25 February 2020
2020- n° 43In February 2020, the business climate has improved a little in services Monthly survey of services - February 2020
According to business managers surveyed in February 2020, the business climate has improved a little in services. The business climate composite indicator has risen by one point. At 107, it stands well above its long-term average (100).
Otherwise, the indicator of January 2020 has been revised downwards by one point because of late businesses’ answers that have been taken into account.
- Sharp increase in the balance of opinion on past activity
- In road freight transport, the business climate has slightly bounced back
- In accommodation and food services, the business climate has improved again
- The climate is stable in information-communication
- In real estate activities, the climate is stable, above its average
- In professional, scientific and technical activities, the business climate remains very favourable
- The climate has sharply improved in administrative and support services
- For further information
According to business managers surveyed in February 2020, the business climate has improved a little in services. The business climate composite indicator has risen by one point. At 107, it stands well above its long-term average (100).
Otherwise, the indicator of January 2020 has been revised downwards by one point because of late businesses’ answers that have been taken into account.
tableauBusiness climate composite indicator
| Business climate composite indicator | |
|---|---|
| 1998-01 | 104.4 |
| 1998-02 | 105.6 |
| 1998-03 | 106.8 |
| 1998-04 | 108.0 |
| 1998-05 | 107.7 |
| 1998-06 | 107.3 |
| 1998-07 | 106.9 |
| 1998-08 | 106.0 |
| 1998-09 | 105.2 |
| 1998-10 | 104.3 |
| 1998-11 | 102.5 |
| 1998-12 | 100.6 |
| 1999-01 | 98.7 |
| 1999-02 | 99.6 |
| 1999-03 | 100.5 |
| 1999-04 | 101.4 |
| 1999-05 | 102.9 |
| 1999-06 | 104.4 |
| 1999-07 | 106.0 |
| 1999-08 | 108.7 |
| 1999-09 | 111.5 |
| 1999-10 | 114.2 |
| 1999-11 | 112.7 |
| 1999-12 | 111.2 |
| 2000-01 | 109.6 |
| 2000-02 | 109.0 |
| 2000-03 | 108.5 |
| 2000-04 | 107.9 |
| 2000-05 | 111.3 |
| 2000-06 | 114.7 |
| 2000-07 | 113.1 |
| 2000-08 | 115.4 |
| 2000-09 | 116.9 |
| 2000-10 | 116.1 |
| 2000-11 | 115.0 |
| 2000-12 | 115.6 |
| 2001-01 | 114.7 |
| 2001-02 | 113.3 |
| 2001-03 | 113.6 |
| 2001-04 | 108.9 |
| 2001-05 | 106.0 |
| 2001-06 | 105.8 |
| 2001-07 | 103.3 |
| 2001-08 | 102.5 |
| 2001-09 | 101.1 |
| 2001-10 | 95.8 |
| 2001-11 | 95.1 |
| 2001-12 | 95.5 |
| 2002-01 | 96.5 |
| 2002-02 | 97.8 |
| 2002-03 | 102.0 |
| 2002-04 | 104.4 |
| 2002-05 | 105.4 |
| 2002-06 | 102.5 |
| 2002-07 | 100.7 |
| 2002-08 | 99.1 |
| 2002-09 | 97.0 |
| 2002-10 | 97.8 |
| 2002-11 | 99.4 |
| 2002-12 | 100.4 |
| 2003-01 | 96.7 |
| 2003-02 | 95.2 |
| 2003-03 | 89.9 |
| 2003-04 | 86.9 |
| 2003-05 | 91.4 |
| 2003-06 | 93.0 |
| 2003-07 | 96.5 |
| 2003-08 | 98.0 |
| 2003-09 | 99.1 |
| 2003-10 | 100.0 |
| 2003-11 | 101.5 |
| 2003-12 | 104.1 |
| 2004-01 | 106.5 |
| 2004-02 | 106.5 |
| 2004-03 | 106.3 |
| 2004-04 | 106.0 |
| 2004-05 | 106.7 |
| 2004-06 | 105.4 |
| 2004-07 | 106.8 |
| 2004-08 | 106.2 |
| 2004-09 | 105.4 |
| 2004-10 | 106.8 |
| 2004-11 | 106.2 |
| 2004-12 | 109.5 |
| 2005-01 | 106.8 |
| 2005-02 | 106.5 |
| 2005-03 | 108.8 |
| 2005-04 | 108.5 |
| 2005-05 | 106.3 |
| 2005-06 | 108.9 |
| 2005-07 | 108.2 |
| 2005-08 | 107.9 |
| 2005-09 | 107.5 |
| 2005-10 | 109.0 |
| 2005-11 | 106.8 |
| 2005-12 | 107.1 |
| 2006-01 | 109.3 |
| 2006-02 | 106.6 |
| 2006-03 | 108.1 |
| 2006-04 | 108.4 |
| 2006-05 | 111.3 |
| 2006-06 | 109.9 |
| 2006-07 | 111.2 |
| 2006-08 | 111.3 |
| 2006-09 | 111.5 |
| 2006-10 | 111.8 |
| 2006-11 | 114.2 |
| 2006-12 | 112.5 |
| 2007-01 | 111.8 |
| 2007-02 | 113.3 |
| 2007-03 | 114.5 |
| 2007-04 | 114.2 |
| 2007-05 | 114.1 |
| 2007-06 | 113.7 |
| 2007-07 | 114.2 |
| 2007-08 | 113.3 |
| 2007-09 | 112.4 |
| 2007-10 | 111.0 |
| 2007-11 | 111.1 |
| 2007-12 | 109.9 |
| 2008-01 | 111.3 |
| 2008-02 | 109.4 |
| 2008-03 | 109.5 |
| 2008-04 | 107.7 |
| 2008-05 | 104.9 |
| 2008-06 | 101.4 |
| 2008-07 | 96.5 |
| 2008-08 | 94.9 |
| 2008-09 | 92.6 |
| 2008-10 | 83.0 |
| 2008-11 | 78.6 |
| 2008-12 | 75.0 |
| 2009-01 | 72.0 |
| 2009-02 | 70.7 |
| 2009-03 | 64.9 |
| 2009-04 | 65.0 |
| 2009-05 | 69.5 |
| 2009-06 | 74.7 |
| 2009-07 | 78.9 |
| 2009-08 | 81.9 |
| 2009-09 | 85.4 |
| 2009-10 | 89.0 |
| 2009-11 | 90.5 |
| 2009-12 | 91.1 |
| 2010-01 | 92.8 |
| 2010-02 | 93.0 |
| 2010-03 | 93.2 |
| 2010-04 | 96.8 |
| 2010-05 | 98.7 |
| 2010-06 | 97.7 |
| 2010-07 | 98.6 |
| 2010-08 | 100.3 |
| 2010-09 | 101.4 |
| 2010-10 | 102.8 |
| 2010-11 | 105.0 |
| 2010-12 | 107.2 |
| 2011-01 | 107.5 |
| 2011-02 | 110.0 |
| 2011-03 | 111.3 |
| 2011-04 | 109.8 |
| 2011-05 | 108.3 |
| 2011-06 | 107.7 |
| 2011-07 | 105.5 |
| 2011-08 | 100.5 |
| 2011-09 | 98.0 |
| 2011-10 | 96.8 |
| 2011-11 | 94.4 |
| 2011-12 | 94.0 |
| 2012-01 | 91.9 |
| 2012-02 | 91.2 |
| 2012-03 | 92.7 |
| 2012-04 | 94.9 |
| 2012-05 | 90.8 |
| 2012-06 | 88.5 |
| 2012-07 | 88.0 |
| 2012-08 | 85.8 |
| 2012-09 | 85.4 |
| 2012-10 | 84.1 |
| 2012-11 | 83.4 |
| 2012-12 | 85.2 |
| 2013-01 | 86.4 |
| 2013-02 | 85.1 |
| 2013-03 | 81.9 |
| 2013-04 | 80.9 |
| 2013-05 | 82.5 |
| 2013-06 | 84.0 |
| 2013-07 | 84.5 |
| 2013-08 | 86.6 |
| 2013-09 | 90.7 |
| 2013-10 | 90.2 |
| 2013-11 | 91.0 |
| 2013-12 | 89.4 |
| 2014-01 | 90.9 |
| 2014-02 | 90.7 |
| 2014-03 | 91.7 |
| 2014-04 | 92.1 |
| 2014-05 | 90.9 |
| 2014-06 | 90.9 |
| 2014-07 | 91.2 |
| 2014-08 | 90.1 |
| 2014-09 | 89.5 |
| 2014-10 | 89.8 |
| 2014-11 | 89.7 |
| 2014-12 | 89.8 |
| 2015-01 | 89.5 |
| 2015-02 | 89.9 |
| 2015-03 | 90.8 |
| 2015-04 | 92.6 |
| 2015-05 | 94.3 |
| 2015-06 | 95.9 |
| 2015-07 | 96.7 |
| 2015-08 | 97.9 |
| 2015-09 | 96.8 |
| 2015-10 | 99.1 |
| 2015-11 | 98.7 |
| 2015-12 | 96.3 |
| 2016-01 | 99.5 |
| 2016-02 | 99.4 |
| 2016-03 | 99.0 |
| 2016-04 | 97.7 |
| 2016-05 | 100.4 |
| 2016-06 | 98.6 |
| 2016-07 | 99.9 |
| 2016-08 | 99.5 |
| 2016-09 | 100.4 |
| 2016-10 | 100.3 |
| 2016-11 | 100.4 |
| 2016-12 | 103.6 |
| 2017-01 | 101.4 |
| 2017-02 | 102.6 |
| 2017-03 | 103.2 |
| 2017-04 | 103.0 |
| 2017-05 | 102.6 |
| 2017-06 | 103.4 |
| 2017-07 | 103.8 |
| 2017-08 | 106.1 |
| 2017-09 | 106.9 |
| 2017-10 | 107.1 |
| 2017-11 | 107.8 |
| 2017-12 | 109.4 |
| 2018-01 | 108.1 |
| 2018-02 | 106.7 |
| 2018-03 | 107.0 |
| 2018-04 | 106.0 |
| 2018-05 | 104.3 |
| 2018-06 | 104.9 |
| 2018-07 | 104.4 |
| 2018-08 | 103.6 |
| 2018-09 | 104.5 |
| 2018-10 | 103.0 |
| 2018-11 | 103.6 |
| 2018-12 | 101.8 |
| 2019-01 | 103.4 |
| 2019-02 | 103.2 |
| 2019-03 | 104.6 |
| 2019-04 | 105.5 |
| 2019-05 | 106.0 |
| 2019-06 | 106.4 |
| 2019-07 | 105.1 |
| 2019-08 | 104.7 |
| 2019-09 | 105.8 |
| 2019-10 | 105.8 |
| 2019-11 | 106.3 |
| 2019-12 | 106.8 |
| 2020-01 | 106.3 |
| 2020-02 | 106.8 |
graphiqueBusiness climate composite indicator
- Source: INSEE.
Sharp increase in the balance of opinion on past activity
The balance of opinion on past activity has strongly improved whereas those on expected activity and on expected demand have slightly decreased. The balance on the general outlook for the sector is stable. These four balances stand well above their long-term average.
Concerning employment, the balances on past employment and on expected employment have improved. However, that on past employment in services except temporary work agencies has deteriorated again. The balances on employment remain above their average level.
The balance on past investments has bounced back whereas that on expected investments has declined. Both remain above their average.
In February 2020, the turning-point indicator remains in the area indicating a favourable short-term economic situation.
tableauTurning-point indicator
| Turning-point indicator | |
|---|---|
| 2010-01 | 0.96 |
| 2010-02 | -0.14 |
| 2010-03 | 0.44 |
| 2010-04 | 0.86 |
| 2010-05 | 0.99 |
| 2010-06 | 0.83 |
| 2010-07 | 0.7 |
| 2010-08 | 0.97 |
| 2010-09 | 0.96 |
| 2010-10 | 0.97 |
| 2010-11 | 0.96 |
| 2010-12 | 0.99 |
| 2011-01 | 0.91 |
| 2011-02 | 0.98 |
| 2011-03 | 1.0 |
| 2011-04 | 0.9 |
| 2011-05 | 0.51 |
| 2011-06 | 0.69 |
| 2011-07 | 0.16 |
| 2011-08 | -0.84 |
| 2011-09 | -0.98 |
| 2011-10 | -0.87 |
| 2011-11 | -0.81 |
| 2011-12 | -0.69 |
| 2012-01 | -0.69 |
| 2012-02 | -0.86 |
| 2012-03 | -0.59 |
| 2012-04 | -0.53 |
| 2012-05 | -0.94 |
| 2012-06 | -0.99 |
| 2012-07 | -0.88 |
| 2012-08 | -0.92 |
| 2012-09 | -0.78 |
| 2012-10 | -0.88 |
| 2012-11 | -0.83 |
| 2012-12 | -0.59 |
| 2013-01 | -0.37 |
| 2013-02 | -0.92 |
| 2013-03 | -0.95 |
| 2013-04 | -0.99 |
| 2013-05 | -0.88 |
| 2013-06 | -0.64 |
| 2013-07 | -0.58 |
| 2013-08 | -0.48 |
| 2013-09 | 0.32 |
| 2013-10 | -0.34 |
| 2013-11 | -0.03 |
| 2013-12 | -0.54 |
| 2014-01 | -0.36 |
| 2014-02 | -0.3 |
| 2014-03 | -0.24 |
| 2014-04 | -0.2 |
| 2014-05 | -0.89 |
| 2014-06 | -0.78 |
| 2014-07 | -0.69 |
| 2014-08 | -0.85 |
| 2014-09 | -0.7 |
| 2014-10 | -0.6 |
| 2014-11 | -0.95 |
| 2014-12 | -0.9 |
| 2015-01 | -0.99 |
| 2015-02 | -0.92 |
| 2015-03 | -0.78 |
| 2015-04 | -0.66 |
| 2015-05 | 0.52 |
| 2015-06 | 0.6 |
| 2015-07 | 0.7 |
| 2015-08 | 0.72 |
| 2015-09 | -0.47 |
| 2015-10 | 0.76 |
| 2015-11 | 0.72 |
| 2015-12 | -0.47 |
| 2016-01 | 0.48 |
| 2016-02 | 0.57 |
| 2016-03 | 0.37 |
| 2016-04 | 0.2 |
| 2016-05 | 0.77 |
| 2016-06 | -0.49 |
| 2016-07 | 0.14 |
| 2016-08 | -0.08 |
| 2016-09 | 0.38 |
| 2016-10 | 0.54 |
| 2016-11 | 0.27 |
| 2016-12 | 0.91 |
| 2017-01 | 0.73 |
| 2017-02 | 0.78 |
| 2017-03 | 0.7 |
| 2017-04 | 0.67 |
| 2017-05 | 0.15 |
| 2017-06 | 0.9 |
| 2017-07 | 0.78 |
| 2017-08 | 0.75 |
| 2017-09 | 0.97 |
| 2017-10 | 0.99 |
| 2017-11 | 0.99 |
| 2017-12 | 0.99 |
| 2018-01 | 0.84 |
| 2018-02 | 0.41 |
| 2018-03 | 0.49 |
| 2018-04 | 0.42 |
| 2018-05 | 0.48 |
| 2018-06 | 0.85 |
| 2018-07 | 0.75 |
| 2018-08 | 0.25 |
| 2018-09 | 0.35 |
| 2018-10 | -0.71 |
| 2018-11 | -0.51 |
| 2018-12 | -0.48 |
| 2019-01 | -0.23 |
| 2019-02 | -0.36 |
| 2019-03 | 0.75 |
| 2019-04 | 0.8 |
| 2019-05 | 0.98 |
| 2019-06 | 0.9 |
| 2019-07 | 0.83 |
| 2019-08 | 0.75 |
| 2019-09 | 0.7 |
| 2019-10 | 0.65 |
| 2019-11 | 0.61 |
| 2019-12 | 0.95 |
| 2020-01 | 0.86 |
| 2020-02 | 0.79 |
graphiqueTurning-point indicator
- Note: close to 1 (respectively -1), this indicator indicates a favourable short-term economic situation (respectively unfavourable). The uncertainty area is between -0.3 and +0.3.
- Source: INSEE.
tableauEconomic outlook in the services sector
| Average* | Nov. 2019 | Dec. 2019 | Jan. 2020 | Feb. 2020 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Composite indicator | 100 | 106 | 107 | 106 | 107 |
| General outlook | -7 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Past activity | 2 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 12 |
| Expected activity | 2 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 6 |
| Expected demand | 0 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 4 |
| Past selling prices | -4 | -2 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| Expected selling prices | -3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Past employment | 3 | -1 | 1 | 3 | 6 |
| except temporary work agencies | 1 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 2 |
| Expected employment | 3 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 8 |
| except temporary work agencies | 0 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 4 |
| Investments | |||||
| Past investments | 2 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 6 |
| Expected investments | 2 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 4 |
- * Average since 1989 for the composite indicator and since 1988 for the balances of opinion
- Source: INSEE, monthly business survey in services.
The business climate indicator is above its long-term average in all sub-sectors. It has sharply increased in administrative and support services and more slightly in road freight transport and in accommodation and food services. It is stable in information-communication, in real estate activities and in professional, scientific and technical activities.
tableauBusiness climate composite indicator and balances of opinion by sub-sector in services
| Aggregated classification (NA 2008) at level A21 | Mean* | Nov. 2019 | Dec. 2019 | Jan. 2020 | Feb. 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Road transport (8%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 102 | 106 | 104 | 105 |
| Past activity | -5 | -2 | -4 | -5 | 0 |
| Expected activity | -6 | -5 | 5 | 0 | 1 |
| Expected demand | -8 | -6 | 0 | -3 | 2 |
| Past employment | -5 | -4 | -1 | 2 | 7 |
| Expected employment | -7 | -2 | 5 | -3 | -10 |
| General outlook | -18 | -10 | -12 | -10 | -6 |
| Accommodation and food service activities (11%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 112 | 106 | 108 | 109 |
| Past activity | -6 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| Expected activity | -7 | 4 | -3 | 2 | -1 |
| Expected demand | -9 | 0 | -2 | 3 | 3 |
| Past employment | -4 | 5 | 6 | -1 | -8 |
| Expected employment | -5 | 4 | -7 | -9 | -4 |
| General outlook | -13 | -3 | -9 | -8 | -2 |
| Information and communication (26%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 102 | 105 | 103 | 103 |
| Past activity | 8 | -3 | 1 | 5 | 22 |
| Expected activity | 9 | 8 | 15 | 10 | 9 |
| Expected demand | 10 | 4 | 9 | 14 | 3 |
| Past employment | 6 | -2 | 7 | 5 | 5 |
| Expected employment | 11 | 13 | 10 | 7 | 9 |
| General outlook | 0 | 8 | 11 | 8 | 4 |
| Real estate activities (11%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 103 | 105 | 102 | 102 |
| Past activity | 7 | 5 | 15 | 8 | 7 |
| Expected activity | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 6 |
| Expected demand | 2 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
| Past employment | 3 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 5 |
| Expected employment | 3 | 4 | 8 | -1 | 7 |
| General outlook | -3 | 0 | -2 | -3 | -7 |
| Professional, scientific and technical activities (24%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 112 | 111 | 109 | 109 |
| Past activity | -1 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 11 |
| Expected activity | -2 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 4 |
| Expected demand | -5 | 7 | 6 | -1 | 4 |
| Past employment | 1 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 6 |
| Expected employment | 1 | 15 | 16 | 7 | 11 |
| General outlook | -8 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 1 |
| Administrative and support service activities (18%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 104 | 102 | 104 | 107 |
| Past activity | 6 | -4 | 5 | 1 | 12 |
| Expected activity | 5 | 11 | 6 | 11 | 11 |
| Expected demand | 4 | 12 | 6 | 7 | 9 |
| Past employment | 9 | -4 | -3 | 3 | 15 |
| Expected employment | 8 | 8 | 8 | 13 | 17 |
| General outlook | -3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 8 |
- The figures in parentheses indicate the weights used to aggregate the sub-sector balances of opinion.
- *Composite indicator: average since 1989 (2006 for road transport); balances of opinion: average since 1988 (2006 for road transport)
- Source: INSEE, monthly business survey in services.
In road freight transport, the business climate has slightly bounced back
In road freight transport, the business climate indicator has gained one point. At 105, it stands above its average. The balances on general outlook, past activity, expected demand and past employment have sharply improved. In contrast, that on expected employment has strongly declined again and moved below its average.
In accommodation and food services, the business climate has improved again
In accommodation and food services, the climate has gained one point. At 109, it stands well above its average. The balances on general outlook, on past activity and on expected employment have recovered whereas those on expected activity and past employment have deteriorated, the latter falling below its average level.
The climate is stable in information-communication
In information-communication, the business climate is stable at 103, above its average. The strong improvement in the balance on past activity is offset by the marked decline in that on expected demand. The balances on expected demand and employment stand below their average.
In real estate activities, the climate is stable, above its average
In real estate activities, the business climate is stable. At 102, it is above its long-term average. The decrease in the balances on general outlook and activity is offset by the increase in those on expected demand and on employment, in particular expected employment.
In professional, scientific and technical activities, the business climate remains very favourable
The business climate in professional, scientific and technical activities remains high (109), well above its average. The sharp increase in the balances on past activity, expected demand and expected employment is offset by the decrease in those on general outlook, expected activity and past employment. All balances are well above their average.
The climate has sharply improved in administrative and support services
In administrative and support services, the climate has gained three points. At 107, it stands well above its average. This sharp improvement is due to the strong increase in the balances of opinion on past activity and on past employment and to a lesser extent, to the increase in those on general outlook, on expected employment and on expected demand. All balances are well above their average.
For further information
A balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentage of “increase” responses and the percentage of “decrease” responses.
Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of the web page of this publication.
Next issue: 26 March 2020 at 8:45 am
Documentation
Abbreviated methodology (pdf,185 Ko)
Pour en savoir plus
A balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentage of “increase” responses and the percentage of “decrease” responses.
Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of the web page of this publication.
Next issue: 26 March 2020 at 8:45 am
Time series : Economic outlook surveys – Services
