Informations Rapides · 21 July 2022 · n° 190

In July 2022, the business climate in wholesale trade is stable Bi-monthly survey of wholesaling - July 2022

According to the business managers surveyed in July 2022, the bimonthly business climate in wholesale trade has stabilized with respect to May. The composite indicator has maintained at 101, very slightly above its average (100). Admittedly, the fall in the balance of opinion on the overall volume of sales has dragged down the business climate indicator. However, the recovery of the balance of opinion on the deliveries received from abroad has contributed positively to its evolution.

The balance of opinion of wholesalers regarding the volume of merchandise received over the past two months is stable for the second two-month period in a row, at a level very close to its average. Besides, the balance of opinion specific to the merchandise received from abroad has bounced back and has surpassed again its average level. This balance has improved in all sub-sectors of wholesale trade, except in the wholesale trade of information and communication equipment, where it is stable.

The balance of opinion of wholesalers on the volume of their past sales has went on with its decline started in March. In July, it has shrunk distinctly and remains barely above its average. This balance has diminished in all sub-sectors of the wholesale trade, except in the wholesale trade of food products and beverages and in the one of domestic goods. In contrast, the balance on the volume of recent sales made abroad has slightly recovered and has moved above its average. The only sub-sectors where this balance has fallen are the wholesale trade of raw agricultural products and the one of food products and beverages.

In July 2022, the balance of opinion of wholesalers on their ordering intentions has somewhat bounced back after three consecutive two-month periods of decline. Besides, the balance of opinion related to the intentions of orders to be made abroad is stable, after having receded during the whole first half of 2022. Both balances of opinion related to ordering intentions remain higher than their respective average.

However, after a drop between January and March followed by a moderate decline from March to May, the balance of opinion on the general business outlook has fallen sharply in July and lies far below its long-term average. This dip has spared no sub-sector of the wholesale trade.

The balances of opinion on the past and expected change in the selling prices of wholesalers have withdrawn, after having reached in May levels unseen since 1982. They both remain at high levels, far above their respective average.

The balance of opinion on the change in workforce size over the last two months has folded back slightly, although it remains much higher than its average. The balance on the expected change in workforce size has diminished again; it remains also much higher than its average, but has further moved away from the level reached in March 2022, unprecedented since the beginning of this series (1979).

The balance of opinion related to the level of inventories has jumped to its highest level since November 2008: wholesalers are much more numerous than in May to consider that the level of their stocks is above average. This increase is particularly significant in the wholesale trade of information and communication equipment, and extends to all other sub-sectors of wholesale trade apart from the domestic goods.

Finally, the balance of wholesalers related to their cash position is almost stable at the level of its average, after a setback in May. This balance had reached in July 2021 its highest historical level.

The business climate in wholesale trade of May 2022 has not been updated.