23 April 2020
2020- n° 104In April 2020, the business climate has very strongly fallen in services Monthly survey of services - April 2020
According to business managers surveyed in April 2020, the business climate has very dramatically fallen in services. The business climate composite indicator has lost 37 points – the steepest fall never since the beginning of the indicator in 1989, the second most important fall (to 14 points) dating from the previous month. At 55, this climate stands at its lowest level since the beginning of the series, 12 points below the previous lowest level hit in March and April 2009.
Given the context of the fight against the spread of COVID-19, the statistics published in this issue of Informations Rapides may be less accurate than usual.
Companies’ responses were collected between 25 March and 17 April 2020, during general lockdown, solely online and without any reminder. Consequently, the response rate is lower this month than usual. Given the usual non-response completion design, relying on past answers for non-responding firms, it is possible that some indicators are overestimated in this publication.
According to business managers surveyed in April 2020, the business climate has very dramatically fallen in services. The business climate composite indicator has lost 37 points – the steepest fall never since the beginning of the indicator in 1989, the second most important fall (to 14 points) dating from the previous month. At 55, this climate stands at its lowest level since the beginning of the series, 12 points below the previous lowest level hit in March and April 2009.
tableauBusiness climate composite indicator
| Business climate composite indicator | |
|---|---|
| 1998-01 | 104.4 |
| 1998-02 | 105.6 |
| 1998-03 | 106.8 |
| 1998-04 | 108.0 |
| 1998-05 | 107.7 |
| 1998-06 | 107.3 |
| 1998-07 | 106.9 |
| 1998-08 | 106.0 |
| 1998-09 | 105.2 |
| 1998-10 | 104.3 |
| 1998-11 | 102.5 |
| 1998-12 | 100.6 |
| 1999-01 | 98.7 |
| 1999-02 | 99.6 |
| 1999-03 | 100.5 |
| 1999-04 | 101.4 |
| 1999-05 | 102.9 |
| 1999-06 | 104.4 |
| 1999-07 | 106.0 |
| 1999-08 | 108.7 |
| 1999-09 | 111.5 |
| 1999-10 | 114.2 |
| 1999-11 | 112.7 |
| 1999-12 | 111.2 |
| 2000-01 | 109.6 |
| 2000-02 | 109.0 |
| 2000-03 | 108.5 |
| 2000-04 | 107.9 |
| 2000-05 | 111.1 |
| 2000-06 | 114.3 |
| 2000-07 | 112.8 |
| 2000-08 | 114.9 |
| 2000-09 | 116.4 |
| 2000-10 | 115.7 |
| 2000-11 | 114.6 |
| 2000-12 | 115.2 |
| 2001-01 | 114.4 |
| 2001-02 | 113.0 |
| 2001-03 | 113.3 |
| 2001-04 | 108.8 |
| 2001-05 | 106.0 |
| 2001-06 | 105.8 |
| 2001-07 | 103.4 |
| 2001-08 | 102.7 |
| 2001-09 | 101.4 |
| 2001-10 | 96.3 |
| 2001-11 | 95.5 |
| 2001-12 | 95.9 |
| 2002-01 | 96.9 |
| 2002-02 | 98.1 |
| 2002-03 | 102.2 |
| 2002-04 | 104.5 |
| 2002-05 | 105.4 |
| 2002-06 | 102.6 |
| 2002-07 | 100.9 |
| 2002-08 | 99.4 |
| 2002-09 | 97.4 |
| 2002-10 | 98.1 |
| 2002-11 | 99.7 |
| 2002-12 | 100.6 |
| 2003-01 | 97.1 |
| 2003-02 | 95.6 |
| 2003-03 | 90.5 |
| 2003-04 | 87.7 |
| 2003-05 | 92.0 |
| 2003-06 | 93.5 |
| 2003-07 | 96.8 |
| 2003-08 | 98.3 |
| 2003-09 | 99.3 |
| 2003-10 | 100.3 |
| 2003-11 | 101.7 |
| 2003-12 | 104.2 |
| 2004-01 | 106.5 |
| 2004-02 | 106.5 |
| 2004-03 | 106.2 |
| 2004-04 | 106.0 |
| 2004-05 | 106.6 |
| 2004-06 | 105.4 |
| 2004-07 | 106.7 |
| 2004-08 | 106.2 |
| 2004-09 | 105.5 |
| 2004-10 | 106.8 |
| 2004-11 | 106.2 |
| 2004-12 | 109.3 |
| 2005-01 | 106.8 |
| 2005-02 | 106.4 |
| 2005-03 | 108.7 |
| 2005-04 | 108.4 |
| 2005-05 | 106.3 |
| 2005-06 | 108.8 |
| 2005-07 | 108.2 |
| 2005-08 | 107.8 |
| 2005-09 | 107.4 |
| 2005-10 | 108.9 |
| 2005-11 | 106.8 |
| 2005-12 | 107.0 |
| 2006-01 | 109.1 |
| 2006-02 | 106.6 |
| 2006-03 | 108.0 |
| 2006-04 | 108.4 |
| 2006-05 | 111.2 |
| 2006-06 | 109.8 |
| 2006-07 | 110.9 |
| 2006-08 | 111.0 |
| 2006-09 | 111.3 |
| 2006-10 | 111.6 |
| 2006-11 | 113.9 |
| 2006-12 | 112.2 |
| 2007-01 | 111.6 |
| 2007-02 | 113.0 |
| 2007-03 | 114.1 |
| 2007-04 | 113.8 |
| 2007-05 | 113.7 |
| 2007-06 | 113.3 |
| 2007-07 | 113.9 |
| 2007-08 | 113.0 |
| 2007-09 | 112.2 |
| 2007-10 | 110.8 |
| 2007-11 | 110.9 |
| 2007-12 | 109.7 |
| 2008-01 | 111.1 |
| 2008-02 | 109.3 |
| 2008-03 | 109.4 |
| 2008-04 | 107.7 |
| 2008-05 | 105.0 |
| 2008-06 | 101.7 |
| 2008-07 | 97.0 |
| 2008-08 | 95.4 |
| 2008-09 | 93.2 |
| 2008-10 | 84.0 |
| 2008-11 | 79.8 |
| 2008-12 | 76.3 |
| 2009-01 | 73.5 |
| 2009-02 | 72.2 |
| 2009-03 | 66.6 |
| 2009-04 | 66.6 |
| 2009-05 | 70.9 |
| 2009-06 | 75.9 |
| 2009-07 | 79.9 |
| 2009-08 | 82.8 |
| 2009-09 | 86.2 |
| 2009-10 | 89.6 |
| 2009-11 | 91.0 |
| 2009-12 | 91.6 |
| 2010-01 | 93.2 |
| 2010-02 | 93.4 |
| 2010-03 | 93.7 |
| 2010-04 | 97.1 |
| 2010-05 | 98.9 |
| 2010-06 | 98.0 |
| 2010-07 | 98.9 |
| 2010-08 | 100.6 |
| 2010-09 | 101.6 |
| 2010-10 | 103.0 |
| 2010-11 | 105.0 |
| 2010-12 | 107.2 |
| 2011-01 | 107.5 |
| 2011-02 | 109.8 |
| 2011-03 | 111.1 |
| 2011-04 | 109.7 |
| 2011-05 | 108.2 |
| 2011-06 | 107.7 |
| 2011-07 | 105.5 |
| 2011-08 | 100.8 |
| 2011-09 | 98.4 |
| 2011-10 | 97.2 |
| 2011-11 | 94.9 |
| 2011-12 | 94.5 |
| 2012-01 | 92.5 |
| 2012-02 | 91.8 |
| 2012-03 | 93.2 |
| 2012-04 | 95.3 |
| 2012-05 | 91.4 |
| 2012-06 | 89.2 |
| 2012-07 | 88.7 |
| 2012-08 | 86.6 |
| 2012-09 | 86.2 |
| 2012-10 | 85.0 |
| 2012-11 | 84.3 |
| 2012-12 | 86.1 |
| 2013-01 | 87.2 |
| 2013-02 | 85.8 |
| 2013-03 | 82.8 |
| 2013-04 | 81.9 |
| 2013-05 | 83.4 |
| 2013-06 | 84.9 |
| 2013-07 | 85.3 |
| 2013-08 | 87.4 |
| 2013-09 | 91.3 |
| 2013-10 | 90.8 |
| 2013-11 | 91.6 |
| 2013-12 | 90.0 |
| 2014-01 | 91.5 |
| 2014-02 | 91.3 |
| 2014-03 | 92.2 |
| 2014-04 | 92.6 |
| 2014-05 | 91.5 |
| 2014-06 | 91.5 |
| 2014-07 | 91.8 |
| 2014-08 | 90.7 |
| 2014-09 | 90.1 |
| 2014-10 | 90.5 |
| 2014-11 | 90.3 |
| 2014-12 | 90.4 |
| 2015-01 | 90.2 |
| 2015-02 | 90.5 |
| 2015-03 | 91.4 |
| 2015-04 | 93.1 |
| 2015-05 | 94.8 |
| 2015-06 | 96.3 |
| 2015-07 | 97.0 |
| 2015-08 | 98.2 |
| 2015-09 | 97.1 |
| 2015-10 | 99.4 |
| 2015-11 | 99.0 |
| 2015-12 | 96.7 |
| 2016-01 | 99.8 |
| 2016-02 | 99.6 |
| 2016-03 | 99.3 |
| 2016-04 | 98.0 |
| 2016-05 | 100.6 |
| 2016-06 | 98.8 |
| 2016-07 | 100.1 |
| 2016-08 | 99.8 |
| 2016-09 | 100.6 |
| 2016-10 | 100.5 |
| 2016-11 | 100.6 |
| 2016-12 | 103.6 |
| 2017-01 | 101.6 |
| 2017-02 | 102.7 |
| 2017-03 | 103.3 |
| 2017-04 | 103.1 |
| 2017-05 | 102.7 |
| 2017-06 | 103.5 |
| 2017-07 | 103.8 |
| 2017-08 | 106.0 |
| 2017-09 | 106.9 |
| 2017-10 | 107.1 |
| 2017-11 | 107.8 |
| 2017-12 | 109.2 |
| 2018-01 | 108.0 |
| 2018-02 | 106.7 |
| 2018-03 | 106.9 |
| 2018-04 | 105.9 |
| 2018-05 | 104.3 |
| 2018-06 | 104.9 |
| 2018-07 | 104.4 |
| 2018-08 | 103.6 |
| 2018-09 | 104.5 |
| 2018-10 | 103.1 |
| 2018-11 | 103.7 |
| 2018-12 | 101.9 |
| 2019-01 | 103.4 |
| 2019-02 | 103.3 |
| 2019-03 | 104.7 |
| 2019-04 | 105.5 |
| 2019-05 | 106.0 |
| 2019-06 | 106.4 |
| 2019-07 | 105.1 |
| 2019-08 | 104.7 |
| 2019-09 | 105.8 |
| 2019-10 | 105.7 |
| 2019-11 | 106.2 |
| 2019-12 | 106.7 |
| 2020-01 | 106.3 |
| 2020-02 | 106.0 |
| 2020-03 | 91.7 |
| 2020-04 | 55.0 |
graphiqueBusiness climate composite indicator
- Source: INSEE.
Further severe fall in the balances on expectations of business managers
The balances of opinion on expected activity, on expected demand and on general outlook have dramatically fallen again. All three balances have reached their lowest level since the start of the series. The balance on past activity has fallen back and moved below its long-term average.
Concerning employment, the balance on expected employment has fallen and reached a level unseen since the beginning of the series in 1988. That on past employment has slipped back too, to a level not reached since July 2009.
The balances on investments have sharply fallen back: that on past investment has moved below its average, that on expected investments has plummeted and reached its lowest level since the start of the indicator (2005).
The balances on operating resulting have deteriorated too and both reached an unprecedented low level since the start of the survey, especially that on expected result.
In April, the business managers are noticeably more numerous than in January to report difficulties of supply. The main difficulty has differed from the usual difficulties related to labour or equipment: the COVID-19 pandemic has been mainly reported (cf. focus in Economic outlook on 23 April 2020).
tableauEconomic outlook in the services sector
| Average* | Jan. 2020 | Feb. 2020 | Mar. 2020 | Apr. 2020 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Composite indicator | 100 | 106 | 106 | 92 | 55 |
| General outlook | -7 | 1 | 0 | -15 | -77 |
| Past activity | 2 | 5 | 11 | 5 | -7 |
| Expected activity | 2 | 8 | 5 | -10 | -41 |
| Expected demand | 0 | 5 | 3 | -12 | -41 |
| Past selling prices | -4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -4 |
| Expected selling prices | -3 | 0 | 1 | -4 | -13 |
| Past employment | 3 | 3 | 6 | -5 | -18 |
| except temporary work agencies | 1 | 6 | 2 | -3 | -12 |
| Expected employment | 3 | 6 | 8 | -6 | -35 |
| except temporary work agencies | 0 | 2 | 4 | -3 | -27 |
| Investments | |||||
| Past investments | 2 | 3 | 6 | 7 | -4 |
| Expected investments | 2 | 7 | 4 | -1 | -23 |
| Operating balance result | |||||
| Past result | -2 | -1 | -29 | ||
| Expected result | -2 | -3 | -77 | ||
| Cash position | -11 | -5 | -34 | ||
| Difficulties of supply and demand | |||||
| difficulties of supply and demand | 10 | 8 | 18 | ||
| difficulties of supply only | 23 | 24 | 35 | ||
| difficulties of demand only | 30 | 19 | 16 | ||
| Difficulties in recruitment | 29 | 40 | 31 |
- * Average since 1989 for the composite indicator and since 1988 for the balances of opinion
- Source: INSEE, monthly business survey in services.
The business climate indicator has dramatically fallen in all sub-sectors. It is at its lowest level since the beginning of the survey in all sub-sectors except in road freight transport where it stands at its level of June 2009. The steepest fall is in accommodation and food services activities.
tableauBusiness climate composite indicator and balances of opinion by sub-sector in services
| Aggregated classification (NA 2008) at level A21 | Mean* | Jan. 2020 | Feb. 2020 | Mar. 2020 | Apr. 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Road freight transport (8%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 104 | 105 | 92 | 77 |
| Past activity | -5 | -5 | 0 | -6 | -20 |
| Expected activity | -7 | 0 | 2 | -23 | -49 |
| Expected demand | -9 | -3 | 2 | -30 | -50 |
| Past employment | -5 | 2 | 7 | -3 | -17 |
| Expected employment | -7 | -3 | -9 | -11 | -33 |
| General outlook | -19 | -10 | -6 | -30 | -84 |
| Accommodation and food service activities (11%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 108 | 107 | 88 | 40 |
| Past activity | -6 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -35 |
| Expected activity | -7 | 2 | -1 | -20 | -63 |
| Expected demand | -9 | 3 | -1 | -21 | -60 |
| Past employment | -4 | -1 | -9 | -10 | -27 |
| Expected employment | -5 | -9 | -8 | -8 | -41 |
| General outlook | -13 | -8 | -2 | -32 | -100 |
| Information and communication (26%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 103 | 103 | 98 | 71 |
| Past activity | 8 | 5 | 20 | 21 | 16 |
| Expected activity | 9 | 10 | 9 | 2 | -28 |
| Expected demand | 10 | 14 | 2 | 3 | -30 |
| Past employment | 6 | 5 | 7 | -10 | -10 |
| Expected employment | 11 | 7 | 10 | 7 | -15 |
| General outlook | 0 | 8 | 4 | -3 | -64 |
| Real estate activities (11%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 103 | 101 | 91 | 59 |
| Past activity | 7 | 8 | 8 | 10 | -4 |
| Expected activity | 7 | 8 | 5 | -4 | -24 |
| Expected demand | 2 | 6 | 5 | -10 | -24 |
| Past employment | 3 | 3 | 4 | -6 | -9 |
| Expected employment | 3 | -1 | 8 | -3 | -16 |
| General outlook | -3 | -3 | -7 | -12 | -56 |
| Professionnel, scientific and technical activities (24%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 109 | 108 | 95 | 57 |
| Past activity | -1 | 7 | 9 | -1 | -9 |
| Expected activity | -2 | 6 | 2 | -10 | -41 |
| Expected demand | -5 | -1 | 4 | -12 | -41 |
| Past employment | 1 | 12 | 4 | 3 | -8 |
| Expected employment | 1 | 7 | 10 | 5 | -22 |
| General outlook | -8 | 4 | 1 | -14 | -78 |
| Administrative and support service activities (18%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 104 | 105 | 83 | 49 |
| Past activity | 6 | 1 | 11 | -5 | -22 |
| Expected activity | 5 | 11 | 8 | -20 | -53 |
| Expected demand | 3 | 7 | 5 | -21 | -51 |
| Past employment | 9 | 3 | 13 | -6 | -26 |
| Expected employment | 7 | 13 | 17 | -13 | -50 |
| General outlook | -3 | 3 | 8 | -15 | -82 |
- The figures in parentheses indicate the weights used to aggregate the sub-sector balances of opinion.
- *Composite indicator: average since 1989 (2006 for road transport); balances of opinion: average since 1988 (2006 for road transport)
- Source: INSEE, monthly business survey in services.
For further information
A balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentage of “increase” responses and the percentage of “decrease” responses.
Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of the web page of this publication.
Next issue: 26 May 2020 at 8:45 am
Documentation
Abbreviated methodology (pdf,185 Ko)
Pour en savoir plus
A balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentage of “increase” responses and the percentage of “decrease” responses.
Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of the web page of this publication.
Next issue: 26 May 2020 at 8:45 am
Time series : Economic outlook surveys – Services
