Informations Rapides ·
16 December 2021 · n° 326
In December 2021, the business climate has deteriorated in services Monthly survey of services - December 2021
According to the business managers surveyed in December 2021, the business climate has deteriorated sharply in services. At 108, the business climate indicator that synthesizes it has lost six points but remains well above its long-term average (100).
According to the business managers surveyed in December 2021, the business climate has deteriorated sharply in services. At 108, the business climate indicator that synthesizes it has lost six points but remains well above its long-term average (100).
tableauBusiness climate composite indicator
| Business climate composite indicator | |
|---|---|
| 2021-12 | 107.8 |
| 2021-11 | 114.0 |
| 2021-10 | 112.8 |
| 2021-09 | 109.9 |
| 2021-08 | 108.5 |
| 2021-07 | 110.9 |
| 2021-06 | 111.7 |
| 2021-05 | 106.3 |
| 2021-04 | 91.6 |
| 2021-03 | 93.8 |
| 2021-02 | 88.5 |
| 2021-01 | 91.4 |
| 2020-12 | 90.0 |
| 2020-11 | 78.0 |
| 2020-10 | 88.8 |
| 2020-09 | 94.4 |
| 2020-08 | 93.6 |
| 2020-07 | 88.8 |
| 2020-06 | 78.0 |
| 2020-05 | 51.7 |
| 2020-04 | 41.8 |
| 2020-03 | 93.0 |
| 2020-02 | 106.0 |
| 2020-01 | 106.2 |
| 2019-12 | 106.5 |
| 2019-11 | 106.2 |
| 2019-10 | 105.8 |
| 2019-09 | 105.6 |
| 2019-08 | 105.1 |
| 2019-07 | 105.1 |
| 2019-06 | 105.8 |
| 2019-05 | 105.5 |
| 2019-04 | 105.5 |
| 2019-03 | 104.8 |
| 2019-02 | 103.7 |
| 2019-01 | 103.7 |
| 2018-12 | 102.1 |
| 2018-11 | 103.8 |
| 2018-10 | 103.3 |
| 2018-09 | 104.5 |
| 2018-08 | 104.1 |
| 2018-07 | 104.5 |
| 2018-06 | 104.6 |
| 2018-05 | 104.2 |
| 2018-04 | 105.9 |
| 2018-03 | 106.7 |
| 2018-02 | 106.6 |
| 2018-01 | 107.6 |
| 2017-12 | 108.5 |
| 2017-11 | 107.3 |
| 2017-10 | 106.7 |
| 2017-09 | 106.5 |
| 2017-08 | 106.0 |
| 2017-07 | 103.9 |
| 2017-06 | 103.5 |
| 2017-05 | 102.7 |
| 2017-04 | 103.2 |
| 2017-03 | 103.3 |
| 2017-02 | 102.9 |
| 2017-01 | 101.8 |
| 2016-12 | 103.6 |
| 2016-11 | 101.0 |
| 2016-10 | 100.9 |
| 2016-09 | 101.0 |
| 2016-08 | 100.4 |
| 2016-07 | 100.6 |
| 2016-06 | 99.3 |
| 2016-05 | 100.9 |
| 2016-04 | 98.6 |
| 2016-03 | 99.7 |
| 2016-02 | 100.1 |
| 2016-01 | 100.2 |
| 2015-12 | 97.4 |
| 2015-11 | 99.5 |
| 2015-10 | 99.8 |
| 2015-09 | 97.8 |
| 2015-08 | 98.9 |
| 2015-07 | 97.8 |
| 2015-06 | 97.2 |
| 2015-05 | 95.8 |
| 2015-04 | 94.3 |
| 2015-03 | 92.8 |
| 2015-02 | 92.0 |
| 2015-01 | 91.7 |
| 2014-12 | 91.8 |
| 2014-11 | 91.8 |
| 2014-10 | 91.8 |
| 2014-09 | 91.6 |
| 2014-08 | 92.1 |
| 2014-07 | 93.1 |
| 2014-06 | 92.8 |
| 2014-05 | 92.7 |
| 2014-04 | 93.8 |
| 2014-03 | 93.5 |
| 2014-02 | 92.6 |
| 2014-01 | 92.8 |
| 2013-12 | 91.5 |
| 2013-11 | 92.9 |
| 2013-10 | 92.2 |
| 2013-09 | 92.7 |
| 2013-08 | 89.2 |
| 2013-07 | 87.3 |
| 2013-06 | 86.8 |
| 2013-05 | 85.6 |
| 2013-04 | 84.3 |
| 2013-03 | 85.1 |
| 2013-02 | 87.8 |
| 2013-01 | 89.0 |
| 2012-12 | 88.0 |
| 2012-11 | 86.4 |
| 2012-10 | 87.0 |
| 2012-09 | 88.2 |
| 2012-08 | 88.4 |
| 2012-07 | 90.5 |
| 2012-06 | 90.8 |
| 2012-05 | 92.8 |
| 2012-04 | 96.3 |
| 2012-03 | 94.3 |
| 2012-02 | 93.0 |
| 2012-01 | 93.6 |
| 2011-12 | 95.5 |
| 2011-11 | 95.8 |
| 2011-10 | 97.9 |
| 2011-09 | 98.9 |
| 2011-08 | 101.0 |
| 2011-07 | 105.3 |
| 2011-06 | 107.3 |
| 2011-05 | 107.8 |
| 2011-04 | 109.1 |
| 2011-03 | 110.4 |
| 2011-02 | 109.2 |
| 2011-01 | 107.1 |
| 2010-12 | 106.9 |
| 2010-11 | 104.9 |
| 2010-10 | 103.0 |
| 2010-09 | 101.8 |
| 2010-08 | 100.9 |
| 2010-07 | 99.4 |
| 2010-06 | 98.6 |
| 2010-05 | 99.5 |
| 2010-04 | 97.9 |
| 2010-03 | 94.8 |
| 2010-02 | 94.6 |
| 2010-01 | 94.4 |
| 2009-12 | 93.0 |
| 2009-11 | 92.5 |
| 2009-10 | 91.2 |
| 2009-09 | 88.1 |
| 2009-08 | 85.0 |
| 2009-07 | 82.5 |
| 2009-06 | 78.9 |
| 2009-05 | 74.4 |
| 2009-04 | 70.6 |
| 2009-03 | 70.4 |
| 2009-02 | 75.4 |
| 2009-01 | 76.6 |
| 2008-12 | 79.1 |
| 2008-11 | 82.1 |
| 2008-10 | 86.1 |
| 2008-09 | 94.3 |
| 2008-08 | 96.2 |
| 2008-07 | 97.7 |
| 2008-06 | 101.9 |
| 2008-05 | 104.9 |
| 2008-04 | 107.3 |
| 2008-03 | 108.7 |
| 2008-02 | 108.7 |
| 2008-01 | 110.4 |
| 2007-12 | 109.1 |
| 2007-11 | 110.2 |
| 2007-10 | 110.1 |
| 2007-09 | 111.4 |
| 2007-08 | 112.1 |
| 2007-07 | 113.0 |
| 2007-06 | 112.4 |
| 2007-05 | 112.7 |
| 2007-04 | 112.8 |
| 2007-03 | 113.1 |
| 2007-02 | 112.2 |
| 2007-01 | 110.8 |
| 2006-12 | 111.4 |
| 2006-11 | 112.9 |
| 2006-10 | 110.8 |
| 2006-09 | 110.6 |
| 2006-08 | 110.4 |
| 2006-07 | 110.3 |
| 2006-06 | 109.1 |
| 2006-05 | 110.4 |
| 2006-04 | 107.9 |
| 2006-03 | 107.6 |
| 2006-02 | 106.4 |
| 2006-01 | 108.6 |
| 2005-12 | 106.8 |
| 2005-11 | 106.5 |
| 2005-10 | 108.5 |
| 2005-09 | 107.1 |
| 2005-08 | 107.4 |
| 2005-07 | 107.8 |
| 2005-06 | 108.4 |
| 2005-05 | 106.2 |
| 2005-04 | 108.0 |
| 2005-03 | 108.3 |
| 2005-02 | 106.4 |
| 2005-01 | 106.6 |
graphiqueBusiness climate composite indicator
- Source: INSEE
Business managers’ expectations have darkened
In December 2021, the business managers are much less optimistic than in the previous months about their activity prospects. The balances of opinion on the general outlook for the sector activity and on expected activity have decreased strongly; the one on expected demand for the next three months has declined again, much more sharply than in the previous month. However, these three balances remain above their respective average. The one on economic uncertainty felt is virtually stable.
The balance of opinion on activity over the past three months is stable at a high level, well above its average.
Fewer business managers than in the previous month have reported an increase in their sales prices over the last three months: the balance of opinion on the recent change in selling prices has decreased sharply. The one on the expected change in selling prices is virtually stable. Both stand above their average.
tableauExpected prices in services
| Expected prices | |
|---|---|
| 2021-12 | 5.6 |
| 2021-11 | 6.6 |
| 2021-10 | 2.9 |
| 2021-09 | 1.8 |
| 2021-08 | 4.0 |
| 2021-07 | 5.2 |
| 2021-06 | 0.8 |
| 2021-05 | -0.6 |
| 2021-04 | -8.1 |
| 2021-03 | -8.0 |
| 2021-02 | -10.9 |
| 2021-01 | -9.4 |
| 2020-12 | -8.1 |
| 2020-11 | -12.7 |
| 2020-10 | -10.3 |
| 2020-09 | -4.8 |
| 2020-08 | -5.4 |
| 2020-07 | -7.0 |
| 2020-06 | -12.3 |
| 2020-05 | -22.6 |
| 2020-04 | -22.6 |
| 2020-03 | -3.7 |
| 2020-02 | 0.7 |
| 2020-01 | 0.3 |
| 2019-12 | 0.1 |
| 2019-11 | -0.2 |
| 2019-10 | 0.7 |
| 2019-09 | -2.2 |
| 2019-08 | -0.9 |
| 2019-07 | 1.7 |
| 2019-06 | 0.4 |
| 2019-05 | -1.9 |
| 2019-04 | -2.1 |
| 2019-03 | -1.3 |
| 2019-02 | -2.5 |
| 2019-01 | -2.2 |
| 2018-12 | -0.2 |
| 2018-11 | -2.4 |
| 2018-10 | -3.6 |
| 2018-09 | -2.8 |
| 2018-08 | -0.3 |
| 2018-07 | -5.3 |
| 2018-06 | -4.6 |
| 2018-05 | -2.3 |
| 2018-04 | -2.7 |
| 2018-03 | -3.5 |
| 2018-02 | -3.9 |
| 2018-01 | -2.5 |
| 2017-12 | -3.7 |
| 2017-11 | -2.6 |
| 2017-10 | -2.8 |
| 2017-09 | -2.8 |
| 2017-08 | -5.2 |
| 2017-07 | -5.7 |
| 2017-06 | -4.0 |
| 2017-05 | -5.3 |
| 2017-04 | -5.1 |
| 2017-03 | -3.8 |
| 2017-02 | -3.9 |
| 2017-01 | -6.5 |
| 2016-12 | -5.5 |
| 2016-11 | -7.7 |
| 2016-10 | -6.8 |
| 2016-09 | -4.8 |
| 2016-08 | -5.2 |
| 2016-07 | -4.7 |
| 2016-06 | -6.8 |
| 2016-05 | -6.2 |
| 2016-04 | -4.9 |
| 2016-03 | -5.1 |
| 2016-02 | -4.6 |
| 2016-01 | -8.5 |
| 2015-12 | -8.8 |
| 2015-11 | -5.8 |
| 2015-10 | -5.9 |
| 2015-09 | -7.5 |
| 2015-08 | -6.4 |
| 2015-07 | -6.9 |
| 2015-06 | -6.1 |
| 2015-05 | -6.2 |
| 2015-04 | -7.8 |
| 2015-03 | -9.8 |
| 2015-02 | -9.7 |
| 2015-01 | -11.4 |
| 2014-12 | -11.0 |
| 2014-11 | -10.3 |
| 2014-10 | -9.5 |
| 2014-09 | -10.6 |
| 2014-08 | -9.0 |
| 2014-07 | -9.2 |
| 2014-06 | -9.3 |
| 2014-05 | -9.9 |
| 2014-04 | -9.6 |
| 2014-03 | -10.8 |
| 2014-02 | -11.0 |
| 2014-01 | -8.4 |
| 2013-12 | -9.4 |
| 2013-11 | -8.4 |
| 2013-10 | -10.1 |
| 2013-09 | -10.4 |
| 2013-08 | -10.7 |
| 2013-07 | -12.3 |
| 2013-06 | -12.0 |
| 2013-05 | -12.2 |
| 2013-04 | -12.2 |
| 2013-03 | -12.0 |
| 2013-02 | -11.9 |
| 2013-01 | -9.8 |
| 2012-12 | -9.2 |
| 2012-11 | -9.5 |
| 2012-10 | -11.0 |
| 2012-09 | -7.6 |
| 2012-08 | -7.8 |
| 2012-07 | -4.3 |
| 2012-06 | -6.0 |
| 2012-05 | -5.6 |
| 2012-04 | -4.2 |
| 2012-03 | -0.7 |
| 2012-02 | -3.4 |
| 2012-01 | 0.5 |
| 2011-12 | -2.3 |
| 2011-11 | -4.3 |
| 2011-10 | -3.0 |
| 2011-09 | -1.6 |
| 2011-08 | -1.5 |
| 2011-07 | -0.3 |
| 2011-06 | 0.5 |
| 2011-05 | 5.1 |
| 2011-04 | 2.4 |
| 2011-03 | 3.5 |
| 2011-02 | 3.3 |
| 2011-01 | -0.1 |
| 2010-12 | 0.0 |
| 2010-11 | -1.1 |
| 2010-10 | -0.9 |
| 2010-09 | -3.1 |
| 2010-08 | -3.8 |
| 2010-07 | -7.7 |
| 2010-06 | -5.4 |
| 2010-05 | -5.7 |
| 2010-04 | -7.8 |
| 2010-03 | -7.5 |
| 2010-02 | -9.0 |
| 2010-01 | -8.5 |
| 2009-12 | -10.1 |
| 2009-11 | -10.1 |
| 2009-10 | -9.4 |
| 2009-09 | -12.4 |
| 2009-08 | -14.4 |
| 2009-07 | -18.5 |
| 2009-06 | -15.4 |
| 2009-05 | -17.8 |
| 2009-04 | -17.7 |
| 2009-03 | -17.1 |
| 2009-02 | -13.1 |
| 2009-01 | -13.1 |
| 2008-12 | -13.8 |
| 2008-11 | -9.6 |
| 2008-10 | -2.7 |
| 2008-09 | 0.3 |
| 2008-08 | 1.5 |
| 2008-07 | 3.4 |
| 2008-06 | 3.3 |
| 2008-05 | 3.4 |
| 2008-04 | 3.9 |
| 2008-03 | 2.6 |
| 2008-02 | 2.1 |
| 2008-01 | 2.2 |
| 2007-12 | 3.0 |
| 2007-11 | 2.8 |
| 2007-10 | 1.3 |
| 2007-09 | 2.3 |
| 2007-08 | 3.2 |
| 2007-07 | 3.4 |
| 2007-06 | 2.1 |
| 2007-05 | 2.9 |
| 2007-04 | 2.2 |
| 2007-03 | 1.5 |
| 2007-02 | 1.1 |
| 2007-01 | 1.8 |
graphiqueExpected prices in services
- Source: INSEE
About employment, the balance of opinion on the change in workforce size over the last three months has improved sharply again, mainly due to temporary work agencies, and stands well above its average level. Conversely, the balance on expected workforce size has decreased sharply and has almost returned to its long-term average.
tableauEconomic outlook in the services sector
| Average* | Sep. 2021 | Oct. 2021 | Nov. 2021 | Dec. 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Composite indicator | 100 | 110 | 113 | 114 | 108 |
| General outlook | -7 | 8 | 12 | 12 | 4 |
| Past activity | 1 | 11 | 13 | 17 | 17 |
| Expected activity | 1 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 3 |
| Expected demand | -1 | 10 | 15 | 13 | 5 |
| Past selling prices | -4 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 5 |
| Expected selling prices | -3 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 6 |
| Past employment | 2 | -3 | -1 | 10 | 18 |
| except temporary work agencies | 0 | -5 | 3 | 10 | 11 |
| Expected employment | 2 | 7 | 10 | 11 | 3 |
| except temporary work agencies | -1 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 1 |
| Economic uncertainty felt** | 14 | 10 | 8 | 9 | 8 |
- * Average since 1989 for the composite indicator and since 1988 for the balances of opinion, except general outlook (June 2000) and uncertainty (April 2021)
- ** Balance of opinion not seasonally adjusted
- Source: INSEE, monthly business survey in services.
The business climate has deteriorated in most of services sub-sectors
In December 2021, the business climate has deteriorated sharply in all services sub-sectors except in road freight transport and in information-communication.
The business climate indicator has decreased very strongly in accommodation and food services: standing at 98, it has even returned below its long-term average. This deterioration is mainly due to the strong decline in the balances on expected activity and expected demand. The balance on economic uncertainty felt has increased strongly too.
In real estate activities, in professional, scientific and technical activities and in administrative and support services, the business climate indicator has decreased sharply. In particular, the forward-looking balances on general and personal activity prospects have declined strongly. However, these climates remain above their average level.
In road freight transport, the business climate is virtually stable and stands well above its long-term average.
Finally, in information-communication, the business climate has improved slightly and stands well above its average level too.
tableauBusiness climate composite indicator and balances of opinion by sub-sector in services
| Aggregated classification (NA 2008) at level A21 | Mean* | Sep. 2021 | Oct. 2021 | Nov. 2021 | Dec. 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Road freight transport (8%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 112 | 112 | 114 | 113 |
| Past activity | -6 | -7 | 0 | 6 | 12 |
| Expected activity | -6 | 14 | 13 | 14 | 13 |
| Expected demand | -8 | 19 | 17 | 13 | 15 |
| Past employment | -5 | 0 | -6 | 2 | 5 |
| Expected employment | -7 | 10 | 6 | 23 | 7 |
| General outlook | -18 | 7 | 5 | 9 | 9 |
| Accommodation and food service activities (11%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 109 | 114 | 116 | 98 |
| Past activity | -8 | 29 | 31 | 37 | 33 |
| Expected activity | -8 | 5 | 6 | 6 | -24 |
| Expected demand | -10 | 0 | 9 | 12 | -16 |
| Past employment | -5 | -10 | 5 | 14 | 12 |
| Expected employment | -6 | 10 | 11 | 5 | -6 |
| General outlook | -14 | -5 | 5 | 7 | -23 |
| Information and communication (26%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 109 | 109 | 110 | 111 |
| Past activity | 7 | 9 | 14 | 20 | 18 |
| Expected activity | 9 | 14 | 8 | 13 | 15 |
| Expected demand | 9 | 10 | 13 | 17 | 18 |
| Past employment | 6 | 2 | 7 | 18 | 28 |
| Expected employment | 10 | 27 | 20 | 20 | 20 |
| General outlook | 0 | 16 | 18 | 15 | 14 |
| Real estate activities (11%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 110 | 111 | 108 | 102 |
| Past activity | 6 | 20 | 15 | 12 | 2 |
| Expected activity | 6 | 9 | 11 | 6 | 5 |
| Expected demand | 1 | 10 | 7 | 5 | 3 |
| Past employment | 3 | 17 | 5 | 17 | 10 |
| Expected employment | 2 | 2 | 12 | 4 | 1 |
| General outlook | -4 | 3 | 6 | 3 | -3 |
| Professionnel, scientific and technical activities (24%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 112 | 117 | 114 | 109 |
| Past activity | -1 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 9 |
| Expected activity | -2 | 8 | 13 | 11 | 4 |
| Expected demand | -5 | 8 | 18 | 7 | 3 |
| Past employment | 0 | 2 | 2 | 8 | -1 |
| Expected employment | 0 | 10 | 5 | 6 | 2 |
| General outlook | -9 | 6 | 12 | 13 | 5 |
| Administrative and support service activities (18%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 107 | 110 | 112 | 103 |
| Past activity | 5 | 12 | 12 | 22 | 29 |
| Expected activity | 5 | 8 | 13 | 17 | 0 |
| Expected demand | 3 | 16 | 18 | 16 | 4 |
| Past employment | 8 | -10 | -10 | 7 | 35 |
| Expected employment | 7 | 1 | 15 | 16 | 6 |
| General outlook | -4 | 10 | 18 | 15 | 3 |
- The figures in parentheses indicate the weights used to aggregate the sub-sector balances of opinion.
- *Composite indicator: average since 1989 (2006 for road transport); balances of opinion: average since 1988, except general outlook since June 2000 (2006 for road transport)
- Source: INSEE, monthly business survey in services.
For further information
For the three-modality questions, a balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentage of “increase” responses and the percentage of “decrease” responses.
Since the definitive data of April 2020, the way of correcting mode of non-response has been modified. The usual method was to fill in missing answers by carrying on past answers from non-responding companies. The results are now computed on the sole basis of responding companies.
The responses to this survey were collected between 26 November and 13 December 2021.
Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of the web page of this publication.
Next issue: 20 January 2022 at 8:45 am
Documentation
Changes to business tendency surveys – October 2021 (pdf,181 Ko)
Methodology note (in French) (pdf,275 Ko)
Abbreviated methodology (pdf,185 Ko)
Pour en savoir plus
For the three-modality questions, a balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentage of “increase” responses and the percentage of “decrease” responses.
Since the definitive data of April 2020, the way of correcting mode of non-response has been modified. The usual method was to fill in missing answers by carrying on past answers from non-responding companies. The results are now computed on the sole basis of responding companies.
The responses to this survey were collected between 26 November and 13 December 2021.
Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of the web page of this publication.
Next issue: 20 January 2022 at 8:45 am