Informations Rapides ·
26 May 2021 · n° 131
In May 2021, the business climate has improved very strongly in services Monthly survey of services - May 2021
According to the business managers surveyed in May 2021, the business climate in services has improved very strongly in connection with the progressive lifting of health restrictions. At 107, the business climate indicator that synthetizes it has gained 15 points and therefore, for the first time since the beginning of the health crisis, stands above its long-term average (100).
According to the business managers surveyed in May 2021, the business climate in services has improved very strongly in connection with the progressive lifting of health restrictions. At 107, the business climate indicator that synthetizes it has gained 15 points and therefore, for the first time since the beginning of the health crisis, stands above its long-term average (100).
tableauBusiness climate composite indicator
| Business climate composite indicator | |
|---|---|
| 2005-01 | 106.9 |
| 2005-02 | 106.7 |
| 2005-03 | 108.6 |
| 2005-04 | 108.3 |
| 2005-05 | 106.4 |
| 2005-06 | 108.6 |
| 2005-07 | 108.0 |
| 2005-08 | 107.7 |
| 2005-09 | 107.3 |
| 2005-10 | 108.8 |
| 2005-11 | 106.8 |
| 2005-12 | 107.1 |
| 2006-01 | 109.0 |
| 2006-02 | 106.6 |
| 2006-03 | 107.9 |
| 2006-04 | 108.2 |
| 2006-05 | 110.7 |
| 2006-06 | 109.4 |
| 2006-07 | 110.6 |
| 2006-08 | 110.7 |
| 2006-09 | 110.8 |
| 2006-10 | 111.1 |
| 2006-11 | 113.2 |
| 2006-12 | 111.6 |
| 2007-01 | 111.1 |
| 2007-02 | 112.5 |
| 2007-03 | 113.5 |
| 2007-04 | 113.2 |
| 2007-05 | 113.1 |
| 2007-06 | 112.8 |
| 2007-07 | 113.3 |
| 2007-08 | 112.5 |
| 2007-09 | 111.7 |
| 2007-10 | 110.4 |
| 2007-11 | 110.5 |
| 2007-12 | 109.5 |
| 2008-01 | 110.7 |
| 2008-02 | 109.0 |
| 2008-03 | 109.1 |
| 2008-04 | 107.6 |
| 2008-05 | 105.2 |
| 2008-06 | 102.1 |
| 2008-07 | 98.0 |
| 2008-08 | 96.5 |
| 2008-09 | 94.5 |
| 2008-10 | 86.2 |
| 2008-11 | 82.3 |
| 2008-12 | 79.3 |
| 2009-01 | 76.8 |
| 2009-02 | 75.6 |
| 2009-03 | 70.6 |
| 2009-04 | 70.8 |
| 2009-05 | 74.7 |
| 2009-06 | 79.1 |
| 2009-07 | 82.6 |
| 2009-08 | 85.2 |
| 2009-09 | 88.3 |
| 2009-10 | 91.4 |
| 2009-11 | 92.8 |
| 2009-12 | 93.3 |
| 2010-01 | 94.7 |
| 2010-02 | 94.9 |
| 2010-03 | 95.1 |
| 2010-04 | 98.2 |
| 2010-05 | 99.8 |
| 2010-06 | 98.9 |
| 2010-07 | 99.7 |
| 2010-08 | 101.2 |
| 2010-09 | 102.2 |
| 2010-10 | 103.4 |
| 2010-11 | 105.3 |
| 2010-12 | 107.2 |
| 2011-01 | 107.5 |
| 2011-02 | 109.6 |
| 2011-03 | 110.7 |
| 2011-04 | 109.4 |
| 2011-05 | 108.1 |
| 2011-06 | 107.6 |
| 2011-07 | 105.7 |
| 2011-08 | 101.4 |
| 2011-09 | 99.3 |
| 2011-10 | 98.2 |
| 2011-11 | 96.1 |
| 2011-12 | 95.7 |
| 2012-01 | 93.9 |
| 2012-02 | 93.3 |
| 2012-03 | 94.6 |
| 2012-04 | 96.6 |
| 2012-05 | 93.1 |
| 2012-06 | 91.1 |
| 2012-07 | 90.7 |
| 2012-08 | 88.7 |
| 2012-09 | 88.4 |
| 2012-10 | 87.2 |
| 2012-11 | 86.7 |
| 2012-12 | 88.2 |
| 2013-01 | 89.2 |
| 2013-02 | 88.0 |
| 2013-03 | 85.3 |
| 2013-04 | 84.4 |
| 2013-05 | 85.8 |
| 2013-06 | 87.1 |
| 2013-07 | 87.6 |
| 2013-08 | 89.5 |
| 2013-09 | 93.0 |
| 2013-10 | 92.5 |
| 2013-11 | 93.2 |
| 2013-12 | 91.8 |
| 2014-01 | 93.1 |
| 2014-02 | 92.9 |
| 2014-03 | 93.8 |
| 2014-04 | 94.1 |
| 2014-05 | 93.1 |
| 2014-06 | 93.1 |
| 2014-07 | 93.3 |
| 2014-08 | 92.4 |
| 2014-09 | 91.9 |
| 2014-10 | 92.1 |
| 2014-11 | 92.1 |
| 2014-12 | 92.1 |
| 2015-01 | 91.9 |
| 2015-02 | 92.2 |
| 2015-03 | 93.0 |
| 2015-04 | 94.6 |
| 2015-05 | 96.1 |
| 2015-06 | 97.4 |
| 2015-07 | 98.1 |
| 2015-08 | 99.1 |
| 2015-09 | 98.2 |
| 2015-10 | 100.1 |
| 2015-11 | 99.9 |
| 2015-12 | 97.7 |
| 2016-01 | 100.6 |
| 2016-02 | 100.4 |
| 2016-03 | 100.1 |
| 2016-04 | 98.9 |
| 2016-05 | 101.3 |
| 2016-06 | 99.7 |
| 2016-07 | 100.9 |
| 2016-08 | 100.5 |
| 2016-09 | 101.3 |
| 2016-10 | 101.3 |
| 2016-11 | 101.3 |
| 2016-12 | 104.0 |
| 2017-01 | 102.1 |
| 2017-02 | 103.2 |
| 2017-03 | 103.7 |
| 2017-04 | 103.6 |
| 2017-05 | 103.2 |
| 2017-06 | 104.0 |
| 2017-07 | 104.2 |
| 2017-08 | 106.2 |
| 2017-09 | 106.9 |
| 2017-10 | 107.1 |
| 2017-11 | 107.7 |
| 2017-12 | 109.0 |
| 2018-01 | 108.0 |
| 2018-02 | 106.8 |
| 2018-03 | 107.0 |
| 2018-04 | 106.2 |
| 2018-05 | 104.7 |
| 2018-06 | 105.2 |
| 2018-07 | 104.7 |
| 2018-08 | 104.1 |
| 2018-09 | 104.9 |
| 2018-10 | 103.6 |
| 2018-11 | 104.1 |
| 2018-12 | 102.6 |
| 2019-01 | 103.9 |
| 2019-02 | 103.8 |
| 2019-03 | 105.0 |
| 2019-04 | 105.8 |
| 2019-05 | 106.2 |
| 2019-06 | 106.6 |
| 2019-07 | 105.4 |
| 2019-08 | 105.1 |
| 2019-09 | 106.0 |
| 2019-10 | 106.1 |
| 2019-11 | 106.5 |
| 2019-12 | 106.9 |
| 2020-01 | 106.5 |
| 2020-02 | 106.2 |
| 2020-03 | 93.3 |
| 2020-04 | 42.1 |
| 2020-05 | 52.3 |
| 2020-06 | 78.6 |
| 2020-07 | 88.7 |
| 2020-08 | 93.3 |
| 2020-09 | 94.7 |
| 2020-10 | 89.1 |
| 2020-11 | 78.3 |
| 2020-12 | 90.3 |
| 2021-01 | 91.7 |
| 2021-02 | 88.5 |
| 2021-03 | 94.1 |
| 2021-04 | 91.8 |
| 2021-05 | 107.0 |
graphiqueBusiness climate composite indicator
- Source: INSEE
Business managers’ expectations have bounced back very sharply
In May 2021, business leaders are much more optimistic than in the previous month. The balance of opinion on the general outlook for the sector activity for the next three months has recovered very sharply; it has returned above its long-term average. The balances on expected activity and on expected demand for the next three months have also bounced back very sharply and have also returned above their respective averages.
The balance of opinion on activity over the past three months has improved again in May and has approached its long-term average.
More business leaders than in the previous month have reported an increase in their sales prices. The balance of opinion on the recent change in selling prices has approached its average level. The one on the expected change in selling prices has also increased sharply and has returned above its average level.
About employment, the balance of opinion on the change in worforce size over the last three months has bounced back strongly but remains below its average. The one on the change in expected workforce size has also recovered strongly and has returned above its average.
The balance of opinion on past investment has recovered and has almost returned to its average. The one on expected investment has also bounced back but remains below its average.
tableauEconomic outlook in the services sector
| Average* | Feb. 2021 | Mar. 2021 | Apr. 2021 | May 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Composite indicator | 100 | 88 | 94 | 92 | 107 |
| General outlook | -8 | -21 | -9 | -13 | 6 |
| Past activity | 1 | -9 | -8 | -5 | -1 |
| Expected activity | 1 | -12 | -8 | -12 | 6 |
| Expected demand | -1 | -12 | -6 | -9 | 10 |
| Past selling prices | -4 | -9 | -10 | -9 | -5 |
| Expected selling prices | -3 | -11 | -8 | -8 | -1 |
| Past employment | 2 | -16 | -12 | -14 | -5 |
| except temporary work agencies | 0 | -20 | -14 | -10 | -6 |
| Expected employment | 2 | -8 | -6 | -7 | 4 |
| except temporary work agencies | -1 | -16 | -10 | -9 | 0 |
| Investments | |||||
| Past investments | 1 | -8 | -6 | -7 | 0 |
| Expected investments | 1 | -10 | -7 | -11 | -6 |
- * Average since 1989 for the composite indicator and since 1988 for the balances of opinion
- Source: INSEE, monthly business survey in services.
The business climate has improved in all sub-sectors, especially in accommodation and food services
In accommodation and food services, a sub-sector among the most affected by the health measures, the business climate has bounced back very sharply. At 114, the indicator that synthetizes it has gained 40 points - a rise comparable to the one observed in June 2020 - and has returned above its average (100), for the first time since February 2020. The balances about the prospects for the next three monts have bouced back very strongly.
In professional, scientific and technical activities and in administrative and support services, the business climate has also recovered very sharply: in those two sectors, the composite indicator has returned significantly above its average.
In real estate activities, the business climate has improved sharply and stands now well above its average. In road freight transport, the business climate has improved again and has further exceeded its long-term average. In information and communication, it has improved very slightly and remains above its average.
tableauBusiness climate composite indicator and balances of opinion by sub-sector in services
| Aggregated classification (NA 2008) at level A21 | Mean* | Feb. 2021 | Mar. 2021 | Apr. 2021 | May 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Road transport (8%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 97 | 102 | 104 | 109 |
| Past activity | -6 | -6 | -10 | 7 | 9 |
| Expected activity | -7 | -18 | -6 | -3 | 6 |
| Expected demand | -9 | -12 | -6 | -4 | 16 |
| Past employment | -6 | 0 | -5 | -7 | -9 |
| Expected employment | -7 | -12 | -3 | -1 | -4 |
| General outlook | -19 | -21 | -4 | -6 | 5 |
| Accommodation and food service activities (11%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 66 | 78 | 74 | 114 |
| Past activity | -8 | -57 | -39 | -43 | -32 |
| Expected activity | -8 | -54 | -38 | -43 | 14 |
| Expected demand | -10 | -49 | -40 | -42 | 20 |
| Past employment | -5 | -47 | -32 | -31 | -18 |
| Expected employment | -7 | -42 | -26 | -24 | 3 |
| General outlook | -15 | -65 | -44 | -55 | 10 |
| Information and communication (26%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 96 | 99 | 102 | 103 |
| Past activity | 7 | 15 | 14 | 16 | 20 |
| Expected activity | 9 | 8 | 11 | -5 | 6 |
| Expected demand | 9 | 13 | 10 | 5 | 11 |
| Past employment | 6 | -16 | -8 | 13 | 6 |
| Expected employment | 10 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 6 |
| General outlook | 0 | -9 | 1 | -1 | 8 |
| Real estate activities (11%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 92 | 102 | 101 | 109 |
| Past activity | 6 | -7 | 4 | -3 | -3 |
| Expected activity | 6 | -1 | 7 | 4 | 14 |
| Expected demand | 1 | -4 | 7 | 10 | 16 |
| Past employment | 2 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 2 |
| Expected employment | 2 | 0 | 6 | 10 | 13 |
| General outlook | -4 | -15 | -5 | -5 | 5 |
| Professional, scientific and technical activities (24%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 89 | 93 | 91 | 105 |
| Past activity | -1 | -13 | -15 | -9 | -5 |
| Expected activity | -3 | -15 | -14 | -12 | 3 |
| Expected demand | -6 | -19 | -11 | -13 | -1 |
| Past employment | 0 | -14 | -16 | -13 | -7 |
| Expected employment | 0 | -10 | -8 | -16 | -3 |
| General outlook | -9 | -18 | -10 | -17 | 4 |
| Administrative and support service activities (18%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 86 | 91 | 88 | 105 |
| Past activity | 5 | -11 | -14 | -16 | -1 |
| Expected activity | 4 | -12 | -11 | -11 | 5 |
| Expected demand | 3 | -16 | -7 | -12 | 15 |
| Past employment | 8 | -7 | -5 | -22 | -4 |
| Expected employment | 7 | 6 | 3 | -9 | 7 |
| General outlook | -4 | -24 | -12 | -12 | 9 |
- The figures in parentheses indicate the weights used to aggregate the sub-sector balances of opinion.
- *Composite indicator: average since 1989 (2006 for road transport); balances of opinion: average since 1988 (2006 for road transport)
- Source: INSEE, monthly business survey in services.
Revision
The business climate indicator of April 2021 in services, and in accommodation and food services and the one in professional, scientific and technical activities has been revised upwards by one point. These revisions are due to the inclusion of late responses from businesses.
For further information
A balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentage of “increase” responses and the percentage of “decrease” responses.
Since the definitive data of April 2020, the way of correcting mode of non-response has been modified. The usual method was to fill in missing answers by carrying on past answers from non-responding companies. The results are now computed on the sole basis of responding companies.
The responses to this survey were collected between 27 April and 20 May 2021.
Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of the web page of this publication.
Next issue: 24 June 2021 at 8:45 am
Documentation
Abbreviated methodology (pdf,185 Ko)
Pour en savoir plus
A balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentage of “increase” responses and the percentage of “decrease” responses.
Since the definitive data of April 2020, the way of correcting mode of non-response has been modified. The usual method was to fill in missing answers by carrying on past answers from non-responding companies. The results are now computed on the sole basis of responding companies.
The responses to this survey were collected between 27 April and 20 May 2021.
Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of the web page of this publication.
Next issue: 24 June 2021 at 8:45 am
Time series : Economic outlook surveys – Services