Informations Rapides · 26 May 2021 · n° 132

In May 2021, the business climate in wholesale trade is signalling a strong recovery Bi-monthly survey of wholesaling - May 2021

According to the business managers surveyed in May 2021, the business climate in wholesale trade has improved strongly from March to May. The composite indicator has gained 11 points and is standing at 110, well above its long-term average (100). It has reached its highest level since November 2017. As for the balances of opinion regarding the wholesalers’ selling prices, they are standing at their highest since 1989.

The balances of opinion on the general business outlook, on ordering intentions and on the deliveries to be made abroad have leaped between March and May 2021. They have each reached their highest level since the beginning of 2018, well above their long-term average.

The balance on ordering intentions over the next two months has improved in all sub-sectors except in the wholesale trade of raw agricultural products, where it has been virtually stable. This balance has increased markedly again in the wholesale trade of information and communication equipment and has reached its highest point since the summer of 1987. It has grown even more sharply in the “other specialised wholesale trade” (fuels, building materials, chemicals, and the like).

From March to May 2021, the balance of opinion on the sales of wholesale trade as a whole over the past two months has accelerated and has settled at its highest since November 2017. The balance of opinion on received merchandise has jumped above its average. Finally, all the balances of opinion on past activity related to abroad have improved very significantly and have exceeded their long-term average.

The balance of opinion on past sales has improved in all sub-sectors. It has settled everywhere above its long-term average, except in the wholesale trades of raw agricultural products and of food products. The rise in the balance of opinion on past sales has been sharpest in the wholesale trade of “other industrial capital goods” and in the “other specialised wholesale trade”. This balance is lying at a particularly high level in the wholesale trade of information and communication equipment.

The balance of opinion regarding the forecasted change in workforce size, above its average since the beginning of 2021, has risen markedly and has reached its highest level since May 2018. The balance regarding the recent change in workforce size has improved again and has exceeded its average, for the first time since January 2020.

In May 2021, the balances of opinion regarding past and expected selling prices have carried on with their swift rise started in January. Both have been exceeding their long-term average since March 2021 and are now standing at their highest level since 1989. Meanwhile, more and more wholesalers are expecting their suppliers’ prices to increase.

About as many wholesalers in May as in March have considered their cash flow situation to be favourable. The balance of opinion related to their cash position has been virtually stable, at a record high level since the series started.

The business climate indicator in wholesale trade of March 2021 has been updated from 98 to 99, as a result of the integration of belated business answers.