Informations Rapides ·
25 August 2022 · n° 217
In August 2022, the business climate is virtually stable in services Monthly survey of services - August 2022
According to the business managers surveyed in August 2022, the business climate is virtually stable in services. At 106, the business climate indicator that synthesizes remains above its long-term average (100).
Modified version on 26 September 2022 (correction of the series on the table: Economic outlook in the services sector)
According to the business managers surveyed in August 2022, the business climate is virtually stable in services. At 106, the business climate indicator that synthesizes remains above its long-term average (100).
tableauBusiness climate composite indicator
| Business climate composite indicator | |
|---|---|
| 2022-08 | 106.5 |
| 2022-07 | 106.7 |
| 2022-06 | 107.7 |
| 2022-05 | 109.0 |
| 2022-04 | 108.2 |
| 2022-03 | 108.5 |
| 2022-02 | 111.9 |
| 2022-01 | 105.4 |
| 2021-12 | 107.1 |
| 2021-11 | 113.8 |
| 2021-10 | 112.6 |
| 2021-09 | 109.7 |
| 2021-08 | 108.3 |
| 2021-07 | 110.7 |
| 2021-06 | 111.6 |
| 2021-05 | 106.2 |
| 2021-04 | 91.3 |
| 2021-03 | 93.6 |
| 2021-02 | 88.2 |
| 2021-01 | 91.1 |
| 2020-12 | 89.7 |
| 2020-11 | 77.6 |
| 2020-10 | 88.5 |
| 2020-09 | 94.1 |
| 2020-08 | 93.3 |
| 2020-07 | 88.5 |
| 2020-06 | 77.7 |
| 2020-05 | 51.2 |
| 2020-04 | 41.1 |
| 2020-03 | 92.6 |
| 2020-02 | 105.8 |
| 2020-01 | 105.9 |
| 2019-12 | 106.3 |
| 2019-11 | 106.0 |
| 2019-10 | 105.6 |
| 2019-09 | 105.4 |
| 2019-08 | 104.8 |
| 2019-07 | 104.9 |
| 2019-06 | 105.6 |
| 2019-05 | 105.3 |
| 2019-04 | 105.3 |
| 2019-03 | 104.5 |
| 2019-02 | 103.5 |
| 2019-01 | 103.4 |
| 2018-12 | 101.9 |
| 2018-11 | 103.6 |
| 2018-10 | 103.1 |
| 2018-09 | 104.3 |
| 2018-08 | 103.8 |
| 2018-07 | 104.3 |
| 2018-06 | 104.4 |
| 2018-05 | 103.9 |
| 2018-04 | 105.7 |
| 2018-03 | 106.5 |
| 2018-02 | 106.4 |
| 2018-01 | 107.4 |
| 2017-12 | 108.3 |
| 2017-11 | 107.1 |
| 2017-10 | 106.5 |
| 2017-09 | 106.3 |
| 2017-08 | 105.9 |
| 2017-07 | 103.7 |
| 2017-06 | 103.2 |
| 2017-05 | 102.5 |
| 2017-04 | 103.0 |
| 2017-03 | 103.1 |
| 2017-02 | 102.7 |
| 2017-01 | 101.6 |
| 2016-12 | 103.4 |
| 2016-11 | 100.8 |
| 2016-10 | 100.7 |
| 2016-09 | 100.7 |
| 2016-08 | 100.1 |
| 2016-07 | 100.4 |
| 2016-06 | 99.1 |
| 2016-05 | 100.7 |
| 2016-04 | 98.4 |
| 2016-03 | 99.5 |
| 2016-02 | 99.9 |
| 2016-01 | 100.0 |
| 2015-12 | 97.1 |
| 2015-11 | 99.3 |
| 2015-10 | 99.5 |
| 2015-09 | 97.6 |
| 2015-08 | 98.7 |
| 2015-07 | 97.6 |
| 2015-06 | 96.9 |
| 2015-05 | 95.5 |
| 2015-04 | 94.1 |
| 2015-03 | 92.6 |
| 2015-02 | 91.7 |
| 2015-01 | 91.4 |
| 2014-12 | 91.6 |
| 2014-11 | 91.5 |
| 2014-10 | 91.6 |
| 2014-09 | 91.3 |
| 2014-08 | 91.9 |
| 2014-07 | 92.8 |
| 2014-06 | 92.5 |
| 2014-05 | 92.5 |
| 2014-04 | 93.5 |
| 2014-03 | 93.2 |
| 2014-02 | 92.4 |
| 2014-01 | 92.5 |
| 2013-12 | 91.2 |
| 2013-11 | 92.6 |
| 2013-10 | 91.9 |
| 2013-09 | 92.5 |
| 2013-08 | 88.9 |
| 2013-07 | 87.0 |
| 2013-06 | 86.5 |
| 2013-05 | 85.3 |
| 2013-04 | 83.9 |
| 2013-03 | 84.8 |
| 2013-02 | 87.6 |
| 2013-01 | 88.7 |
| 2012-12 | 87.7 |
| 2012-11 | 86.1 |
| 2012-10 | 86.8 |
| 2012-09 | 87.9 |
| 2012-08 | 88.1 |
| 2012-07 | 90.2 |
| 2012-06 | 90.5 |
| 2012-05 | 92.5 |
| 2012-04 | 96.0 |
| 2012-03 | 94.0 |
| 2012-02 | 92.7 |
| 2012-01 | 93.3 |
| 2011-12 | 95.2 |
| 2011-11 | 95.5 |
| 2011-10 | 97.6 |
| 2011-09 | 98.7 |
| 2011-08 | 100.8 |
| 2011-07 | 105.1 |
| 2011-06 | 107.1 |
| 2011-05 | 107.6 |
| 2011-04 | 108.9 |
| 2011-03 | 110.2 |
| 2011-02 | 109.0 |
| 2011-01 | 106.9 |
| 2010-12 | 106.7 |
| 2010-11 | 104.7 |
| 2010-10 | 102.8 |
| 2010-09 | 101.6 |
| 2010-08 | 100.6 |
| 2010-07 | 99.1 |
| 2010-06 | 98.4 |
| 2010-05 | 99.3 |
| 2010-04 | 97.7 |
| 2010-03 | 94.6 |
| 2010-02 | 94.4 |
| 2010-01 | 94.2 |
| 2009-12 | 92.8 |
| 2009-11 | 92.3 |
| 2009-10 | 90.9 |
| 2009-09 | 87.9 |
| 2009-08 | 84.7 |
| 2009-07 | 82.2 |
| 2009-06 | 78.6 |
| 2009-05 | 74.1 |
| 2009-04 | 70.2 |
| 2009-03 | 70.1 |
| 2009-02 | 75.1 |
| 2009-01 | 76.2 |
| 2008-12 | 78.7 |
| 2008-11 | 81.8 |
| 2008-10 | 85.7 |
| 2008-09 | 94.0 |
| 2008-08 | 95.9 |
| 2008-07 | 97.4 |
| 2008-06 | 101.6 |
| 2008-05 | 104.6 |
| 2008-04 | 107.0 |
| 2008-03 | 108.5 |
| 2008-02 | 108.5 |
| 2008-01 | 110.2 |
| 2007-12 | 108.9 |
| 2007-11 | 110.0 |
| 2007-10 | 109.9 |
| 2007-09 | 111.2 |
| 2007-08 | 112.0 |
| 2007-07 | 112.8 |
| 2007-06 | 112.2 |
| 2007-05 | 112.5 |
| 2007-04 | 112.7 |
| 2007-03 | 113.0 |
| 2007-02 | 112.0 |
| 2007-01 | 110.6 |
| 2006-12 | 111.2 |
| 2006-11 | 112.7 |
| 2006-10 | 110.6 |
| 2006-09 | 110.4 |
| 2006-08 | 110.2 |
| 2006-07 | 110.1 |
| 2006-06 | 109.0 |
| 2006-05 | 110.3 |
| 2006-04 | 107.7 |
| 2006-03 | 107.5 |
| 2006-02 | 106.2 |
| 2006-01 | 108.5 |
| 2005-12 | 106.6 |
| 2005-11 | 106.3 |
| 2005-10 | 108.3 |
| 2005-09 | 106.9 |
| 2005-08 | 107.2 |
| 2005-07 | 107.6 |
| 2005-06 | 108.2 |
| 2005-05 | 106.0 |
| 2005-04 | 107.8 |
| 2005-03 | 108.1 |
| 2005-02 | 106.2 |
| 2005-01 | 106.4 |
graphiqueBusiness climate composite indicator
- Source: INSEE
The business managers are slightly more optimistic about their activity prospects
In August 2022, the business managers in services are slightly more optimistic than in the previous month about their activity prospects: the balances of opinion related to the general business outlook for the sector and to the personal business outlook have both improved very slightly, and remain above their averages. The balance about expected demand has decreased slightly. Despite this third decline in a row, it remains above its average. At the same time, the balance on economic uncertainty has decreased slightly.
The balance of opinion on activity over the past three months is stable, well above its average.
The balances of opinion on the recent and expected change in selling prices have edged down but remain at very high levels.
tableauExpected prices in services
| Expected prices | |
|---|---|
| 2022-08 | 10.4 |
| 2022-07 | 12.4 |
| 2022-06 | 11.0 |
| 2022-05 | 10.5 |
| 2022-04 | 12.1 |
| 2022-03 | 7.3 |
| 2022-02 | 9.0 |
| 2022-01 | 8.0 |
| 2021-12 | 5.5 |
| 2021-11 | 6.6 |
| 2021-10 | 2.9 |
| 2021-09 | 1.8 |
| 2021-08 | 4.0 |
| 2021-07 | 5.2 |
| 2021-06 | 0.8 |
| 2021-05 | -0.6 |
| 2021-04 | -8.1 |
| 2021-03 | -8.0 |
| 2021-02 | -10.9 |
| 2021-01 | -9.4 |
| 2020-12 | -8.1 |
| 2020-11 | -12.7 |
| 2020-10 | -10.3 |
| 2020-09 | -4.8 |
| 2020-08 | -5.4 |
| 2020-07 | -7.0 |
| 2020-06 | -12.3 |
| 2020-05 | -22.6 |
| 2020-04 | -22.6 |
| 2020-03 | -3.7 |
| 2020-02 | 0.7 |
| 2020-01 | 0.3 |
| 2019-12 | 0.1 |
| 2019-11 | -0.2 |
| 2019-10 | 0.7 |
| 2019-09 | -2.2 |
| 2019-08 | -0.9 |
| 2019-07 | 1.7 |
| 2019-06 | 0.4 |
| 2019-05 | -1.9 |
| 2019-04 | -2.1 |
| 2019-03 | -1.3 |
| 2019-02 | -2.5 |
| 2019-01 | -2.2 |
| 2018-12 | -0.2 |
| 2018-11 | -2.4 |
| 2018-10 | -3.6 |
| 2018-09 | -2.8 |
| 2018-08 | -0.3 |
| 2018-07 | -5.3 |
| 2018-06 | -4.6 |
| 2018-05 | -2.3 |
| 2018-04 | -2.7 |
| 2018-03 | -3.5 |
| 2018-02 | -3.9 |
| 2018-01 | -2.5 |
| 2017-12 | -3.7 |
| 2017-11 | -2.6 |
| 2017-10 | -2.8 |
| 2017-09 | -2.8 |
| 2017-08 | -5.2 |
| 2017-07 | -5.7 |
| 2017-06 | -4.0 |
| 2017-05 | -5.3 |
| 2017-04 | -5.1 |
| 2017-03 | -3.8 |
| 2017-02 | -3.9 |
| 2017-01 | -6.5 |
| 2016-12 | -5.5 |
| 2016-11 | -7.7 |
| 2016-10 | -6.8 |
| 2016-09 | -4.8 |
| 2016-08 | -5.2 |
| 2016-07 | -4.7 |
| 2016-06 | -6.8 |
| 2016-05 | -6.2 |
| 2016-04 | -4.9 |
| 2016-03 | -5.1 |
| 2016-02 | -4.6 |
| 2016-01 | -8.5 |
| 2015-12 | -8.8 |
| 2015-11 | -5.8 |
| 2015-10 | -5.9 |
| 2015-09 | -7.5 |
| 2015-08 | -6.4 |
| 2015-07 | -6.9 |
| 2015-06 | -6.1 |
| 2015-05 | -6.2 |
| 2015-04 | -7.8 |
| 2015-03 | -9.8 |
| 2015-02 | -9.7 |
| 2015-01 | -11.4 |
| 2014-12 | -11.0 |
| 2014-11 | -10.3 |
| 2014-10 | -9.5 |
| 2014-09 | -10.6 |
| 2014-08 | -9.0 |
| 2014-07 | -9.2 |
| 2014-06 | -9.3 |
| 2014-05 | -9.9 |
| 2014-04 | -9.6 |
| 2014-03 | -10.8 |
| 2014-02 | -11.0 |
| 2014-01 | -8.4 |
| 2013-12 | -9.4 |
| 2013-11 | -8.4 |
| 2013-10 | -10.1 |
| 2013-09 | -10.4 |
| 2013-08 | -10.7 |
| 2013-07 | -12.3 |
| 2013-06 | -12.0 |
| 2013-05 | -12.2 |
| 2013-04 | -12.2 |
| 2013-03 | -12.0 |
| 2013-02 | -11.9 |
| 2013-01 | -9.8 |
| 2012-12 | -9.2 |
| 2012-11 | -9.5 |
| 2012-10 | -11.0 |
| 2012-09 | -7.6 |
| 2012-08 | -7.8 |
| 2012-07 | -4.3 |
| 2012-06 | -6.0 |
| 2012-05 | -5.6 |
| 2012-04 | -4.2 |
| 2012-03 | -0.7 |
| 2012-02 | -3.4 |
| 2012-01 | 0.5 |
| 2011-12 | -2.3 |
| 2011-11 | -4.3 |
| 2011-10 | -3.0 |
| 2011-09 | -1.6 |
| 2011-08 | -1.5 |
| 2011-07 | -0.3 |
| 2011-06 | 0.5 |
| 2011-05 | 5.1 |
| 2011-04 | 2.4 |
| 2011-03 | 3.5 |
| 2011-02 | 3.3 |
| 2011-01 | -0.1 |
| 2010-12 | 0.0 |
| 2010-11 | -1.1 |
| 2010-10 | -0.9 |
| 2010-09 | -3.1 |
| 2010-08 | -3.8 |
| 2010-07 | -7.7 |
| 2010-06 | -5.4 |
| 2010-05 | -5.7 |
| 2010-04 | -7.8 |
| 2010-03 | -7.5 |
| 2010-02 | -9.0 |
| 2010-01 | -8.5 |
| 2009-12 | -10.1 |
| 2009-11 | -10.1 |
| 2009-10 | -9.4 |
| 2009-09 | -12.4 |
| 2009-08 | -14.4 |
| 2009-07 | -18.5 |
| 2009-06 | -15.4 |
| 2009-05 | -17.8 |
| 2009-04 | -17.7 |
| 2009-03 | -17.1 |
| 2009-02 | -13.1 |
| 2009-01 | -13.1 |
| 2008-12 | -13.8 |
| 2008-11 | -9.6 |
| 2008-10 | -2.7 |
| 2008-09 | 0.3 |
| 2008-08 | 1.5 |
| 2008-07 | 3.4 |
| 2008-06 | 3.3 |
| 2008-05 | 3.4 |
| 2008-04 | 3.9 |
| 2008-03 | 2.6 |
| 2008-02 | 2.1 |
| 2008-01 | 2.2 |
| 2007-12 | 3.0 |
| 2007-11 | 2.8 |
| 2007-10 | 1.3 |
| 2007-09 | 2.3 |
| 2007-08 | 3.2 |
| 2007-07 | 3.4 |
| 2007-06 | 2.1 |
| 2007-05 | 2.9 |
| 2007-04 | 2.2 |
| 2007-03 | 1.5 |
| 2007-02 | 1.1 |
| 2007-01 | 1.8 |
graphiqueExpected prices in services
- Source: INSEE
Concerning employment, the balance of opinion on the change in the workforce size over the last three months has fallen back strongly and has moved below its long-term average. Conversely, the one on expected workforce size has rebounded and has moved above its own, mainly due to temporary work agencies.
tableauEconomic outlook in the services sector
| Average* | May 2022 | June 2022 | July 2022 | Aug. 2022 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Composite indicator | 100 | 109 | 108 | 107 | 106 |
| General outlook | -7 | 6 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
| Past activity | 2 | 10 | 15 | 14 | 14 |
| Expected activity | 1 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
| Expected demand | 0 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 2 |
| Past selling prices | -4 | 10 | 13 | 14 | 13 |
| Expected selling prices | -3 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 10 |
| Past employment | 2 | -2 | 7 | 8 | 0 |
| except temporary work agencies | 0 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 1 |
| Expected employment | 2 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 3 |
| except temporary work agencies | -1 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 4 |
| Economic uncertainty felt** | 13 | 8 | 10 | 8 | 7 |
- * Average since 1989 for the composite indicator and since 1988 for the balances of opinion, except general outlook (June 2000) and uncertainty (April 2021)
- ** Balance of opinion not seasonally adjusted
- Source: INSEE, monthly business survey in services.
The business climate has edged down in accommodation and food services but remains very favourable
In August 2022, in accommodation and food services, the business climate indicator has decreased for the third month in a row but remains at a high level. In particular, the balance on the general business outlook for the sector has decreased sharply but remains well above its average. The balances about the recent and expected change in the workforce size have decreased too.
In administrative and support services, the business climate indicator has decreased slightly and has returned to its long-term average. In particular, the balance on expected activity and the one on expected demand have decreased slightly. The balance on past employment has decreased sharply and has moved below its average.
In road freight transport, the business climate indicator is stable, at its average level.
In professional, scientific and technical activities, the business climate indicator is virtually stable. The balances on past and expected activity have improved, the one on expected demand is virtually stable but the balances about employment have declined.
In information-communication and in real estate activities, the business climates have improved a little and stand above their average level. In particular, the balances on general activity prospects have improved.
tableauBusiness climate composite indicator and balances of opinion by sub-sector in services
| Aggregated classification (NA 2008) at level A21 | Mean* | May 2022 | June 2022 | July 2022 | Aug. 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Road transport (8 %) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 102 | 101 | 100 | 100 |
| Past activity | -5 | 6 | 13 | 7 | 8 |
| Expected activity | -6 | -10 | -5 | -9 | -4 |
| Expected demand | -8 | -6 | -13 | -14 | -19 |
| Past employment | -5 | -2 | -10 | -12 | -9 |
| Expected employment | -7 | 0 | -9 | -3 | -4 |
| General outlook | -18 | -12 | -13 | -14 | -17 |
| Accommodation and food service activities (11 %) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 122 | 121 | 118 | 113 |
| Past activity | -7 | 32 | 34 | 28 | 23 |
| Expected activity | -8 | 9 | 7 | 9 | 9 |
| Expected demand | -9 | 20 | 22 | 8 | 2 |
| Past employment | -5 | 9 | 5 | 7 | 0 |
| Expected employment | -6 | 8 | 5 | 6 | -3 |
| General outlook | -14 | 30 | 23 | 20 | 11 |
| Information and communication (26 %) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 106 | 105 | 107 | 108 |
| Past activity | 7 | 11 | 15 | 17 | 19 |
| Expected activity | 9 | 14 | 10 | 16 | 17 |
| Expected demand | 9 | 8 | 6 | 13 | 14 |
| Past employment | 6 | 11 | 15 | 23 | 20 |
| Expected employment | 10 | 15 | 18 | 21 | 27 |
| General outlook | 0 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 |
| Real estate activities (11 %) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 106 | 104 | 105 | 106 |
| Past activity | 7 | 7 | 14 | 16 | 17 |
| Expected activity | 6 | 12 | 4 | 10 | 9 |
| Expected demand | 2 | 9 | 2 | 6 | 4 |
| Past employment | 3 | 5 | 5 | -1 | 6 |
| Expected employment | 3 | 8 | 11 | 4 | 4 |
| General outlook | -4 | 2 | -3 | -4 | 0 |
| Professional, scientific and technical activities (24 %) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 110 | 107 | 107 | 108 |
| Past activity | -1 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 9 |
| Expected activity | -2 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| Expected demand | -5 | 2 | -3 | -1 | -2 |
| Past employment | 1 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 2 |
| Expected employment | 1 | 9 | 4 | 14 | 10 |
| General outlook | -8 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 |
| Administrative and support service activities (18 %) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 107 | 109 | 101 | 100 |
| Past activity | 5 | 5 | 20 | 16 | 12 |
| Expected activity | 5 | 9 | 15 | 2 | 1 |
| Expected demand | 3 | 16 | 12 | 2 | 0 |
| Past employment | 8 | -15 | 8 | 9 | -5 |
| Expected employment | 7 | 7 | 6 | -15 | -4 |
| General outlook | -3 | 11 | 9 | 3 | 4 |
- The figures in parentheses indicate the weights used to aggregate the sub-sector balances of opinion.
- *Composite indicator: average since 1989 (2006 for road transport); balances of opinion: average since 1988, except general outlook since June 2000 (2006 for road transport)
- Source: INSEE, monthly business survey in services.
Revision
The business climate indicator in services of July 2022 has not been revised (after rounding).
For further information
The composite indicators of business climate presented here are estimated independently of one another. Thus, that of the whole services cannot be deduced from the others. The same balances of opinion are included into their calculations, but they are not assigned the same weightings. Also, the indicators are scaled to have a long-run average of 100 and a standard deviation of 10. The climate series do not have the same historical beginning, so their standardisation differs slightly. Discrepancies may therefore appear from time to time.
For the three-modality questions, a balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the weighted percentage of “increase” responses and the weighted percentage of “decrease” responses.
Since the definitive data of April 2020, the way of correcting mode of non-response has been modified. The usual method was to fill in missing answers by carrying on past answers from non-responding companies. The results are now computed on the sole basis of responding companies.
The responses to this survey were collected between 27 July and 22 August 2022.
Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of the web page of this publication.
Next issue: 22 September 2022 at 8:45 am.
Documentation
Changes to business tendency surveys – October 2021 (pdf,181 Ko)
Abbreviated methodology (in French) (pdf,193 Ko)
Pour en savoir plus
The composite indicators of business climate presented here are estimated independently of one another. Thus, that of the whole services cannot be deduced from the others. The same balances of opinion are included into their calculations, but they are not assigned the same weightings. Also, the indicators are scaled to have a long-run average of 100 and a standard deviation of 10. The climate series do not have the same historical beginning, so their standardisation differs slightly. Discrepancies may therefore appear from time to time.
For the three-modality questions, a balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the weighted percentage of “increase” responses and the weighted percentage of “decrease” responses.
Since the definitive data of April 2020, the way of correcting mode of non-response has been modified. The usual method was to fill in missing answers by carrying on past answers from non-responding companies. The results are now computed on the sole basis of responding companies.
The responses to this survey were collected between 27 July and 22 August 2022.
Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of the web page of this publication.
Next issue: 22 September 2022 at 8:45 am.