Informations Rapides ·
24 June 2021 · n° 161
In June 2021, the business climate has continued to improve significantly in services Monthly survey of services - June 2021
According to the business managers surveyed in June 2021, the business climate in services has improved again sharply. At 113, the business climate indicator that synthetizes it has gained 6 points and stands at its highest level since July 2007, well above its long-term average (100).
According to the business managers surveyed in June 2021, the business climate in services has improved again sharply. At 113, the business climate indicator that synthetizes it has gained 6 points and stands at its highest level since July 2007, well above its long-term average (100).
tableauBusiness climate composite indicator
| Business climate composite indicator | |
|---|---|
| 2005-01 | 106.8 |
| 2005-02 | 106.6 |
| 2005-03 | 108.5 |
| 2005-04 | 108.2 |
| 2005-05 | 106.4 |
| 2005-06 | 108.6 |
| 2005-07 | 107.9 |
| 2005-08 | 107.6 |
| 2005-09 | 107.2 |
| 2005-10 | 108.7 |
| 2005-11 | 106.7 |
| 2005-12 | 107.0 |
| 2006-01 | 108.9 |
| 2006-02 | 106.6 |
| 2006-03 | 107.8 |
| 2006-04 | 108.1 |
| 2006-05 | 110.6 |
| 2006-06 | 109.4 |
| 2006-07 | 110.5 |
| 2006-08 | 110.6 |
| 2006-09 | 110.8 |
| 2006-10 | 111.0 |
| 2006-11 | 113.1 |
| 2006-12 | 111.6 |
| 2007-01 | 111.1 |
| 2007-02 | 112.4 |
| 2007-03 | 113.4 |
| 2007-04 | 113.1 |
| 2007-05 | 113.0 |
| 2007-06 | 112.7 |
| 2007-07 | 113.2 |
| 2007-08 | 112.4 |
| 2007-09 | 111.6 |
| 2007-10 | 110.4 |
| 2007-11 | 110.5 |
| 2007-12 | 109.4 |
| 2008-01 | 110.7 |
| 2008-02 | 109.0 |
| 2008-03 | 109.0 |
| 2008-04 | 107.5 |
| 2008-05 | 105.1 |
| 2008-06 | 102.1 |
| 2008-07 | 97.9 |
| 2008-08 | 96.5 |
| 2008-09 | 94.5 |
| 2008-10 | 86.2 |
| 2008-11 | 82.3 |
| 2008-12 | 79.2 |
| 2009-01 | 76.7 |
| 2009-02 | 75.6 |
| 2009-03 | 70.6 |
| 2009-04 | 70.7 |
| 2009-05 | 74.6 |
| 2009-06 | 79.1 |
| 2009-07 | 82.6 |
| 2009-08 | 85.2 |
| 2009-09 | 88.3 |
| 2009-10 | 91.3 |
| 2009-11 | 92.7 |
| 2009-12 | 93.2 |
| 2010-01 | 94.6 |
| 2010-02 | 94.9 |
| 2010-03 | 95.1 |
| 2010-04 | 98.1 |
| 2010-05 | 99.7 |
| 2010-06 | 98.9 |
| 2010-07 | 99.7 |
| 2010-08 | 101.2 |
| 2010-09 | 102.1 |
| 2010-10 | 103.4 |
| 2010-11 | 105.2 |
| 2010-12 | 107.1 |
| 2011-01 | 107.4 |
| 2011-02 | 109.5 |
| 2011-03 | 110.6 |
| 2011-04 | 109.4 |
| 2011-05 | 108.1 |
| 2011-06 | 107.6 |
| 2011-07 | 105.6 |
| 2011-08 | 101.3 |
| 2011-09 | 99.2 |
| 2011-10 | 98.1 |
| 2011-11 | 96.1 |
| 2011-12 | 95.7 |
| 2012-01 | 93.9 |
| 2012-02 | 93.3 |
| 2012-03 | 94.6 |
| 2012-04 | 96.5 |
| 2012-05 | 93.0 |
| 2012-06 | 91.1 |
| 2012-07 | 90.6 |
| 2012-08 | 88.6 |
| 2012-09 | 88.3 |
| 2012-10 | 87.2 |
| 2012-11 | 86.7 |
| 2012-12 | 88.2 |
| 2013-01 | 89.2 |
| 2013-02 | 88.0 |
| 2013-03 | 85.3 |
| 2013-04 | 84.4 |
| 2013-05 | 85.8 |
| 2013-06 | 87.0 |
| 2013-07 | 87.5 |
| 2013-08 | 89.4 |
| 2013-09 | 92.9 |
| 2013-10 | 92.5 |
| 2013-11 | 93.1 |
| 2013-12 | 91.7 |
| 2014-01 | 93.0 |
| 2014-02 | 92.9 |
| 2014-03 | 93.7 |
| 2014-04 | 94.0 |
| 2014-05 | 93.0 |
| 2014-06 | 93.0 |
| 2014-07 | 93.3 |
| 2014-08 | 92.3 |
| 2014-09 | 91.8 |
| 2014-10 | 92.1 |
| 2014-11 | 92.0 |
| 2014-12 | 92.1 |
| 2015-01 | 91.9 |
| 2015-02 | 92.2 |
| 2015-03 | 93.0 |
| 2015-04 | 94.5 |
| 2015-05 | 96.0 |
| 2015-06 | 97.4 |
| 2015-07 | 98.0 |
| 2015-08 | 99.1 |
| 2015-09 | 98.1 |
| 2015-10 | 100.1 |
| 2015-11 | 99.8 |
| 2015-12 | 97.7 |
| 2016-01 | 100.5 |
| 2016-02 | 100.3 |
| 2016-03 | 100.0 |
| 2016-04 | 98.9 |
| 2016-05 | 101.2 |
| 2016-06 | 99.6 |
| 2016-07 | 100.8 |
| 2016-08 | 100.5 |
| 2016-09 | 101.3 |
| 2016-10 | 101.2 |
| 2016-11 | 101.3 |
| 2016-12 | 104.0 |
| 2017-01 | 102.1 |
| 2017-02 | 103.1 |
| 2017-03 | 103.7 |
| 2017-04 | 103.5 |
| 2017-05 | 103.1 |
| 2017-06 | 103.9 |
| 2017-07 | 104.2 |
| 2017-08 | 106.1 |
| 2017-09 | 106.9 |
| 2017-10 | 107.0 |
| 2017-11 | 107.7 |
| 2017-12 | 109.0 |
| 2018-01 | 107.9 |
| 2018-02 | 106.7 |
| 2018-03 | 107.0 |
| 2018-04 | 106.1 |
| 2018-05 | 104.6 |
| 2018-06 | 105.1 |
| 2018-07 | 104.7 |
| 2018-08 | 104.0 |
| 2018-09 | 104.8 |
| 2018-10 | 103.6 |
| 2018-11 | 104.1 |
| 2018-12 | 102.5 |
| 2019-01 | 103.8 |
| 2019-02 | 103.7 |
| 2019-03 | 104.9 |
| 2019-04 | 105.7 |
| 2019-05 | 106.1 |
| 2019-06 | 106.5 |
| 2019-07 | 105.4 |
| 2019-08 | 105.0 |
| 2019-09 | 106.0 |
| 2019-10 | 106.0 |
| 2019-11 | 106.4 |
| 2019-12 | 106.8 |
| 2020-01 | 106.4 |
| 2020-02 | 106.1 |
| 2020-03 | 93.2 |
| 2020-04 | 42.1 |
| 2020-05 | 52.3 |
| 2020-06 | 78.5 |
| 2020-07 | 88.6 |
| 2020-08 | 93.3 |
| 2020-09 | 94.6 |
| 2020-10 | 89.0 |
| 2020-11 | 78.3 |
| 2020-12 | 90.2 |
| 2021-01 | 91.6 |
| 2021-02 | 88.5 |
| 2021-03 | 94.0 |
| 2021-04 | 91.8 |
| 2021-05 | 107.1 |
| 2021-06 | 112.9 |
graphiqueBusiness climate composite indicator
- Source: INSEE
Business managers’ expectations have improved very strongly
In June 2021, in services, business leaders are even more optimistic than in the previous month. The balance of opinion on the general outlook for the sector activity for the next three months has improved sharply again, especially in accommodation and food services, and therefore has reached its highest level since September 2000, well above its long-term average. The balances on expected activity and on expected demand for the next three months have also improved sharply again, exceeding even more their respective averages.
The balance of opinion on activity over the past three months has increased for the fifth consecutive month. It has returned above its long-term average.
The balance of opinion on the recent change in selling prices, virtually stable, stands at its average level. The one on the expected change in selling prices has increased slightly and stands above its average.
About employment, the balance of opinion on the change in worforce size over the last three months has improved sharply again and has approached its average. The one on the change in expected workforce size has also increased again and therefore remains above its average.
The balance of opinion on investment over the past three months has improved again and has returned above its average. The one on expected investment for the next three months has increased again and has approached its average.
tableauEconomic outlook in the services sector
| Average* | Mar. 2021 | Apr. 2021 | May 2021 | June 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Composite indicator | 100 | 94 | 92 | 107 | 113 |
| General outlook | -8 | -9 | -13 | 6 | 13 |
| Past activity | 1 | -8 | -5 | -1 | 5 |
| Expected activity | 1 | -8 | -12 | 7 | 12 |
| Expected demand | -1 | -6 | -9 | 11 | 18 |
| Past selling prices | -4 | -10 | -9 | -5 | -4 |
| Expected selling prices | -3 | -8 | -8 | -1 | 2 |
| Past employment | 2 | -12 | -14 | -5 | 1 |
| except temporary work agencies | 0 | -14 | -10 | -6 | -7 |
| Expected employment | 2 | -6 | -7 | 3 | 7 |
| except temporary work agencies | -1 | -10 | -9 | -1 | 6 |
| Investments | |||||
| Past investments | 1 | -6 | -7 | 0 | 4 |
| Expected investments | 1 | -7 | -11 | -5 | 0 |
- * Average since 1989 for the composite indicator and since 1988 for the balances of opinion
- Source: INSEE, monthly business survey in services.
The business climate has continued to improve in all sub-sectors, especially in accommodation and food services
In accommodation and food services, the business climate has improved very sharply again in June 2021, in connection with the last stages of the lockdown exit started in early May. At 128, the indicator that synthetizes it has gained 14 points and has reached its highest level since the beginning if the series (January 1989). In this sub-sector, the forward-looking balances – general outlook for the sector, expected demand and expected activity – have increased very strongly.
In road freight transport, information-communication, real estate activities and administrative and support services, the business climate has also continued to improve markedly: the composite indicator stands well above its average.
In professional, scientific and technical activities, the business climate has improved slightly and therefore remains above its average.
tableauBusiness climate composite indicator and balances of opinion by sub-sector in services
| Aggregated classification (NA 2008) at level A21 | Mean* | Mar. 2021 | Apr. 2021 | May 2021 | June 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Road transport (8%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 102 | 104 | 109 | 113 |
| Past activity | -6 | -10 | 7 | 9 | 13 |
| Expected activity | -7 | -6 | -3 | 5 | 15 |
| Expected demand | -9 | -6 | -4 | 15 | 19 |
| Past employment | -6 | -5 | -7 | -7 | -3 |
| Expected employment | -7 | -3 | -1 | -4 | 3 |
| General outlook | -19 | -4 | -6 | 4 | 16 |
| Accommodation and food service activities (11%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 78 | 75 | 114 | 128 |
| Past activity | -8 | -39 | -43 | -33 | -23 |
| Expected activity | -8 | -38 | -43 | 16 | 34 |
| Expected demand | -10 | -40 | -42 | 22 | 46 |
| Past employment | -5 | -32 | -31 | -16 | -24 |
| Expected employment | -7 | -26 | -24 | 2 | 10 |
| General outlook | -15 | -44 | -55 | 11 | 39 |
| Information and communication (26%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 99 | 102 | 104 | 108 |
| Past activity | 7 | 14 | 16 | 20 | 15 |
| Expected activity | 9 | 11 | -5 | 6 | 12 |
| Expected demand | 9 | 10 | 5 | 11 | 17 |
| Past employment | 6 | -8 | 13 | 6 | 11 |
| Expected employment | 10 | 1 | 18 | 6 | 17 |
| General outlook | 0 | 1 | -1 | 9 | 12 |
| Real estate activities (11%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 102 | 101 | 108 | 115 |
| Past activity | 6 | 4 | -3 | -2 | 11 |
| Expected activity | 6 | 7 | 4 | 15 | 17 |
| Expected demand | 1 | 7 | 10 | 16 | 19 |
| Past employment | 2 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| Expected employment | 2 | 6 | 10 | 6 | 18 |
| General outlook | -4 | -5 | -5 | 4 | 11 |
| Professional, scientific and technical activities (24%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 93 | 91 | 105 | 106 |
| Past activity | -1 | -15 | -9 | -5 | 10 |
| Expected activity | -3 | -14 | -12 | 2 | -1 |
| Expected demand | -6 | -11 | -13 | 0 | 3 |
| Past employment | 0 | -16 | -13 | -8 | -8 |
| Expected employment | 0 | -8 | -16 | -3 | 1 |
| General outlook | -9 | -10 | -17 | 4 | 3 |
| Administrative and support service activities (18%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 91 | 88 | 105 | 110 |
| Past activity | 5 | -14 | -16 | -2 | 3 |
| Expected activity | 5 | -11 | -11 | 5 | 14 |
| Expected demand | 3 | -7 | -12 | 14 | 21 |
| Past employment | 8 | -5 | -22 | -5 | 11 |
| Expected employment | 7 | 3 | -9 | 7 | 0 |
| General outlook | -4 | -12 | -12 | 8 | 15 |
- The figures in parentheses indicate the weights used to aggregate the sub-sector balances of opinion.
- *Composite indicator: average since 1989 (2006 for road transport); balances of opinion: average since 1988 (2006 for road transport)
- Source: INSEE, monthly business survey in services.
Revision
The business climate indicator of May 2021 in accommodation and food services has been revised upwards by one point, while it has been lowered by one point in real estate activities. These revisions are mainly due to the inclusion of late responses from businesses.
For further information
A balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentage of “increase” responses and the percentage of “decrease” responses.
Since the definitive data of April 2020, the way of correcting mode of non-response has been modified. The usual method was to fill in missing answers by carrying on past answers from non-responding companies. The results are now computed on the sole basis of responding companies.
The responses to this survey were collected between 27 May and 21 June 2021.
Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of the web page of this publication.
Next issue: 22 July 2021 at 8:45 am
Documentation
Abbreviated methodology (pdf,185 Ko)
Pour en savoir plus
A balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentage of “increase” responses and the percentage of “decrease” responses.
Since the definitive data of April 2020, the way of correcting mode of non-response has been modified. The usual method was to fill in missing answers by carrying on past answers from non-responding companies. The results are now computed on the sole basis of responding companies.
The responses to this survey were collected between 27 May and 21 June 2021.
Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of the web page of this publication.
Next issue: 22 July 2021 at 8:45 am
Time series : Economic outlook surveys – Services