Informations Rapides · 25 March 2021 · n° 73

The business climate in wholesale trade has further improved in March 2021 Bi-monthly survey of wholesaling - March 2021

According to the business managers surveyed in March 2021, the business climate in wholesale trade has improved between January and March, though less swiftly than between November and January. The composite indicator has gained 3 points and stands at 98, nearby its long-term average (100). Among the several sub-sectors, the wholesale trade for information and communication equipment has stood out by its dynamism.

The balance of opinion on the general business outlook has grown steeply from January to March and has exceeded its long-term average. The one related to ordering intentions has risen markedly and has come closer to its average. Both have reached their highest level since January 2020, although still below their pre-crisis level.

At the sub-sector level, the balance on ordering intentions over the next two months of wholesalers of information and communication equipment has leaped by 28 points, to a level unseen since July 2010. Besides, this balance of opinion has climbed beyond its long period average in the wholesale trade of “other industrial capital goods” and in the wholesale trade of household goods. In the other sub-sectors, it has been stable or has slightly improved, below its average.

From January to March 2021, the balance of opinion on the past two months sales of wholesale trade as a whole has been virtually stable, close to its long-term average. The balance on received merchandise has remained at its January level, below its mean.

The sub-sectorial picture is more mixed. On the one hand, the balance of opinion on the past sales of wholesalers of information and communication equipment and of wholesalers of “other industrial capital goods” has increased strongly. But on the other hand, the balance of opinion on the past sales of raw agricultural products and of food products wholesalers has stabilised, far beneath its long-term average. At last, this balance of opinion has fallen back sharply in the “other specialised wholesale trade” (fuels, building materials, chemicals, and the like).

Wholesalers have deemed that their supply from abroad have decreased over the last two months and will further decrease over the next two months. Indeed, the balances of opinion related to deliveries received from abroad and on ordering intentions from abroad have declined. Both now lie below their long-term average. Conversely, the balance of opinion on recent sales abroad and the one on shipments abroad have increased markedly, thus surpassing their average.

The balance of opinion regarding the forecasted change in workforce size has been virtually stable and remains above its average. The balance regarding the recent change in workforce size has clearly bounced back after a small slide between November and January probably linked to the second lockdown.

In March, the balances of opinion regarding past and expected selling prices have carried on with their strong hike started in January. Both have exceeded their long-term average and stand at their highest level since 2011.

Fewer wholesalers in March than in January have considered their cash flow situation to be difficult. The related balance has somewhat improved.

The business climate indicator in wholesale trade of January 2021 has been updated upwards by one point, from 94 to 95, as a result of the integration of belated business answers.