22 January 2020

2020- n° 17

In January 2019, the business climate in wholesale trade has deteriorated Bi-monthly survey of wholesaling - January 2020

According to the managers surveyed in January 2020, the business climate in wholesale trade has deteriorated but remains favourable. The composite indicator has lost two points and stands at 104, above its long-term average (100). The November 2019 business climate indicator has been revised upwards by one point as a result of the integration of late business answers.

In January 2020, the balance of opinion on past sales as a whole and the balance on sales abroad have both fallen sharply, but remain somewhat above their average. The balance on total past sales has contributed the most to the deterioration in the wholesale trade’s business climate. Fewer wholesalers than in November have reported their volume of received merchandise to be larger than usual. The corresponding balance has fallen down to its mean, whereas the balance on merchandise received from abroad has been stable and above its average.

After a year of almost continuous rise, the balance on general business outlook has plummeted, but remains above its average level. The balance of opinion related to ordering intentions is stable above its average, even though the balance on intentions to order from abroad has slightly declined. Finally the balance of opinion related to shipments abroad has receded slightly, while remaining above average.

The balance of opinion on past employment carries on its recovery and now stands well beyond its average. The one related to expected workforce has increased a little and remains much higher than its average.

In January, the balances of opinion regarding selling prices, past as well as expected, have slightly risen after a vigorous rebound in November 2019. But they still lie well below their long-term average.

In January, hardly fewer wholesalers than in November have considered their cash flow situation to be favourable. The related balance stays above its average.

The turning-point indicator remains in the area indicating a favourable short-term economic situation.

In the agricultural wholesale sector, the business managers’ balance of opinion on total past sales has hardly recovered and stays below its long term average. The balances of opinion related to sales abroad and to merchandise received from abroad have risen again, up to levels above their mean. However, the balance related to ordering intentions has fallen again.

In the food wholesale sector, the balances of opinion on past sales, taken in total or solely abroad, have receded sharply and fallen below their long-term average. Nevertheless, the balance regarding merchandise received from abroad has improved strongly while the balance on ordering intentions has picked up more moderately.

In the wholesale of household goods, the balances of opinion on past sales, be it abroad or not, have fallen back but remain above their average level. The balances on merchandise received from abroad and on ordering intentions have decreased, hinting that the wholesalers’ volume of supply would decline over the next few months.

In this sector, for which balances of opinion fluctuate severely, the balance related to total past sales has plummeted under its long-term average. The balances on sales abroad and on merchandise received from abroad have declined as well. However, the wholesalers’ balance of opinion on their ordering intentions has recovered noticeably.

In the wholesale trade for other industrial capital goods, the balances on past sales, in total and abroad, have diminished strongly. Compared to this, the balance of opinion on merchandise received from abroad has receded more slightly. Thus, the balance related to stocks has leaped and reflects a tendency to storage. The balance on ordering intentions has edged up and remains above its average.

The opinion of wholesalers of other specialised goods has deteriorated clearly on nearly every topic: the volume of past sales and of sales abroad, merchandise received from abroad, and the level of stocks. The balances regarding sales abroad, merchandise received from abroad and stocks have dropped below their average. Only the balance related to ordering intentions is steady, above its average.