26 November 2020
2020- n° 300In Q3 2020, the rise in prices of second-hand dwellings weakened Notaries-INSEE second-hand dwellings price index - third quarter 2020
In Q3 2020, the rise in prices of second-hand dwellings in France (excluding Mayotte) weakened: +0.5% compared to Q2 2020 (provisional seasonally adjusted results), after +1.4% in Q2 and +1.9% in Q1 2019.
Over a year, the rise in prices continued: +5.2%, after +5.6% and +4.9%. As observed since the end of 2016, this increase was more important for flats (+6.5% over the year) than for houses (+4.2%).
Given the context of the health crisis due to the covid-19, the statistics published in this “Informations Rapides” may be less accurate than usual as they are affected by additional delays in processing or administrative declarations.
In Q3 2020, the rise in prices of second-hand dwellings in France (excluding Mayotte) weakened: +0.5% compared to Q2 2020 (provisional seasonally adjusted results), after +1.4% in Q2 and +1.9% in Q1 2019.
Over a year, the rise in prices continued: +5.2%, after +5.6% and +4.9%. As observed since the end of 2016, this increase was more important for flats (+6.5% over the year) than for houses (+4.2%).
tableauVariation in prices of second-hand dwellings in France over a year
| France - flats | France | France - houses | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2011-Q1 | 9.5 | 7.1 | 5.3 |
| 2011-Q2 | 10.0 | 7.1 | 4.9 |
| 2011-Q3 | 8.8 | 6.2 | 4.2 |
| 2011-Q4 | 6.2 | 3.7 | 1.8 |
| 2012-Q1 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 |
| 2012-Q2 | 1.0 | -0.3 | -1.2 |
| 2012-Q3 | -0.8 | -1.7 | -2.3 |
| 2012-Q4 | -1.4 | -2.1 | -2.6 |
| 2013-Q1 | -1.5 | -2.0 | -2.4 |
| 2013-Q2 | -1.9 | -2.2 | -2.5 |
| 2013-Q3 | -1.7 | -2.3 | -2.8 |
| 2013-Q4 | -1.8 | -1.9 | -2.0 |
| 2014-Q1 | -1.4 | -1.9 | -2.2 |
| 2014-Q2 | -1.3 | -1.4 | -1.4 |
| 2014-Q3 | -2.0 | -1.4 | -1.0 |
| 2014-Q4 | -2.4 | -2.5 | -2.6 |
| 2015-Q1 | -2.8 | -2.4 | -2.1 |
| 2015-Q2 | -3.0 | -2.6 | -2.4 |
| 2015-Q3 | -2.0 | -1.8 | -1.6 |
| 2015-Q4 | -1.1 | -0.4 | 0.2 |
| 2016-Q1 | -0.4 | 0.3 | 0.9 |
| 2016-Q2 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.7 |
| 2016-Q3 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 1.5 |
| 2016-Q4 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| 2017-Q1 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 2.1 |
| 2017-Q2 | 3.7 | 3.1 | 2.6 |
| 2017-Q3 | 4.5 | 3.2 | 2.4 |
| 2017-Q4 | 4.3 | 3.3 | 2.5 |
| 2018-Q1 | 3.8 | 2.9 | 2.3 |
| 2018-Q2 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 2.5 |
| 2018-Q3 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 2.6 |
| 2018-Q4 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 3.1 |
| 2019-Q1 | 3.8 | 3.0 | 2.5 |
| 2019-Q2 | 4.3 | 3.1 | 2.3 |
| 2019-Q3 | 4.0 | 3.2 | 2.5 |
| 2019-Q4 | 5.3 | 3.7 | 2.6 |
| 2020-Q1 | 6.4 | 4.9 | 3.9 |
| 2020-Q2 | 7.0 | 5.6 | 4.7 |
| 2020-Q3 | 6.5 | 5.2 | 4.2 |
graphiqueVariation in prices of second-hand dwellings in France over a year
- Scope: France (excluding Mayotte).
- Sources: Insee, ADSN-BIEN-Grand Paris notaries, French notaries, Perval society.
tableauVariation in prices of second-hand dwellings in France
| change in | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 months (S.A.) | 12 months | |||||
| 2020 Q1(d) | 2020 Q2(d) | 2020 Q3(p) | 2020 Q1(d) | 2020 Q2(d) | 2020 Q3(p) | |
| France | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 4.9 | 5.6 | 5.2 |
| Flats | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 6.4 | 7.0 | 6.5 |
| Houses | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 3.9 | 4.7 | 4.2 |
- (p): provisional; (d): definitive.
- Scope: France (excluding Mayotte).
- Sources: Insee, ADSN – BIEN – Grand Paris notaries, French notaries, Perval society.
Prices of second-hand dwellings in Île-de-France were rising slower than in previous quarters
In Q3 2020, prices of second-hand dwellings in Île-de-France were again increasing; but at a slower pace than in previous quarters: +0.5% compared to Q2 2020, after +1.8% and +2.0%.
Over a year, prices are still rising sharply: +6.0% between Q3 2019 and Q3 2020, after +6.6% in Q2 2020 and +5.4% in Q1 2020. This increase remained stronger for flats’ prices, which increased by +6.6% over the year, while houses’ prices increased by +4.8%. In Paris, flats’ prices rose by +6.9% over a year in the third quarter of 2020, after +7.8% in Q2 2020 and +8.0% in Q1 2020. Excluding Paris, the annual increase in Île-de-France continued: +5.5%, after +6.0% in Q2 2020 and +4.2% in Q1 2020.
The rise of prices of second-hand dwellings weakened in provincial France too
In Q3 2020, prices of second-hand dwelling in provincial France increased at a slower pace: +0.5% after +1.3%, and +1.8%.
Over a year, the rise in prices continued: +4.8% between Q3 2019 and Q3 2020, after +5.3% and +4.7%. Uniformly to what was observed in Île-de-France, the rise in prices of flats was stronger (+6.5% y-o-y), even though prices of houses were also rising steadily (+4.1%).
tableauSecond-hand dwellings price index in metropolitan France
| Province - flats | Province - houses | Île-de-France - flats | Île-de-France - houses | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000-Q1 | 45.7 | 53.1 | 38.4 | 52.2 |
| 2000-Q2 | 46.4 | 54.0 | 39.4 | 52.9 |
| 2000-Q3 | 47.3 | 55.2 | 40.3 | 54.1 |
| 2000-Q4 | 47.8 | 56.1 | 40.9 | 54.8 |
| 2001-Q1 | 48.9 | 57.3 | 41.9 | 55.8 |
| 2001-Q2 | 50.0 | 58.6 | 42.5 | 57.5 |
| 2001-Q3 | 50.5 | 59.6 | 43.5 | 58.0 |
| 2001-Q4 | 51.8 | 60.7 | 44.2 | 58.5 |
| 2002-Q1 | 52.8 | 62.0 | 44.8 | 58.8 |
| 2002-Q2 | 54.3 | 63.4 | 46.1 | 60.1 |
| 2002-Q3 | 56.2 | 65.2 | 47.4 | 61.4 |
| 2002-Q4 | 58.0 | 67.0 | 48.8 | 62.2 |
| 2003-Q1 | 59.7 | 68.5 | 50.3 | 63.5 |
| 2003-Q2 | 62.0 | 70.4 | 51.9 | 65.0 |
| 2003-Q3 | 64.4 | 72.3 | 53.3 | 66.8 |
| 2003-Q4 | 66.6 | 74.6 | 55.1 | 69.7 |
| 2004-Q1 | 70.3 | 77.1 | 57.2 | 72.0 |
| 2004-Q2 | 73.0 | 79.5 | 59.4 | 74.1 |
| 2004-Q3 | 76.2 | 82.2 | 61.4 | 77.0 |
| 2004-Q4 | 79.5 | 85.3 | 63.8 | 79.4 |
| 2005-Q1 | 82.5 | 88.4 | 66.2 | 82.1 |
| 2005-Q2 | 86.1 | 91.2 | 68.6 | 85.4 |
| 2005-Q3 | 89.0 | 94.3 | 71.5 | 88.4 |
| 2005-Q4 | 92.1 | 96.8 | 73.5 | 91.8 |
| 2006-Q1 | 95.3 | 99.5 | 75.8 | 95.0 |
| 2006-Q2 | 97.6 | 101.9 | 78.0 | 97.5 |
| 2006-Q3 | 100.0 | 103.8 | 79.5 | 99.5 |
| 2006-Q4 | 101.9 | 105.9 | 81.0 | 100.7 |
| 2007-Q1 | 102.7 | 107.2 | 82.6 | 103.5 |
| 2007-Q2 | 103.6 | 108.6 | 84.0 | 104.5 |
| 2007-Q3 | 104.8 | 109.6 | 85.4 | 105.0 |
| 2007-Q4 | 106.3 | 110.9 | 87.6 | 106.3 |
| 2008-Q1 | 106.7 | 111.3 | 88.4 | 105.9 |
| 2008-Q2 | 106.4 | 110.3 | 89.2 | 105.9 |
| 2008-Q3 | 104.8 | 108.9 | 89.0 | 104.4 |
| 2008-Q4 | 102.3 | 105.2 | 87.6 | 101.0 |
| 2009-Q1 | 99.5 | 101.9 | 84.7 | 95.8 |
| 2009-Q2 | 98.0 | 100.0 | 82.3 | 92.8 |
| 2009-Q3 | 98.3 | 99.9 | 82.7 | 93.2 |
| 2009-Q4 | 99.3 | 100.9 | 84.1 | 93.8 |
| 2010-Q1 | 101.0 | 102.4 | 86.8 | 97.2 |
| 2010-Q2 | 102.4 | 103.6 | 89.4 | 98.8 |
| 2010-Q3 | 103.9 | 104.7 | 92.0 | 100.0 |
| 2010-Q4 | 105.4 | 106.4 | 95.6 | 102.0 |
| 2011-Q1 | 106.1 | 107.2 | 99.2 | 103.8 |
| 2011-Q2 | 107.2 | 108.1 | 103.4 | 105.7 |
| 2011-Q3 | 108.0 | 108.4 | 105.0 | 107.0 |
| 2011-Q4 | 108.0 | 107.7 | 105.5 | 107.1 |
| 2012-Q1 | 107.8 | 107.1 | 105.1 | 106.9 |
| 2012-Q2 | 107.2 | 106.5 | 105.2 | 106.2 |
| 2012-Q3 | 106.1 | 105.9 | 105.2 | 105.0 |
| 2012-Q4 | 105.8 | 104.9 | 104.7 | 105.2 |
| 2013-Q1 | 105.0 | 104.4 | 104.6 | 104.9 |
| 2013-Q2 | 104.3 | 103.6 | 104.2 | 104.5 |
| 2013-Q3 | 104.1 | 102.7 | 103.5 | 103.4 |
| 2013-Q4 | 104.0 | 102.8 | 102.9 | 103.3 |
| 2014-Q1 | 103.6 | 102.2 | 103.0 | 102.2 |
| 2014-Q2 | 103.2 | 102.4 | 102.6 | 101.6 |
| 2014-Q3 | 102.2 | 101.7 | 101.5 | 101.6 |
| 2014-Q4 | 100.9 | 100.2 | 101.2 | 100.3 |
| 2015-Q1 | 100.6 | 100.0 | 100.3 | 100.0 |
| 2015-Q2 | 99.9 | 99.9 | 99.8 | 99.7 |
| 2015-Q3 | 99.9 | 100.0 | 99.9 | 100.0 |
| 2015-Q4 | 99.8 | 100.4 | 100.1 | 99.9 |
| 2016-Q1 | 99.6 | 100.9 | 100.4 | 100.5 |
| 2016-Q2 | 99.5 | 100.6 | 101.4 | 100.9 |
| 2016-Q3 | 99.6 | 101.6 | 102.2 | 101.3 |
| 2016-Q4 | 100.2 | 101.7 | 103.0 | 101.6 |
| 2017-Q1 | 101.6 | 103.0 | 104.5 | 102.5 |
| 2017-Q2 | 102.3 | 103.3 | 106.1 | 103.1 |
| 2017-Q3 | 103.1 | 104.0 | 108.0 | 103.8 |
| 2017-Q4 | 103.3 | 104.2 | 108.8 | 104.4 |
| 2018-Q1 | 104.1 | 105.5 | 109.8 | 105.1 |
| 2018-Q2 | 104.4 | 106.1 | 111.1 | 105.8 |
| 2018-Q3 | 105.8 | 106.8 | 112.6 | 106.2 |
| 2018-Q4 | 105.9 | 107.6 | 113.7 | 107.1 |
| 2019-Q1 | 107.1 | 108.1 | 115.1 | 106.6 |
| 2019-Q2 | 108.3 | 108.8 | 116.8 | 107.0 |
| 2019-Q3 | 109.4 | 109.8 | 118.2 | 107.8 |
| 2019-Q4 | 111.1 | 110.8 | 120.4 | 108.0 |
| 2020-Q1 | 113.6 | 112.6 | 123.0 | 109.9 |
| 2020-Q2 | 115.5 | 113.9 | 125.2 | 112.0 |
| 2020-Q3 | 116.5 | 114.3 | 125.8 | 112.5 |
graphiqueSecond-hand dwellings price index in metropolitan France
- Scope: France métropolitaine.
- Sources: Insee, ADSN-BIEN-Grand Paris notaries, French notaries, Perval society.
tableauVariation in prices of second-hand dwellings in metropolitan France
| Change in | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 months (S.A.) | 12 months | |||||
| 2020 Q1(d) | 2020 Q2(d) | 2020 Q3(p) | 2020 Q1(d) | 2020 Q2(d) | 2020 Q3(p) | |
| Metropolitan France | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 4.9 | 5.7 | 5.2 |
| Île-de-France | 2.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 5.4 | 6.6 | 6.0 |
| Provincial France | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 4.7 | 5.3 | 4.8 |
| - Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 5.3 | 6.2 | 5.6 |
| - Hauts-de-France | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 5.2 | 4.4 |
| - Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 4.0 | 3.2 | 3.2 |
| Flats | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 6.4 | 7.0 | 6.5 |
| Île-de-France | 2.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 6.9 | 7.4 | 6.6 |
| - Paris | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 8.0 | 7.8 | 6.9 |
| - Immediate suburbs | 1.8 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 6.5 | 7.7 | 6.8 |
| - Outer suburbs | 1.2 | 1.9 | 0.1 | 4.3 | 5.5 | 5.1 |
| Provincial France | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 6.0 | 6.6 | 6.5 |
| - Conurbation > 10 000 inhabitants | 2.2 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 6.1 | 6.8 | 6.7 |
| * Central town | 2.5 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 6.9 | 7.6 | 7.8 |
| * Suburb | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 4.8 | 5.4 | 4.7 |
| - Conurbation < 10 000 inhabitants | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 5.0 |
| - Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 6.6 | 7.4 | 7.1 |
| * Lyon | 1.7 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 10.1 | 11.1 | 11.5 |
| - Hauts-de-France | 3.2 | 1.6 | -0.7 | 6.5 | 7.8 | 6.0 |
| - Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur | 2.2 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 4.1 | 3.6 | 4.0 |
| * Marseille | 3.8 | * | * | 7.7 | * | * |
| Houses | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 3.9 | 4.7 | 4.2 |
| Île-de-France | 1.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 2.4 | 4.9 | 4.8 |
| - Immediate suburbs | 2.0 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 2.5 | 4.9 | 5.5 |
| - Outer suburbs | 1.7 | 1.9 | 0.2 | 2.3 | 4.9 | 4.5 |
| Provincial France | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 4.2 | 4.7 | 4.1 |
| - Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 4.1 | 5.2 | 4.2 |
| - Hauts-de-France | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.1 | 3.6 | 4.8 | 4.1 |
| * Conurbation of Lille | 4.5 | 1.0 | 1.9 | 4.9 | 5.5 | 7.5 |
| - Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur | 0.1 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 4.0 | 2.7 | 2.5 |
- * The 2020Q2 and 2020Q3 indices for Marseille are not published because cover rates of notaries data are too low.
- For 2020Q2 indices for Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur, Hauts-de-France and the Lille conurbation, and for 2020Q3 indices for Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur, cover rates of notaries data are below the level required by the scientific board of notaries-Insee indices, which may reduce their accuracy.
- Additional data (for example by department in Île-de-France) are available on the web page of the indicator.
- (p): provisional; (d): definitive.
- Scope: Metropolitan France.
- Sources: Insee. ADSN – BIEN – Grand Paris notaries. French notaries. Perval society.
Less than a million of annual transactions at the end of September 2020
In Q3 2020, the decrease in the annual number of transactions that began in Q1 2020 continued: in September, this number was 990,000 on a yearly basis, after 1,008,000 at the end of June. Compared to the stock of available dwellings which increases by around 1% a year, the proportion of transactions came back to a level that is close to the high level observed in the early 2000s, after a peak in late 2019.
tableauVolume of transactions of second-hand dwellings over the last 12 months
| Volume of transactions of second-hand dwellings over the last 12 months | |
|---|---|
| 2000-Q1 | 755 |
| 2000-Q2 | 768 |
| 2000-Q3 | 780 |
| 2000-Q4 | 793 |
| 2001-Q1 | 785 |
| 2001-Q2 | 789 |
| 2001-Q3 | 791 |
| 2001-Q4 | 784 |
| 2002-Q1 | 793 |
| 2002-Q2 | 799 |
| 2002-Q3 | 802 |
| 2002-Q4 | 811 |
| 2003-Q1 | 797 |
| 2003-Q2 | 793 |
| 2003-Q3 | 805 |
| 2003-Q4 | 813 |
| 2004-Q1 | 823 |
| 2004-Q2 | 835 |
| 2004-Q3 | 827 |
| 2004-Q4 | 822 |
| 2005-Q1 | 825 |
| 2005-Q2 | 815 |
| 2005-Q3 | 820 |
| 2005-Q4 | 828 |
| 2006-Q1 | 833 |
| 2006-Q2 | 835 |
| 2006-Q3 | 831 |
| 2006-Q4 | 820 |
| 2007-Q1 | 812 |
| 2007-Q2 | 821 |
| 2007-Q3 | 821 |
| 2007-Q4 | 810 |
| 2008-Q1 | 796 |
| 2008-Q2 | 758 |
| 2008-Q3 | 717 |
| 2008-Q4 | 674 |
| 2009-Q1 | 610 |
| 2009-Q2 | 578 |
| 2009-Q3 | 568 |
| 2009-Q4 | 595 |
| 2010-Q1 | 657 |
| 2010-Q2 | 701 |
| 2010-Q3 | 740 |
| 2010-Q4 | 782 |
| 2011-Q1 | 803 |
| 2011-Q2 | 813 |
| 2011-Q3 | 827 |
| 2011-Q4 | 804 |
| 2012-Q1 | 818 |
| 2012-Q2 | 782 |
| 2012-Q3 | 734 |
| 2012-Q4 | 708 |
| 2013-Q1 | 661 |
| 2013-Q2 | 677 |
| 2013-Q3 | 691 |
| 2013-Q4 | 721 |
| 2014-Q1 | 738 |
| 2014-Q2 | 737 |
| 2014-Q3 | 727 |
| 2014-Q4 | 696 |
| 2015-Q1 | 699 |
| 2015-Q2 | 717 |
| 2015-Q3 | 756 |
| 2015-Q4 | 800 |
| 2016-Q1 | 812 |
| 2016-Q2 | 822 |
| 2016-Q3 | 829 |
| 2016-Q4 | 849 |
| 2017-Q1 | 881 |
| 2017-Q2 | 923 |
| 2017-Q3 | 954 |
| 2017-Q4 | 970 |
| 2018-Q1 | 967 |
| 2018-Q2 | 964 |
| 2018-Q3 | 967 |
| 2018-Q4 | 973 |
| 2019-Q1 | 988 |
| 2019-Q2 | 1015 |
| 2019-Q3 | 1042 |
| 2019-Q4 | 1067 |
| 2020-Q1 | 1039 |
| 2020-Q2 | 1008 |
| 2020-Q3 | 990 |
graphiqueVolume of transactions of second-hand dwellings over the last 12 months
- Scope: France (excluding Mayotte).
- Sources: CGEDD, based on notarial databases and DGFiP (MEDOC).
Revisions
The second-hand housing price index is revised in order to include observations recorded after the previous publication.
In comparison with the results released on 10 September 2020, the q-o-q change in prices in Q2 2020 in France (excluding Mayotte) was slightly revised: it stood at +1.4%, while the estimate published on 10 September 2020 was 1.5%.
For further information
The calculation of indices is based on the transactions completed during the quarter. The methodology is based on models explaining the price of housing according to its characteristics. The current value of a reference housing stock is estimated thanks to these models. Methodological principles of calculation of indices may be found in « Les indices Notaires-Insee de prix des logements anciens », Insee Méthodes n° 132 released in June 2019 (in French only).
Next issue: 25 February 2020, 8:45 AM.
Pour en savoir plus
The calculation of indices is based on the transactions completed during the quarter. The methodology is based on models explaining the price of housing according to its characteristics. The current value of a reference housing stock is estimated thanks to these models. Methodological principles of calculation of indices may be found in « Les indices Notaires-Insee de prix des logements anciens », Insee Méthodes n° 132 released in June 2019 (in French only).
Next issue: 25 February 2020, 8:45 AM.
