24 June 2020
2020- n° 155In June 2020, the business climate in services, still deteriorated, has sharply improved Monthly survey of services - June 2020
According to the business managers surveyed in June 2020, the business climate has improved again in services, more strongly than May, linked to the acceleration of the lockdown exit. It had reached in April its lowest level since the indicator was created (1989). The business climate composite indicator has gained 25 points, the largest increase since the start of the series. However, at 77, it remains very deteriorated. The balances of opinion on past developments have continued to deteriorate while those relating to expected developments have improved again.
Due to the context of the fight against the propagation of COVID-19, statistics published in this Informations Rapides issue could be less accurate than usual. Companies’ responses were collected between 27 May and 19 June 2020, solely online. Consequently, the response rate is a little lower this month than before the beginning of the health crisis, even though it has picked up compared to its low point of April. In addition, for this publication as well as for April (after revision) and May, the method to correct non-response has been modified compared to the usual method which reproduces past responses from non-responding companies. We have considered that the non-responding units in April (after revision), in May then in June would have responded as the average of the responding units of the elementary stratum to which they belong.
According to the business managers surveyed in June 2020, the business climate has improved again in services, more strongly than May, linked to the acceleration of the lockdown exit. It had reached in April its lowest level since the indicator was created (1989). The business climate composite indicator has gained 25 points, the largest increase since the start of the series. However, at 77, it remains very deteriorated. The balances of opinion on past developments have continued to deteriorate while those relating to expected developments have improved again.
tableauBusiness climate composite indicator
| Business climate composite indicator | |
|---|---|
| 1998-01 | 104.4 |
| 1998-02 | 105.6 |
| 1998-03 | 106.8 |
| 1998-04 | 108.0 |
| 1998-05 | 107.7 |
| 1998-06 | 107.3 |
| 1998-07 | 106.9 |
| 1998-08 | 106.0 |
| 1998-09 | 105.2 |
| 1998-10 | 104.3 |
| 1998-11 | 102.5 |
| 1998-12 | 100.6 |
| 1999-01 | 98.7 |
| 1999-02 | 99.6 |
| 1999-03 | 100.5 |
| 1999-04 | 101.4 |
| 1999-05 | 102.9 |
| 1999-06 | 104.4 |
| 1999-07 | 106.0 |
| 1999-08 | 108.7 |
| 1999-09 | 111.5 |
| 1999-10 | 114.2 |
| 1999-11 | 112.7 |
| 1999-12 | 111.2 |
| 2000-01 | 109.6 |
| 2000-02 | 109.0 |
| 2000-03 | 108.5 |
| 2000-04 | 107.9 |
| 2000-05 | 110.6 |
| 2000-06 | 113.3 |
| 2000-07 | 112.0 |
| 2000-08 | 113.9 |
| 2000-09 | 115.2 |
| 2000-10 | 114.6 |
| 2000-11 | 113.6 |
| 2000-12 | 114.2 |
| 2001-01 | 113.3 |
| 2001-02 | 112.1 |
| 2001-03 | 112.4 |
| 2001-04 | 108.4 |
| 2001-05 | 105.8 |
| 2001-06 | 105.7 |
| 2001-07 | 103.6 |
| 2001-08 | 102.9 |
| 2001-09 | 101.6 |
| 2001-10 | 97.0 |
| 2001-11 | 96.4 |
| 2001-12 | 96.7 |
| 2002-01 | 97.6 |
| 2002-02 | 98.8 |
| 2002-03 | 102.4 |
| 2002-04 | 104.5 |
| 2002-05 | 105.3 |
| 2002-06 | 102.8 |
| 2002-07 | 101.2 |
| 2002-08 | 99.9 |
| 2002-09 | 98.1 |
| 2002-10 | 98.7 |
| 2002-11 | 100.1 |
| 2002-12 | 101.0 |
| 2003-01 | 97.8 |
| 2003-02 | 96.4 |
| 2003-03 | 91.9 |
| 2003-04 | 89.2 |
| 2003-05 | 93.2 |
| 2003-06 | 94.6 |
| 2003-07 | 97.6 |
| 2003-08 | 98.9 |
| 2003-09 | 99.8 |
| 2003-10 | 100.6 |
| 2003-11 | 101.9 |
| 2003-12 | 104.1 |
| 2004-01 | 106.2 |
| 2004-02 | 106.2 |
| 2004-03 | 106.0 |
| 2004-04 | 105.8 |
| 2004-05 | 106.4 |
| 2004-06 | 105.3 |
| 2004-07 | 106.5 |
| 2004-08 | 106.0 |
| 2004-09 | 105.3 |
| 2004-10 | 106.5 |
| 2004-11 | 106.0 |
| 2004-12 | 108.7 |
| 2005-01 | 106.5 |
| 2005-02 | 106.3 |
| 2005-03 | 108.2 |
| 2005-04 | 107.9 |
| 2005-05 | 106.0 |
| 2005-06 | 108.3 |
| 2005-07 | 107.7 |
| 2005-08 | 107.3 |
| 2005-09 | 106.9 |
| 2005-10 | 108.4 |
| 2005-11 | 106.4 |
| 2005-12 | 106.7 |
| 2006-01 | 108.6 |
| 2006-02 | 106.3 |
| 2006-03 | 107.5 |
| 2006-04 | 107.8 |
| 2006-05 | 110.4 |
| 2006-06 | 109.1 |
| 2006-07 | 110.2 |
| 2006-08 | 110.3 |
| 2006-09 | 110.5 |
| 2006-10 | 110.8 |
| 2006-11 | 112.9 |
| 2006-12 | 111.3 |
| 2007-01 | 110.8 |
| 2007-02 | 112.1 |
| 2007-03 | 113.1 |
| 2007-04 | 112.9 |
| 2007-05 | 112.8 |
| 2007-06 | 112.4 |
| 2007-07 | 112.9 |
| 2007-08 | 112.1 |
| 2007-09 | 111.4 |
| 2007-10 | 110.1 |
| 2007-11 | 110.2 |
| 2007-12 | 109.1 |
| 2008-01 | 110.4 |
| 2008-02 | 108.7 |
| 2008-03 | 108.8 |
| 2008-04 | 107.3 |
| 2008-05 | 104.8 |
| 2008-06 | 101.8 |
| 2008-07 | 97.6 |
| 2008-08 | 96.2 |
| 2008-09 | 94.2 |
| 2008-10 | 85.8 |
| 2008-11 | 81.9 |
| 2008-12 | 78.9 |
| 2009-01 | 76.3 |
| 2009-02 | 75.2 |
| 2009-03 | 70.1 |
| 2009-04 | 70.3 |
| 2009-05 | 74.2 |
| 2009-06 | 78.6 |
| 2009-07 | 82.2 |
| 2009-08 | 84.8 |
| 2009-09 | 87.9 |
| 2009-10 | 91.0 |
| 2009-11 | 92.3 |
| 2009-12 | 92.9 |
| 2010-01 | 94.3 |
| 2010-02 | 94.5 |
| 2010-03 | 94.7 |
| 2010-04 | 97.8 |
| 2010-05 | 99.4 |
| 2010-06 | 98.5 |
| 2010-07 | 99.4 |
| 2010-08 | 100.9 |
| 2010-09 | 101.8 |
| 2010-10 | 103.1 |
| 2010-11 | 104.9 |
| 2010-12 | 106.8 |
| 2011-01 | 107.1 |
| 2011-02 | 109.2 |
| 2011-03 | 110.4 |
| 2011-04 | 109.1 |
| 2011-05 | 107.8 |
| 2011-06 | 107.3 |
| 2011-07 | 105.4 |
| 2011-08 | 101.0 |
| 2011-09 | 98.9 |
| 2011-10 | 97.8 |
| 2011-11 | 95.7 |
| 2011-12 | 95.4 |
| 2012-01 | 93.6 |
| 2012-02 | 92.9 |
| 2012-03 | 94.3 |
| 2012-04 | 96.2 |
| 2012-05 | 92.7 |
| 2012-06 | 90.7 |
| 2012-07 | 90.2 |
| 2012-08 | 88.3 |
| 2012-09 | 87.9 |
| 2012-10 | 86.8 |
| 2012-11 | 86.3 |
| 2012-12 | 87.8 |
| 2013-01 | 88.8 |
| 2013-02 | 87.6 |
| 2013-03 | 84.9 |
| 2013-04 | 84.0 |
| 2013-05 | 85.4 |
| 2013-06 | 86.6 |
| 2013-07 | 87.1 |
| 2013-08 | 89.0 |
| 2013-09 | 92.5 |
| 2013-10 | 92.1 |
| 2013-11 | 92.8 |
| 2013-12 | 91.4 |
| 2014-01 | 92.7 |
| 2014-02 | 92.5 |
| 2014-03 | 93.4 |
| 2014-04 | 93.7 |
| 2014-05 | 92.7 |
| 2014-06 | 92.7 |
| 2014-07 | 92.9 |
| 2014-08 | 92.0 |
| 2014-09 | 91.5 |
| 2014-10 | 91.7 |
| 2014-11 | 91.6 |
| 2014-12 | 91.7 |
| 2015-01 | 91.5 |
| 2015-02 | 91.8 |
| 2015-03 | 92.6 |
| 2015-04 | 94.2 |
| 2015-05 | 95.7 |
| 2015-06 | 97.0 |
| 2015-07 | 97.7 |
| 2015-08 | 98.7 |
| 2015-09 | 97.8 |
| 2015-10 | 99.7 |
| 2015-11 | 99.5 |
| 2015-12 | 97.3 |
| 2016-01 | 100.2 |
| 2016-02 | 100.0 |
| 2016-03 | 99.7 |
| 2016-04 | 98.5 |
| 2016-05 | 100.9 |
| 2016-06 | 99.3 |
| 2016-07 | 100.5 |
| 2016-08 | 100.2 |
| 2016-09 | 100.9 |
| 2016-10 | 100.9 |
| 2016-11 | 100.9 |
| 2016-12 | 103.6 |
| 2017-01 | 101.8 |
| 2017-02 | 102.8 |
| 2017-03 | 103.4 |
| 2017-04 | 103.2 |
| 2017-05 | 102.8 |
| 2017-06 | 103.6 |
| 2017-07 | 103.9 |
| 2017-08 | 105.8 |
| 2017-09 | 106.6 |
| 2017-10 | 106.7 |
| 2017-11 | 107.4 |
| 2017-12 | 108.7 |
| 2018-01 | 107.6 |
| 2018-02 | 106.5 |
| 2018-03 | 106.7 |
| 2018-04 | 105.8 |
| 2018-05 | 104.3 |
| 2018-06 | 104.8 |
| 2018-07 | 104.4 |
| 2018-08 | 103.7 |
| 2018-09 | 104.5 |
| 2018-10 | 103.2 |
| 2018-11 | 103.7 |
| 2018-12 | 102.2 |
| 2019-01 | 103.5 |
| 2019-02 | 103.4 |
| 2019-03 | 104.6 |
| 2019-04 | 105.4 |
| 2019-05 | 105.8 |
| 2019-06 | 106.2 |
| 2019-07 | 105.1 |
| 2019-08 | 104.7 |
| 2019-09 | 105.6 |
| 2019-10 | 105.7 |
| 2019-11 | 106.1 |
| 2019-12 | 106.5 |
| 2020-01 | 106.1 |
| 2020-02 | 105.8 |
| 2020-03 | 92.9 |
| 2020-04 | 41.7 |
| 2020-05 | 51.7 |
| 2020-06 | 77.3 |
graphiqueBusiness climate composite indicator
- Source: INSEE
The balances on expectations have picked up
The balances of opinion on the general outlook of the sector’s activity, on own activity prospects and on expected demand have increased again, faster than in May. However, the balance on activity in the three previous months has deteriorated again. These balances stand all significantly below their long-term average. In particular, that on past activity, considerably deteriorated, has even reached its lowest level since the start of the survey (1988).
Concerning employment, the balance on expected employment has steeply increased, albeit remaining well below its average, whereas that on past employment has declined again. The latter has reached its lowest level since the beginning of the survey.
The balance on past investments has slightly deteriorated and reached its lowest level since the beginning of the indicator, in 2005. In contrast, the balance on expected investments has improved again, after having reached its lowest point in April. However, this balance remains significantly below its average level.
tableauEconomic outlook in the services sector
| Average* | Mar. 2020 | Apr. 2020 | May 2020 | June 2020 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Composite indicator | 100 | 93 | 42 | 52 | 77 |
| General outlook | -7 | -15 | -76 | -60 | -29 |
| Past activity | 2 | 5 | -22 | -51 | -62 |
| Expected activity | 2 | -10 | -71 | -52 | -13 |
| Expected demand | -1 | -12 | -69 | -48 | -14 |
| Past selling prices | -4 | 0 | -8 | -17 | -19 |
| Expected selling prices | -3 | -4 | -23 | -23 | -12 |
| Past employment | 3 | -5 | -35 | -45 | -56 |
| except temporary work agencies | 1 | -3 | -29 | -39 | -49 |
| Expected employment | 2 | -6 | -65 | -45 | -13 |
| except temporary work agencies | -1 | -3 | -59 | -46 | -20 |
| Investments | |||||
| Past investments | 2 | 7 | -13 | -32 | -35 |
| Expected investments | 1 | -1 | -47 | -39 | -16 |
- * Average since 1989 for the composite indicator and since 1988 for the balances of opinion
- Source: INSEE, monthly business survey in services.
The business climate indicator remains below its average in all sub-sectors. It has spread out from 68 in professional, scientific and technical activities to 96 in road freight transport. However, the business climate has improved in all sub-sectors, with different magnitude. The climate has increased by 13 points in information-communication whereas it has jumped by 44 points in accommodation and food services, after reaching, the lowest points ever recorded in this sector in April and May.
tableauBusiness climate composite indicator and balances of opinion by sub-sector in services
| Aggregated classification (NA 2008) at level A21 | Mean* | Mar. 2020 | Apr. 2020 | May 2020 | June 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Road transport (8%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 93 | 64 | 77 | 96 |
| Past activity | -6 | -6 | -35 | -59 | -76 |
| Expected activity | -7 | -23 | -81 | -45 | 8 |
| Expected demand | -9 | -30 | -73 | -39 | -3 |
| Past employment | -5 | -3 | -27 | -46 | -63 |
| Expected employment | -7 | -11 | -51 | -42 | -7 |
| General outlook | -19 | -30 | -84 | -61 | -20 |
| Accommodation and food service activities (11%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 91 | 29 | 27 | 71 |
| Past activity | -7 | 5 | -66 | -100 | -99 |
| Expected activity | -7 | -20 | -100 | -100 | -23 |
| Expected demand | -9 | -21 | -100 | -97 | -16 |
| Past employment | -4 | -10 | -51 | -62 | -75 |
| Expected employment | -6 | -8 | -82 | -80 | -31 |
| General outlook | -14 | -32 | -100 | -100 | -61 |
| Information and communication (26%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 99 | 63 | 69 | 82 |
| Past activity | 7 | 21 | 5 | -20 | -35 |
| Expected activity | 9 | 2 | -51 | -33 | -6 |
| Expected demand | 9 | 3 | -58 | -29 | -6 |
| Past employment | 6 | -10 | -18 | -13 | -28 |
| Expected employment | 10 | 7 | -33 | -38 | -18 |
| General outlook | 0 | -3 | -63 | -46 | -18 |
| Real estate activities (11%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 92 | 55 | 45 | 74 |
| Past activity | 7 | 10 | -6 | -30 | -29 |
| Expected activity | 6 | -4 | -40 | -38 | -6 |
| Expected demand | 1 | -10 | -31 | -30 | -10 |
| Past employment | 2 | -6 | -3 | -26 | -20 |
| Expected employment | 2 | -3 | -23 | -18 | -13 |
| General outlook | -4 | -12 | -57 | -50 | -20 |
| Professional, scientific and technical activities (24%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 96 | 40 | 49 | 68 |
| Past activity | -1 | -1 | -26 | -51 | -64 |
| Expected activity | -2 | -10 | -78 | -61 | -35 |
| Expected demand | -5 | -12 | -75 | -56 | -36 |
| Past employment | 1 | 3 | -18 | -35 | -39 |
| Expected employment | 1 | 5 | -57 | -42 | -27 |
| General outlook | -9 | -14 | -78 | -65 | -41 |
| Administrative and support service activities (18%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 85 | 39 | 52 | 83 |
| Past activity | 5 | -5 | -36 | -70 | -79 |
| Expected activity | 5 | -20 | -78 | -53 | -5 |
| Expected demand | 3 | -21 | -75 | -53 | -2 |
| Past employment | 8 | -6 | -48 | -58 | -73 |
| Expected employment | 7 | -13 | -85 | -40 | -2 |
| General outlook | -4 | -15 | -83 | -60 | -24 |
- The figures in parentheses indicate the weights used to aggregate the sub-sector balances of opinion.
- *Composite indicator: average since 1989 (2006 for road transport); balances of opinion: average since 1988 (2006 for road transport)
- Source: INSEE, monthly business survey in services.
Revision
The business climate in May has been revised downwards by two points. These revisions are mainly explained by the inclusion of late responses from businesses.
For further information
A balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentage of “increase” responses and the percentage of “decrease” responses.
Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of the web page of this publication.
Next issue: 23 July 2020 at 8:45 am
Documentation
Abbreviated methodology (pdf,185 Ko)
Pour en savoir plus
A balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentage of “increase” responses and the percentage of “decrease” responses.
Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of the web page of this publication.
Next issue: 23 July 2020 at 8:45 am
Time series : Economic outlook surveys – Services
