Informations Rapides ·
26 August 2021 · n° 214
In August 2021, the business climate in services has deteriorated but remains at a
high level Monthly survey of services - August 2021
According to the business managers surveyed in August 2021, the business climate in services has accentuated its decline that began last month. At 108, the business climate indicator that synthetizes it has lost 3 points but remains well above its long-term average (100).
According to the business managers surveyed in August 2021, the business climate in services has accentuated its decline that began last month. At 108, the business climate indicator that synthetizes it has lost 3 points but remains well above its long-term average (100).
tableauBusiness climate composite indicator
| Business climate composite indicator | |
|---|---|
| 2005-01 | 106.8 |
| 2005-02 | 106.6 |
| 2005-03 | 108.5 |
| 2005-04 | 108.2 |
| 2005-05 | 106.4 |
| 2005-06 | 108.6 |
| 2005-07 | 108.0 |
| 2005-08 | 107.6 |
| 2005-09 | 107.2 |
| 2005-10 | 108.7 |
| 2005-11 | 106.7 |
| 2005-12 | 107.0 |
| 2006-01 | 108.8 |
| 2006-02 | 106.5 |
| 2006-03 | 107.8 |
| 2006-04 | 108.1 |
| 2006-05 | 110.6 |
| 2006-06 | 109.3 |
| 2006-07 | 110.5 |
| 2006-08 | 110.6 |
| 2006-09 | 110.8 |
| 2006-10 | 111.0 |
| 2006-11 | 113.1 |
| 2006-12 | 111.6 |
| 2007-01 | 111.0 |
| 2007-02 | 112.4 |
| 2007-03 | 113.3 |
| 2007-04 | 113.1 |
| 2007-05 | 112.9 |
| 2007-06 | 112.6 |
| 2007-07 | 113.2 |
| 2007-08 | 112.3 |
| 2007-09 | 111.6 |
| 2007-10 | 110.3 |
| 2007-11 | 110.4 |
| 2007-12 | 109.3 |
| 2008-01 | 110.6 |
| 2008-02 | 108.9 |
| 2008-03 | 108.9 |
| 2008-04 | 107.5 |
| 2008-05 | 105.1 |
| 2008-06 | 102.0 |
| 2008-07 | 97.9 |
| 2008-08 | 96.4 |
| 2008-09 | 94.5 |
| 2008-10 | 86.2 |
| 2008-11 | 82.3 |
| 2008-12 | 79.2 |
| 2009-01 | 76.7 |
| 2009-02 | 75.5 |
| 2009-03 | 70.5 |
| 2009-04 | 70.7 |
| 2009-05 | 74.6 |
| 2009-06 | 79.0 |
| 2009-07 | 82.6 |
| 2009-08 | 85.1 |
| 2009-09 | 88.3 |
| 2009-10 | 91.3 |
| 2009-11 | 92.7 |
| 2009-12 | 93.2 |
| 2010-01 | 94.6 |
| 2010-02 | 94.8 |
| 2010-03 | 95.0 |
| 2010-04 | 98.1 |
| 2010-05 | 99.7 |
| 2010-06 | 98.8 |
| 2010-07 | 99.5 |
| 2010-08 | 101.1 |
| 2010-09 | 102.0 |
| 2010-10 | 103.2 |
| 2010-11 | 105.1 |
| 2010-12 | 107.1 |
| 2011-01 | 107.3 |
| 2011-02 | 109.4 |
| 2011-03 | 110.6 |
| 2011-04 | 109.3 |
| 2011-05 | 108.0 |
| 2011-06 | 107.5 |
| 2011-07 | 105.5 |
| 2011-08 | 101.2 |
| 2011-09 | 99.1 |
| 2011-10 | 98.1 |
| 2011-11 | 96.0 |
| 2011-12 | 95.6 |
| 2012-01 | 93.8 |
| 2012-02 | 93.1 |
| 2012-03 | 94.5 |
| 2012-04 | 96.4 |
| 2012-05 | 92.9 |
| 2012-06 | 91.0 |
| 2012-07 | 90.6 |
| 2012-08 | 88.5 |
| 2012-09 | 88.3 |
| 2012-10 | 87.2 |
| 2012-11 | 86.6 |
| 2012-12 | 88.1 |
| 2013-01 | 89.2 |
| 2013-02 | 88.0 |
| 2013-03 | 85.2 |
| 2013-04 | 84.4 |
| 2013-05 | 85.8 |
| 2013-06 | 87.0 |
| 2013-07 | 87.5 |
| 2013-08 | 89.4 |
| 2013-09 | 92.9 |
| 2013-10 | 92.4 |
| 2013-11 | 93.0 |
| 2013-12 | 91.6 |
| 2014-01 | 93.0 |
| 2014-02 | 92.8 |
| 2014-03 | 93.6 |
| 2014-04 | 93.9 |
| 2014-05 | 92.9 |
| 2014-06 | 92.9 |
| 2014-07 | 93.2 |
| 2014-08 | 92.3 |
| 2014-09 | 91.7 |
| 2014-10 | 92.0 |
| 2014-11 | 91.9 |
| 2014-12 | 92.0 |
| 2015-01 | 91.8 |
| 2015-02 | 92.1 |
| 2015-03 | 93.0 |
| 2015-04 | 94.5 |
| 2015-05 | 95.9 |
| 2015-06 | 97.3 |
| 2015-07 | 98.0 |
| 2015-08 | 99.0 |
| 2015-09 | 98.0 |
| 2015-10 | 99.9 |
| 2015-11 | 99.7 |
| 2015-12 | 97.5 |
| 2016-01 | 100.4 |
| 2016-02 | 100.3 |
| 2016-03 | 99.9 |
| 2016-04 | 98.8 |
| 2016-05 | 101.0 |
| 2016-06 | 99.5 |
| 2016-07 | 100.7 |
| 2016-08 | 100.5 |
| 2016-09 | 101.1 |
| 2016-10 | 101.0 |
| 2016-11 | 101.2 |
| 2016-12 | 103.7 |
| 2017-01 | 102.0 |
| 2017-02 | 103.1 |
| 2017-03 | 103.5 |
| 2017-04 | 103.4 |
| 2017-05 | 102.9 |
| 2017-06 | 103.6 |
| 2017-07 | 104.1 |
| 2017-08 | 106.2 |
| 2017-09 | 106.7 |
| 2017-10 | 106.9 |
| 2017-11 | 107.5 |
| 2017-12 | 108.7 |
| 2018-01 | 107.8 |
| 2018-02 | 106.8 |
| 2018-03 | 106.9 |
| 2018-04 | 106.1 |
| 2018-05 | 104.3 |
| 2018-06 | 104.8 |
| 2018-07 | 104.6 |
| 2018-08 | 104.3 |
| 2018-09 | 104.7 |
| 2018-10 | 103.5 |
| 2018-11 | 104.0 |
| 2018-12 | 102.3 |
| 2019-01 | 103.8 |
| 2019-02 | 103.9 |
| 2019-03 | 104.9 |
| 2019-04 | 105.7 |
| 2019-05 | 105.7 |
| 2019-06 | 106.0 |
| 2019-07 | 105.3 |
| 2019-08 | 105.3 |
| 2019-09 | 105.8 |
| 2019-10 | 106.0 |
| 2019-11 | 106.4 |
| 2019-12 | 106.7 |
| 2020-01 | 106.4 |
| 2020-02 | 106.2 |
| 2020-03 | 93.1 |
| 2020-04 | 41.9 |
| 2020-05 | 51.8 |
| 2020-06 | 78.1 |
| 2020-07 | 88.9 |
| 2020-08 | 93.7 |
| 2020-09 | 94.5 |
| 2020-10 | 88.9 |
| 2020-11 | 78.1 |
| 2020-12 | 90.2 |
| 2021-01 | 91.6 |
| 2021-02 | 88.6 |
| 2021-03 | 94.0 |
| 2021-04 | 91.7 |
| 2021-05 | 106.5 |
| 2021-06 | 111.9 |
| 2021-07 | 111.1 |
| 2021-08 | 108.4 |
graphiqueBusiness climate composite indicator
- Source: INSEE
The business managers have moderated their expectations
In August 2021, the business leaders' expectations are less optimistic than in the previous month. The balance of opinion on the general outlook for the sector activity and on expected demand have decreased again; the one on activity for the next three months has fallen back. However, these three balances remain above their respective averages.
The balance of opinion on activity over the past three months has improved again in August and has further exceeded its average.
The balance of opinion on the recent change in selling prices is stable, above its average level. The one on the expected change in selling prices is virtually stable and remains also above its average.
About employment, the balance of opinion on the change in workforce size over the last three months has increased slightly again, mainly due to services excluding temporary work agencies, and stands above its average level. The balance on expected workforce size is stable, above its average.
The balance of opinion on investment over the past three months has decreased and therefore has returned below its average, whereas the one on expected investment has recovered slightly and has reached its average.
tableauEconomic outlook in the services sector
| Average* | May 2021 | June 2021 | July 2021 | Aug. 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Composite indicator | 100 | 107 | 112 | 111 | 108 |
| General outlook | -7 | 6 | 12 | 9 | 6 |
| Past activity | 1 | -2 | 3 | 8 | 10 |
| Expected activity | 1 | 6 | 11 | 11 | 7 |
| Expected demand | -1 | 10 | 17 | 11 | 7 |
| Past selling prices | -4 | -6 | -4 | 1 | 1 |
| Expected selling prices | -3 | -1 | 1 | 5 | 4 |
| Past employment | 2 | -6 | -1 | 3 | 5 |
| except temporary work agencies | 0 | -6 | -7 | 0 | 4 |
| Expected employment | 2 | 4 | 8 | 6 | 6 |
| except temporary work agencies | -1 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 5 |
| Investments | |||||
| Past investments | 1 | -1 | 3 | 2 | -1 |
| Expected investments | 1 | -5 | 0 | -1 | 1 |
- * Average since 1989 for the composite indicator and since 1988 for the balances of opinion, except general outlook (since June 2000)
- Source: INSEE, monthly business survey in services.
After a steep hike, the business climate has fallen back strongly in accommodation and food services
In August 2021, the business climate in services has deteriorated sharply in accommodation and food services and in administrative and support services, whereas it has improved in road freight transport and information-communication. It is virtually stable in real estate activities and in professional, scientific and technical activities. Despite these contrasting developments, the business climate remains above the average in all service sub-sectors.
In accommodation and food services, the business climate has declined after a strong improvement at the beginning of the summer. At 114, the indicator that synthetizes it has lost 15 points and has returned to its May level. Nevertheless, it remains well above its long-term average. The forward-looking balances – general outlook for the sub-sector, expected demand and expected activity – have decreased strongly but they remain well above their respective averages. Conversely, the balance on activity over the past three months has continued to rebound markedly in this sub-sector.
Revision
The business climate indicator of July 2021 has been revised downwards by one point. This revision is mainly due to the inclusion of late responses from businesses.
tableauBusiness climate composite indicator and balances of opinion by sub-sector in services
| Aggregated classification (NA 2008) at level A21 | Mean* | May 2021 | June 2021 | July 2021 | Aug. 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Road transport (8%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 110 | 112 | 105 | 107 |
| Past activity | -6 | 8 | 10 | 13 | 8 |
| Expected activity | -7 | 7 | 12 | -3 | 3 |
| Expected demand | -9 | 15 | 17 | -4 | 4 |
| Past employment | -6 | -7 | -4 | -3 | -8 |
| Expected employment | -7 | -2 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| General outlook | -18 | 4 | 12 | -1 | -2 |
| Accommodation and food service activities (11%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 114 | 127 | 129 | 114 |
| Past activity | -8 | -28 | -19 | 3 | 28 |
| Expected activity | -8 | 17 | 33 | 36 | 5 |
| Expected demand | -10 | 22 | 43 | 36 | 8 |
| Past employment | -5 | -14 | -24 | -4 | -2 |
| Expected employment | -6 | 2 | 13 | 14 | -1 |
| General outlook | -15 | 11 | 34 | 40 | 10 |
| Information and communication (26%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 103 | 107 | 106 | 108 |
| Past activity | 7 | 11 | 8 | 14 | 9 |
| Expected activity | 9 | 4 | 9 | 12 | 10 |
| Expected demand | 9 | 9 | 15 | 13 | 11 |
| Past employment | 6 | 6 | 11 | 10 | 14 |
| Expected employment | 10 | 6 | 18 | 16 | 22 |
| General outlook | 0 | 10 | 12 | 9 | 10 |
| Real estate activities (11%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 110 | 115 | 113 | 112 |
| Past activity | 6 | -1 | 9 | 11 | 18 |
| Expected activity | 6 | 16 | 16 | 10 | 12 |
| Expected demand | 1 | 17 | 20 | 10 | 9 |
| Past employment | 2 | 5 | 14 | 15 | 10 |
| Expected employment | 2 | 8 | 19 | 14 | 9 |
| General outlook | -4 | 6 | 12 | 5 | 6 |
| Professional, scientific and technical activities (24%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 104 | 107 | 109 | 108 |
| Past activity | -1 | -5 | 8 | 6 | 8 |
| Expected activity | -3 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
| Expected demand | -6 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
| Past employment | 0 | -8 | -8 | 0 | 1 |
| Expected employment | 0 | -2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| General outlook | -9 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 4 |
| Administrative and support service activities (18%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 105 | 111 | 110 | 104 |
| Past activity | 5 | -4 | 4 | 7 | 2 |
| Expected activity | 5 | 6 | 16 | 16 | 10 |
| Expected demand | 3 | 15 | 21 | 18 | 5 |
| Past employment | 8 | -7 | 6 | 5 | 5 |
| Expected employment | 7 | 6 | 0 | -1 | 3 |
| General outlook | -4 | 9 | 15 | 13 | 6 |
- The figures in parentheses indicate the weights used to aggregate the sub-sector balances of opinion.
- *Composite indicator: average since 1989 (2006 for road transport); balances of opinion: average since 1988, except general outlook since June 2000 (2006 for road transport)
- Source: INSEE, monthly business survey in services.
For further information
A balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentage of “increase” responses and the percentage of “decrease” responses.
Since the definitive data of April 2020, the way of correcting mode of non-response has been modified. The usual method was to fill in missing answers by carrying on past answers from non-responding companies. The results are now computed on the sole basis of responding companies.
The responses to this survey were collected between 28 July and 23 August 2021.
Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of the web page of this publication.
Next issue: 23 September 2021 at 8:45 am
Documentation
Abbreviated methodology (pdf,185 Ko)
Pour en savoir plus
A balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentage of “increase” responses and the percentage of “decrease” responses.
Since the definitive data of April 2020, the way of correcting mode of non-response has been modified. The usual method was to fill in missing answers by carrying on past answers from non-responding companies. The results are now computed on the sole basis of responding companies.
The responses to this survey were collected between 28 July and 23 August 2021.
Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of the web page of this publication.
Next issue: 23 September 2021 at 8:45 am
Time series : Economic outlook surveys – Services