0 |
| 2020-08 | 93.3 |
| 2020-07 | 88.5 |
| 2020-06 | 77.6 |
| 2020-05 | 51.0 |
| 2020-04 | 40.9 |
| 2020-03 | 92.6 |
| 2020-02 | 105.8 |
| 2020-01 | 105.9 |
| 2019-12 | 106.3 |
| 2019-11 | 106.0 |
| 2019-10 | 105.5 |
| 2019-09 | 105.4 |
| 2019-08 | 104.8 |
| 2019-07 | 104.9 |
| 2019-06 | 105.5 |
| 2019-05 | 105.3 |
| 2019-04 | 105.3 |
| 2019-03 | 104.5 |
| 2019-02 | 103.5 |
| 2019-01 | 103.4 |
| 2018-12 | 101.8 |
| 2018-11 | 103.5 |
| 2018-10 | 103.1 |
| 2018-09 | 104.2 |
| 2018-08 | 103.8 |
| 2018-07 | 104.2 |
| 2018-06 | 104.4 |
| 2018-05 | 103.9 |
| 2018-04 | 105.6 |
| 2018-03 | 106.5 |
| 2018-02 | 106.4 |
| 2018-01 | 107.4 |
| 2017-12 | 108.3 |
| 2017-11 | 107.1 |
| 2017-10 | 106.5 |
| 2017-09 | 106.3 |
| 2017-08 | 105.8 |
| 2017-07 | 103.7 |
| 2017-06 | 103.2 |
| 2017-05 | 102.4 |
| 2017-04 | 103.0 |
| 2017-03 | 103.1 |
| 2017-02 | 102.7 |
| 2017-01 | 101.5 |
| 2016-12 | 103.3 |
| 2016-11 | 100.7 |
| 2016-10 | 100.6 |
| 2016-09 | 100.7 |
| 2016-08 | 100.1 |
| 2016-07 | 100.3 |
| 2016-06 | 99.1 |
| 2016-05 | 100.6 |
| 2016-04 | 98.3 |
| 2016-03 | 99.5 |
| 2016-02 | 99.9 |
| 2016-01 | 100.0 |
| 2015-12 | 97.1 |
| 2015-11 | 99.3 |
| 2015-10 | 99.5 |
| 2015-09 | 97.6 |
| 2015-08 | 98.6 |
| 2015-07 | 97.5 |
| 2015-06 | 96.9 |
| 2015-05 | 95.5 |
| 2015-04 | 94.0 |
| 2015-03 | 92.5 |
| 2015-02 | 91.7 |
| 2015-01 | 91.3 |
| 2014-12 | 91.5 |
| 2014-11 | 91.5 |
| 2014-10 | 91.5 |
| 2014-09 | 91.2 |
| 2014-08 | 91.8 |
| 2014-07 | 92.8 |
| 2014-06 | 92.5 |
| 2014-05 | 92.4 |
| 2014-04 | 93.4 |
| 2014-03 | 93.2 |
| 2014-02 | 92.3 |
| 2014-01 | 92.5 |
| 2013-12 | 91.1 |
| 2013-11 | 92.6 |
| 2013-10 | 91.9 |
| 2013-09 | 92.4 |
| 2013-08 | 88.9 |
| 2013-07 | 87.0 |
| 2013-06 | 86.5 |
| 2013-05 | 85.3 |
| 2013-04 | 83.9 |
| 2013-03 | 84.7 |
| 2013-02 | 87.5 |
| 2013-01 | 88.7 |
| 2012-12 | 87.6 |
| 2012-11 | 86.0 |
| 2012-10 | 86.7 |
| 2012-09 | 87.8 |
| 2012-08 | 88.0 |
| 2012-07 | 90.1 |
| 2012-06 | 90.5 |
| 2012-05 | 92.4 |
| 2012-04 | 95.9 |
| 2012-03 | 93.9 |
| 2012-02 | 92.6 |
| 2012-01 | 93.2 |
| 2011-12 | 95.1 |
| 2011-11 | 95.5 |
| 2011-10 | 97.6 |
| 2011-09 | 98.6 |
| 2011-08 | 100.7 |
| 2011-07 | 105.0 |
| 2011-06 | 107.1 |
| 2011-05 | 107.5 |
| 2011-04 | 108.9 |
| 2011-03 | 110.2 |
| 2011-02 | 109.0 |
| 2011-01 | 106.9 |
| 2010-12 | 106.6 |
| 2010-11 | 104.7 |
| 2010-10 | 102.8 |
| 2010-09 | 101.6 |
| 2010-08 | 100.6 |
| 2010-07 | 99.1 |
| 2010-06 | 98.3 |
| 2010-05 | 99.2 |
| 2010-04 | 97.6 |
| 2010-03 | 94.5 |
| 2010-02 | 94.3 |
| 2010-01 | 94.1 |
| 2009-12 | 92.7 |
| 2009-11 | 92.2 |
| 2009-10 | 90.9 |
| 2009-09 | 87.8 |
| 2009-08 | 84.6 |
| 2009-07 | 82.1 |
| 2009-06 | 78.5 |
| 2009-05 | 74.0 |
| 2009-04 | 70.1 |
| 2009-03 | 69.9 |
| 2009-02 | 74.9 |
| 2009-01 | 76.1 |
| 2008-12 | 78.6 |
| 2008-11 | 81.7 |
| 2008-10 | 85.6 |
| 2008-09 | 94.0 |
| 2008-08 | 95.9 |
| 2008-07 | 97.3 |
| 2008-06 | 101.5 |
| 2008-05 | 104.6 |
| 2008-04 | 107.0 |
| 2008-03 | 108.5 |
| 2008-02 | 108.5 |
| 2008-01 | 110.2 |
| 2007-12 | 108.9 |
| 2007-11 | 110.0 |
| 2007-10 | 109.9 |
| 2007-09 | 111.2 |
| 2007-08 | 111.9 |
| 2007-07 | 112.8 |
| 2007-06 | 112.2 |
| 2007-05 | 112.5 |
| 2007-04 | 112.6 |
| 2007-03 | 113.0 |
| 2007-02 | 112.0 |
| 2007-01 | 110.6 |
| 2006-12 | 111.2 |
| 2006-11 | 112.7 |
| 2006-10 | 110.6 |
| 2006-09 | 110.4 |
| 2006-08 | 110.2 |
| 2006-07 | 110.1 |
| 2006-06 | 108.9 |
| 2006-05 | 110.2 |
| 2006-04 | 107.7 |
| 2006-03 | 107.4 |
| 2006-02 | 106.1 |
| 2006-01 | 108.5 |
| 2005-12 | 106.6 |
| 2005-11 | 106.3 |
| 2005-10 | 108.3 |
| 2005-09 | 106.8 |
| 2005-08 | 107.2 |
| 2005-07 | 107.5 |
| 2005-06 | 108.2 |
| 2005-05 | 106.0 |
| 2005-04 | 107.8 |
| 2005-03 | 108.1 |
| 2005-02 | 106.1 |
| 2005-01 | 106.4 |
graphiqueBusiness climate composite indicator
- Source: INSEE
The business managers are a bit less optimistic about their activity prospects
In October 2022, the business managers in services are a bit less optimistic than in the previous month about their activity prospects: the balances of opinion related to the general business outlook for the sector and to expected demand have decreased but remain above their averages. The one about personal business outlook is stable and remains above its own. At the same time, the balance on economic uncertainty felt has increased again.
The balance of opinion on activity over the past three months has rebounded and remains above its average.
The balances of opinion on the recent and expected change in selling prices have also both rebounded and stand well above their long-term averages.
tableauExpected prices in services
| Expected prices | |
|---|---|
| 2022-10 | 10.8 |
| 2022-09 | 8.8 |
| 2022-08 | 10.4 |
| 2022-07 | 12.4 |
| 2022-06 | 11.0 |
| 2022-05 | 10.5 |
| 2022-04 | 12.1 |
| 2022-03 | 7.3 |
| 2022-02 | 9.0 |
| 2022-01 | 8.0 |
| 2021-12 | 5.5 |
| 2021-11 | 6.6 |
| 2021-10 | 2.9 |
| 2021-09 | 1.8 |
| 2021-08 | 4.0 |
| 2021-07 | 5.2 |
| 2021-06 | 0.8 |
| 2021-05 | -0.6 |
| 2021-04 | -8.1 |
| 2021-03 | -8.0 |
| 2021-02 | -10.9 |
| 2021-01 | -9.4 |
| 2020-12 | -8.1 |
| 2020-11 | -12.7 |
| 2020-10 | -10.3 |
| 2020-09 | -4.8 |
| 2020-08 | -5.4 |
| 2020-07 | -7.0 |
| 2020-06 | -12.3 |
| 2020-05 | -22.6 |
| 2020-04 | -22.6 |
| 2020-03 | -3.7 |
| 2020-02 | 0.7 |
| 2020-01 | 0.3 |
| 2019-12 | 0.1 |
| 2019-11 | -0.2 |
| 2019-10 | 0.7 |
| 2019-09 | -2.2 |
| 2019-08 | -0.9 |
| 2019-07 | 1.7 |
| 2019-06 | 0.4 |
| 2019-05 | -1.9 |
| 2019-04 | -2.1 |
| 2019-03 | -1.3 |
| 2019-02 | -2.5 |
| 2019-01 | -2.2 |
| 2018-12 | -0.2 |
| 2018-11 | -2.4 |
| 2018-10 | -3.6 |
| 2018-09 | -2.8 |
| 2018-08 | -0.3 |
| 2018-07 | -5.3 |
| 2018-06 | -4.6 |
| 2018-05 | -2.3 |
| 2018-04 | -2.7 |
| 2018-03 | -3.5 |
| 2018-02 | -3.9 |
| 2018-01 | -2.5 |
| 2017-12 | -3.7 |
| 2017-11 | -2.6 |
| 2017-10 | -2.8 |
| 2017-09 | -2.8 |
| 2017-08 | -5.2 |
| 2017-07 | -5.7 |
| 2017-06 | -4.0 |
| 2017-05 | -5.3 |
| 2017-04 | -5.1 |
| 2017-03 | -3.8 |
| 2017-02 | -3.9 |
| 2017-01 | -6.5 |
| 2016-12 | -5.5 |
| 2016-11 | -7.7 |
| 2016-10 | -6.8 |
| 2016-09 | -4.8 |
| 2016-08 | -5.2 |
| 2016-07 | -4.7 |
| 2016-06 | -6.8 |
| 2016-05 | -6.2 |
| 2016-04 | -4.9 |
| 2016-03 | -5.1 |
| 2016-02 | -4.6 |
| 2016-01 | -8.5 |
| 2015-12 | -8.8 |
| 2015-11 | -5.8 |
| 2015-10 | -5.9 |
| 2015-09 | -7.5 |
| 2015-08 | -6.4 |
| 2015-07 | -6.9 |
| 2015-06 | -6.1 |
| 2015-05 | -6.2 |
| 2015-04 | -7.8 |
| 2015-03 | -9.8 |
| 2015-02 | -9.7 |
| 2015-01 | -11.4 |
| 2014-12 | -11.0 |
| 2014-11 | -10.3 |
| 2014-10 | -9.5 |
| 2014-09 | -10.6 |
| 2014-08 | -9.0 |
| 2014-07 | -9.2 |
| 2014-06 | -9.3 |
| 2014-05 | -9.9 |
| 2014-04 | -9.6 |
| 2014-03 | -10.8 |
| 2014-02 | -11.0 |
| 2014-01 | -8.4 |
| 2013-12 | -9.4 |
| 2013-11 | -8.4 |
| 2013-10 | -10.1 |
| 2013-09 | -10.4 |
| 2013-08 | -10.7 |
| 2013-07 | -12.3 |
| 2013-06 | -12.0 |
| 2013-05 | -12.2 |
| 2013-04 | -12.2 |
| 2013-03 | -12.0 |
| 2013-02 | -11.9 |
| 2013-01 | -9.8 |
| 2012-12 | -9.2 |
| 2012-11 | -9.5 |
| 2012-10 | -11.0 |
| 2012-09 | -7.6 |
| 2012-08 | -7.8 |
| 2012-07 | -4.3 |
| 2012-06 | -6.0 |
| 2012-05 | -5.6 |
| 2012-04 | -4.2 |
| 2012-03 | -0.7 |
| 2012-02 | -3.4 |
| 2012-01 | 0.5 |
| 2011-12 | -2.3 |
| 2011-11 | -4.3 |
| 2011-10 | -3.0 |
| 2011-09 | -1.6 |
| 2011-08 | -1.5 |
| 2011-07 | -0.3 |
| 2011-06 | 0.5 |
| 2011-05 | 5.1 |
| 2011-04 | 2.4 |
| 2011-03 | 3.5 |
| 2011-02 | 3.3 |
| 2011-01 | -0.1 |
| 2010-12 | 0.0 |
| 2010-11 | -1.1 |
| 2010-10 | -0.9 |
| 2010-09 | -3.1 |
| 2010-08 | -3.8 |
| 2010-07 | -7.7 |
| 2010-06 | -5.4 |
| 2010-05 | -5.7 |
| 2010-04 | -7.8 |
| 2010-03 | -7.5 |
| 2010-02 | -9.0 |
| 2010-01 | -8.5 |
| 2009-12 | -10.1 |
| 2009-11 | -10.1 |
| 2009-10 | -9.4 |
| 2009-09 | -12.4 |
| 2009-08 | -14.4 |
| 2009-07 | -18.5 |
| 2009-06 | -15.4 |
| 2009-05 | -17.8 |
| 2009-04 | -17.7 |
| 2009-03 | -17.1 |
| 2009-02 | -13.1 |
| 2009-01 | -13.1 |
| 2008-12 | -13.8 |
| 2008-11 | -9.6 |
| 2008-10 | -2.7 |
| 2008-09 | 0.3 |
| 2008-08 | 1.5 |
| 2008-07 | 3.4 |
| 2008-06 | 3.3 |
| 2008-05 | 3.4 |
| 2008-04 | 3.9 |
| 2008-03 | 2.6 |
| 2008-02 | 2.1 |
| 2008-01 | 2.2 |
| 2007-12 | 3.0 |
| 2007-11 | 2.8 |
| 2007-10 | 1.3 |
| 2007-09 | 2.3 |
| 2007-08 | 3.2 |
| 2007-07 | 3.4 |
| 2007-06 | 2.1 |
| 2007-05 | 2.9 |
| 2007-04 | 2.2 |
| 2007-03 | 1.5 |
| 2007-02 | 1.1 |
| 2007-01 | 1.8 |
graphiqueExpected prices in services
- Source: INSEE
Concerning employment, the balance of opinion on the change in the workforce size over the last three months has improved strongly and has returned well above its average. Conversely, the one on the expected workforce size has fallen back but remains above its own.
Besides, more business managers than in last July have reported difficulties in recruitment: at 62%, this proportion stands at its highest level since the beginning of the series (July 2000).
The quarterly balance of opinion on expected investments for the next three months has rebounded and has moved above its average.
Among the obstacles preventing them from increasing their activity, as many business managers as in July have reported demand difficulties – and this proportion remains well below its long-term average. One in three business managers has reported supply difficulties. This proportion is stable compared to July, well above its average.
The quarterly balance on the cash position is virtually stable compared to July, above its average.
tableauEconomic outlook in the services sector
| Average* | July 2022 | Aug. 2022 | Sep. 2022 | Oct. 2022 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Composite indicator | 100 | 107 | 107 | 106 | 105 |
| General outlook | -7 | -1 | 0 | -1 | -2 |
| Past activity | 2 | 14 | 14 | 6 | 9 |
| Expected activity | 2 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 4 |
| Expected demand | 0 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 2 |
| Past selling prices | -3 | 14 | 13 | 9 | 14 |
| Expected selling prices | -2 | 12 | 10 | 9 | 11 |
| Past employment | 2 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 11 |
| except temporary work agencies | 0 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 8 |
| Expected employment | 2 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 6 |
| except temporary work agencies | -1 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 1 |
| Cash position | -11 | -6 | -5 | ||
| Difficulties of supply and demand | |||||
| difficulties of supply and demand (in %) | 10 | 5 | 8 | ||
| difficulties of supply only (in %) | 23 | 34 | 33 | ||
| difficulties of demand only (in %) | 29 | 12 | 12 | ||
| Difficulties in recruitment (in %) | 30 | 59 | 62 | ||
| Expected investments | 3 | 1 | 7 | ||
| Economic uncertainty felt** | 12 | 8 | 7 | 10 | 15 |
- * Average since 1989 for the composite indicator and since 1988 for the balances of opinion, except general outlook (June 2000) and uncertainty (April 2021)
- ** Balance of opinion not seasonally adjusted
- Source: INSEE, monthly business survey in services.
The business climate has weakened again in accommodation and food services and has fallen back in road freight transport
In October 2022, in accommodation and food services, the business climate indicator has declined again but remains above its average. In particular, the forward-looking balances on the general and personal business outlook have decreased again, as well as the one on expected demand.
In road freight transport, the business climate has also deteriorated and comes close to its average level. In particular, the balance on expected demand has decreased very sharply.
In professional, scientific and technical activities, the business climate indicator has decreased slightly but remains above its average. In particular, the balance on the general business outlook has decreased and reaches its lowest level since April 2021.
In information-communication, the business climate indicator is stable, above its average. The balances on past activity and employment have increased whereas those on expected activity and demand have decreased.
In real estate activities and in administrative and support services, the business climate has improved and stands above its average. In particular, the forward-looking balances on activity and expected demand have improved.
tableauBusiness climate composite indicator and balances of opinion by sub-sector in services
| Aggregated classification (NA 2008) at level A21 | Mean* | July 2022 | Aug. 2022 | Sep. 2022 | Oct. 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Road freight transport (8 %) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 100 | 100 | 103 | 101 |
| Past activity | -5 | 7 | 5 | -2 | 0 |
| Expected activity | -6 | -9 | -3 | -6 | -2 |
| Expected demand | -8 | -14 | -17 | -1 | -20 |
| Past employment | -5 | -12 | -12 | -5 | 2 |
| Expected employment | -7 | -3 | -4 | -6 | -2 |
| General outlook | -18 | -14 | -17 | -13 | -12 |
| Accommodation and food service activities (11 %) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 117 | 114 | 106 | 104 |
| Past activity | -7 | 28 | 23 | 28 | 28 |
| Expected activity | -8 | 9 | 10 | -2 | -3 |
| Expected demand | -9 | 8 | 1 | -5 | -11 |
| Past employment | -5 | 7 | 0 | 11 | 10 |
| Expected employment | -6 | 6 | -3 | 0 | -4 |
| General outlook | -14 | 20 | 11 | -15 | -17 |
| Information and communication (26 %) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 107 | 108 | 105 | 105 |
| Past activity | 7 | 17 | 19 | 9 | 12 |
| Expected activity | 9 | 16 | 18 | 11 | 6 |
| Expected demand | 9 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 7 |
| Past employment | 6 | 23 | 19 | 9 | 21 |
| Expected employment | 10 | 21 | 27 | 17 | 18 |
| General outlook | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Real estate activities (11 %) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 105 | 106 | 102 | 105 |
| Past activity | 7 | 16 | 17 | 17 | 9 |
| Expected activity | 6 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 9 |
| Expected demand | 2 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 8 |
| Past employment | 3 | -1 | 5 | 1 | 4 |
| Expected employment | 3 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 10 |
| General outlook | -4 | -4 | 0 | -5 | -4 |
| Professionnel, scientific and technical activities (24 %) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 107 | 108 | 107 | 106 |
| Past activity | -1 | 4 | 9 | -1 | -1 |
| Expected activity | -2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
| Expected demand | -5 | -1 | -2 | 1 | 3 |
| Past employment | 1 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| Expected employment | 1 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 2 |
| General outlook | -8 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -3 |
| Administrative and support service activities (18 %) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 101 | 100 | 101 | 104 |
| Past activity | 5 | 16 | 13 | 2 | 11 |
| Expected activity | 5 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 7 |
| Expected demand | 3 | 2 | -1 | 3 | 6 |
| Past employment | 8 | 9 | -5 | -6 | 15 |
| Expected employment | 7 | -15 | -4 | 15 | 13 |
| General outlook | -3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 |
- The figures in parentheses indicate the weights used to aggregate the sub-sector balances of opinion.
- *Composite indicator: average since 1989 (2006 for road transport); balances of opinion: average since 1988, except general outlook since June 2000 (2006 for road transport)
- Source: INSEE, monthly business survey in services.
Revision
The business climate indicator in services of September 2022 has not been revised (after rounding).
For further information
The composite indicators of business climate presented here are estimated independently of one another. Thus, that of the whole services cannot be deduced from the others. The same balances of opinion are included into their calculations, but they are not assigned the same weightings. Also, the indicators are scaled to have a long-run average of 100 and a standard deviation of 10. The climate series do not have the same historical beginning, so their standardisation differs slightly. Discrepancies may therefore appear from time to time.
For the three-modality questions, a balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the weighted percentage of “increase” responses and the weighted percentage of “decrease” responses.
Since the definitive data of April 2020, the way of correcting mode of non-response has been modified. The usual method was to fill in missing answers by carrying on past answers from non-responding companies. The results are now computed on the sole basis of responding companies.
The responses to this survey were collected between 27 September and 17 October 2022.
Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of the web page of this publication.
Next issue: 24 November 2022 at 8:45 am.
Documentation
Changes to business tendency surveys – October 2021 (pdf,181 Ko)
Abbreviated methodology (in French) (pdf,193 Ko)
Pour en savoir plus
The composite indicators of business climate presented here are estimated independently of one another. Thus, that of the whole services cannot be deduced from the others. The same balances of opinion are included into their calculations, but they are not assigned the same weightings. Also, the indicators are scaled to have a long-run average of 100 and a standard deviation of 10. The climate series do not have the same historical beginning, so their standardisation differs slightly. Discrepancies may therefore appear from time to time.
For the three-modality questions, a balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the weighted percentage of “increase” responses and the weighted percentage of “decrease” responses.
Since the definitive data of April 2020, the way of correcting mode of non-response has been modified. The usual method was to fill in missing answers by carrying on past answers from non-responding companies. The results are now computed on the sole basis of responding companies.
The responses to this survey were collected between 27 September and 17 October 2022.
Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of the web page of this publication.
Next issue: 24 November 2022 at 8:45 am.