Informations Rapides ·
26 August 2021 · n° 215
The industrial investment should recover strongly in 2021, except in the car sector Industrial investment survey - July 2021
The business managers in industry surveyed in July 2021 have estimated their investment to have fallen by 9% in nominal terms in 2020 compared to 2019. For the year 2021, they have planned a strong rebound in their investment expenditures, with a 10% rise in nominal terms, thus maintaining their April forecast. Investment in 2021 should be very dynamic in the electrical, electronic and machine equipment sector but should recede again in the car sector.
The industrial investment survey is coming to an end, in its current design, with this issue. As of October 2021 and every quarter, the business surveys of services and of manufacturing industries will in turn include questions related to investment, now qualitative and not numerical any more. The evolutions of these surveys are harmonized at the European level.
The business managers in industry surveyed in July 2021 have estimated their investment to have fallen by 9% in nominal terms in 2020 compared to 2019. For the year 2021, they have planned a strong rebound in their investment expenditures, with a 10% rise in nominal terms, thus maintaining their April forecast. Investment in 2021 should be very dynamic in the electrical, electronic and machine equipment sector but should recede again in the car sector.
tableauEstimate of the annual nominal change in investment in the manufacturing industry
| Annual nominal change in investments | |
|---|---|
| 1998 | 6 |
| 1999 | 4 |
| 2000 | 9 |
| 2001 | 2 |
| 2002 | -9 |
| 2003 | -8 |
| 2004 | 1 |
| 2005 | -4 |
| 2006 | 6 |
| 2007 | 6 |
| 2008 | 1 |
| 2009 | -21 |
| 2010 | 1 |
| 2011 | 12 |
| 2012 | 5 |
| 2013 | -5 |
| 2014 | 3 |
| 2015 | 2 |
| 2016 | 5 |
| 2017 | 5 |
| 2018 | 2 |
| 2019 | 4 |
| 2020 | -9 |
| 2021 | 10 |
- Note: From 1998 to 2020, the evolution is the value ultimately declared; for 2021 the evolution is the estimate from the current survey.
graphiqueEstimate of the annual nominal change in investment in the manufacturing industry
- Note: From 1998 to 2020, the evolution is the value ultimately declared; for 2021 the evolution is the estimate from the current survey.
- Source: INSEE - Industrial investment survey.
Investment should bounce back strongly in 2021, except in the car sector
With an overall decrease of 9% in investment estimated for 2020, the business managers in industry have increased by 3 points their April estimate, instead of by one point as in average at this time of the year since 2004.
All sectors put together, industrialists are expecting a strong recovery in investment in 2021, with a 10% growth in nominal terms. Thus, they have confirmed their April forecast, whereas they had lowered it by 2 points in average for the July surveys from 2004 to 2020.
In the electrical, electronic and machine equipment sector, companies are expecting a very swift growth in investment in 2021 (+28%), surpassing the setback of the previous year (−10%). Besides, investment should recover markedly in the agri-food industry and in the “other manufacturing” sector – textile, chemicals, pharma, metal work, and so on.
On the contrary, in the transport equipment sector, investment should recede again in 2021 after a momentous fall in 2020 (-3% after −16%). This drop is likely to be due to the car sector rather than to the manufacturing sector of other transport equipment.
tableauEstimate of the nominal annual investment growth in manufacturing industry by major sectorIn %
| NA*: (A17) et [A38] | In 2020 | In 2021 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estimate Apr.21 | Estimate July21 | Forecast Apr.21 | Forecast July21 | |
| C: Manufacturing Industry | -12 | -9 | 10 | 10 |
| (C1) Manufacture of food products and beverages | -5 | -4 | 12 | 9 |
| (C3) Electrical and electronic equipment ; machine equipment | -13 | -10 | 27 | 28 |
| (C4) Manufacture of transport equipment | -18 | -16 | 7 | -3 |
| [CL1] Motor vehicles | -13 | -9 | -2 | -14 |
| (C5) Other manufacturing | -11 | -8 | 7 | 10 |
| Total sectors C3 + C4 + C5 | -13 | -10 | 9 | 10 |
- * The codes correspond to the level of aggregation (A17) and [A38] of the "NA" aggregate classification based on NAF rev.2.
- How to read this table: In the manufacturing industry, firms surveyed in July 2021 observed a 9 % fall in nominal investment in 2020 compared with 2019 and forecast a rise of 10% in 2021 compared with 2020.
- Source: INSEE – Industrial investment survey
The balance of opinion on the change in investment over the ongoing half year has withdrawn after a sharp rise
The business managers in manufacturing industry are planning in average a rise in their investment during the second half of 2021. However, they are less upbeat than in January, when they were assessing the first half of the year: the balance of opinion related to the expected change in investment in the ongoing half year has withdrawn to +11 after +14 in January. This balance remains superior to its long-term average (+4).
For the first half of 2021, business managers have reported a strong rise in their investment as compared to the second half of 2020. Indeed, the balance of opinion related to the actual change in investment in the past half year has risen to +15 and has overshot its average (+6).
graphiqueOpinion of industrials regarding six-month change in investment (second estimate)
- Note: this graph illustrates the opinion balances of industrials surveyed for the second time on their investment for the past half-year and on their expected investment over the ongoing half-year (January and July surveys).
- Source: INSEE - Industrial investment survey.
For more information
The survey results provide a picture of investment conditions in the industrial market sector. Investment in this sector, plays a key role as an engine of economic change, but accounts for only about a quarter of productive investment in France.
Since the April 2020 survey, the way of dealing with non-response, which consisted in filling missing investment amounts with answers made to previous surveys by non-responding companies, has been modified. Since then, results have been computed on the basis of the sole responding companies.
Reference: Insee Méthodes n°119 “The French survey on industrial investment: methodology”. Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of the web page of this publication.
Documentation
Methodology 2017 (pdf,147 Ko)
Pour en savoir plus
Time series : Industry – Investment