24 September 2020
2020- n° 239In September 2020, the business climate in services has continued to recover but the
activity prospects remain uncertain Monthly survey of services - September 2020
According to the business managers surveyed in September 2020, the business climate in services has improved for the fifth month in a row. At 95, the business climate composite indicator has gained 2 points this month but remains below its long-term average (100).
According to the business managers surveyed in September 2020, the business climate in services has improved for the fifth month in a row. At 95, the business climate composite indicator has gained 2 points this month but remains below its long-term average (100).
tableauBusiness climate composite indicator
| Business climate composite indicator | |
|---|---|
| 1998-01 | 104.4 |
| 1998-02 | 105.6 |
| 1998-03 | 106.8 |
| 1998-04 | 108.0 |
| 1998-05 | 107.7 |
| 1998-06 | 107.3 |
| 1998-07 | 106.9 |
| 1998-08 | 106.0 |
| 1998-09 | 105.2 |
| 1998-10 | 104.3 |
| 1998-11 | 102.5 |
| 1998-12 | 100.6 |
| 1999-01 | 98.7 |
| 1999-02 | 99.6 |
| 1999-03 | 100.5 |
| 1999-04 | 101.4 |
| 1999-05 | 102.9 |
| 1999-06 | 104.4 |
| 1999-07 | 106.0 |
| 1999-08 | 108.7 |
| 1999-09 | 111.5 |
| 1999-10 | 114.2 |
| 1999-11 | 112.7 |
| 1999-12 | 111.2 |
| 2000-01 | 109.6 |
| 2000-02 | 109.0 |
| 2000-03 | 108.5 |
| 2000-04 | 107.9 |
| 2000-05 | 110.7 |
| 2000-06 | 113.4 |
| 2000-07 | 112.1 |
| 2000-08 | 114.0 |
| 2000-09 | 115.3 |
| 2000-10 | 114.7 |
| 2000-11 | 113.7 |
| 2000-12 | 114.3 |
| 2001-01 | 113.5 |
| 2001-02 | 112.2 |
| 2001-03 | 112.5 |
| 2001-04 | 108.4 |
| 2001-05 | 105.9 |
| 2001-06 | 105.8 |
| 2001-07 | 103.7 |
| 2001-08 | 103.0 |
| 2001-09 | 101.7 |
| 2001-10 | 97.1 |
| 2001-11 | 96.5 |
| 2001-12 | 96.9 |
| 2002-01 | 97.8 |
| 2002-02 | 99.0 |
| 2002-03 | 102.5 |
| 2002-04 | 104.6 |
| 2002-05 | 105.4 |
| 2002-06 | 103.0 |
| 2002-07 | 101.4 |
| 2002-08 | 100.0 |
| 2002-09 | 98.3 |
| 2002-10 | 98.8 |
| 2002-11 | 100.2 |
| 2002-12 | 101.0 |
| 2003-01 | 97.9 |
| 2003-02 | 96.5 |
| 2003-03 | 92.0 |
| 2003-04 | 89.3 |
| 2003-05 | 93.3 |
| 2003-06 | 94.7 |
| 2003-07 | 97.7 |
| 2003-08 | 99.0 |
| 2003-09 | 99.9 |
| 2003-10 | 100.7 |
| 2003-11 | 102.1 |
| 2003-12 | 104.3 |
| 2004-01 | 106.4 |
| 2004-02 | 106.3 |
| 2004-03 | 106.1 |
| 2004-04 | 106.0 |
| 2004-05 | 106.6 |
| 2004-06 | 105.4 |
| 2004-07 | 106.6 |
| 2004-08 | 106.1 |
| 2004-09 | 105.4 |
| 2004-10 | 106.6 |
| 2004-11 | 106.1 |
| 2004-12 | 108.9 |
| 2005-01 | 106.7 |
| 2005-02 | 106.5 |
| 2005-03 | 108.4 |
| 2005-04 | 108.1 |
| 2005-05 | 106.2 |
| 2005-06 | 108.4 |
| 2005-07 | 107.8 |
| 2005-08 | 107.4 |
| 2005-09 | 107.0 |
| 2005-10 | 108.6 |
| 2005-11 | 106.5 |
| 2005-12 | 106.9 |
| 2006-01 | 108.7 |
| 2006-02 | 106.4 |
| 2006-03 | 107.7 |
| 2006-04 | 107.9 |
| 2006-05 | 110.5 |
| 2006-06 | 109.2 |
| 2006-07 | 110.3 |
| 2006-08 | 110.4 |
| 2006-09 | 110.6 |
| 2006-10 | 110.9 |
| 2006-11 | 113.0 |
| 2006-12 | 111.4 |
| 2007-01 | 110.9 |
| 2007-02 | 112.2 |
| 2007-03 | 113.2 |
| 2007-04 | 113.0 |
| 2007-05 | 112.9 |
| 2007-06 | 112.6 |
| 2007-07 | 113.1 |
| 2007-08 | 112.2 |
| 2007-09 | 111.5 |
| 2007-10 | 110.2 |
| 2007-11 | 110.3 |
| 2007-12 | 109.2 |
| 2008-01 | 110.5 |
| 2008-02 | 108.8 |
| 2008-03 | 108.8 |
| 2008-04 | 107.3 |
| 2008-05 | 104.9 |
| 2008-06 | 101.8 |
| 2008-07 | 97.7 |
| 2008-08 | 96.2 |
| 2008-09 | 94.2 |
| 2008-10 | 85.9 |
| 2008-11 | 81.9 |
| 2008-12 | 78.8 |
| 2009-01 | 76.3 |
| 2009-02 | 75.2 |
| 2009-03 | 70.1 |
| 2009-04 | 70.3 |
| 2009-05 | 74.2 |
| 2009-06 | 78.7 |
| 2009-07 | 82.3 |
| 2009-08 | 84.9 |
| 2009-09 | 88.0 |
| 2009-10 | 91.1 |
| 2009-11 | 92.4 |
| 2009-12 | 93.0 |
| 2010-01 | 94.4 |
| 2010-02 | 94.6 |
| 2010-03 | 94.8 |
| 2010-04 | 97.9 |
| 2010-05 | 99.5 |
| 2010-06 | 98.6 |
| 2010-07 | 99.4 |
| 2010-08 | 100.9 |
| 2010-09 | 101.9 |
| 2010-10 | 103.2 |
| 2010-11 | 105.0 |
| 2010-12 | 106.9 |
| 2011-01 | 107.2 |
| 2011-02 | 109.3 |
| 2011-03 | 110.5 |
| 2011-04 | 109.2 |
| 2011-05 | 107.9 |
| 2011-06 | 107.4 |
| 2011-07 | 105.4 |
| 2011-08 | 101.1 |
| 2011-09 | 99.0 |
| 2011-10 | 97.9 |
| 2011-11 | 95.8 |
| 2011-12 | 95.4 |
| 2012-01 | 93.6 |
| 2012-02 | 93.0 |
| 2012-03 | 94.3 |
| 2012-04 | 96.2 |
| 2012-05 | 92.7 |
| 2012-06 | 90.8 |
| 2012-07 | 90.3 |
| 2012-08 | 88.3 |
| 2012-09 | 88.0 |
| 2012-10 | 86.9 |
| 2012-11 | 86.3 |
| 2012-12 | 87.9 |
| 2013-01 | 88.9 |
| 2013-02 | 87.7 |
| 2013-03 | 84.9 |
| 2013-04 | 84.1 |
| 2013-05 | 85.5 |
| 2013-06 | 86.7 |
| 2013-07 | 87.2 |
| 2013-08 | 89.1 |
| 2013-09 | 92.7 |
| 2013-10 | 92.2 |
| 2013-11 | 92.8 |
| 2013-12 | 91.4 |
| 2014-01 | 92.8 |
| 2014-02 | 92.6 |
| 2014-03 | 93.4 |
| 2014-04 | 93.8 |
| 2014-05 | 92.7 |
| 2014-06 | 92.7 |
| 2014-07 | 93.0 |
| 2014-08 | 92.1 |
| 2014-09 | 91.5 |
| 2014-10 | 91.8 |
| 2014-11 | 91.7 |
| 2014-12 | 91.8 |
| 2015-01 | 91.6 |
| 2015-02 | 91.9 |
| 2015-03 | 92.7 |
| 2015-04 | 94.3 |
| 2015-05 | 95.8 |
| 2015-06 | 97.1 |
| 2015-07 | 97.8 |
| 2015-08 | 98.8 |
| 2015-09 | 97.9 |
| 2015-10 | 99.8 |
| 2015-11 | 99.6 |
| 2015-12 | 97.4 |
| 2016-01 | 100.3 |
| 2016-02 | 100.1 |
| 2016-03 | 99.8 |
| 2016-04 | 98.6 |
| 2016-05 | 101.0 |
| 2016-06 | 99.4 |
| 2016-07 | 100.6 |
| 2016-08 | 100.3 |
| 2016-09 | 101.0 |
| 2016-10 | 101.0 |
| 2016-11 | 101.1 |
| 2016-12 | 103.8 |
| 2017-01 | 101.9 |
| 2017-02 | 102.9 |
| 2017-03 | 103.4 |
| 2017-04 | 103.3 |
| 2017-05 | 102.9 |
| 2017-06 | 103.7 |
| 2017-07 | 104.0 |
| 2017-08 | 105.9 |
| 2017-09 | 106.7 |
| 2017-10 | 106.8 |
| 2017-11 | 107.5 |
| 2017-12 | 108.8 |
| 2018-01 | 107.7 |
| 2018-02 | 106.5 |
| 2018-03 | 106.8 |
| 2018-04 | 105.9 |
| 2018-05 | 104.4 |
| 2018-06 | 104.9 |
| 2018-07 | 104.5 |
| 2018-08 | 103.8 |
| 2018-09 | 104.6 |
| 2018-10 | 103.4 |
| 2018-11 | 103.9 |
| 2018-12 | 102.3 |
| 2019-01 | 103.6 |
| 2019-02 | 103.5 |
| 2019-03 | 104.7 |
| 2019-04 | 105.5 |
| 2019-05 | 105.9 |
| 2019-06 | 106.3 |
| 2019-07 | 105.2 |
| 2019-08 | 104.8 |
| 2019-09 | 105.8 |
| 2019-10 | 105.8 |
| 2019-11 | 106.3 |
| 2019-12 | 106.6 |
| 2020-01 | 106.2 |
| 2020-02 | 105.9 |
| 2020-03 | 92.9 |
| 2020-04 | 41.4 |
| 2020-05 | 51.7 |
| 2020-06 | 78.3 |
| 2020-07 | 88.4 |
| 2020-08 | 93.1 |
| 2020-09 | 94.8 |
graphiqueBusiness climate composite indicator
- Source: INSEE
The balances of opinion on past activity has strongly increased again
In September 2020, the balance of opinion on activity for the three last months has strongly improved again and has reached its long-term average. However, the balance on the general outlook of the sector’s activity has weakened slightly this month. This balance remains below its average level. Business managers remain rather pessimistic about their own prospects for the next three months: the balances on expected activity and expected demand have decreased slightly again and have moved away from their average.
The balances on past and expected selling prices have increased in September but remain slightly below their average level.
Concerning employment, business leaders attest to the improvement in the recent situation, after the shock of the health crisis: the balance on employment for the last three months has strongly increased again and has moved closer to its average. The one on expected employment is virtually stable slightly below its average.
The balances on past and expected investments have continued to recover, especially this month the one on past investments. Both balances remain below their average.
tableauEconomic outlook in the services sector
| Average* | June 2020 | July 2020 | Aug. 2020 | Sep. 2020 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Composite indicator | 100 | 78 | 88 | 93 | 95 |
| General outlook | -7 | -28 | -16 | -13 | -15 |
| Past activity | 1 | -61 | -55 | -25 | 1 |
| Expected activity | 1 | -13 | 1 | -2 | -5 |
| Expected demand | -1 | -13 | -4 | -5 | -7 |
| Past selling prices | -4 | -18 | -14 | -10 | -6 |
| Expected selling prices | -3 | -12 | -6 | -6 | -5 |
| Past employment | 2 | -56 | -48 | -20 | -4 |
| except temporary work agencies | 0 | -50 | -40 | -19 | -10 |
| Expected employment | 2 | -12 | -5 | -1 | 0 |
| except temporary work agencies | -1 | -20 | -11 | -8 | -5 |
| Investments | |||||
| Past investments | 2 | -36 | -31 | -18 | -8 |
| Expected investments | 1 | -15 | -12 | -8 | -7 |
- * Average since 1989 for the composite indicator and since 1988 for the balances of opinion
- Source: INSEE, monthly business survey in services.
The business climate has improved in most sub-sectors
The business climate has improved in most service sub-sectors. The balances of opinion on past activity and on past employment have sharply improved in all sub-sectors.
In accommodation and food services, the general activity outlook has deteriorated again. However, the business climate has gained one point and has returned to its July level, far below its average level.
In the sub-sectors of information-communication, real estate activities and in professional, scientific and technical activities, the climate has improved again. In administrative and support service activities, it hold steady at its long-term average (100) even if the general outlook has been deemed less favourable.
The business climate indicator has edged down only in road freight transport, while remaining above its long-term average.
tableauBusiness climate composite indicator and balances of opinion by sub-sector in services
| Aggregated classification (NA 2008) at level A21 | Mean* | June 2020 | July 2020 | Aug. 2020 | Sep. 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Road transport (8%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 97 | 99 | 105 | 104 |
| Past activity | -6 | -76 | -61 | -16 | 8 |
| Expected activity | -7 | 9 | 4 | 8 | 3 |
| Expected demand | -9 | -3 | 3 | 0 | -3 |
| Past employment | -6 | -62 | -52 | -21 | -12 |
| Expected employment | -7 | -7 | 0 | 10 | -4 |
| General outlook | -19 | -18 | -10 | -8 | -14 |
| Accommodation and food service activities (11%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 70 | 88 | 87 | 88 |
| Past activity | -8 | -100 | -85 | -30 | 16 |
| Expected activity | -7 | -27 | 0 | -21 | -20 |
| Expected demand | -10 | -20 | -7 | -19 | -23 |
| Past employment | -5 | -75 | -63 | -26 | -13 |
| Expected employment | -6 | -31 | -18 | -18 | -10 |
| General outlook | -14 | -62 | -32 | -33 | -46 |
| Information and communication (26%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 82 | 86 | 89 | 92 |
| Past activity | 7 | -36 | -46 | -27 | -5 |
| Expected activity | 9 | -4 | 6 | 2 | -4 |
| Expected demand | 9 | -5 | 2 | 0 | -9 |
| Past employment | 6 | -29 | -27 | -24 | -12 |
| Expected employment | 10 | -17 | -12 | -5 | -2 |
| General outlook | 0 | -18 | -12 | -10 | -7 |
| Real estate activities (11%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 74 | 86 | 91 | 95 |
| Past activity | 7 | -29 | -22 | 1 | 7 |
| Expected activity | 6 | -6 | 8 | 1 | 1 |
| Expected demand | 1 | -10 | 2 | 2 | -4 |
| Past employment | 2 | -20 | -22 | -5 | 9 |
| Expected employment | 2 | -14 | -15 | -1 | 6 |
| General outlook | -4 | -20 | -8 | -13 | -11 |
| Professional, scientific and technical activities (24%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 69 | 85 | 89 | 92 |
| Past activity | -1 | -63 | -57 | -33 | -9 |
| Expected activity | -2 | -34 | -9 | -10 | -12 |
| Expected demand | -5 | -36 | -14 | -14 | -14 |
| Past employment | 1 | -38 | -33 | -18 | -5 |
| Expected employment | 0 | -27 | -16 | -13 | -11 |
| General outlook | -9 | -40 | -25 | -17 | -17 |
| Administrative and support service activities (18%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 84 | 92 | 100 | 100 |
| Past activity | 5 | -78 | -67 | -27 | 7 |
| Expected activity | 5 | -4 | 6 | 11 | 8 |
| Expected demand | 3 | -1 | 3 | 11 | 6 |
| Past employment | 8 | -74 | -61 | -24 | 5 |
| Expected employment | 7 | -1 | 8 | 11 | 13 |
| General outlook | -4 | -24 | -9 | -5 | -11 |
- The figures in parentheses indicate the weights used to aggregate the sub-sector balances of opinion.
- *Composite indicator: average since 1989 (2006 for road transport); balances of opinion: average since 1988 (2006 for road transport)
- Source: INSEE, monthly business survey in services.
Revision
The business climate in August 2020 has been revised downwards by one point due to the inclusion of late responses from businesses.
For further information
A balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentage of “increase” responses and the percentage of “decrease” responses.
Since the definitive data of April 2020, the way of correcting mode of non-response has been modified. The usual method was to fill in missing answers by carrying on past answers from non-responding companies. The results are now computed on the sole basis of responding companies.
Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of the web page of this publication.
Next issue: 22 October 2020 at 8:45 am
Documentation
Abbreviated methodology (pdf,185 Ko)
Pour en savoir plus
A balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentage of “increase” responses and the percentage of “decrease” responses.
Since the definitive data of April 2020, the way of correcting mode of non-response has been modified. The usual method was to fill in missing answers by carrying on past answers from non-responding companies. The results are now computed on the sole basis of responding companies.
Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of the web page of this publication.
Next issue: 22 October 2020 at 8:45 am
Time series : Economic outlook surveys – Services
