Informations Rapides ·
25 March 2021 · n° 78
In March 2021, the business climate has recovered sharply in services Monthly survey of services - March 2021
According to the business managers surveyed in March 2021, the business climate in services has recovered sharply. At 95, the business climate indicator that synthetizes it has gained 6 points and has returned to its level of September 2020 but stands still below its long-term average (100).
The responses to this survey were collected between 26 February and 22 March 2021, i.e., for the vast majority, before the announcement on Thursday 18 March of new measures to fight against the Covid-19 epidemic in 16 departments.
According to the business managers surveyed in March 2021, the business climate in services has recovered sharply. At 95, the business climate indicator that synthetizes it has gained 6 points and has returned to its level of September 2020 but stands still below its long-term average (100).
tableauBusiness climate composite indicator
| Business climate composite indicator | |
|---|---|
| 2005-01 | 106.9 |
| 2005-02 | 106.7 |
| 2005-03 | 108.6 |
| 2005-04 | 108.3 |
| 2005-05 | 106.4 |
| 2005-06 | 108.6 |
| 2005-07 | 108.0 |
| 2005-08 | 107.6 |
| 2005-09 | 107.3 |
| 2005-10 | 108.8 |
| 2005-11 | 106.8 |
| 2005-12 | 107.1 |
| 2006-01 | 109.0 |
| 2006-02 | 106.6 |
| 2006-03 | 107.9 |
| 2006-04 | 108.2 |
| 2006-05 | 110.7 |
| 2006-06 | 109.4 |
| 2006-07 | 110.5 |
| 2006-08 | 110.6 |
| 2006-09 | 110.8 |
| 2006-10 | 111.1 |
| 2006-11 | 113.2 |
| 2006-12 | 111.6 |
| 2007-01 | 111.1 |
| 2007-02 | 112.4 |
| 2007-03 | 113.4 |
| 2007-04 | 113.2 |
| 2007-05 | 113.1 |
| 2007-06 | 112.7 |
| 2007-07 | 113.2 |
| 2007-08 | 112.4 |
| 2007-09 | 111.7 |
| 2007-10 | 110.4 |
| 2007-11 | 110.5 |
| 2007-12 | 109.5 |
| 2008-01 | 110.7 |
| 2008-02 | 109.0 |
| 2008-03 | 109.1 |
| 2008-04 | 107.6 |
| 2008-05 | 105.2 |
| 2008-06 | 102.1 |
| 2008-07 | 98.0 |
| 2008-08 | 96.5 |
| 2008-09 | 94.5 |
| 2008-10 | 86.2 |
| 2008-11 | 82.3 |
| 2008-12 | 79.3 |
| 2009-01 | 76.8 |
| 2009-02 | 75.6 |
| 2009-03 | 70.6 |
| 2009-04 | 70.8 |
| 2009-05 | 74.7 |
| 2009-06 | 79.1 |
| 2009-07 | 82.7 |
| 2009-08 | 85.2 |
| 2009-09 | 88.3 |
| 2009-10 | 91.4 |
| 2009-11 | 92.8 |
| 2009-12 | 93.3 |
| 2010-01 | 94.7 |
| 2010-02 | 94.9 |
| 2010-03 | 95.1 |
| 2010-04 | 98.2 |
| 2010-05 | 99.8 |
| 2010-06 | 98.9 |
| 2010-07 | 99.7 |
| 2010-08 | 101.2 |
| 2010-09 | 102.2 |
| 2010-10 | 103.4 |
| 2010-11 | 105.2 |
| 2010-12 | 107.2 |
| 2011-01 | 107.4 |
| 2011-02 | 109.6 |
| 2011-03 | 110.7 |
| 2011-04 | 109.4 |
| 2011-05 | 108.1 |
| 2011-06 | 107.6 |
| 2011-07 | 105.7 |
| 2011-08 | 101.4 |
| 2011-09 | 99.3 |
| 2011-10 | 98.2 |
| 2011-11 | 96.1 |
| 2011-12 | 95.7 |
| 2012-01 | 93.9 |
| 2012-02 | 93.3 |
| 2012-03 | 94.6 |
| 2012-04 | 96.6 |
| 2012-05 | 93.1 |
| 2012-06 | 91.1 |
| 2012-07 | 90.7 |
| 2012-08 | 88.7 |
| 2012-09 | 88.4 |
| 2012-10 | 87.2 |
| 2012-11 | 86.7 |
| 2012-12 | 88.2 |
| 2013-01 | 89.2 |
| 2013-02 | 88.0 |
| 2013-03 | 85.3 |
| 2013-04 | 84.4 |
| 2013-05 | 85.8 |
| 2013-06 | 87.1 |
| 2013-07 | 87.6 |
| 2013-08 | 89.5 |
| 2013-09 | 93.0 |
| 2013-10 | 92.5 |
| 2013-11 | 93.2 |
| 2013-12 | 91.8 |
| 2014-01 | 93.1 |
| 2014-02 | 92.9 |
| 2014-03 | 93.8 |
| 2014-04 | 94.1 |
| 2014-05 | 93.1 |
| 2014-06 | 93.1 |
| 2014-07 | 93.3 |
| 2014-08 | 92.4 |
| 2014-09 | 91.9 |
| 2014-10 | 92.1 |
| 2014-11 | 92.1 |
| 2014-12 | 92.1 |
| 2015-01 | 91.9 |
| 2015-02 | 92.2 |
| 2015-03 | 93.0 |
| 2015-04 | 94.6 |
| 2015-05 | 96.1 |
| 2015-06 | 97.4 |
| 2015-07 | 98.1 |
| 2015-08 | 99.1 |
| 2015-09 | 98.2 |
| 2015-10 | 100.1 |
| 2015-11 | 99.8 |
| 2015-12 | 97.7 |
| 2016-01 | 100.6 |
| 2016-02 | 100.4 |
| 2016-03 | 100.1 |
| 2016-04 | 98.9 |
| 2016-05 | 101.3 |
| 2016-06 | 99.7 |
| 2016-07 | 100.9 |
| 2016-08 | 100.5 |
| 2016-09 | 101.3 |
| 2016-10 | 101.3 |
| 2016-11 | 101.3 |
| 2016-12 | 104.0 |
| 2017-01 | 102.1 |
| 2017-02 | 103.2 |
| 2017-03 | 103.7 |
| 2017-04 | 103.6 |
| 2017-05 | 103.2 |
| 2017-06 | 103.9 |
| 2017-07 | 104.2 |
| 2017-08 | 106.2 |
| 2017-09 | 106.9 |
| 2017-10 | 107.1 |
| 2017-11 | 107.7 |
| 2017-12 | 109.0 |
| 2018-01 | 108.0 |
| 2018-02 | 106.8 |
| 2018-03 | 107.0 |
| 2018-04 | 106.2 |
| 2018-05 | 104.7 |
| 2018-06 | 105.2 |
| 2018-07 | 104.7 |
| 2018-08 | 104.1 |
| 2018-09 | 104.8 |
| 2018-10 | 103.6 |
| 2018-11 | 104.1 |
| 2018-12 | 102.5 |
| 2019-01 | 103.9 |
| 2019-02 | 103.8 |
| 2019-03 | 105.0 |
| 2019-04 | 105.8 |
| 2019-05 | 106.1 |
| 2019-06 | 106.5 |
| 2019-07 | 105.4 |
| 2019-08 | 105.1 |
| 2019-09 | 106.0 |
| 2019-10 | 106.1 |
| 2019-11 | 106.5 |
| 2019-12 | 106.8 |
| 2020-01 | 106.4 |
| 2020-02 | 106.2 |
| 2020-03 | 93.3 |
| 2020-04 | 42.1 |
| 2020-05 | 52.3 |
| 2020-06 | 78.6 |
| 2020-07 | 88.7 |
| 2020-08 | 93.3 |
| 2020-09 | 94.7 |
| 2020-10 | 89.1 |
| 2020-11 | 78.3 |
| 2020-12 | 90.3 |
| 2021-01 | 91.7 |
| 2021-02 | 88.5 |
| 2021-03 | 94.7 |
graphiqueBusiness climate composite indicator
- Source: INSEE
Business managers’ expectations have bounced back strongly
In March 2021, business leaders are more optimistic overall than in the previous month. The balance of opinion on the general outlook for the sector activity has bounced back sharply; it has almost reached its long-term average. The balance on expected demand for the next three months and the one on expected activity have also bouced back but remain below their respective average.
Similarly, the balance of opinion on activity over the past three months has improved again in March but without recovering its long-term average.
The balance of opinion on the recent change in selling prices has decreased very slightly and the one on the expected change in selling prices has increased a little. They remain below their average level.
About employment, the balance of opinion on the change in worforce size over the last three months has recovered sharply but remains well below its average. Regarding the balance on expected workforce size, it has increased slightly for the fourth consecutive month but also remains below its average.
The balance of opinion on investment, both past and expected, have increased again but remain below their average level.
tableauEconomic outlook in the services sector
| Average* | Dec. 2020 | Jan. 2021 | Feb. 2021 | Mar. 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Composite indicator | 100 | 90 | 92 | 89 | 95 |
| General outlook | -8 | -18 | -16 | -21 | -9 |
| Past activity | 1 | -9 | -12 | -9 | -6 |
| Expected activity | 1 | -10 | -7 | -12 | -6 |
| Expected demand | -1 | -11 | -8 | -12 | -6 |
| Past selling prices | -4 | -6 | -8 | -9 | -10 |
| Expected selling prices | -3 | -8 | -9 | -11 | -9 |
| Past employment | 2 | -3 | -9 | -16 | -10 |
| except temporary work agencies | 0 | -15 | -20 | -20 | -12 |
| Expected employment | 2 | -13 | -11 | -8 | -6 |
| except temporary work agencies | -1 | -19 | -16 | -16 | -11 |
| Investments | |||||
| Past investments | 1 | -9 | -12 | -8 | -6 |
| Expected investments | 1 | -6 | -11 | -10 | -7 |
- * Average since 1989 for the composite indicator and since 1988 for the balances of opinion
- Source: INSEE, monthly business survey in services.
The business climate has improved sharply in all service sub-sectors
In March 2021, the business climate in services has improved to varying degrees in all service sub-sectors. Some subsectors' business climates have even returned above their long-term average
In the road freight transport as well as in real estate activities, the business climate has improved again, more sharply than in February and has gone above its average. In information and communication, the business climate has recovered and has reached its average level.
In professional, scientific and technical activities and in administrative and support services, the business climate has improved significantly: the composite indicator has bounced back sharply but stands still below its average.
In accommodation and food services, a sub-sector among the most affected by the health measures, the business climate has improved sharply. At 76, the indicator has gained 10 points but stands still at a very low level. The balances of opinion on the general outlook for the sector activity and on expected activity have advanced in March but remain well below their average level.
tableauBusiness climate composite indicator and balances of opinion by sub-sector in services
| Aggregated classification (NA 2008) at level A21 | Mean* | Dec. 2020 | Jan. 2021 | Feb. 2021 | Mar. 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Road transport (8%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 99 | 95 | 97 | 102 |
| Past activity | -6 | 2 | -9 | -6 | -10 |
| Expected activity | -7 | -11 | -18 | -18 | -6 |
| Expected demand | -9 | -13 | -19 | -12 | -6 |
| Past employment | -6 | 2 | -1 | 0 | -4 |
| Expected employment | -7 | -8 | -19 | -12 | -4 |
| General outlook | -19 | -21 | -22 | -21 | -5 |
| Accommodation and food service activities (11%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 68 | 73 | 66 | 76 |
| Past activity | -8 | -58 | -70 | -57 | -41 |
| Expected activity | -8 | -48 | -44 | -54 | -40 |
| Expected demand | -10 | -46 | -33 | -49 | -48 |
| Past employment | -5 | -51 | -58 | -47 | -33 |
| Expected employment | -7 | -46 | -36 | -42 | -31 |
| General outlook | -15 | -64 | -55 | -65 | -43 |
| Information and communication (26%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 97 | 98 | 96 | 100 |
| Past activity | 7 | 4 | 8 | 15 | 13 |
| Expected activity | 9 | 9 | 15 | 8 | 11 |
| Expected demand | 9 | 7 | 16 | 13 | 10 |
| Past employment | 5 | 7 | -8 | -16 | -6 |
| Expected employment | 10 | -3 | -2 | 1 | 2 |
| General outlook | 0 | -5 | -3 | -9 | 1 |
| Real estate activities (11%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 88 | 88 | 92 | 101 |
| Past activity | 6 | -11 | -6 | -7 | 3 |
| Expected activity | 6 | -12 | -8 | -1 | 8 |
| Expected demand | 1 | -4 | -4 | -4 | 7 |
| Past employment | 2 | 4 | -4 | 5 | 3 |
| Expected employment | 2 | -2 | -8 | 0 | 5 |
| General outlook | -4 | -12 | -14 | -15 | -5 |
| Professional, scientific and technical activities (24%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 91 | 90 | 89 | 96 |
| Past activity | -1 | -7 | -13 | -13 | -9 |
| Expected activity | -3 | -16 | -12 | -15 | -7 |
| Expected demand | -6 | -17 | -18 | -19 | -7 |
| Past employment | 1 | -12 | -13 | -14 | -12 |
| Expected employment | 0 | -7 | -15 | -10 | -8 |
| General outlook | -9 | -17 | -14 | -18 | -10 |
| Administrative and support service activities (18%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 92 | 92 | 86 | 91 |
| Past activity | 5 | 1 | -10 | -11 | -10 |
| Expected activity | 5 | -9 | -5 | -12 | -10 |
| Expected demand | 3 | -7 | -8 | -16 | -7 |
| Past employment | 8 | 23 | 17 | -7 | -1 |
| Expected employment | 7 | -9 | 3 | 6 | 4 |
| General outlook | -4 | -14 | -16 | -24 | -12 |
- The figures in parentheses indicate the weights used to aggregate the sub-sector balances of opinion.
- *Composite indicator: average since 1989 (2006 for road transport); balances of opinion: average since 1988 (2006 for road transport)
- Source: INSEE, monthly business survey in services.
Revision
The business climate indicator of February 2021 has been revised upwards by one point due to the inclusion of late responses from businesses.
For further information
A balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentage of “increase” responses and the percentage of “decrease” responses.
Since the definitive data of April 2020, the way of correcting mode of non-response has been modified. The usual method was to fill in missing answers by carrying on past answers from non-responding companies. The results are now computed on the sole basis of responding companies.
Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of the web page of this publication.
Next issue: 22 April 2021 at 8:45 am
Documentation
Abbreviated methodology (pdf,185 Ko)
Pour en savoir plus
A balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentage of “increase” responses and the percentage of “decrease” responses.
Since the definitive data of April 2020, the way of correcting mode of non-response has been modified. The usual method was to fill in missing answers by carrying on past answers from non-responding companies. The results are now computed on the sole basis of responding companies.
Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of the web page of this publication.
Next issue: 22 April 2021 at 8:45 am
Time series : Economic outlook surveys – Services