Informations Rapides ·
22 April 2021 · n° 106
In April 2021, the French business climate has faltered despite its improvement in
manufacturing Business indicator - April 2021
In April 2021, the business climate has deteriorated after a marked improvement in the previous month. The indicator that synthesizes it, calculated from the responses of business leaders in the main market sectors of activity, has lost two points. At 95, it stands below its long-term average (100).
This moderate decline is the result of the deterioration in the outlook for the tertiary sector, partly offset by a further improvement in the business climate in industry.
In retail trade, the climate has lost 5 points and stands well below its long-term average. In this sector, all forward-looking balances are affected, in connection with the strengthening of health measures at the end of March.
In the services sector, the climate has lost 3 points, due to the fall in most forward-looking balances, and also stands clearly below its average.
On the other hand, in manufacturing, the business climate has gained 5 points. At 104, he has returned above his average (100). In this sector, the balances of opinion on ordering intentions, on personal production prospects and on recent production have increased.
Finally, in building construction, the opinion of business leaders on the recent trend in their activity has improved while that of expected activity has darkened slightly. These two balances remain well above their respective averages.
In April 2021, the business climate indicator in France has fallen back
In April 2021, the business climate has deteriorated after a marked improvement in the previous month. The indicator that synthesizes it, calculated from the responses of business leaders in the main market sectors of activity, has lost two points. At 95, it stands below its long-term average (100).
This moderate decline is the result of the deterioration in the outlook for the tertiary sector, partly offset by a further improvement in the business climate in industry.
In retail trade, the climate has lost 5 points and stands well below its long-term average. In this sector, all forward-looking balances are affected, in connection with the strengthening of health measures at the end of March.
In the services sector, the climate has lost 3 points, due to the fall in most forward-looking balances, and also stands clearly below its average.
On the other hand, in manufacturing, the business climate has gained 5 points. At 104, he has returned above his average (100). In this sector, the balances of opinion on ordering intentions, on personal production prospects and on recent production have increased.
Finally, in building construction, the opinion of business leaders on the recent trend in their activity has improved while that of expected activity has darkened slightly. These two balances remain well above their respective averages.
tableauFrench business climate composite indicator
| French business climate composite indicator | |
|---|---|
| 2005-01 | 106.1 |
| 2005-02 | 106.3 |
| 2005-03 | 105.8 |
| 2005-04 | 105.0 |
| 2005-05 | 102.8 |
| 2005-06 | 103.9 |
| 2005-07 | 104.5 |
| 2005-08 | 104.4 |
| 2005-09 | 103.7 |
| 2005-10 | 106.5 |
| 2005-11 | 106.6 |
| 2005-12 | 107.9 |
| 2006-01 | 109.1 |
| 2006-02 | 107.4 |
| 2006-03 | 107.4 |
| 2006-04 | 108.2 |
| 2006-05 | 109.7 |
| 2006-06 | 109.2 |
| 2006-07 | 110.9 |
| 2006-08 | 111.1 |
| 2006-09 | 111.6 |
| 2006-10 | 111.5 |
| 2006-11 | 112.3 |
| 2006-12 | 110.8 |
| 2007-01 | 110.7 |
| 2007-02 | 112.3 |
| 2007-03 | 112.8 |
| 2007-04 | 113.4 |
| 2007-05 | 113.9 |
| 2007-06 | 115.0 |
| 2007-07 | 114.2 |
| 2007-08 | 113.0 |
| 2007-09 | 112.2 |
| 2007-10 | 111.4 |
| 2007-11 | 111.6 |
| 2007-12 | 111.3 |
| 2008-01 | 110.1 |
| 2008-02 | 108.7 |
| 2008-03 | 108.4 |
| 2008-04 | 105.8 |
| 2008-05 | 103.1 |
| 2008-06 | 100.3 |
| 2008-07 | 96.2 |
| 2008-08 | 94.9 |
| 2008-09 | 92.3 |
| 2008-10 | 83.9 |
| 2008-11 | 80.5 |
| 2008-12 | 77.0 |
| 2009-01 | 75.4 |
| 2009-02 | 73.1 |
| 2009-03 | 70.3 |
| 2009-04 | 71.4 |
| 2009-05 | 74.9 |
| 2009-06 | 77.6 |
| 2009-07 | 79.6 |
| 2009-08 | 83.4 |
| 2009-09 | 86.7 |
| 2009-10 | 89.2 |
| 2009-11 | 91.4 |
| 2009-12 | 91.9 |
| 2010-01 | 93.9 |
| 2010-02 | 94.3 |
| 2010-03 | 93.7 |
| 2010-04 | 97.7 |
| 2010-05 | 98.7 |
| 2010-06 | 98.4 |
| 2010-07 | 100.5 |
| 2010-08 | 102.8 |
| 2010-09 | 104.2 |
| 2010-10 | 105.2 |
| 2010-11 | 105.4 |
| 2010-12 | 107.1 |
| 2011-01 | 108.0 |
| 2011-02 | 108.7 |
| 2011-03 | 109.6 |
| 2011-04 | 109.3 |
| 2011-05 | 108.3 |
| 2011-06 | 108.6 |
| 2011-07 | 106.5 |
| 2011-08 | 101.4 |
| 2011-09 | 98.2 |
| 2011-10 | 97.0 |
| 2011-11 | 95.1 |
| 2011-12 | 93.7 |
| 2012-01 | 93.0 |
| 2012-02 | 93.0 |
| 2012-03 | 95.5 |
| 2012-04 | 96.1 |
| 2012-05 | 92.7 |
| 2012-06 | 91.7 |
| 2012-07 | 89.6 |
| 2012-08 | 89.2 |
| 2012-09 | 87.6 |
| 2012-10 | 85.7 |
| 2012-11 | 87.6 |
| 2012-12 | 88.2 |
| 2013-01 | 88.1 |
| 2013-02 | 88.0 |
| 2013-03 | 86.2 |
| 2013-04 | 84.7 |
| 2013-05 | 85.8 |
| 2013-06 | 86.9 |
| 2013-07 | 88.8 |
| 2013-08 | 92.0 |
| 2013-09 | 95.0 |
| 2013-10 | 94.8 |
| 2013-11 | 93.9 |
| 2013-12 | 93.8 |
| 2014-01 | 94.4 |
| 2014-02 | 94.3 |
| 2014-03 | 95.5 |
| 2014-04 | 95.4 |
| 2014-05 | 95.0 |
| 2014-06 | 93.9 |
| 2014-07 | 93.3 |
| 2014-08 | 92.1 |
| 2014-09 | 91.4 |
| 2014-10 | 91.5 |
| 2014-11 | 93.3 |
| 2014-12 | 93.5 |
| 2015-01 | 93.8 |
| 2015-02 | 94.6 |
| 2015-03 | 95.8 |
| 2015-04 | 96.8 |
| 2015-05 | 97.7 |
| 2015-06 | 98.5 |
| 2015-07 | 98.9 |
| 2015-08 | 100.4 |
| 2015-09 | 100.2 |
| 2015-10 | 101.1 |
| 2015-11 | 101.2 |
| 2015-12 | 99.7 |
| 2016-01 | 101.5 |
| 2016-02 | 100.6 |
| 2016-03 | 100.7 |
| 2016-04 | 100.7 |
| 2016-05 | 102.4 |
| 2016-06 | 100.8 |
| 2016-07 | 101.4 |
| 2016-08 | 101.1 |
| 2016-09 | 101.4 |
| 2016-10 | 101.7 |
| 2016-11 | 102.0 |
| 2016-12 | 104.2 |
| 2017-01 | 103.9 |
| 2017-02 | 104.4 |
| 2017-03 | 104.3 |
| 2017-04 | 104.6 |
| 2017-05 | 105.5 |
| 2017-06 | 107.1 |
| 2017-07 | 107.9 |
| 2017-08 | 108.9 |
| 2017-09 | 109.4 |
| 2017-10 | 109.3 |
| 2017-11 | 110.6 |
| 2017-12 | 111.6 |
| 2018-01 | 110.9 |
| 2018-02 | 109.9 |
| 2018-03 | 109.5 |
| 2018-04 | 108.7 |
| 2018-05 | 106.9 |
| 2018-06 | 106.7 |
| 2018-07 | 106.0 |
| 2018-08 | 105.5 |
| 2018-09 | 105.3 |
| 2018-10 | 104.2 |
| 2018-11 | 104.7 |
| 2018-12 | 101.9 |
| 2019-01 | 102.4 |
| 2019-02 | 103.4 |
| 2019-03 | 104.9 |
| 2019-04 | 105.6 |
| 2019-05 | 106.3 |
| 2019-06 | 106.4 |
| 2019-07 | 105.4 |
| 2019-08 | 105.6 |
| 2019-09 | 106.5 |
| 2019-10 | 105.7 |
| 2019-11 | 106.0 |
| 2019-12 | 105.3 |
| 2020-01 | 104.9 |
| 2020-02 | 105.3 |
| 2020-03 | 94.6 |
| 2020-04 | 53.8 |
| 2020-05 | 60.5 |
| 2020-06 | 78.7 |
| 2020-07 | 84.4 |
| 2020-08 | 90.6 |
| 2020-09 | 91.9 |
| 2020-10 | 90.2 |
| 2020-11 | 79.4 |
| 2020-12 | 91.2 |
| 2021-01 | 91.5 |
| 2021-02 | 90.4 |
| 2021-03 | 96.8 |
| 2021-04 | 95.3 |
graphiqueFrench business climate composite indicator
- Source: INSEE
tableauBusiness and employment climates
| Dec. 20 | Jan. 21 | Feb. 21 | Mar. 21 | Apr. 21 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business climates | |||||
| France | 91 | 91 | 90 | 97 | 95 |
| Manufacturing | 94 | 96 | 98 | 99 | 104 |
| Building construction* | n.d. | n.d. | n.d. | n.d. | n.d. |
| Services | 90 | 92 | 89 | 94 | 91 |
| Retail trade | 94 | 93 | 89 | 95 | 90 |
| Wholesale trade | 95 | 98 | |||
| Employment | 86 | 88 | 86 | 92 | 92 |
- * c.f. « For further information »
- Source: INSEE, Business tendency surveys
The employment climate is stable
At the same time, the employment climate is stable. At 92, it remains well below his average (100). The increase in the balances of opinion on the recent change in the workforce size in services excepting temporary employment agencies and in retail trade offsets the decrease in the balances on expected change in the workforce size in temporary employment agencies, in retail trade and in manufacturing.
tableauFrench employment climate composite indicator
| French employment climate composite indicator | |
|---|---|
| 2005-01 | 102.7 |
| 2005-02 | 102.3 |
| 2005-03 | 104.8 |
| 2005-04 | 102.5 |
| 2005-05 | 103.1 |
| 2005-06 | 102.5 |
| 2005-07 | 103.0 |
| 2005-08 | 103.6 |
| 2005-09 | 104.0 |
| 2005-10 | 104.3 |
| 2005-11 | 104.1 |
| 2005-12 | 103.5 |
| 2006-01 | 104.3 |
| 2006-02 | 104.3 |
| 2006-03 | 104.9 |
| 2006-04 | 107.2 |
| 2006-05 | 108.3 |
| 2006-06 | 110.2 |
| 2006-07 | 110.0 |
| 2006-08 | 109.2 |
| 2006-09 | 108.1 |
| 2006-10 | 109.2 |
| 2006-11 | 110.6 |
| 2006-12 | 111.1 |
| 2007-01 | 109.5 |
| 2007-02 | 111.4 |
| 2007-03 | 111.1 |
| 2007-04 | 111.8 |
| 2007-05 | 113.3 |
| 2007-06 | 113.0 |
| 2007-07 | 111.2 |
| 2007-08 | 112.6 |
| 2007-09 | 113.3 |
| 2007-10 | 111.7 |
| 2007-11 | 113.2 |
| 2007-12 | 114.6 |
| 2008-01 | 113.9 |
| 2008-02 | 114.0 |
| 2008-03 | 112.3 |
| 2008-04 | 112.6 |
| 2008-05 | 108.4 |
| 2008-06 | 105.0 |
| 2008-07 | 105.8 |
| 2008-08 | 101.2 |
| 2008-09 | 100.0 |
| 2008-10 | 95.6 |
| 2008-11 | 88.8 |
| 2008-12 | 83.9 |
| 2009-01 | 81.4 |
| 2009-02 | 79.9 |
| 2009-03 | 74.3 |
| 2009-04 | 74.9 |
| 2009-05 | 74.0 |
| 2009-06 | 75.2 |
| 2009-07 | 78.8 |
| 2009-08 | 83.4 |
| 2009-09 | 82.7 |
| 2009-10 | 84.8 |
| 2009-11 | 87.0 |
| 2009-12 | 89.4 |
| 2010-01 | 90.7 |
| 2010-02 | 91.2 |
| 2010-03 | 93.7 |
| 2010-04 | 95.8 |
| 2010-05 | 97.7 |
| 2010-06 | 98.8 |
| 2010-07 | 99.1 |
| 2010-08 | 99.5 |
| 2010-09 | 101.1 |
| 2010-10 | 103.8 |
| 2010-11 | 104.7 |
| 2010-12 | 105.5 |
| 2011-01 | 104.1 |
| 2011-02 | 110.1 |
| 2011-03 | 109.1 |
| 2011-04 | 109.3 |
| 2011-05 | 110.8 |
| 2011-06 | 111.0 |
| 2011-07 | 109.4 |
| 2011-08 | 105.4 |
| 2011-09 | 103.6 |
| 2011-10 | 100.7 |
| 2011-11 | 100.8 |
| 2011-12 | 99.1 |
| 2012-01 | 97.9 |
| 2012-02 | 97.5 |
| 2012-03 | 99.1 |
| 2012-04 | 98.0 |
| 2012-05 | 95.3 |
| 2012-06 | 94.3 |
| 2012-07 | 92.8 |
| 2012-08 | 93.8 |
| 2012-09 | 91.7 |
| 2012-10 | 92.1 |
| 2012-11 | 90.6 |
| 2012-12 | 90.2 |
| 2013-01 | 92.7 |
| 2013-02 | 89.6 |
| 2013-03 | 88.8 |
| 2013-04 | 87.4 |
| 2013-05 | 86.9 |
| 2013-06 | 89.5 |
| 2013-07 | 90.6 |
| 2013-08 | 91.3 |
| 2013-09 | 92.6 |
| 2013-10 | 95.0 |
| 2013-11 | 93.4 |
| 2013-12 | 95.4 |
| 2014-01 | 95.6 |
| 2014-02 | 94.9 |
| 2014-03 | 95.7 |
| 2014-04 | 98.3 |
| 2014-05 | 97.3 |
| 2014-06 | 95.7 |
| 2014-07 | 96.2 |
| 2014-08 | 94.9 |
| 2014-09 | 95.0 |
| 2014-10 | 94.9 |
| 2014-11 | 94.7 |
| 2014-12 | 95.1 |
| 2015-01 | 94.2 |
| 2015-02 | 96.3 |
| 2015-03 | 95.8 |
| 2015-04 | 97.8 |
| 2015-05 | 97.9 |
| 2015-06 | 99.6 |
| 2015-07 | 100.0 |
| 2015-08 | 100.8 |
| 2015-09 | 100.5 |
| 2015-10 | 100.9 |
| 2015-11 | 101.8 |
| 2015-12 | 101.1 |
| 2016-01 | 102.2 |
| 2016-02 | 100.9 |
| 2016-03 | 99.9 |
| 2016-04 | 100.8 |
| 2016-05 | 102.4 |
| 2016-06 | 101.8 |
| 2016-07 | 104.2 |
| 2016-08 | 103.5 |
| 2016-09 | 104.8 |
| 2016-10 | 105.0 |
| 2016-11 | 105.0 |
| 2016-12 | 106.7 |
| 2017-01 | 105.4 |
| 2017-02 | 104.7 |
| 2017-03 | 107.5 |
| 2017-04 | 106.6 |
| 2017-05 | 107.3 |
| 2017-06 | 107.9 |
| 2017-07 | 107.4 |
| 2017-08 | 105.9 |
| 2017-09 | 107.0 |
| 2017-10 | 108.6 |
| 2017-11 | 108.4 |
| 2017-12 | 108.9 |
| 2018-01 | 109.4 |
| 2018-02 | 110.1 |
| 2018-03 | 109.9 |
| 2018-04 | 109.2 |
| 2018-05 | 109.4 |
| 2018-06 | 110.1 |
| 2018-07 | 108.5 |
| 2018-08 | 107.7 |
| 2018-09 | 107.4 |
| 2018-10 | 107.3 |
| 2018-11 | 105.5 |
| 2018-12 | 104.9 |
| 2019-01 | 105.4 |
| 2019-02 | 107.1 |
| 2019-03 | 107.3 |
| 2019-04 | 107.2 |
| 2019-05 | 105.3 |
| 2019-06 | 106.6 |
| 2019-07 | 106.3 |
| 2019-08 | 105.3 |
| 2019-09 | 106.1 |
| 2019-10 | 105.9 |
| 2019-11 | 106.5 |
| 2019-12 | 106.7 |
| 2020-01 | 105.0 |
| 2020-02 | 105.2 |
| 2020-03 | 96.5 |
| 2020-04 | 49.6 |
| 2020-05 | 53.9 |
| 2020-06 | 67.6 |
| 2020-07 | 77.0 |
| 2020-08 | 88.1 |
| 2020-09 | 92.4 |
| 2020-10 | 89.6 |
| 2020-11 | 84.1 |
| 2020-12 | 85.9 |
| 2021-01 | 87.9 |
| 2021-02 | 85.6 |
| 2021-03 | 91.8 |
| 2021-04 | 91.7 |
graphiqueFrench employment climate composite indicator
- Source: INSEE
Revisions
The business climates in manufacturing as well as the one in retail trade and in trade and repair of vehicles as a whole of March 2021 have been revised upwards by one point. The business climate in services of March 2021 has been revised downwards by one point. These revisions are mainly explained by the inclusion of late responses from companies.
For further information
The business climate indicator summarises the information provided by the surveys in manufacturing, services, trade (retail and wholesale), and building construction. It is built from 26 balances of opinion from these surveys. The employment indicator is based on the 10 balances of employment, past and expected, from the surveys in manufacturing, services, retail trade and building construction.
The balances of opinion concerning employment in services that are used in the employment climate distinguish the services excluding temporary work employment sector from temporary work agencies. For the latter, the balances on past and expected workforce size are not weighted, unlike the other sectors.
Specifically concerning the building industry, all the balances of opinion resulting from the survey are published in the Informations Rapides issue dedicated to this sector and in the additional series available online. However, it appeared during the health crisis that the synthetic indicator usually calculated from some of these balances of opinion tended to smooth fluctuations in activity measured in the building industry. This is why an overhaul of this synthetic indicator is currently being studied in this sector in order to, if possible, improve its predictive qualities. The French business climate indicator has continued to take into account all the sectors studied, including the building construction industry; its methodology is unchanged.
Finally, since the definitive data of April 2020, the way of correcting non-response has been modified. The usual method was to fill in missing answers by carrying on past answers from non-responding companies. Results are now computed on the sole basis of responding units.
Next issue: 26 May 2021 at 08:45 am
Documentation
Abbreviated Methodology (pdf,130 Ko)
Pour en savoir plus
The business climate indicator summarises the information provided by the surveys in manufacturing, services, trade (retail and wholesale), and building construction. It is built from 26 balances of opinion from these surveys. The employment indicator is based on the 10 balances of employment, past and expected, from the surveys in manufacturing, services, retail trade and building construction.
The balances of opinion concerning employment in services that are used in the employment climate distinguish the services excluding temporary work employment sector from temporary work agencies. For the latter, the balances on past and expected workforce size are not weighted, unlike the other sectors.
Specifically concerning the building industry, all the balances of opinion resulting from the survey are published in the Informations Rapides issue dedicated to this sector and in the additional series available online. However, it appeared during the health crisis that the synthetic indicator usually calculated from some of these balances of opinion tended to smooth fluctuations in activity measured in the building industry. This is why an overhaul of this synthetic indicator is currently being studied in this sector in order to, if possible, improve its predictive qualities. The French business climate indicator has continued to take into account all the sectors studied, including the building construction industry; its methodology is unchanged.
Finally, since the definitive data of April 2020, the way of correcting non-response has been modified. The usual method was to fill in missing answers by carrying on past answers from non-responding companies. Results are now computed on the sole basis of responding units.
Next issue: 26 May 2021 at 08:45 am