Informations Rapides ·
25 February 2021 · n° 48
In Q4 2020, prices of second-hand dwellings accelerated again Notaries-INSEE second-hand dwellings price index - fourth quarter 2020
In Q4 2020, the rise in prices of second-hand dwellings in France (excluding Mayotte) increased: +2.4% compared to Q3 2020 (provisional seasonally adjusted results), after +0.6% in Q3 and +1.4% in Q2 2020.
Over a year, the rise in prices continued: +6.5%, after +5.2% and +5.6%. For the first time since the end of 2016, this increase was larger for houses (+6.6% over the year) than for flats (+6.3%).
- Prices of second-hand dwellings in Île-de-France accelerated again, after a weaker increase in the previous quarter
- Prices of second-hand dwellings accelerated in provincial France too
- The annual number of transactions started rising again at the end of December 2020
- Revisions
- For further information
In Q4 2020, the rise in prices of second-hand dwellings in France (excluding Mayotte) increased: +2.4% compared to Q3 2020 (provisional seasonally adjusted results), after +0.6% in Q3 and +1.4% in Q2 2020.
Over a year, the rise in prices continued: +6.5%, after +5.2% and +5.6%. For the first time since the end of 2016, this increase was larger for houses (+6.6% over the year) than for flats (+6.3%).
tableauVariation in prices of second-hand dwellings in France over a year
| France - flats | France | France - houses | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2011-Q1 | 9.5 | 7.1 | 5.3 |
| 2011-Q2 | 10.0 | 7.1 | 4.9 |
| 2011-Q3 | 8.8 | 6.2 | 4.2 |
| 2011-Q4 | 6.2 | 3.7 | 1.8 |
| 2012-Q1 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 |
| 2012-Q2 | 1.0 | -0.3 | -1.2 |
| 2012-Q3 | -0.8 | -1.7 | -2.3 |
| 2012-Q4 | -1.4 | -2.1 | -2.6 |
| 2013-Q1 | -1.5 | -2.0 | -2.4 |
| 2013-Q2 | -1.9 | -2.2 | -2.5 |
| 2013-Q3 | -1.7 | -2.3 | -2.8 |
| 2013-Q4 | -1.8 | -1.9 | -2.0 |
| 2014-Q1 | -1.4 | -1.9 | -2.2 |
| 2014-Q2 | -1.3 | -1.4 | -1.4 |
| 2014-Q3 | -2.0 | -1.4 | -1.0 |
| 2014-Q4 | -2.4 | -2.5 | -2.6 |
| 2015-Q1 | -2.8 | -2.4 | -2.1 |
| 2015-Q2 | -3.0 | -2.6 | -2.4 |
| 2015-Q3 | -2.0 | -1.8 | -1.6 |
| 2015-Q4 | -1.1 | -0.4 | 0.2 |
| 2016-Q1 | -0.4 | 0.3 | 0.9 |
| 2016-Q2 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.7 |
| 2016-Q3 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 1.5 |
| 2016-Q4 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| 2017-Q1 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 2.1 |
| 2017-Q2 | 3.7 | 3.1 | 2.6 |
| 2017-Q3 | 4.5 | 3.2 | 2.4 |
| 2017-Q4 | 4.3 | 3.3 | 2.5 |
| 2018-Q1 | 3.8 | 2.9 | 2.3 |
| 2018-Q2 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 2.5 |
| 2018-Q3 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 2.6 |
| 2018-Q4 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 3.1 |
| 2019-Q1 | 3.8 | 3.0 | 2.5 |
| 2019-Q2 | 4.3 | 3.1 | 2.3 |
| 2019-Q3 | 4.0 | 3.2 | 2.5 |
| 2019-Q4 | 5.3 | 3.7 | 2.6 |
| 2020-Q1 | 6.4 | 4.9 | 3.9 |
| 2020-Q2 | 7.0 | 5.6 | 4.7 |
| 2020-Q3 | 6.6 | 5.2 | 4.3 |
| 2020-Q4 | 6.3 | 6.5 | 6.6 |
graphiqueVariation in prices of second-hand dwellings in France over a year
- Scope: France (excluding Mayotte).
- Sources: Insee, ADSN-BIEN-Grand Paris notaries, French notaries, Perval society.
tableauVariation in prices of second-hand dwellings in France
| change in | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 months (S.A.) | 12 months | |||||
| 2020 Q2(d) | 2020 Q3(d) | 2020 Q4(p) | 2020 Q2(d) | 2020 Q3(d) | 2020 Q4(p) | |
| France | 1.4 | 0.6 | 2.4 | 5.6 | 5.2 | 6.5 |
| Flats | 1.7 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 7.0 | 6.6 | 6.3 |
| Houses | 1.2 | 0.4 | 3.1 | 4.7 | 4.3 | 6.6 |
- (p): provisional; (d): definitive.
- Scope: France (excluding Mayotte).
- Sources: Insee, ADSN – BIEN – Grand Paris notaries, French notaries, Perval society.
Prices of second-hand dwellings in Île-de-France accelerated again, after a weaker increase in the previous quarter
In Q4 2020, prices of second-hand dwellings in Île-de-France increased at a faster pace than in the previous quarter: +1.7% compared to Q3 2020, after +0.5% and +1.8%.
Over a year, prices are still rising sharply: +6.4% between Q4 2019 and Q4 2020, after +6.1% in Q3 2020 and +6.6% in Q2 2020. For the first time since 2016, this increase was stronger for prices of houses, which increased by +7.0% over the year, while prices of flats increased by +6.1%. In Paris, prices of flats slowed down: +5.4% over a year in the fourth quarter of 2020, after +7.0% in Q3 2020 and +7.8% in Q2 2020. Excluding Paris, the annual increase in prices of second-hand dwellings in Île-de-France continued: +6.9%, after +5.7% in Q3 2020 and +6.0% in Q2 2020.
Prices of second-hand dwellings accelerated in provincial France too
In Q4 2020, prices of second-hand dwellings in provincial France increased by +2.7%, which was a substantially higher rise than in Q3 2020 (+0.5%), but also a stronger rise than in Q2 2020 (+1.3%).
Over a year, the rise in prices increased: +6.5% between Q4 2019 and Q4 2020, after +4.9% and +5.3%. Contrary to what was observed in Île-de-France, the rise in prices of flats (+6.6% y-o-y) remained slightly stronger than the rise in prices of houses (+6.4%).
tableauSecond-hand dwellings price index in metropolitan France
| Province - flats | Province - houses | Île-de-France - flats | Île-de-France - houses | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000-Q1 | 45.7 | 53.1 | 38.4 | 52.2 |
| 2000-Q2 | 46.4 | 54.0 | 39.4 | 52.9 |
| 2000-Q3 | 47.3 | 55.2 | 40.3 | 54.1 |
| 2000-Q4 | 47.8 | 56.1 | 40.9 | 54.8 |
| 2001-Q1 | 48.9 | 57.3 | 41.9 | 55.8 |
| 2001-Q2 | 50.0 | 58.6 | 42.5 | 57.5 |
| 2001-Q3 | 50.5 | 59.6 | 43.5 | 58.0 |
| 2001-Q4 | 51.8 | 60.7 | 44.2 | 58.5 |
| 2002-Q1 | 52.8 | 62.0 | 44.8 | 58.8 |
| 2002-Q2 | 54.3 | 63.4 | 46.1 | 60.1 |
| 2002-Q3 | 56.2 | 65.2 | 47.4 | 61.4 |
| 2002-Q4 | 58.0 | 67.0 | 48.8 | 62.2 |
| 2003-Q1 | 59.7 | 68.5 | 50.3 | 63.5 |
| 2003-Q2 | 62.0 | 70.4 | 51.9 | 65.0 |
| 2003-Q3 | 64.4 | 72.3 | 53.3 | 66.8 |
| 2003-Q4 | 66.6 | 74.6 | 55.1 | 69.7 |
| 2004-Q1 | 70.3 | 77.1 | 57.2 | 72.0 |
| 2004-Q2 | 73.0 | 79.5 | 59.4 | 74.1 |
| 2004-Q3 | 76.2 | 82.2 | 61.4 | 77.0 |
| 2004-Q4 | 79.5 | 85.3 | 63.8 | 79.4 |
| 2005-Q1 | 82.5 | 88.4 | 66.2 | 82.1 |
| 2005-Q2 | 86.1 | 91.2 | 68.6 | 85.4 |
| 2005-Q3 | 89.0 | 94.3 | 71.5 | 88.4 |
| 2005-Q4 | 92.1 | 96.8 | 73.5 | 91.8 |
| 2006-Q1 | 95.3 | 99.5 | 75.8 | 95.0 |
| 2006-Q2 | 97.6 | 101.9 | 78.0 | 97.5 |
| 2006-Q3 | 100.0 | 103.8 | 79.5 | 99.5 |
| 2006-Q4 | 101.9 | 105.9 | 81.0 | 100.7 |
| 2007-Q1 | 102.7 | 107.2 | 82.6 | 103.5 |
| 2007-Q2 | 103.6 | 108.6 | 84.0 | 104.5 |
| 2007-Q3 | 104.8 | 109.6 | 85.4 | 105.0 |
| 2007-Q4 | 106.3 | 110.9 | 87.6 | 106.3 |
| 2008-Q1 | 106.7 | 111.3 | 88.4 | 105.9 |
| 2008-Q2 | 106.4 | 110.3 | 89.2 | 105.9 |
| 2008-Q3 | 104.8 | 108.9 | 89.0 | 104.4 |
| 2008-Q4 | 102.3 | 105.2 | 87.6 | 101.0 |
| 2009-Q1 | 99.5 | 101.9 | 84.7 | 95.8 |
| 2009-Q2 | 98.0 | 100.0 | 82.3 | 92.8 |
| 2009-Q3 | 98.3 | 99.9 | 82.7 | 93.2 |
| 2009-Q4 | 99.3 | 100.9 | 84.1 | 93.8 |
| 2010-Q1 | 101.0 | 102.4 | 86.8 | 97.2 |
| 2010-Q2 | 102.4 | 103.6 | 89.4 | 98.8 |
| 2010-Q3 | 103.9 | 104.7 | 92.0 | 100.0 |
| 2010-Q4 | 105.4 | 106.4 | 95.6 | 102.0 |
| 2011-Q1 | 106.1 | 107.2 | 99.2 | 103.8 |
| 2011-Q2 | 107.2 | 108.1 | 103.4 | 105.7 |
| 2011-Q3 | 108.0 | 108.4 | 105.0 | 107.0 |
| 2011-Q4 | 108.0 | 107.7 | 105.5 | 107.1 |
| 2012-Q1 | 107.8 | 107.1 | 105.1 | 106.9 |
| 2012-Q2 | 107.2 | 106.5 | 105.2 | 106.2 |
| 2012-Q3 | 106.1 | 105.9 | 105.2 | 105.0 |
| 2012-Q4 | 105.8 | 104.9 | 104.7 | 105.2 |
| 2013-Q1 | 105.0 | 104.4 | 104.6 | 104.9 |
| 2013-Q2 | 104.3 | 103.6 | 104.2 | 104.5 |
| 2013-Q3 | 104.1 | 102.7 | 103.5 | 103.4 |
| 2013-Q4 | 104.0 | 102.8 | 102.9 | 103.3 |
| 2014-Q1 | 103.6 | 102.2 | 103.0 | 102.2 |
| 2014-Q2 | 103.2 | 102.4 | 102.6 | 101.6 |
| 2014-Q3 | 102.2 | 101.7 | 101.5 | 101.6 |
| 2014-Q4 | 100.9 | 100.2 | 101.2 | 100.3 |
| 2015-Q1 | 100.6 | 100.0 | 100.3 | 100.0 |
| 2015-Q2 | 99.9 | 99.9 | 99.8 | 99.7 |
| 2015-Q3 | 99.9 | 100.0 | 99.9 | 100.0 |
| 2015-Q4 | 99.8 | 100.4 | 100.1 | 99.9 |
| 2016-Q1 | 99.6 | 100.9 | 100.4 | 100.5 |
| 2016-Q2 | 99.5 | 100.6 | 101.4 | 100.9 |
| 2016-Q3 | 99.6 | 101.6 | 102.2 | 101.3 |
| 2016-Q4 | 100.2 | 101.7 | 103.0 | 101.6 |
| 2017-Q1 | 101.6 | 103.0 | 104.5 | 102.5 |
| 2017-Q2 | 102.3 | 103.3 | 106.1 | 103.1 |
| 2017-Q3 | 103.1 | 104.0 | 108.0 | 103.8 |
| 2017-Q4 | 103.3 | 104.2 | 108.8 | 104.4 |
| 2018-Q1 | 104.1 | 105.5 | 109.8 | 105.1 |
| 2018-Q2 | 104.4 | 106.1 | 111.1 | 105.8 |
| 2018-Q3 | 105.8 | 106.8 | 112.6 | 106.2 |
| 2018-Q4 | 105.9 | 107.6 | 113.7 | 107.1 |
| 2019-Q1 | 107.1 | 108.1 | 115.1 | 106.6 |
| 2019-Q2 | 108.3 | 108.8 | 116.8 | 107.0 |
| 2019-Q3 | 109.4 | 109.8 | 118.2 | 107.8 |
| 2019-Q4 | 111.1 | 110.8 | 120.4 | 108.0 |
| 2020-Q1 | 113.6 | 112.6 | 123.0 | 109.9 |
| 2020-Q2 | 115.5 | 113.9 | 125.2 | 112.0 |
| 2020-Q3 | 116.5 | 114.3 | 125.9 | 112.5 |
| 2020-Q4 | 118.4 | 118.0 | 127.5 | 115.5 |
graphiqueSecond-hand dwellings price index in metropolitan France
- Scope: France métropolitaine.
- Sources: Insee, ADSN-BIEN-Grand Paris notaries, French notaries, Perval society.
tableauVariation in prices of second-hand dwellings in metropolitan France
| Change in | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 months (S.A.) | 12 months | |||||
| 2020 Q2(d) | 2020 Q3(d) | 2020 Q4(p) | 2020 Q2(d) | 2020 Q3(d) | 2020 Q4(p) | |
| Metropolitan France | 1.5 | 0.5 | 2.4 | 5.7 | 5.2 | 6.4 |
| Île-de-France | 1.8 | 0.5 | 1.7 | 6.6 | 6.1 | 6.4 |
| Provincial France | 1.3 | 0.5 | 2.7 | 5.3 | 4.9 | 6.5 |
| - Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes | 1.5 | 0.8 | 2.8 | 6.2 | 5.5 | 7.0 |
| - Hauts-de-France | 1.6 | 0.0 | 2.7 | 5.2 | 4.4 | 7.1 |
| - Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur | 0.2 | 0.8 | 1.7 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 3.8 |
| Flats | 1.7 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 7.0 | 6.6 | 6.3 |
| Île-de-France | 1.8 | 0.6 | 1.3 | 7.4 | 6.7 | 6.1 |
| - Paris | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 7.8 | 7.0 | 5.4 |
| - Immediate suburbs | 2.4 | 0.7 | 2.2 | 7.7 | 7.0 | 7.5 |
| - Outer suburbs | 1.9 | 0.1 | 1.7 | 5.5 | 5.2 | 5.2 |
| Provincial France | 1.6 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 6.6 | 6.5 | 6.6 |
| - Conurbation > 10 000 inhabitants | 1.8 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 6.8 | 6.7 | 6.6 |
| * Central town | 2.0 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 7.6 | 7.9 | 7.2 |
| * Suburb | 1.4 | 0.3 | 2.0 | 5.4 | 4.7 | 5.7 |
| - Conurbation < 10 000 inhabitants | 0.5 | 0.8 | 2.0 | 4.9 | 5.1 | 5.8 |
| - Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes | 2.2 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 7.4 | 7.2 | 7.0 |
| * Lyon | 4.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 11.1 | 11.5 | 9.0 |
| - Hauts-de-France | 1.6 | -0.8 | 3.1 | 7.8 | 5.9 | 7.2 |
| - Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur | 0.1 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 3.6 |
| * Marseille | * | * | * | * | * | * |
| Houses | 1.3 | 0.4 | 3.1 | 4.7 | 4.2 | 6.5 |
| Île-de-France | 1.9 | 0.5 | 2.7 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 7.0 |
| - Immediate suburbs | 1.8 | 1.0 | 3.8 | 4.9 | 5.5 | 9.0 |
| - Outer suburbs | 1.9 | 0.3 | 2.2 | 4.9 | 4.5 | 6.2 |
| Provincial France | 1.2 | 0.4 | 3.2 | 4.7 | 4.1 | 6.4 |
| - Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes | 0.9 | 0.4 | 3.8 | 5.2 | 4.0 | 6.9 |
| - Hauts-de-France | 1.6 | 0.2 | 2.6 | 4.8 | 4.2 | 7.1 |
| * Conurbation of Lille | 1.0 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 5.5 | 7.6 | 10.5 |
| - Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur | 0.3 | 1.2 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 4.0 |
- * The 2020Q2, 2020Q3 and 2020Q4 indices for Marseille are not published because cover rates of notaries data are too low.
- For 2020Q2 indices for Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur, Hauts-de-France and the Lille conurbation, cover rates of notaries data are below the level required by the scientific board of notaries-Insee indices, which may reduce their accuracy.
- Additional data (for example by department in Île-de-France) are available on the web page of the indicator.
- (p): provisional; (d): definitive.
- Scope: Metropolitan France.
- Sources: Insee. ADSN – BIEN – Grand Paris notaries. French notaries. Perval society.
The annual number of transactions started rising again at the end of December 2020
In Q4 2020, the annual number of transactions started rising again, after a decrease from late 2019 to Q3 2020: in December, this number was 1,024,000 on a yearly basis, after 989,000 at the end of September. Compared to the stock of available dwellings which increases by around 1% a year, the proportion of transactions is close to the high level observed in the early 2000s, after a peak in late 2019.
tableauVolume of transactions of second-hand dwellings over the last 12 months
| Volume of transactions of second-hand dwellings over the last 12 months | |
|---|---|
| 2000-Q1 | 755 |
| 2000-Q2 | 768 |
| 2000-Q3 | 780 |
| 2000-Q4 | 793 |
| 2001-Q1 | 785 |
| 2001-Q2 | 789 |
| 2001-Q3 | 791 |
| 2001-Q4 | 784 |
| 2002-Q1 | 793 |
| 2002-Q2 | 799 |
| 2002-Q3 | 803 |
| 2002-Q4 | 811 |
| 2003-Q1 | 798 |
| 2003-Q2 | 794 |
| 2003-Q3 | 806 |
| 2003-Q4 | 814 |
| 2004-Q1 | 824 |
| 2004-Q2 | 836 |
| 2004-Q3 | 827 |
| 2004-Q4 | 823 |
| 2005-Q1 | 826 |
| 2005-Q2 | 816 |
| 2005-Q3 | 821 |
| 2005-Q4 | 829 |
| 2006-Q1 | 834 |
| 2006-Q2 | 836 |
| 2006-Q3 | 832 |
| 2006-Q4 | 821 |
| 2007-Q1 | 813 |
| 2007-Q2 | 822 |
| 2007-Q3 | 821 |
| 2007-Q4 | 810 |
| 2008-Q1 | 796 |
| 2008-Q2 | 758 |
| 2008-Q3 | 717 |
| 2008-Q4 | 674 |
| 2009-Q1 | 610 |
| 2009-Q2 | 578 |
| 2009-Q3 | 568 |
| 2009-Q4 | 595 |
| 2010-Q1 | 656 |
| 2010-Q2 | 699 |
| 2010-Q3 | 737 |
| 2010-Q4 | 776 |
| 2011-Q1 | 796 |
| 2011-Q2 | 807 |
| 2011-Q3 | 821 |
| 2011-Q4 | 801 |
| 2012-Q1 | 816 |
| 2012-Q2 | 781 |
| 2012-Q3 | 734 |
| 2012-Q4 | 708 |
| 2013-Q1 | 661 |
| 2013-Q2 | 676 |
| 2013-Q3 | 690 |
| 2013-Q4 | 720 |
| 2014-Q1 | 736 |
| 2014-Q2 | 736 |
| 2014-Q3 | 726 |
| 2014-Q4 | 694 |
| 2015-Q1 | 696 |
| 2015-Q2 | 714 |
| 2015-Q3 | 752 |
| 2015-Q4 | 797 |
| 2016-Q1 | 808 |
| 2016-Q2 | 819 |
| 2016-Q3 | 825 |
| 2016-Q4 | 845 |
| 2017-Q1 | 877 |
| 2017-Q2 | 918 |
| 2017-Q3 | 950 |
| 2017-Q4 | 964 |
| 2018-Q1 | 960 |
| 2018-Q2 | 954 |
| 2018-Q3 | 958 |
| 2018-Q4 | 966 |
| 2019-Q1 | 983 |
| 2019-Q2 | 1016 |
| 2019-Q3 | 1043 |
| 2019-Q4 | 1067 |
| 2020-Q1 | 1039 |
| 2020-Q2 | 1008 |
| 2020-Q3 | 989 |
| 2020-Q4 | 1024 |
graphiqueVolume of transactions of second-hand dwellings over the last 12 months
- Scope: France (excluding Mayotte).
- Sources: CGEDD, based on notarial databases and DGFiP (MEDOC).
Revisions
The second-hand housing price index is revised in order to include observations recorded after the previous publication.
In comparison with the results released on 26 November 2020, the q-o-q change in prices in Q3 2020 in France (excluding Mayotte) was slightly revised: the definitive estimate is +0.6%, while the estimate published on 26 November 2020 was +0.5%.
For further information
The calculation of indices is based on the transactions completed during the quarter. The methodology is based on models explaining the price of housing according to its characteristics. The current value of a reference housing stock is estimated thanks to these models. Methodological principles of calculation of indices may be found in « Les indices Notaires-Insee de prix des logements anciens », Insee Méthodes n° 132 released in June 2019 (in French only).
Next issue: 27 May 2021, 8:45 AM.
Pour en savoir plus
The calculation of indices is based on the transactions completed during the quarter. The methodology is based on models explaining the price of housing according to its characteristics. The current value of a reference housing stock is estimated thanks to these models. Methodological principles of calculation of indices may be found in « Les indices Notaires-Insee de prix des logements anciens », Insee Méthodes n° 132 released in June 2019 (in French only).
Next issue: 27 May 2021, 8:45 AM.