27 August 2020
2020- n° 213In August 2020, the business climate in services has continued to bounce back Monthly survey of services - August 2020
According to the business managers surveyed in August 2020, the business climate has sharply improved for the fourth month in a row in services. It had reached in April its lowest level since the indicator was created (1989). At 94, the business climate composite indicator has gained 6 points this month but it still stands significantly below its long-term average (100).
Since the definitive data of April, the correction mode of non-response has been modified compared to the previous method which was to carry on past answers from non-responding companies. We have now considered that non-responding units would have answered as their elementary stratum’s units average.
According to the business managers surveyed in August 2020, the business climate has sharply improved for the fourth month in a row in services. It had reached in April its lowest level since the indicator was created (1989). At 94, the business climate composite indicator has gained 6 points this month but it still stands significantly below its long-term average (100).
tableauBusiness climate composite indicator
| Business climate composite indicator | |
|---|---|
| 1998-01 | 104.4 |
| 1998-02 | 105.6 |
| 1998-03 | 106.8 |
| 1998-04 | 108.0 |
| 1998-05 | 107.7 |
| 1998-06 | 107.3 |
| 1998-07 | 106.9 |
| 1998-08 | 106.0 |
| 1998-09 | 105.2 |
| 1998-10 | 104.3 |
| 1998-11 | 102.5 |
| 1998-12 | 100.6 |
| 1999-01 | 98.7 |
| 1999-02 | 99.6 |
| 1999-03 | 100.5 |
| 1999-04 | 101.4 |
| 1999-05 | 102.9 |
| 1999-06 | 104.4 |
| 1999-07 | 106.0 |
| 1999-08 | 108.7 |
| 1999-09 | 111.5 |
| 1999-10 | 114.2 |
| 1999-11 | 112.7 |
| 1999-12 | 111.2 |
| 2000-01 | 109.6 |
| 2000-02 | 109.0 |
| 2000-03 | 108.5 |
| 2000-04 | 107.9 |
| 2000-05 | 110.6 |
| 2000-06 | 113.4 |
| 2000-07 | 112.1 |
| 2000-08 | 114.0 |
| 2000-09 | 115.3 |
| 2000-10 | 114.7 |
| 2000-11 | 113.7 |
| 2000-12 | 114.2 |
| 2001-01 | 113.4 |
| 2001-02 | 112.2 |
| 2001-03 | 112.4 |
| 2001-04 | 108.4 |
| 2001-05 | 105.9 |
| 2001-06 | 105.7 |
| 2001-07 | 103.6 |
| 2001-08 | 102.9 |
| 2001-09 | 101.6 |
| 2001-10 | 97.0 |
| 2001-11 | 96.5 |
| 2001-12 | 96.9 |
| 2002-01 | 97.8 |
| 2002-02 | 99.0 |
| 2002-03 | 102.5 |
| 2002-04 | 104.6 |
| 2002-05 | 105.4 |
| 2002-06 | 102.9 |
| 2002-07 | 101.3 |
| 2002-08 | 100.0 |
| 2002-09 | 98.2 |
| 2002-10 | 98.8 |
| 2002-11 | 100.2 |
| 2002-12 | 101.0 |
| 2003-01 | 97.8 |
| 2003-02 | 96.5 |
| 2003-03 | 92.0 |
| 2003-04 | 89.3 |
| 2003-05 | 93.3 |
| 2003-06 | 94.7 |
| 2003-07 | 97.7 |
| 2003-08 | 99.0 |
| 2003-09 | 99.9 |
| 2003-10 | 100.7 |
| 2003-11 | 102.0 |
| 2003-12 | 104.2 |
| 2004-01 | 106.4 |
| 2004-02 | 106.3 |
| 2004-03 | 106.1 |
| 2004-04 | 106.0 |
| 2004-05 | 106.5 |
| 2004-06 | 105.4 |
| 2004-07 | 106.5 |
| 2004-08 | 106.1 |
| 2004-09 | 105.4 |
| 2004-10 | 106.6 |
| 2004-11 | 106.1 |
| 2004-12 | 108.8 |
| 2005-01 | 106.6 |
| 2005-02 | 106.4 |
| 2005-03 | 108.3 |
| 2005-04 | 108.0 |
| 2005-05 | 106.2 |
| 2005-06 | 108.4 |
| 2005-07 | 107.7 |
| 2005-08 | 107.4 |
| 2005-09 | 107.0 |
| 2005-10 | 108.5 |
| 2005-11 | 106.5 |
| 2005-12 | 106.8 |
| 2006-01 | 108.7 |
| 2006-02 | 106.3 |
| 2006-03 | 107.6 |
| 2006-04 | 107.9 |
| 2006-05 | 110.4 |
| 2006-06 | 109.2 |
| 2006-07 | 110.3 |
| 2006-08 | 110.4 |
| 2006-09 | 110.6 |
| 2006-10 | 110.8 |
| 2006-11 | 112.9 |
| 2006-12 | 111.4 |
| 2007-01 | 110.9 |
| 2007-02 | 112.2 |
| 2007-03 | 113.2 |
| 2007-04 | 113.0 |
| 2007-05 | 112.8 |
| 2007-06 | 112.5 |
| 2007-07 | 113.0 |
| 2007-08 | 112.2 |
| 2007-09 | 111.4 |
| 2007-10 | 110.1 |
| 2007-11 | 110.3 |
| 2007-12 | 109.2 |
| 2008-01 | 110.5 |
| 2008-02 | 108.7 |
| 2008-03 | 108.8 |
| 2008-04 | 107.3 |
| 2008-05 | 104.9 |
| 2008-06 | 101.8 |
| 2008-07 | 97.6 |
| 2008-08 | 96.2 |
| 2008-09 | 94.2 |
| 2008-10 | 85.9 |
| 2008-11 | 81.9 |
| 2008-12 | 78.9 |
| 2009-01 | 76.3 |
| 2009-02 | 75.2 |
| 2009-03 | 70.2 |
| 2009-04 | 70.3 |
| 2009-05 | 74.3 |
| 2009-06 | 78.7 |
| 2009-07 | 82.3 |
| 2009-08 | 84.9 |
| 2009-09 | 88.0 |
| 2009-10 | 91.0 |
| 2009-11 | 92.4 |
| 2009-12 | 92.9 |
| 2010-01 | 94.4 |
| 2010-02 | 94.6 |
| 2010-03 | 94.8 |
| 2010-04 | 97.9 |
| 2010-05 | 99.5 |
| 2010-06 | 98.6 |
| 2010-07 | 99.4 |
| 2010-08 | 100.9 |
| 2010-09 | 101.9 |
| 2010-10 | 103.1 |
| 2010-11 | 105.0 |
| 2010-12 | 106.9 |
| 2011-01 | 107.2 |
| 2011-02 | 109.3 |
| 2011-03 | 110.4 |
| 2011-04 | 109.1 |
| 2011-05 | 107.8 |
| 2011-06 | 107.4 |
| 2011-07 | 105.4 |
| 2011-08 | 101.1 |
| 2011-09 | 98.9 |
| 2011-10 | 97.9 |
| 2011-11 | 95.8 |
| 2011-12 | 95.4 |
| 2012-01 | 93.6 |
| 2012-02 | 92.9 |
| 2012-03 | 94.3 |
| 2012-04 | 96.2 |
| 2012-05 | 92.7 |
| 2012-06 | 90.8 |
| 2012-07 | 90.3 |
| 2012-08 | 88.3 |
| 2012-09 | 88.0 |
| 2012-10 | 86.9 |
| 2012-11 | 86.3 |
| 2012-12 | 87.9 |
| 2013-01 | 88.9 |
| 2013-02 | 87.7 |
| 2013-03 | 84.9 |
| 2013-04 | 84.1 |
| 2013-05 | 85.5 |
| 2013-06 | 86.7 |
| 2013-07 | 87.2 |
| 2013-08 | 89.1 |
| 2013-09 | 92.6 |
| 2013-10 | 92.2 |
| 2013-11 | 92.8 |
| 2013-12 | 91.4 |
| 2014-01 | 92.7 |
| 2014-02 | 92.6 |
| 2014-03 | 93.4 |
| 2014-04 | 93.7 |
| 2014-05 | 92.7 |
| 2014-06 | 92.7 |
| 2014-07 | 93.0 |
| 2014-08 | 92.0 |
| 2014-09 | 91.5 |
| 2014-10 | 91.8 |
| 2014-11 | 91.7 |
| 2014-12 | 91.8 |
| 2015-01 | 91.6 |
| 2015-02 | 91.9 |
| 2015-03 | 92.7 |
| 2015-04 | 94.3 |
| 2015-05 | 95.8 |
| 2015-06 | 97.1 |
| 2015-07 | 97.8 |
| 2015-08 | 98.8 |
| 2015-09 | 97.9 |
| 2015-10 | 99.8 |
| 2015-11 | 99.5 |
| 2015-12 | 97.4 |
| 2016-01 | 100.3 |
| 2016-02 | 100.1 |
| 2016-03 | 99.8 |
| 2016-04 | 98.6 |
| 2016-05 | 101.0 |
| 2016-06 | 99.4 |
| 2016-07 | 100.6 |
| 2016-08 | 100.2 |
| 2016-09 | 101.0 |
| 2016-10 | 101.0 |
| 2016-11 | 101.0 |
| 2016-12 | 103.7 |
| 2017-01 | 101.8 |
| 2017-02 | 102.9 |
| 2017-03 | 103.4 |
| 2017-04 | 103.3 |
| 2017-05 | 102.9 |
| 2017-06 | 103.7 |
| 2017-07 | 103.9 |
| 2017-08 | 105.9 |
| 2017-09 | 106.6 |
| 2017-10 | 106.8 |
| 2017-11 | 107.4 |
| 2017-12 | 108.7 |
| 2018-01 | 107.7 |
| 2018-02 | 106.5 |
| 2018-03 | 106.8 |
| 2018-04 | 105.9 |
| 2018-05 | 104.4 |
| 2018-06 | 104.9 |
| 2018-07 | 104.4 |
| 2018-08 | 103.8 |
| 2018-09 | 104.6 |
| 2018-10 | 103.4 |
| 2018-11 | 103.8 |
| 2018-12 | 102.3 |
| 2019-01 | 103.6 |
| 2019-02 | 103.5 |
| 2019-03 | 104.7 |
| 2019-04 | 105.5 |
| 2019-05 | 105.9 |
| 2019-06 | 106.3 |
| 2019-07 | 105.1 |
| 2019-08 | 104.8 |
| 2019-09 | 105.7 |
| 2019-10 | 105.8 |
| 2019-11 | 106.2 |
| 2019-12 | 106.6 |
| 2020-01 | 106.2 |
| 2020-02 | 105.9 |
| 2020-03 | 92.9 |
| 2020-04 | 41.4 |
| 2020-05 | 51.8 |
| 2020-06 | 78.3 |
| 2020-07 | 88.4 |
| 2020-08 | 93.5 |
graphiqueBusiness climate composite indicator
- Source: INSEE
The balances of opinion on the three last months have strongly advanced but business managers are more temperate about the activity for the three next months
The balance of opinion on past activity has strongly recovered since July, but remains far below its long-term average. That on the general outlook of the sector’s activity has increased since May, while remaining below its average level. For the three next months, business leaders are more temperate: the balances on expected activity and on expected demand, slightly below their average the last month, have weakened a little in August.
The balance on expected employment has bounced back since May, approaching its average level. That on past employment has strongly improved since July but remains very deteriorated.
The balances on past and expected investments have continued to gradually recover. In particular, the one on past investment has sharply picked up this month, after reaching in June 2020 the lowest point since the start of the series (2005). However, these two balances remain well below their average.
tableauEconomic outlook in the services sector
| Average* | May 2020 | June 2020 | July 2020 | Aug. 2020 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Composite indicator | 100 | 52 | 78 | 88 | 94 |
| General outlook | -7 | -60 | -28 | -16 | -11 |
| Past activity | 1 | -51 | -61 | -55 | -26 |
| Expected activity | 2 | -52 | -13 | 1 | -1 |
| Expected demand | -1 | -48 | -13 | -4 | -5 |
| Past selling prices | -4 | -17 | -18 | -14 | -10 |
| Expected selling prices | -3 | -23 | -12 | -6 | -7 |
| Past employment | 2 | -45 | -56 | -48 | -21 |
| except temporary work agencies | 0 | -39 | -50 | -40 | -19 |
| Expected employment | 2 | -45 | -12 | -5 | -1 |
| except temporary work agencies | -1 | -46 | -20 | -11 | -7 |
| Investments | |||||
| Past investments | 2 | -32 | -36 | -31 | -19 |
| Expected investments | 1 | -39 | -15 | -12 | -8 |
- * Average since 1989 for the composite indicator and since 1988 for the balances of opinion
- Source: INSEE, monthly business survey in services.
In all sub-sectors, the business climate has improved again
The business climate indicator has improved in all service sub-sectors. This revival is particularly marked in administrative and support service activities: the climate has hit its long-term average (100), due to the strong improvement in the balances on past activity and past employment. In road freight transport, the indicator has returned above its average. In contrast, in accommodation and food services, the business climate remains deteriorated, significantly below its average level, with short-term prospects of activity, demand and employment assessed more negatively than in the previous month. The climate remains also well below its average in the other sub-sectors.
tableauBusiness climate composite indicator and balances of opinion by sub-sector in services
| Aggregated classification (NA 2008) at level A21 | Mean* | May 2020 | June 2020 | July 2020 | Aug. 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Road transport (8%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 77 | 97 | 99 | 106 |
| Past activity | -7 | -59 | -76 | -61 | -15 |
| Expected activity | -7 | -45 | 9 | 4 | 8 |
| Expected demand | -9 | -39 | -3 | 3 | 1 |
| Past employment | -6 | -46 | -62 | -52 | -19 |
| Expected employment | -7 | -42 | -7 | 0 | 12 |
| General outlook | -19 | -61 | -18 | -10 | -5 |
| Accommodation and food service activities (11%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 27 | 70 | 88 | 90 |
| Past activity | -8 | -100 | -100 | -85 | -32 |
| Expected activity | -7 | -100 | -27 | 0 | -16 |
| Expected demand | -9 | -97 | -20 | -7 | -14 |
| Past employment | -5 | -62 | -75 | -63 | -27 |
| Expected employment | -6 | -80 | -31 | -18 | -22 |
| General outlook | -14 | -100 | -62 | -32 | -29 |
| Information and communication (26%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 69 | 82 | 86 | 90 |
| Past activity | 7 | -20 | -36 | -46 | -31 |
| Expected activity | 9 | -33 | -4 | 6 | 1 |
| Expected demand | 9 | -29 | -5 | 2 | -4 |
| Past employment | 6 | -13 | -29 | -27 | -23 |
| Expected employment | 10 | -38 | -17 | -12 | -2 |
| General outlook | 0 | -46 | -18 | -12 | -8 |
| Real estate activities (11%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 45 | 74 | 86 | 92 |
| Past activity | 7 | -30 | -29 | -22 | 2 |
| Expected activity | 6 | -38 | -6 | 8 | 2 |
| Expected demand | 1 | -30 | -10 | 2 | 4 |
| Past employment | 2 | -26 | -20 | -22 | -5 |
| Expected employment | 2 | -18 | -14 | -15 | -1 |
| General outlook | -4 | -50 | -20 | -8 | -12 |
| Professional, scientific and technical activities (24%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 50 | 69 | 85 | 91 |
| Past activity | -1 | -51 | -63 | -57 | -33 |
| Expected activity | -2 | -61 | -34 | -9 | -9 |
| Expected demand | -5 | -56 | -36 | -14 | -11 |
| Past employment | 1 | -35 | -38 | -33 | -20 |
| Expected employment | 1 | -42 | -27 | -16 | -11 |
| General outlook | -9 | -65 | -40 | -25 | -15 |
| Administrative and support service activities (18%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 52 | 84 | 92 | 100 |
| Past activity | 5 | -70 | -78 | -67 | -27 |
| Expected activity | 5 | -53 | -4 | 6 | 12 |
| Expected demand | 3 | -53 | -1 | 3 | 10 |
| Past employment | 8 | -58 | -74 | -61 | -24 |
| Expected employment | 7 | -40 | -1 | 8 | 10 |
| General outlook | -4 | -60 | -24 | -9 | -4 |
- The figures in parentheses indicate the weights used to aggregate the sub-sector balances of opinion.
- *Composite indicator: average since 1989 (2006 for road transport); balances of opinion: average since 1988 (2006 for road transport)
- Source: INSEE, monthly business survey in services.
Revision
The business climate in July 2020 has been revised downwards by one point due to the inclusion of late responses from businesses.
For further information
A balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentage of “increase” responses and the percentage of “decrease” responses.
Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of the web page of this publication.
Next issue: 24 September 2020 at 8:45 am
Documentation
Abbreviated methodology (pdf,185 Ko)
Pour en savoir plus
A balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentage of “increase” responses and the percentage of “decrease” responses.
Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of the web page of this publication.
Next issue: 24 September 2020 at 8:45 am
Time series : Economic outlook surveys – Services
