Informations rapides
25 February 2020
2020- n° 45
In February 2020, both the French business climate and the employment climate are stable Business climate indicator and turning point indicator - February 2020

In February 2020, the business climate is stable. At 105, the composite indicator, compiled from the answers of business managers in the main market sectors, is still above its long-term mean (100). Compared to January, the business climate has gained one point in retail trade and in services. It is stable in building construction and in manufacturing. In all sectors, the business climate stands above its long-term average.

Informations rapides
No 45
Paru le :Paru le25/02/2020
Prochaine parution le : 19/09/2025 at 08:45 - September 2025

The French business climate is stable, above its long-term average

In February 2020, the business climate is stable. At 105, the composite indicator, compiled from the answers of business managers in the main market sectors, is still above its long-term mean (100). Compared to January, the business climate has gained one point in retail trade and in services. It is stable in building construction and in manufacturing. In all sectors, the business climate stands above its long-term average.

French business climate composite indicator

French business climate composite indicator
French business climate composite indicator
1998-01 108.7
1998-02 110.0
1998-03 112.9
1998-04 110.9
1998-05 112.0
1998-06 113.2
1998-07 112.4
1998-08 111.6
1998-09 109.5
1998-10 107.0
1998-11 105.1
1998-12 102.3
1999-01 102.2
1999-02 102.2
1999-03 100.6
1999-04 101.4
1999-05 103.1
1999-06 102.5
1999-07 107.6
1999-08 110.5
1999-09 113.6
1999-10 115.8
1999-11 117.2
1999-12 118.6
2000-01 115.5
2000-02 116.0
2000-03 116.8
2000-04 116.6
2000-05 115.9
2000-06 117.5
2000-07 117.1
2000-08 117.7
2000-09 117.9
2000-10 116.5
2000-11 114.2
2000-12 113.7
2001-01 112.7
2001-02 112.6
2001-03 112.6
2001-04 107.3
2001-05 105.1
2001-06 104.1
2001-07 101.8
2001-08 100.4
2001-09 98.7
2001-10 93.8
2001-11 93.9
2001-12 94.5
2002-01 95.7
2002-02 96.4
2002-03 98.4
2002-04 101.6
2002-05 102.9
2002-06 101.9
2002-07 99.0
2002-08 98.3
2002-09 97.2
2002-10 95.4
2002-11 96.9
2002-12 99.5
2003-01 95.9
2003-02 94.9
2003-03 89.6
2003-04 87.2
2003-05 91.9
2003-06 92.0
2003-07 94.3
2003-08 95.3
2003-09 95.3
2003-10 96.3
2003-11 100.4
2003-12 101.7
2004-01 105.7
2004-02 104.8
2004-03 104.9
2004-04 105.8
2004-05 105.7
2004-06 105.2
2004-07 106.6
2004-08 106.7
2004-09 106.5
2004-10 107.6
2004-11 105.2
2004-12 106.4
2005-01 106.0
2005-02 106.2
2005-03 105.8
2005-04 105.0
2005-05 102.8
2005-06 103.9
2005-07 104.5
2005-08 104.3
2005-09 103.7
2005-10 106.5
2005-11 106.5
2005-12 107.8
2006-01 109.1
2006-02 107.2
2006-03 107.3
2006-04 108.1
2006-05 109.8
2006-06 109.2
2006-07 111.0
2006-08 111.2
2006-09 111.7
2006-10 111.6
2006-11 112.5
2006-12 110.9
2007-01 110.9
2007-02 112.5
2007-03 113.0
2007-04 113.7
2007-05 114.1
2007-06 115.2
2007-07 114.5
2007-08 113.2
2007-09 112.4
2007-10 111.6
2007-11 111.8
2007-12 111.4
2008-01 110.3
2008-02 108.8
2008-03 108.5
2008-04 105.7
2008-05 102.9
2008-06 99.9
2008-07 95.6
2008-08 94.2
2008-09 91.5
2008-10 82.5
2008-11 79.1
2008-12 75.3
2009-01 73.4
2009-02 71.0
2009-03 67.9
2009-04 68.8
2009-05 72.5
2009-06 75.4
2009-07 77.5
2009-08 81.4
2009-09 85.0
2009-10 87.6
2009-11 89.9
2009-12 90.5
2010-01 92.6
2010-02 93.1
2010-03 92.5
2010-04 96.8
2010-05 97.9
2010-06 97.5
2010-07 99.8
2010-08 102.1
2010-09 103.6
2010-10 104.7
2010-11 105.0
2010-12 106.7
2011-01 107.7
2011-02 108.5
2011-03 109.4
2011-04 109.2
2011-05 108.1
2011-06 108.4
2011-07 106.2
2011-08 100.9
2011-09 97.7
2011-10 96.3
2011-11 94.3
2011-12 92.9
2012-01 92.1
2012-02 91.9
2012-03 94.4
2012-04 95.1
2012-05 91.7
2012-06 90.5
2012-07 88.3
2012-08 87.8
2012-09 86.2
2012-10 84.1
2012-11 86.0
2012-12 86.7
2013-01 86.6
2013-02 86.5
2013-03 84.6
2013-04 83.0
2013-05 84.2
2013-06 85.3
2013-07 87.2
2013-08 90.4
2013-09 93.7
2013-10 93.3
2013-11 92.6
2013-12 92.4
2014-01 93.1
2014-02 93.0
2014-03 94.3
2014-04 94.2
2014-05 93.9
2014-06 92.7
2014-07 92.1
2014-08 90.9
2014-09 90.2
2014-10 90.2
2014-11 92.1
2014-12 92.3
2015-01 92.6
2015-02 93.4
2015-03 94.6
2015-04 95.6
2015-05 96.6
2015-06 97.5
2015-07 97.9
2015-08 99.5
2015-09 99.3
2015-10 100.3
2015-11 100.4
2015-12 98.9
2016-01 100.8
2016-02 99.9
2016-03 100.0
2016-04 99.9
2016-05 101.8
2016-06 100.1
2016-07 100.8
2016-08 100.4
2016-09 100.8
2016-10 101.1
2016-11 101.4
2016-12 103.7
2017-01 103.3
2017-02 103.9
2017-03 103.9
2017-04 104.1
2017-05 105.0
2017-06 106.6
2017-07 107.4
2017-08 108.5
2017-09 109.1
2017-10 109.0
2017-11 110.3
2017-12 111.4
2018-01 110.7
2018-02 109.7
2018-03 109.3
2018-04 108.5
2018-05 106.6
2018-06 106.5
2018-07 105.8
2018-08 105.1
2018-09 105.0
2018-10 103.8
2018-11 104.4
2018-12 101.5
2019-01 102.0
2019-02 103.1
2019-03 104.6
2019-04 105.3
2019-05 106.0
2019-06 106.2
2019-07 105.1
2019-08 105.3
2019-09 106.2
2019-10 105.4
2019-11 105.8
2019-12 105.0
2020-01 104.6
2020-02 105.4

French business climate composite indicator

  • Source: INSEE.

Business and employment climates

Business and employment climates
Oct. 19 Nov. 19 Dec. 19 Jan. 20 Feb. 20
Business climates
France 105 106 105 105 105
Manufacturing 99 102 98 102 102
Building construction 112 111 111 111 111
Services 106 106 107 106 107
Retail trade 105 106 108 104 105
Wholesale trade 106 104
Employment climate
Employment 106 107 107 105 105
  • Source: INSEE, Business tendency surveys

The employment climate is also stable

In February 2020, the employment climate is stable. At 105, it remains well above its long-term average. The improvement in the balance of opinion on expected employment in services except temporary work agencies is offset, in particular, by the decline in the balance on recent employment in the same sector.

French employment climate composite indicator

French employment climate composite indicator
French employment climate composite indicator
1998-01 101.9
1998-02 103.7
1998-03 105.6
1998-04 107.3
1998-05 107.9
1998-06 109.0
1998-07 110.3
1998-08 108.5
1998-09 106.7
1998-10 105.7
1998-11 105.3
1998-12 104.7
1999-01 103.9
1999-02 105.4
1999-03 106.7
1999-04 108.2
1999-05 108.4
1999-06 109.0
1999-07 109.7
1999-08 112.3
1999-09 114.9
1999-10 117.3
1999-11 118.2
1999-12 118.8
2000-01 119.2
2000-02 117.1
2000-03 115.0
2000-04 113.0
2000-05 116.9
2000-06 120.7
2000-07 117.4
2000-08 119.3
2000-09 120.3
2000-10 120.5
2000-11 122.7
2000-12 121.1
2001-01 118.9
2001-02 119.8
2001-03 118.7
2001-04 117.6
2001-05 113.4
2001-06 111.4
2001-07 107.4
2001-08 107.9
2001-09 107.7
2001-10 108.7
2001-11 102.8
2001-12 105.1
2002-01 102.6
2002-02 100.6
2002-03 102.4
2002-04 107.0
2002-05 104.3
2002-06 102.7
2002-07 103.6
2002-08 101.2
2002-09 98.0
2002-10 94.1
2002-11 97.7
2002-12 96.4
2003-01 97.5
2003-02 95.6
2003-03 91.7
2003-04 90.3
2003-05 89.4
2003-06 92.2
2003-07 93.2
2003-08 93.9
2003-09 94.1
2003-10 94.7
2003-11 93.8
2003-12 96.9
2004-01 98.5
2004-02 97.1
2004-03 100.7
2004-04 101.1
2004-05 104.1
2004-06 100.9
2004-07 101.8
2004-08 101.8
2004-09 101.4
2004-10 103.0
2004-11 103.2
2004-12 102.0
2005-01 102.2
2005-02 102.0
2005-03 104.9
2005-04 102.2
2005-05 102.8
2005-06 102.2
2005-07 102.7
2005-08 103.4
2005-09 103.8
2005-10 104.1
2005-11 103.7
2005-12 103.0
2006-01 104.1
2006-02 104.0
2006-03 104.6
2006-04 107.3
2006-05 108.5
2006-06 110.7
2006-07 110.3
2006-08 109.5
2006-09 108.3
2006-10 109.3
2006-11 111.1
2006-12 111.8
2007-01 109.8
2007-02 111.9
2007-03 111.6
2007-04 112.2
2007-05 114.1
2007-06 113.6
2007-07 111.7
2007-08 113.2
2007-09 114.0
2007-10 112.1
2007-11 113.8
2007-12 115.5
2008-01 114.7
2008-02 114.8
2008-03 113.0
2008-04 113.3
2008-05 108.6
2008-06 104.7
2008-07 105.7
2008-08 100.5
2008-09 99.2
2008-10 94.3
2008-11 86.8
2008-12 81.4
2009-01 78.6
2009-02 77.0
2009-03 70.7
2009-04 71.3
2009-05 70.3
2009-06 71.6
2009-07 75.7
2009-08 80.9
2009-09 80.0
2009-10 82.3
2009-11 84.7
2009-12 87.3
2010-01 88.8
2010-02 89.3
2010-03 92.1
2010-04 94.5
2010-05 96.5
2010-06 97.7
2010-07 98.0
2010-08 98.5
2010-09 100.1
2010-10 103.2
2010-11 104.3
2010-12 105.2
2011-01 103.4
2011-02 110.3
2011-03 109.1
2011-04 109.3
2011-05 111.1
2011-06 111.2
2011-07 109.5
2011-08 104.9
2011-09 103.1
2011-10 99.8
2011-11 100.0
2011-12 98.1
2012-01 96.7
2012-02 96.4
2012-03 98.0
2012-04 96.7
2012-05 93.8
2012-06 92.5
2012-07 90.9
2012-08 92.2
2012-09 90.0
2012-10 90.2
2012-11 88.6
2012-12 88.2
2013-01 91.1
2013-02 87.5
2013-03 86.6
2013-04 84.7
2013-05 84.4
2013-06 87.3
2013-07 88.5
2013-08 89.2
2013-09 90.7
2013-10 93.3
2013-11 91.8
2013-12 93.8
2014-01 94.1
2014-02 93.4
2014-03 94.3
2014-04 97.3
2014-05 96.1
2014-06 94.4
2014-07 94.8
2014-08 93.4
2014-09 93.6
2014-10 93.5
2014-11 93.3
2014-12 93.8
2015-01 92.8
2015-02 95.1
2015-03 94.3
2015-04 96.7
2015-05 96.8
2015-06 98.7
2015-07 99.3
2015-08 100.1
2015-09 99.8
2015-10 100.2
2015-11 101.3
2015-12 100.5
2016-01 101.7
2016-02 100.3
2016-03 99.1
2016-04 100.0
2016-05 101.9
2016-06 101.1
2016-07 104.2
2016-08 103.0
2016-09 104.7
2016-10 104.9
2016-11 105.0
2016-12 106.7
2017-01 105.4
2017-02 104.3
2017-03 107.4
2017-04 106.5
2017-05 107.2
2017-06 107.9
2017-07 107.3
2017-08 105.6
2017-09 106.9
2017-10 108.7
2017-11 108.4
2017-12 109.0
2018-01 109.5
2018-02 110.1
2018-03 109.7
2018-04 108.9
2018-05 109.1
2018-06 110.0
2018-07 108.3
2018-08 107.6
2018-09 107.3
2018-10 107.2
2018-11 105.2
2018-12 104.6
2019-01 105.1
2019-02 106.9
2019-03 107.0
2019-04 106.7
2019-05 104.5
2019-06 106.1
2019-07 106.1
2019-08 105.3
2019-09 105.9
2019-10 105.9
2019-11 106.7
2019-12 107.2
2020-01 104.7
2020-02 105.3

French employment climate composite indicator

  • Source: INSEE.

The turning-point indicator points out a favourable short-term economic outlook

The turning-point indicator for the French economy remains in the area indicating a favourable short-term economic outlook.

Turning point indicators

Turning point indicators
Oct. 19 Nov. 19 Dec. 19 Jan. 20 Feb. 20
France 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.8
Manufacturing -0.1 0.6 0.3 0.7 0.9
Building construction 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9
Services 0.6 0.6 1.0 0.9 0.8
Wholesale trade 0.8 0.9 -
  • Source: INSEE, Business tendency surveys

Turning-point indicator

Turning-point indicator
Turning-point indicator
2010-01 0.58
2010-02 0.5
2010-03 0.6
2010-04 0.82
2010-05 0.92
2010-06 0.8
2010-07 0.86
2010-08 0.99
2010-09 0.96
2010-10 0.98
2010-11 0.92
2010-12 0.99
2011-01 0.99
2011-02 0.99
2011-03 0.96
2011-04 0.88
2011-05 0.4
2011-06 0.63
2011-07 0.57
2011-08 -0.95
2011-09 -1.0
2011-10 -0.78
2011-11 -0.69
2011-12 -0.55
2012-01 -0.44
2012-02 -0.85
2012-03 0.64
2012-04 0.2
2012-05 -0.73
2012-06 -0.9
2012-07 -0.77
2012-08 -0.58
2012-09 -0.47
2012-10 -0.98
2012-11 -0.8
2012-12 -0.62
2013-01 -0.53
2013-02 -0.82
2013-03 -1.0
2013-04 -0.98
2013-05 -0.04
2013-06 0.41
2013-07 0.85
2013-08 0.99
2013-09 0.99
2013-10 0.81
2013-11 0.07
2013-12 0.38
2014-01 0.86
2014-02 0.75
2014-03 0.98
2014-04 0.63
2014-05 0.41
2014-06 0.29
2014-07 0.36
2014-08 0.33
2014-09 0.36
2014-10 -0.13
2014-11 0.14
2014-12 0.13
2015-01 0.01
2015-02 0.0
2015-03 0.4
2015-04 0.64
2015-05 0.67
2015-06 0.61
2015-07 0.74
2015-08 0.86
2015-09 0.71
2015-10 0.7
2015-11 0.64
2015-12 0.6
2016-01 0.88
2016-02 0.8
2016-03 0.71
2016-04 0.68
2016-05 0.73
2016-06 0.15
2016-07 0.39
2016-08 0.42
2016-09 0.86
2016-10 0.88
2016-11 0.79
2016-12 0.82
2017-01 0.73
2017-02 0.93
2017-03 0.4
2017-04 0.71
2017-05 0.63
2017-06 0.91
2017-07 0.88
2017-08 0.96
2017-09 0.94
2017-10 0.86
2017-11 0.83
2017-12 0.99
2018-01 0.92
2018-02 0.5
2018-03 0.66
2018-04 0.64
2018-05 0.6
2018-06 0.88
2018-07 0.75
2018-08 0.7
2018-09 0.73
2018-10 0.63
2018-11 0.76
2018-12 0.65
2019-01 0.87
2019-02 0.81
2019-03 0.93
2019-04 0.41
2019-05 0.97
2019-06 0.87
2019-07 0.8
2019-08 0.81
2019-09 0.89
2019-10 0.74
2019-11 0.83
2019-12 0.9
2020-01 0.79
2020-02 0.8

Turning-point indicator

  • Note: close to +1 (resp. –1), the indicator shows a favourable business climate (resp. unfavourable). The uncertainty area is between –0.3 and +0.3.
  • Source: INSEE.

Revisions

Compared to their first estimates in January, the composite business climate indicator in manufacturing has been revised upwards by two points and that of French business climate has been revised upwards by one point. Conversely, the composite climate indicator in services has been revised downwards by one point. These revisions result mainly from the integration of late responses from companies. The other climate indicators are unchanged.

For further information

The business climate and turning point indicators summarise the information provided by the surveys in manufacturing, services, trade (retail and wholesale), and construction. The business climate is built from 26 balances of opinion from these surveys while the turning point indicator is built from 14 balances of opinion from surveys in manufacturing, services and construction. The employment indicator is based on the 10 balances of employment, past and expected, from the surveys in manufacturing, services, retail trade and construction.

The balances of opinion concerning employment in services that are used in the employment climate distinguish the services excluding temporary work employment sector from temporary work agencies. For the latter, the balances on past and expected workforce size are not weighted, unlike the other sectors.

Next issue: 26 March 2020 at 08:45 am

Documentation

Pour en savoir plus

The business climate and turning point indicators summarise the information provided by the surveys in manufacturing, services, trade (retail and wholesale), and construction. The business climate is built from 26 balances of opinion from these surveys while the turning point indicator is built from 14 balances of opinion from surveys in manufacturing, services and construction. The employment indicator is based on the 10 balances of employment, past and expected, from the surveys in manufacturing, services, retail trade and construction.

The balances of opinion concerning employment in services that are used in the employment climate distinguish the services excluding temporary work employment sector from temporary work agencies. For the latter, the balances on past and expected workforce size are not weighted, unlike the other sectors.

Next issue: 26 March 2020 at 08:45 am

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