Informations Rapides ·
26 July 2022 · n° 195
In July 2022, the opinion of the business managers in civil engineering on theirs
activity prospects has deteriorated compared to April Quaterly survey of public works - July 2022
In July 2022, the business managers in civil engineering are more pessimistic than in April about their expected activity for the next three months. They also make a less positive assessment of the level of their order books. However, they are more positive than in April about the evolution of their recent activity.
In July 2022, the business managers in civil engineering are more pessimistic than in April about their expected activity for the next three months. They also make a less positive assessment of the level of their order books. However, they are more positive than in April about the evolution of their recent activity.
Business managers are more pessimistic than in April about their expected activity
In July 2022, less business managers than in April are expecting an increase in their activity for the next three months: the corresponding balance of opinion has fallen for the third consecutive quarter and has deviated from its long-term average. In detail, the balances of opinion concerning incoming activity for the private sector and the public sector have decreased slightly. Both remain below their long-term average.
tableauPublic works economic outlook
| Mean.* | Oct. 21 | Jan. 22 | Apr. 22 | Jul. 22 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Past activity | -5 | -11 | -3 | 6 | 10 |
| - public-sector project | -11 | -17 | -14 | -5 | -2 |
| - private-sector project | -9 | -3 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Expected activity | -12 | 12 | 0 | -16 | -23 |
| - public-sector project | -15 | 12 | -11 | -24 | -23 |
| - private-sector project | -14 | 16 | 10 | -24 | -22 |
| Opinion on order books | -24 | -8 | -13 | -7 | -11 |
| Obstacles to production increase because of workforce shortage (in %) | 17 | 37 | 44 | 36 | 41 |
| Expected workforce | -12 | 15 | 16 | 12 | -5 |
| Economic uncertainty felt | 24 | 17 | 13 | 46 | 34 |
- Note: the balances of opinion by costumer may differ from the balance of the whole, because sometimes the firms don't distinguish public-sector project and private-sector project.
- * Mean since January 1981 and since April 2021 for the balances of opinion on the economic uncertainty felt.
- NA: not available
- Source: French business survey, building crafts sector – INSEE and FNTP
tableauActivity tendency in civil engineering
| Past activity | Expected activity | |
|---|---|---|
| 2022-Q3 | 9.5 | -22.7 |
| 2022-Q2 | 5.8 | -16.2 |
| 2022-Q1 | -3.4 | 0.0 |
| 2021-Q4 | -11.0 | 11.8 |
| 2021-Q3 | 19.5 | 1.3 |
| 2021-Q2 | -7.2 | -10.2 |
| 2021-Q1 | -7.4 | -19.0 |
| 2020-Q4 | -4.0 | -25.2 |
| 2020-Q3 | -86.5 | 14.3 |
| 2020-Q2 | NaN | NaN |
| 2020-Q1 | 20.6 | -4.0 |
| 2019-Q4 | 23.0 | 13.8 |
| 2019-Q3 | 32.5 | 16.3 |
| 2019-Q2 | 39.1 | 22.0 |
| 2019-Q1 | 34.1 | 26.0 |
| 2018-Q4 | 38.4 | 28.6 |
| 2018-Q3 | 31.5 | 26.3 |
| 2018-Q2 | 29.4 | 32.3 |
| 2018-Q1 | 37.1 | 22.7 |
| 2017-Q4 | 29.3 | 32.5 |
| 2017-Q3 | 37.4 | 27.5 |
| 2017-Q2 | 28.8 | 19.5 |
| 2017-Q1 | 11.6 | 3.3 |
| 2016-Q4 | 9.4 | -5.5 |
| 2016-Q3 | -5.6 | -1.0 |
| 2016-Q2 | -16.8 | -15.4 |
| 2016-Q1 | -18.5 | -15.6 |
| 2015-Q4 | -37.5 | -15.0 |
| 2015-Q3 | -41.0 | -31.7 |
| 2015-Q2 | -50.2 | -43.5 |
| 2015-Q1 | -59.9 | -42.3 |
| 2014-Q4 | -60.3 | -54.5 |
| 2014-Q3 | -45.6 | -48.4 |
| 2014-Q2 | 4.2 | -30.4 |
| 2014-Q1 | -4.2 | -25.6 |
| 2013-Q4 | 3.3 | -15.6 |
| 2013-Q3 | -7.4 | -11.9 |
| 2013-Q2 | -18.4 | -13.5 |
| 2013-Q1 | -11.3 | -13.3 |
| 2012-Q4 | -9.8 | -26.5 |
| 2012-Q3 | -22.6 | -7.6 |
| 2012-Q2 | -12.9 | -6.8 |
| 2012-Q1 | 7.0 | -12.4 |
| 2011-Q4 | 8.6 | -4.3 |
| 2011-Q3 | 26.5 | 0.1 |
| 2011-Q2 | 36.8 | 2.3 |
| 2011-Q1 | -32.5 | 0.0 |
| 2010-Q4 | -7.9 | -17.9 |
| 2010-Q3 | -15.9 | -23.9 |
| 2010-Q2 | -33.7 | -20.5 |
| 2010-Q1 | -23.1 | -16.7 |
| 2009-Q4 | -33.3 | -16.1 |
| 2009-Q3 | -50.5 | -34.0 |
| 2009-Q2 | -48.8 | -52.0 |
| 2009-Q1 | -55.3 | -50.6 |
| 2008-Q4 | -30.5 | -47.6 |
| 2008-Q3 | -10.8 | -26.0 |
| 2008-Q2 | 16.3 | -16.0 |
| 2008-Q1 | 20.1 | 2.7 |
| 2007-Q4 | 22.8 | 14.6 |
| 2007-Q3 | 36.2 | 13.9 |
| 2007-Q2 | 39.7 | 21.5 |
| 2007-Q1 | 39.0 | 16.9 |
- Data for the second quarter of 2020 are not available, the response rate to this survey was greatly affected in April in the context of the health crisis.
graphiqueActivity tendency in civil engineering
- Data for the second quarter of 2020 are not available, the response rate to this survey was greatly affected in April in the context of the health crisis.
- Sources: FNTP and INSEE.
Conversely, the opinion of business managers on the evolution of their activity over the past three months has improved. The related balance of opinion has increased for the third consecutive quarter and stays above its long-term average. In detail, the balance related to past activity for the public sector have improved slightly again while the one regarding past activity for the private sector is virtually stable. Both of them are above their respective average.
Overall, far fewer business managers than in the previous quarter find it difficult for them to predict the development in their business situation: the balance of opinion on economic uncertainty has folded back clearly in July 2022.
Business managers are more negative than in April on the level of their order books
In July 2022, somewhat more business managers than in April consider that the level of their order books is smaller than usual for the season: the corresponding balance of opinion has folded back but stays well above its long-term average.
The lack of manpower is getting a little more acute
In July 2022, the difficulties due to the lack of manpower are more often mentioned than in April: 41% of companies have reported some. This proportion stays much greater than its long-term average (17%).
Employment prospects are falling sharply
In July 2022, far fewer business managers than in April are planning to increase their workforce over the next three months. The corresponding balance has shrunk very clearly, although it remains above its long-term average.
For further information
A balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentage of “increase” responses and the percentage of “decrease” responses.
The responses to this survey have been collected between 22 June 2022 and 18 July 2022.
Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of this page.
Next issue: 25 October 2022 at 12:00 am
Documentation
Abbreviated methodology (pdf,123 Ko)
Pour en savoir plus
A balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentage of “increase” responses and the percentage of “decrease” responses.
The responses to this survey have been collected between 22 June 2022 and 18 July 2022.
Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of this page.
Next issue: 25 October 2022 at 12:00 am