17 December 2020
2020- n° 322In December 2020, the business climate has bounced back sharply in services Monthly survey of services - December 2020
According to the business managers surveyed in December 2020, the business climate in services has bounced back sharply. At 90, the business climate composite indicator has lost 12 points this month, returning above its October level but stands still below its long-term average (100).
According to the business managers surveyed in December 2020, the business climate in services has bounced back sharply. At 90, the business climate composite indicator has lost 12 points this month, returning above its October level but stands still below its long-term average (100).
tableauBusiness climate composite indicator
| Business climate composite indicator | |
|---|---|
| 2005-01 | 106.8 |
| 2005-02 | 106.6 |
| 2005-03 | 108.5 |
| 2005-04 | 108.2 |
| 2005-05 | 106.3 |
| 2005-06 | 108.5 |
| 2005-07 | 107.9 |
| 2005-08 | 107.5 |
| 2005-09 | 107.2 |
| 2005-10 | 108.7 |
| 2005-11 | 106.6 |
| 2005-12 | 107.0 |
| 2006-01 | 108.8 |
| 2006-02 | 106.5 |
| 2006-03 | 107.8 |
| 2006-04 | 108.0 |
| 2006-05 | 110.5 |
| 2006-06 | 109.3 |
| 2006-07 | 110.4 |
| 2006-08 | 110.5 |
| 2006-09 | 110.7 |
| 2006-10 | 111.0 |
| 2006-11 | 113.0 |
| 2006-12 | 111.5 |
| 2007-01 | 111.0 |
| 2007-02 | 112.3 |
| 2007-03 | 113.3 |
| 2007-04 | 113.1 |
| 2007-05 | 113.0 |
| 2007-06 | 112.6 |
| 2007-07 | 113.1 |
| 2007-08 | 112.3 |
| 2007-09 | 111.6 |
| 2007-10 | 110.3 |
| 2007-11 | 110.4 |
| 2007-12 | 109.3 |
| 2008-01 | 110.6 |
| 2008-02 | 108.9 |
| 2008-03 | 109.0 |
| 2008-04 | 107.5 |
| 2008-05 | 105.1 |
| 2008-06 | 102.0 |
| 2008-07 | 97.9 |
| 2008-08 | 96.4 |
| 2008-09 | 94.5 |
| 2008-10 | 86.2 |
| 2008-11 | 82.3 |
| 2008-12 | 79.2 |
| 2009-01 | 76.7 |
| 2009-02 | 75.6 |
| 2009-03 | 70.6 |
| 2009-04 | 70.7 |
| 2009-05 | 74.6 |
| 2009-06 | 79.1 |
| 2009-07 | 82.6 |
| 2009-08 | 85.2 |
| 2009-09 | 88.3 |
| 2009-10 | 91.3 |
| 2009-11 | 92.7 |
| 2009-12 | 93.2 |
| 2010-01 | 94.6 |
| 2010-02 | 94.8 |
| 2010-03 | 95.0 |
| 2010-04 | 98.1 |
| 2010-05 | 99.7 |
| 2010-06 | 98.8 |
| 2010-07 | 99.6 |
| 2010-08 | 101.1 |
| 2010-09 | 102.1 |
| 2010-10 | 103.3 |
| 2010-11 | 105.1 |
| 2010-12 | 107.1 |
| 2011-01 | 107.3 |
| 2011-02 | 109.4 |
| 2011-03 | 110.6 |
| 2011-04 | 109.3 |
| 2011-05 | 108.0 |
| 2011-06 | 107.5 |
| 2011-07 | 105.6 |
| 2011-08 | 101.3 |
| 2011-09 | 99.2 |
| 2011-10 | 98.1 |
| 2011-11 | 96.0 |
| 2011-12 | 95.7 |
| 2012-01 | 93.8 |
| 2012-02 | 93.2 |
| 2012-03 | 94.5 |
| 2012-04 | 96.5 |
| 2012-05 | 93.0 |
| 2012-06 | 91.0 |
| 2012-07 | 90.6 |
| 2012-08 | 88.6 |
| 2012-09 | 88.3 |
| 2012-10 | 87.2 |
| 2012-11 | 86.6 |
| 2012-12 | 88.2 |
| 2013-01 | 89.1 |
| 2013-02 | 88.0 |
| 2013-03 | 85.2 |
| 2013-04 | 84.4 |
| 2013-05 | 85.7 |
| 2013-06 | 87.0 |
| 2013-07 | 87.5 |
| 2013-08 | 89.4 |
| 2013-09 | 92.9 |
| 2013-10 | 92.4 |
| 2013-11 | 93.1 |
| 2013-12 | 91.7 |
| 2014-01 | 93.0 |
| 2014-02 | 92.8 |
| 2014-03 | 93.7 |
| 2014-04 | 94.0 |
| 2014-05 | 93.0 |
| 2014-06 | 93.0 |
| 2014-07 | 93.2 |
| 2014-08 | 92.3 |
| 2014-09 | 91.8 |
| 2014-10 | 92.0 |
| 2014-11 | 92.0 |
| 2014-12 | 92.1 |
| 2015-01 | 91.8 |
| 2015-02 | 92.2 |
| 2015-03 | 93.0 |
| 2015-04 | 94.5 |
| 2015-05 | 96.0 |
| 2015-06 | 97.3 |
| 2015-07 | 98.0 |
| 2015-08 | 99.0 |
| 2015-09 | 98.1 |
| 2015-10 | 100.0 |
| 2015-11 | 99.7 |
| 2015-12 | 97.6 |
| 2016-01 | 100.5 |
| 2016-02 | 100.3 |
| 2016-03 | 100.0 |
| 2016-04 | 98.8 |
| 2016-05 | 101.1 |
| 2016-06 | 99.6 |
| 2016-07 | 100.8 |
| 2016-08 | 100.4 |
| 2016-09 | 101.2 |
| 2016-10 | 101.2 |
| 2016-11 | 101.2 |
| 2016-12 | 103.9 |
| 2017-01 | 102.0 |
| 2017-02 | 103.0 |
| 2017-03 | 103.6 |
| 2017-04 | 103.5 |
| 2017-05 | 103.1 |
| 2017-06 | 103.8 |
| 2017-07 | 104.1 |
| 2017-08 | 106.0 |
| 2017-09 | 106.8 |
| 2017-10 | 107.0 |
| 2017-11 | 107.6 |
| 2017-12 | 108.9 |
| 2018-01 | 107.8 |
| 2018-02 | 106.7 |
| 2018-03 | 106.9 |
| 2018-04 | 106.0 |
| 2018-05 | 104.6 |
| 2018-06 | 105.1 |
| 2018-07 | 104.6 |
| 2018-08 | 104.0 |
| 2018-09 | 104.7 |
| 2018-10 | 103.5 |
| 2018-11 | 104.0 |
| 2018-12 | 102.4 |
| 2019-01 | 103.8 |
| 2019-02 | 103.7 |
| 2019-03 | 104.9 |
| 2019-04 | 105.6 |
| 2019-05 | 106.0 |
| 2019-06 | 106.4 |
| 2019-07 | 105.3 |
| 2019-08 | 104.9 |
| 2019-09 | 105.9 |
| 2019-10 | 106.0 |
| 2019-11 | 106.4 |
| 2019-12 | 106.7 |
| 2020-01 | 106.3 |
| 2020-02 | 106.0 |
| 2020-03 | 93.2 |
| 2020-04 | 42.1 |
| 2020-05 | 52.3 |
| 2020-06 | 78.5 |
| 2020-07 | 88.6 |
| 2020-08 | 93.2 |
| 2020-09 | 94.6 |
| 2020-10 | 89.0 |
| 2020-11 | 78.2 |
| 2020-12 | 89.8 |
graphiqueBusiness climate composite indicator
- Source: INSEE
The expectations of company managers have bounced back sharply
In December 2020, business leaders are much less pessimistic than in November. Indeed, whether about their own business prospects and expected demand for the next three months or about the general outlook for the sector, the corresponding balances of opinion have bounced back sharply. However, they remain well below their respective average.
Conversely, the balance of opinion on activity over the past three months has declined sharply in December and has fallen below its long-term average.
For their part, the balances of opinion on selling prices, both past and expected, have bounced back but remain below their average level.
About employment, business leaders remain pessimistic: the balance of opinion on the workforce size for the last three months has declined and has returned to its October level, below its average. The balance of opinion on expected workforce size, which is virtually stable, remains well below its average level.
The balance of opinion on past investment is virtually stable, below its average level. The one on expected investment for the next three months has recovered sharply but it also remains below its average.
tableauEconomic outlook in the services sector
| Average* | Sep. 2020 | Oct. 2020 | Nov. 2020 | Dec. 2020 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Composite indicator | 100 | 95 | 89 | 78 | 90 |
| General outlook | -8 | -16 | -20 | -38 | -18 |
| Past activity | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -9 |
| Expected activity | 1 | -5 | -15 | -29 | -11 |
| Expected demand | -1 | -7 | -17 | -28 | -11 |
| Past selling prices | -4 | -6 | -4 | -6 | -5 |
| Expected selling prices | -3 | -5 | -10 | -13 | -8 |
| Past employment | 2 | -4 | -3 | 4 | -3 |
| except temporary work agencies | 0 | -11 | -13 | -5 | -14 |
| Expected employment | 2 | -2 | -7 | -15 | -16 |
| except temporary work agencies | -1 | -7 | -10 | -23 | -20 |
| Investments | |||||
| Past investments | 1 | -9 | -13 | -9 | -10 |
| Expected investments | 1 | -7 | -9 | -13 | -6 |
- * Average since 1989 for the composite indicator and since 1988 for the balances of opinion
- Source: INSEE, monthly business survey in services.
The business climate has bounced back in all sub-sectors, to varying degrees
In December 2020, the business climate is less deteriorated than in November in all service sub-sectors. Especially, the business leaders are less pessimistic about the general outlook for the sector.
This overall improvement is more or less marked depending on the sub-sectors, which are going through heterogeneous economic situations.
In the sub-sector of road freight transport and information and communication, the business climate has recovered sharply and has returned to a level close to its long-term average.
In administrative and support services activities and in professional, scientific and technical activities, the business climate indicator has bounced back sharply but remains well below its average level.
In real estate activities, the business climate is slightly less deteriorated than in November but remains well below its average level.
In accommodation and food services, a sub-sector among the most affected by the health measures, the business climate, although slightly better, nevertheless remains very deteriorated. The balances of opinion on own short-term activity and demand prospects have increased sharply albeit remaining below their October level. As a result of the heath measures taken in October and November (closures, curfews, lockdown), the balances on past activity and past employment have fallen sharply.
tableauBusiness climate composite indicator and balances of opinion by sub-sector in services
| Aggregated classification (NA 2008) at level A21 | Mean* | Sep. 2020 | Oct. 2020 | Nov. 2020 | Dec. 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Road transport (8%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 104 | 97 | 92 | 99 |
| Past activity | -6 | 8 | 11 | 5 | 2 |
| Expected activity | -7 | 3 | -15 | -31 | -11 |
| Expected demand | -9 | -3 | -17 | -26 | -15 |
| Past employment | -6 | -15 | -12 | 0 | 1 |
| Expected employment | -7 | -5 | -7 | -11 | -7 |
| General outlook | -19 | -16 | -25 | -41 | -20 |
| Accommodation and food service activities (11%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 90 | 80 | 62 | 66 |
| Past activity | -8 | 14 | -6 | -12 | -57 |
| Expected activity | -8 | -17 | -32 | -66 | -50 |
| Expected demand | -10 | -20 | -37 | -61 | -45 |
| Past employment | -5 | -13 | -16 | -12 | -52 |
| Expected employment | -6 | -10 | -23 | -41 | -49 |
| General outlook | -15 | -46 | -55 | -77 | -64 |
| Information and communication (26%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 90 | 89 | 84 | 98 |
| Past activity | 7 | -4 | -3 | 12 | 4 |
| Expected activity | 9 | -4 | -12 | -14 | 9 |
| Expected demand | 9 | -9 | -20 | -10 | 7 |
| Past employment | 6 | -19 | -14 | 1 | 9 |
| Expected employment | 10 | -10 | -7 | -12 | -2 |
| General outlook | 0 | -7 | -10 | -33 | -5 |
| Real estate activities (11%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 95 | 88 | 83 | 86 |
| Past activity | 6 | 7 | 1 | -2 | -13 |
| Expected activity | 6 | 1 | -8 | -13 | -13 |
| Expected demand | 1 | -3 | -10 | -14 | -4 |
| Past employment | 2 | 7 | -4 | 10 | 0 |
| Expected employment | 2 | 5 | 3 | -5 | -3 |
| General outlook | -4 | -11 | -17 | -28 | -12 |
| Professional, scientific and technical activities (24%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 91 | 91 | 74 | 91 |
| Past activity | -1 | -9 | 2 | 2 | -7 |
| Expected activity | -3 | -13 | -15 | -38 | -16 |
| Expected demand | -6 | -15 | -16 | -41 | -16 |
| Past employment | 1 | -5 | -7 | -9 | -10 |
| Expected employment | 0 | -11 | -7 | -18 | -8 |
| General outlook | -9 | -18 | -19 | -40 | -16 |
| Administrative and support service activities (18%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 100 | 93 | 82 | 90 |
| Past activity | 5 | 7 | 19 | 18 | -1 |
| Expected activity | 5 | 6 | -5 | -21 | -13 |
| Expected demand | 3 | 4 | -8 | -28 | -9 |
| Past employment | 8 | 8 | 14 | 24 | 23 |
| Expected employment | 7 | 11 | 3 | 1 | -16 |
| General outlook | -4 | -12 | -17 | -36 | -16 |
- The figures in parentheses indicate the weights used to aggregate the sub-sector balances of opinion.
- *Composite indicator: average since 1989 (2006 for road transport); balances of opinion: average since 1988 (2006 for road transport)
- Source: INSEE, monthly business survey in services.
Revision
The business climate in November 2020 has been revised upwards by one point due to the inclusion of late responses from businesses.
For further information
A balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentage of “increase” responses and the percentage of “decrease” responses.
Since the definitive data of April 2020, the way of correcting mode of non-response has been modified. The usual method was to fill in missing answers by carrying on past answers from non-responding companies. The results are now computed on the sole basis of responding companies.
Company responses were collected between 27 November and 14 December 2020.
Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of the web page of this publication.
Next issue: 21 January 2021 at 8:45 am
Documentation
Abbreviated methodology (pdf,185 Ko)
Pour en savoir plus
A balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentage of “increase” responses and the percentage of “decrease” responses.
Since the definitive data of April 2020, the way of correcting mode of non-response has been modified. The usual method was to fill in missing answers by carrying on past answers from non-responding companies. The results are now computed on the sole basis of responding companies.
Company responses were collected between 27 November and 14 December 2020.
Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of the web page of this publication.
Next issue: 21 January 2021 at 8:45 am
Time series : Economic outlook surveys – Services
